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Jonathan Blake's avatar

Regarding the comment "The good times are over and Queen Elizabeth’s reign was the best it will be."

Churchill, as usual, said it best in the coronation speech: ‘That it should be a golden age of art and letters we can only hope but it is certain that if a true and lasting peace can be achieved … an immense and undreamed-of prosperity, with culture and leisure even more widely spread can come … to the masses of the people.’

We are immeasurably lucky indeed to have lived in the second Elizabethan Era.

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Treeamigo's avatar

IMO, the question about any long-term forecaster is not whether they are ultimately right - as conclusions are dependent upon many intermediate steps/events and policy makers have time to adjust to new events as they happen, but whether they highlight risks/possibilities one has not considered or weighted highly enough. Decision-makers like to hear from people who think differently (and make them think differently), even if our ultimate forecasts (several steps down the road) will diverge.

Thought processes and insights are often more useful than the ultimate forecast- or at least more likely to be of value as the odds of a long-term forecast being exactly correct is remote.

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