Global Eyes
Everything you need to know about the world, plus a little bit more.
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We always finish Global Eyes with The Daily Bat—a selection of the day’s most exhilarating Russian propaganda—and The CCP is Dismayed by You, in which the media organs of the Chinese Communist Party express their outstandingly sincere concern for the West’s well-being.
Then, to lift your spirits, we finish with the Animal of the Day.
Enjoy—and welcome. We’re sincerely glad you’ve found us.1
UKRAINE
Russia stole land and grain. Now it’s taking timber, Ukraine says. Officials say acres of forest have been cut down for commercial gain or to fortify defensive positions:
Acres of forests have been cut down for commercial gain or to fortify defensive positions without paying compensation, according to Ukrainian government agencies and forestry experts. Satellite images show swaths of former woodland left barren since the invasion. The alleged expropriation is the latest sign of how the war has inflicted widespread damage on Ukraine’s natural resources, and offered some Russians and their affiliates an opportunity to make money. …
The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end this year:
No peace talks between Kyiv and the Kremlin are expected in 2023, according to a sensitive US government document that was part of a trove leaked online. The intelligence assessment indicates that such negotiations remain unlikely even if Ukraine manages to retake a substantial amount of territory and inflict significant losses on Russia.
Washington and Kyiv sought to downplay the massive leak of classified documents:
… Mykhailo Podolyak, a top advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said the documents are “based on a large amount of fictitious information” and had nothing to do with Ukraine’s real military plans.
Ukrainians appalled by video of Russians beheading a Ukrainian soldier:
Ukraine was in shock on Wednesday, April 12, after what appeared to be an extremely violent video was posted on pro-Russian social media the previous evening, which appears to show a Russian soldier beheading a Ukrainian soldier. In the 90-second clip, a man in fatigues wearing a yellow armband, characteristic of Ukrainian soldiers, screams before another man in camouflage clothing and a white cloth band on his leg—commonly associated with the Russian army and pro-Russian fighters—beheads him with a knife. A third man then brandishes a bulletproof vest presumably belonging to the victim. The authenticity of the video could not be independently confirmed, and its date and location remain unclear. The abundant vegetation suggests that it may have been recorded several months ago, during the summer.
A few days earlier, on April 8, another video emerged on pro-Russian social media, reported by CNN. According to the news channel, it was shot more recently, near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. This has been the scene of violent fighting for several months, involving Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group. The video appears to show the decapitated bodies of two Ukrainian soldiers lying on the ground next to a destroyed military vehicle. Behind the camera, a voice says in Russian that the armored vehicle “was blown up by a mine.” Obviously referring to the bodies lying on the ground, the voice continues, laughing, “They killed them. They came up to them and cut their heads off.”
Zelensky urges world leaders to act over POW beheading video:
Ukraine’s president said the world could not ignore the “evil” footage … “How easily these beasts kill. We are not going to forget anything. Neither are we going to forgive the murderers,” Zelensky said. “There will be legal responsibility for everything. The defeat of terror is necessary.” …
In a video address on Wednesday, Zelensky said the apparent execution was part of a grim pattern, seen in Russian-occupied areas including Bucha, in the Kyiv region, where invading soldiers tortured and killed hundreds of civilians. “There are no people for them. A son, a brother, a husband, someone’s child. This is a video of Russia just trying to make that the new norm. Such a habit of destroying life,” he said. Zelensky continued: “This is not an accident. This is not an episode. This was the case earlier. This was the case in Bucha. Thousands of times. Everyone must react. Every leader.”
Claire—exactly so. Russia is now ISIS with nuclear weapons.
Will US support for Ukraine outlast Biden? China hawks in Washington rattle nerves in Europe:
In public, top European dignitaries have shown an unflappable confidence in US leadership on Ukraine and as the anchor of the NATO alliance. Behind closed doors, they’re growing increasingly uneasy over whether skepticism of America’s European allies from top Republican presidential contenders such as twice-impeached and recently indicted former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will take root in US foreign policy, and whether the brewing new Cold War with China will sap American political focus and military resources from Ukraine and the European theater.
Poland has applied for formal approval from Berlin to deliver several MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, Germany’s Defense Ministry confirmed.
