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Bill Metzker's avatar

My initial thought is that there’s enough right to go all around. The guy seems right on some things, wrong on others, and speculating the rest of the time. I was 11 years old when I first saw Europe in 1959. Much of London hadn’t been rebuilt and some areas looked like long-term construction zones. Paris, not so much. I didn’t see enough German cities, which means they were off the tour for whatever reason—still bombed out a bit?—but I recall Cologne and the scaffolding wrapping the the cathedral to repair the damage inflicted by Allied bombs. A street in Genoa was being finished and I remember photos of Il Duce hanging from a light post or something. That was the tourist zone. People talked at length of their worry that Italy was about to go Communist.

All of which to say is that I still don’t have a sense of how much of Europe was destroyed. My guess is that Germany and Poland were even dystopic in places, but as we now see Ukraine getting hammered, I have to appreciate that Europe was as bad, if not worse. That being the case, the U.S. could not hold back and do nothing and just hope it would all get built back better somehow. Point being, I guess, that certainly there were mercantile reasons for the Marshall Plan and subsequent trade deals, but there was also a fear of Soviet hegemony, which probably had both idealistic and mercantilistic concerns.

We had a housekeeper for a couple of years in the late 1950s, Lisa Ginschel, who was a DP from Germany. Her son was about my age and spoke almost no English. She was mortified of Russians, though. My wife and I had a dear friend from Baden-Baden in the early 1980s, and she likewise was mortified of Russians, saying that most Germans were as well.

Full circle, is Zeihan right? If he misses what I witnessed as late as 1959-Europe, and it seems to me he did based on your contrapuntals, then no. But some of his points are worth pondering fairly seriously.

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R Hodsdon's avatar

Claire, you wrote, "Is Peter Zeihan right?" (about the imminent collapse of globalization and thus the end of civilization as we have known it) and then gave us a summary of his major arguments. , You agree with some and disagree with others, but in the end you conclude (if I understand you correctly) that although he is wrong on many of his assumptions, he could be right-ish because, after all, globalization is a complex system of inter-dependent sub-systems, and the collapse of one critical "node" can disrupt the smooth operation of the whole.

I have a less well-informed, unsophisticated way of answering the question you pose, based only on watching Peter Zeihan's video (haven't read the books; don't plan to). He is NOT right, because the theorhetical underpinnings of his theory are weak -- they only explain some things, they are not a theory of everything.

While his ideas are entertaining and thought-provoking, he suffers from the usual shortcomings of know-it-all didacticism: like many Brilliant People, he's so blinded by his brilliant insights he overlooks the boring little mundane factors that make a huge difference in how things ACTUALLY turn out (as opposed to the way the Brilliant Person's thought experiments say it OUGHT to turn out). If evidence is needed to buttress this assertion, I would cite how the poor morale and training affected performance of the Russian troops invading Ukraine upended the "conventional wisdom" that the UKR forces were doomed and the RUS would roll over them in a matter of days. Okay, I admit that I was one who fell for the CW, but then I recognize that am not a guy with brilliant insights. Of course, as a fellow with books to sell, Zeihan needs to have the courage of his convictions, so on the whole I think it is very helpful to our understanding of how things work that we consider his theories carefully, as you have, Claire (thank you).

I have another quibble with him: much as I agree that the US has been the essential superpower in post-WWII global affairs -- the present-day world would be a very different place, absent US leadership -- I think Zeihan affords American policy too much agency in affecting world affairs, and far too often our policy is made by ill-informed people in power, people all too likely to be careerists telling superiors what they think they want to hear, or political appointees in thrall to a particular political ideology. (the Dulles bros come to mind, or the innumerable Republican political zealots who infested the American administration of post-invasion Iraq).

Personally I find it thought-provoking and entertaining to listen to a very knowledgeable guy like Zeihan, who comes up with an fresh and appealing theory that seems to explain why things have happened the way they did (or the way the Brilliant Person portrays them), and then to uses theory as a kind of Automatic Turk prediction machine to foresee what will happen in future as a result. But human behavior is not so predictable as are physical laws of nature, and BP's do love to expound on their theories. And I certainly welcome hearing them.

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