RUSSIA
New leaked documents suggest broad infighting among Russian officials. The additional documents also suggest the breach of American intelligence agencies could contain far more material than previously believed:
The depth of the infighting inside the Russian government appears broader and deeper than previously understood, judging from a newly discovered cache of classified intelligence documents that has been leaked online. The additional documents, which did not surface in a 53-page set that came to wide public attention online last week, paint a picture of the Russian government feuding over the count of the dead and wounded in the Ukraine war, with the domestic intelligence agency accusing the military of obscuring the scale of casualties that Russia has suffered.
The new batch, which contains 27 pages, reinforces how deeply American spy agencies have penetrated nearly every aspect of the Russian intelligence apparatus and military command structure. It also shows that the breach of American intelligence agencies could contain far more material than previously understood.
★ Why Putin won’t use nuclear weapons. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis makes the case for giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to the end the war:
Confusion and indifference but no panic as Russia tightens draft rules:
Russian men of conscription age have greeted a law tightening military draft procedures with what appeared to be widespread confusion and indifference despite warnings that the changes—approved this week by the Russian parliament—could amount to backdoor martial law and facilitate a second wave of mobilization. …
While the law was passed during Russia’s annual spring draft and appears to target those required to undergo a year of compulsory military service, experts warned the changes will also give the Kremlin the tools to send more men to the frontlines in Ukraine where a Russian spring offensive has yet to achieve significant gains.
★ My only regret is failing to convince people of the danger Putin posed. Ahead of a verdict expected next week, Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza, who has been put on trial for treason in Moscow for his anti-war comments, gave an address to the court:
… In their closing statements, defendants usually ask the court to acquit them. For a person who did not commit a crime, the only fair verdict would be an acquittal. But I ask nothing of this court. I know its verdict. I knew it a year ago when I saw people in black uniforms and black masks running after my car in the rearview mirror. This is the price of not remaining silent in Russia today.
But I also know that the day will come when the darkness over our country will dissipate. When black will be called black and white will be called white. When it will officially be recognized that two times two is four, when the war will be called a war and the usurper a usurper, and when those who began it rather than those who tried to prevent it will be seen as criminals.
As inevitably as spring follows even the harshest winter, that day will come. And when it does, our society will open its eyes and be horrified to discover the terrible crimes that have been committed in its name. From this realization, the long, difficult, but vital path toward recovery, Russia’s restoration, and its return to the community of civilized nations will begin.
The number of young workers in Russia has fallen to a historic low. (In Russian.)
In 2022, the number of employees under the age of 35 decreased by 1.3 million people, according to Rosstat data. Especially diminished from the labor market are Russians aged 25-29. Among the reasons are demographic aging and emigration.
★ Seeing Russian fascism clearly:
Fascism is a nuclear weapon of a word and, like all nuclear weapons, is best left undetonated. Saying Russia is a modern fascist regime can make you appear ridiculous and dangerous in equal measure. You invite ridicule because you sound like student politicians who dismiss everything they don’t like as “fascism”. … And yet delve into Russian ultra-nationalism and confront its self-pity and bombast, its violence and chauvinism, its machismo and imperialism, and, if you can’t describe it as “fascistic,” you are hard-pressed to know what other word will do. Violence is at the heart of fascism and at the heart of today’s Russia. The racial contempt of ordinary Russian soldiers for Ukrainians as they meet out violence is terrifying. …
This week the surviving residents of a village near Chernihiv in northern Ukraine took Volodymyr Zelensky, together with German Vice Chancellor Robert Gabeck and Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejcinovic Buric, on a tour of the concentration camp the Russians had held them in. After they took control, the Russians killed about 10 people on the first day to instil fear. They rounded up everyone left alive and put them in a basement. There were almost 400 people packed into 170 square meters. “There was not enough oxygen in the basement. That’s why elderly died. First, they would go insane. Then, they would scream. And then they would go quiet. And then in the morning they would not wake up. And their neighbors simply would carry them out to an oven.” … No negotiated peace with Russia is worth the paper it is written on because of the fascistic nature of Russian nationalism.
Putin is not as secure as he seems:
The war has thrust Russia into a period of pervasive unpredictability in which no one feels safe and it is impossible for policymakers to engage in even short-term planning. Recently leaked recordings of a conversation between the famous Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin and the former senator Farhad Akhmedov showed that both were enraged at Russia’s leadership and believed the country’s policymakers lacked the capacity to make critical decisions. They also alleged that several of Russia’s most powerful people, including the leader of its National Guard, were plotting against the country’s defense minister. Their statements are representative of what Russian elites say to one another when they think no one is listening, and they suggest high levels of discontent.
A significant military escalation could aggravate these sentiments and dramatically complicate Putin’s ability to maintain domestic control. If Moscow carries out further mobilizations, something the government is trying to avoid, it will stir up more social anxiety with unpredictable consequences. If Russia faces additional setbacks, Putin will have to deal with escalating criticism. Both situations could prompt him to cancel elections, implement elements of a military dictatorship, and purge the elites in a bid to shore up his security. Relatedly, they could prompt Russia’s elites to challenge the regime. The Kremlin may be confident that Putin will win reelection by a commanding margin and right now, that is the most likely outcome. But the war means Putin is becoming more vulnerable than most people think.
Russian propagandist suggests Finland, Poland, Baltics want to come back to “Mother Russia.” Solovyov harked back to the era of the Russian monarchy in asking whether these countries’ real hope was for “Mother Russia to bring us back home?”
Russian state TV touts Marjorie Taylor Greene as Donald Trump's replacement.
EUROPE
★ Here’s Emmanuel Macron’s already-infamous interview in Les Echos—wherein the president of France, having offended and alienated everyone at home, determines to apply the same diplomatic touch abroad. At this point, it’s impossible to avoid the conclusion that Macron has the political touch of death. We’ll reproduce a large part of the interview because only parts of it have been reported in English.
Q: After your dialogue with President Xi Jinping, what can we really expect from China on Ukraine?
Macron: I think China’s observations are the same as ours, namely that now is the moment for military action. Ukrainians are resisting and we’re help them. There’s no room for negotiations, even if they’re prepared, if necessary, to establish the milestones. This is the purpose of our dialogue with China: to establish common approaches. One: support for the principles of the United Nations Charter. Two: a clear reminder on nuclear weapons, and it is up to China to draw the appropriate conclusions about the fact that President Putin deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus a few days after making a commitment not to do so. Three: a very clear reminder on humanitarian law and the protection of children. And four: the desire for a negotiated and lasting peace.
Q: Since the Chinese are obsessed with their confrontation with the United States, especially on the issue of Taiwan, don’t they tend to see Europe as a pawn between the two blocs?
Macron: As Europeans, our concern is our unity.2 It’s been mine forever. We show China that we are united, and this is the meaning of this joint visit [to China] with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The Chinese are also concerned about their unity, and Taiwan, from their point of view, is a component of it. It is important to understand how they reason.
The question Europeans must ask is: Do we have an interest in accelerating the conflict over Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think we Europeans should follow on this and adapt to the American rhythm and the Chinese overreaction. Why should we go at the pace chosen by others? At some point, we must ask ourselves about our own interests. At what pace does China itself want to go? Does it want to have an offensive and aggressive approach? The risk is a self-fulfilling prophecy. We Europeans must wake up. Our priority is not to adapt to the agenda of everyone else in every region of the world.
For Europe, the trap would be that just as it clarifies its strategic position, when it’s more strategically autonomous than it was before Covid, it gets caught up in a global disruption and crises that are not ours. If the duopoly’s conflagration accelerates, we’ll have neither the time nor the means to finance our own strategic autonomy, and we’ll become vassals—whereas we could be the third [global] pole, if we have a few years to build it.
Q. Since a growing number of European countries are turning more than ever to the United States to ensure their security, does European strategic autonomy still make sense?
Macron: Of course! This is the great paradox of the current situation. Five years after my speech at the Sorbonne on this subject,3 almost everything has been done. We won the ideological battle, from a Gramscian point of view, if I may say so. Five years ago, they said European sovereignty did not exist. When I mentioned telecoms components, who was concerned about it? At the time, we were telling countries outside of Europe that we believed there was a major sovereignty issue and that we were going to adopt laws to regulate this, which we did in 2018. I note that the market share of non-European telecoms equipment suppliers in France is significantly reduced, which is not the case for all our neighbors.
We also planted the seed of the idea of a European defense—a more united Europe that issued collective debt during Covid. Five years ago, strategic autonomy was a chimera. Today, everyone is talking about it. This is a major change. We have equipped ourselves with instruments on defense and industrial policy. There are many advances: the Chips Act, the Net Zero Industry Act, and the Critical Raw Material Act. These European laws are the building blocks of our strategic autonomy. We have started to set up battery, hydrogen components, and electronics factories. And we’ve endowed ourselves with defensive instruments that were completely contrary to European ideology only three or four years ago! We now have very effective protection instruments.
The subject about which we must be particularly vigilant is this: The war in Ukraine is accelerating the demand for defense equipment. However, the European defense industry can’t meet all its needs and remains very fragmented, which has led some countries temporarily to turn to American or even Asian suppliers. Faced with this reality, we must increase our strength.
Strategic autonomy must be Europe’s fight. On critical matters, we do not want to depend on others. The day you no longer have a choice about energy, about how to defend yourself, about social networks, about artificial intelligence—because you no longer have the infrastructure—is the day you’re pushed out of history for a long time. …
Q: The paradox is that the American grip on Europe is stronger than ever ...
Macron: We’ve certainly increased our energy dependence on the United States, but we’ve followed the logic of diversification, because we were far too dependent on Russian gas. Today, it’s a fact that we’re more dependent on the United States, Qatar and others. But this diversification was necessary.
For the rest, lasting effects must be taken into account. For too long, Europe has failed to build the strategic autonomy for which I am fighting. Today, the ideological battle is won and the milestones are set. This has a cost, it’s normal. It’s like French re-industrialization: We won the ideological battle, we led the reforms, they are hard, we are starting to see the results, but at the same time, we’re paying the piper for what we’ve failed to do this past twenty years. That’s politics! It takes time. We must keep at it. This is the price for changing mentalities.
Q: The fact remains that the United States is conducting, with the Inflation Reduction Act, a policy that you have even described as aggressive ...
When I went to Washington last December, I opened that subject, some even accused me doing it aggressively. But Europe reacted, and before the end of the first quarter of 2023, in three months, we’ll have a response, with three European laws. We will have our own European IRA. Acting with such speed is a small revolution.
The key to less dependence on the Americans is, first and foremost, strengthening our defense industry, agreeing on common standards. We all spend a lot of money, but we can’t have ten times the number of standards as the Americans! Then we have to accelerate the fight for nuclear and renewable energy in Europe. Our continent does not produce fossil fuels. There’s a connection among re-industrialization, climate, and sovereignty. It’s the same fight. It’s a fight for nuclear, renewable, and European energy sobriety. It will be the big fight of the next ten to fifteen years.
Strategic autonomy means assuming that we and the United States have similar views, but whether it’s about Ukraine, our relationship with China, or sanctions, we have a European strategy. We don’t want to enter the logic of bloc-against-bloc. To the contrary, we must “de-risk” our model, not depend on others, while maintaining wherever possible the strong integration of our value chains.
The paradox would be even though we’ve put in place the elements of a real European strategic autonomy, we begin to follow American policy, out of a kind of panic reflex. To the contrary, the battles to be fought today consist, on the one hand, of accelerating our strategic autonomy, and on the other hand ensuring the financing of our economies. Let me take this opportunity to insist on one point: We must not depend on the extraterritoriality of the dollar.
Q: Is Joe Biden a more polite version of Donald Trump?
He’s attached to democracy, to fundamental principles, to the international system, and he knows and loves Europe. All of this is essential. On the other hand, he’s part of a bipartisan American logic that defines the American interest as priority No. 1 and China as priority No. 2. The rest is less important. Is that objectionable? No. But we have to integrate that [into our thinking].
Macron’s remarks shock European chancelleries. (In French.) The words of the French President show a great distancing from the United States. In Poland, Germany, and the Baltic countries, many bitter voices reaffirm the importance of the transatlantic link:
Emmanuel Macron’s interview with Les Echos, given on his plane back from China, triggered almost as virulent a reaction in Europe and the United States as when, in 2019, he declared NATO “brain dead.” It has sowed great confusion in many European capitals, particularly on the issue of Taiwan and the possibility of its invasion by Beijing.
His remarks that Europe ran the risk of being “caught up in crises that are not ours” were particularly badly received. … Many chancelleries have interpreted Emmanuel Macron’s desire for “strategic autonomy” as an imprudent distancing from the United States.
For the Baltic countries and Poland, in particular, i.e. Kiev’s most determined supporters in its war against Russia, the timing was particularly bad, when Ukrainian forces could soon run out of ammunition and American assistance is therefore becoming particularly crucial.
From Tallinn to Warsaw, they are asking: If Europe isn’t interested in Taiwan, a core interest for Washington, why would the White House continue to be involved in a conflict on the margins of the EU? “If Macron speaks on behalf of Europeans, and their position now is not to choose their side between the United States and China over Taiwan, perhaps we shouldn’t take sides either and (let them manage) Ukraine,” said Republican Senator Marco Rubio.
The Polish Prime Minister, who has been visiting the United States since Tuesday, strongly affirmed that the alliance with Washington is “an absolute foundation” of European security even before boarding his plane. “Some Western leaders dream of cooperation with everyone—with Russia and with some powers in the Far East,” Mateusz Morawiecki charged, referring to Macron’s earlier comments that he was eager to avoid Vladimir Putin’s “humiliation.”
Since the beginning of the war, the countries on the eastern edge of the EU have criticized the French President for his leniency towards Moscow. They are bitter that the “Western” countries did not listen sooner to their warnings about Russian imperialism, of which they have firsthand experience.
In Germany, too, where a very large part of the political class remains attached to their close proximity to Washington, reactions flared. Norbert Röttgen, a Conservative MP and expert in foreign policy, argued on Twitter that Europe must “become more independent, not from the United States, but in partnership with our transatlantic allies.” Cartoons flourished in the German press, as did incendiary editorials arguing in essence that Emmanuel Macron, not content to turn France upside down, is sowing discord in the Western camp.
In Brussels, at the Commission as well as in the European Parliament, they are wondering about Emmanuel Macron’s invitation to Ursula von der Leyen to accompany him to Beijing. Last week, it was perceived positively as the Elysée’s desire to give a European dimension to the redefinition of the relationship with a more aggressive China. At the end of the trip, they are wondering, in European circles, if Emmanuel Macron has not rather exploited the presence of the President of the European Commission so better to pose as spokesman for the EU. One Brussels diplomat emphasized: “The assertive speech that Ursula von der Leyen made ten days ago in Brussels with regard to China was coordinated with the member states and presented to the ambassadors of the twenty-seven.”4
Je ne regrette rien: Macron defends his comments about not being a US “vassal” over Taiwan. France has no lessons to learn from anyone, the president said:
French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday insisted that France's dispatch of a frigate to Taiwan showed its commitment to regional security, but doubled down on his remarks that France would not act as a “vassal” by following US hardliners into a conflict over the democratic island.
“Being allies doesn't mean being vassals ... Just because we are allies, just because we do things together that we decide to do, doesn’t mean that we don’t have the right to think on our own and that we will follow the most extreme people in a country that is allied with us,” Macron said during a joint press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on a visit to the Netherlands. “When we look at the facts, France has no lessons to learn from anyone, not in the Ukrainian theater, nor the Sahel theater, nor the Taiwan theater,” Macron said.
Answering repeated questions on these comments, the French president said his position was “very clear” and argued that his comment didn’t trigger a backlash from the White House. “The position of France and the Europeans is the same on Taiwan. We are in favor of the status quo and this policy is constant, it has not changed, it is the One China policy and the search for a peaceful settlement of the issue,” Macron said, noting that “this position has always been compatible with the role of allies.”
While defending Macron, France’s Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire on Wednesday accused Washington of applying double standards when it comes to trade with China. “Some, for example in the United States, say that we should completely decouple Western economies, American or European, from the Chinese economy. What I see is that the volume of trade between China and the United States has never been so high .... we are asking Europe to give up trade that has increased between the United States and China. We don’t want to be the village idiots, who get screwed and let other powers trade with China while we no longer have the right to do so.”
Claire—a good deal of this bitterness and fear of “getting screwed” surely devolves from the AUKUS fiasco. The protectionism of the Inflation Reduction Act doesn’t help.
★ Macron puts business before politics. The China trip was a bonanza for the French economy:
French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent state visit to China has been sharply criticized for its failure to deliver progress on peace in Ukraine but perhaps that wasn’t truly atop Macron’s Beijing agenda. The high-profile trip did, however, deliver agreements to expand Airbus’ and other French companies’ business in China—a significant development for France’s economy and its independent diplomacy and a notable setback for Boeing and US efforts to hamstring China.
Macron’s entourage also included executives of Electricité de France, water and waste management specialist Suez SA, shipping company CMA CGM, rolling stock and railway equipment manufacturer Alstom, cosmetics firm L’Oréal and many others [all of whom signed lucrative deals].
Macron in Beijing. Why China-watchers need to take a deep breath:
The reaction to Macron’s comments betrays a lack of understanding of long-term French policy and the concept of strategic autonomy, and the subtleties of French realism. … France, to be clear, is not pro-China. Of this, recent French defense policy documents leaves no doubt. France’s recent draft Military Programming Law, for example, which Macron’s government released this month, speaks of China threatening to destabilize the Indo-Pacific, while reiterating concern for the security of France’s extensive overseas territories in that theater. The law, like every other French national security document or statement of military policy, stresses the importance of the NATO alliance and France’s strategic cooperation with the US. It is for this reason that the French and American militaries routinely train together: Interoperability with the US is a French strategic priority.
…. Washington should see Macron’s efforts as an opportunity: If Macron wants to brand France as an alternative to joining the American block, perhaps counties such as Indonesia and Vietnam that fear China but for various reasons aren’t eager to rally to Uncle Sam might embrace a third option that most definitely is not pro-China yet might be perceived by China as less hostile and less antagonistic.
Claire—this is true, but doesn’t diminish Macron’s astonishing obtuseness in making these comments.
Macron’s “balanced” immigration bill fails to win over France’s right or left. Proposals in the French government’s reform include letting undocumented migrants regularize their legal status if they are engaged in certain trades:
The new immigration proposal, the second of Macron’s presidency, seeks to find a balance between an iron fist and an open-doors policy. The idea was to obtain the support of both the left and the right in the National Assembly. The result, as things stand, has been quite the opposite: Both wings oppose the reform. The right believes it is too lax while the left considers it repressive. Having lost his parliamentary majority in last June’s legislative elections, Macron is finding it hard to drum up enough votes to see it passed.
Claire—perhaps you are sensing a theme in Macron’s style.
Poland’s Morawiecki plays Europe’s anti-Macron in Washington. The Polish PM is stressing that Warsaw is Washington’s crucial European ally.
In contrast to the French president … the Polish leader is underlining the critical importance of the alliance between America and Europe, not least because his country is one of Kyiv’s strongest allies in the war with Russia. “Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” he said before flying to Washington.
Energy in Europe: Peter Zeihan argues that Europe dodged a bullet this year by shutting down industry in Germany, frantically tapping the global market for LNG (and paying as much as nine times the usual price), China’s Covid crisis (which dampened their demand for energy), and good luck in the form of the warmest winter on record. But none of this is sustainable:
Berlin seeks to recruit skilled labor from Africa. For years, many Germans were frightened by the idea of economic immigrants from Africa. Now, though, Berlin has begun to proactively recruit them. It is a drastic change from a history of skepticism:
The Ghanaian branch of the European Center for Jobs, Migration, and Development is likely the best place possible to appreciate the 180-degree shift that Germany’s immigration policy has recently undergone. The center has existed since 2017, and until February 2023, the message has always been: “Why not try your luck here in Ghana? Migration to Europe can be risky.” Furthermore, targeted offers were intended to make it easier for Ghanaians already in Germany to return to their home country. That message, though, changed earlier this month. …
Germany’s last three active nuclear power plants will be permanently shut down later this week. Originally scheduled for the end of 2022, the shutdown was postponed until April 15 due to the energy crisis caused by the conflict in Ukraine. However, a recent decision by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has put an end to a coalition dispute between the Greens and the Liberal Democratic Party.
Related: Robert Zubrin recently joined the Cosmopolicast to discuss his new book, The Case for Nukes.
The economies of China and Germany have become hugely intertwined. The dilemma: how to reposition Germany in the emerging geopolitical tensions with Beijing.
For Germany, China is the world’s most important trading partner. That’s followed by the United States, which has been catching up slightly in recent years. … That’s the dilemma facing German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on her current visit to China, where she will sound out opportunities for future cooperation while also trying to reduce Germany’s over-reliance on Beijing.
… But Germany has only a little room to maneuver, said Brzeski. “Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the first reflex was to say: ‘Now we have to focus more on friendly countries and end or reduce our dependency on China.’ But that is not possible at all.”
★ An epic of political incompetence—and redemption?
Brexit has proved to be an equal opportunity wrecking ball. It has not only damaged the country, lowering the rate of growth and distracting attention from mortal threats like obesity. It has damaged the party that hatched the scheme in the first place. It may only be April, but Tim Bale’s The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation is surely destined to win the prize as the most depressing book of the year. It is a portrait of a once-great party in the grip of monomania, a chronicle of wasted time and a catalogue of missed opportunities. Read it and weep.
Delicate diplomacy on show in Biden’s Belfast visit:
This was a presidential visit which required delicate diplomacy. US President Joe Biden’s task was to sum up the achievements of the 25 years since the Good Friday peace deal against a backdrop of all-too-frequent political instability in Belfast. He said the return of the power-sharing devolved government at Stormont was “critical” for Northern Ireland. But he followed that up by adding: “That’s a decision for you to make, not for me to make.”
The remark was simultaneously challenging and sensitive. The White House will have been aware that a tone which could have been interpreted as overbearing would have fueled unionist hostility towards a president who they have often criticized in the past.
Joe Biden makes gaffe as he confuses All Blacks rugby team with Black and Tans. (Of course.)
Biden dangles the prospect of more American investment to help fuel economic growth, especially if Belfast’s fractious politicians resolve a stalemate that has put their government on pause.
Turkey’s dams bring power and heartbreak. Turkish villages are vanishing as the country boosts its reliance on hydropower:
Standing on a hilltop overlooking the vast Kackar mountain range in Turkey’s northeastern Artvin province, residents of Yusufeli are slowly watching their town drown. Each day, the water rises an estimated 3 feet, erasing gardens, graveyards, and streets; then come houses, historical churches, and old mosques. Lifetimes of memories are making way for one of Turkey’s biggest hydroelectric dams, meant to tap the fast-running Coruh River. Its construction is an impressive feat but comes at a cost. One of 13 planned or built hydropower facilities on the Coruh, this one has uprooted approximately 7,400 residents in Yusufeli alone, locals say, as well as more people in surrounding villages. It is also uprooting the valley’s unique biodiversity—it’s home to 70 endemic plant species—and both residents and environmentalists have tried for years to fight the project, to no avail. “We’ve now seen a nature museum destroyed,” said Nese Karahan, the head of the Green Artvin Association.
Claire—for a more vivid sense of the catastrophic cultural destruction involved in these projects, see this article, which I wrote in 2013: Silencing the Djinns: A dam project threatens the world’s oldest city—and then I refer you again to our podcast with Robert Zubrin. The world’s oldest city is now gone.
Russia is winning in Georgia. America needs to get tough on Tbilisi:
As the United States and its NATO allies are focused on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, Russia’s efforts to bring another country into its orbit has gone largely unnoticed. Like many countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, Georgia has a population that is largely pro-EU and pro-NATO, an orientation that has only been strengthened in the years since Moscow’s 2008 invasion of the country, which left Russia occupying some 20 percent of its territory. Yet Georgia’s current leaders have not only failed to support Ukraine in its own struggle against Russian aggression. They have also ramped up anti-Western propaganda efforts, earned praise from Moscow for not joining Western sanctions and trade restrictions on Russia, and emulated a Russian-style crackdown on Georgia’s vibrant civil society. … It is time for the United States and its allies to sanction members of Georgia’s government.
ASIA
ASEAN denounces lethal regime airstrikes in Myanmar:
The attack on Tuesday morning targeted the remote Kanbalu township in Myanmar’s central Sagaing region. The official death toll from the strike remains unclear, though at least 100 deaths have been estimated by several sources. … The strike drew swift condemnation from the United Nations and Western powers. UN rights chief Volker Turk expressed horror at the deadly attack. A villager from the area reported that it was difficult to identify the dead because they had been dismembered.
Apple bets on India. iPhone production triples in India as China loses big time:
Apple’s production of various products in its Indian factories skyrocketed to a whopping US$7 billion in the last fiscal year. This has been an impressive feat given that most of Apple’s production facilities in India are still in their nascent stage. Apple has been moving its production facilities away from China and into India and Vietnam. Out of these two countries, Apple seems to favor India as it plans to have at least 25 percent of all Apple devices being manufactured to come out of India by 2030.
North Korean missile prompts Japan to issue brief evacuation warning:
North Korea fired an apparent long-range ballistic missile on Thursday—possibly of a stealthy solid-fuel variant—prompting Japan to issue a rare alert that was later rescinded for residents of Hokkaido to seek immediate shelter. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government had confirmed that “no missile had landed within Japanese territory” and that Tokyo was continuing to analyze the launch.
South Korea faces “Sophie’s choice” over sending weapons to Ukraine:
Leaked US confidential documents that purportedly show South Korea grappling with the US request to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine have renewed pressure on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s administration to supply lethal weapons to the war effort. Seoul has repeatedly said it would stick to its export control policy while finding other ways to support Ukraine, wary of the impact on trade with Russia and the potential that Moscow would retaliate by helping North Korea advance its nuclear and weapons program. …
But there is a limit to what an ally can do for Seoul when it is hit with economic and diplomatic revenge from Russia, said Kwon Ki-chang, former South Korean ambassador to Ukraine. Kwon said the Yoon administration should provide Kyiv with lethal weapons to take a stand against the invasion, but said Seoul faces real threats of retaliation. “South Korea now faces a Sophie’s choice of deciding which child to sacrifice,” he said. “Value-based diplomacy comes at a big toll for South Korea, but we need to step up to join the allies’ efforts for Ukraine.”
Bongbong’s make-or-break twin challenges. The Philippine president faces unappetizing choices:
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is in a bind, facing pressure on two critical fronts—his administration’s expanding alliance with the United States, and the need to observe international rules for attracting foreign investment. On both fronts, his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte who completed his six-year term with nearly 70 percent approval rating, looms large while the forces that helped Marcos win a landslide victory in the 2022 presidential election are beginning to feel uneasy over fundamental differences in policy and strategy. Ironically, neither of these problems is of Marcos’s making, notes a Marcos aficionado. “He inherited them from his predecessors and is now left with only unpalatable options.”
Blinken to seek strategic upgrade of US-Vietnam ties:
Before attending a Group of Seven foreign ministers’ meeting in Karuizawa, Nagano Prefecture, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be visiting Vietnam as Washington tries to elevate diplomatic ties with Hanoi and potentially pave the way for a visit by US President Joe Biden. Blinken’s first official visit to the Southeast Asian country is set for Friday through Sunday to mark the 10th anniversary of the US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership, which will include a groundbreaking ceremony for a new US Embassy compound in Hanoi.
North Korea facing another famine:
A country proudly in possession of atomic and hydrogen bombs, even intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting mainland US cities, and submarines that can launch missiles from below the ocean—surely North Korea is on the cusp of becoming a major military force. But it’s a country whose 25 million people are perpetually going hungry, with the regime running short on food to feed its populace. …
The last time the Pyongyang regime ran out of food, between 1995 and 2000, the regime under the second-generation Kim dynasty dictator allowed anywhere between half a million and three million people to perish in a famine that its propagandists euphemistically dubbed the “Years of Arduous March.” Now under the third-generation dictator Kim Jong Un, the regime looks concerned, but not enough to ask for emergency international aid. Just below the Demilitarized Zone in Seoul, the South Korean government is desperately fighting to stop the opposition party from forcing it to buy surplus rice crops from farmers obdurately refusing to cut down on their production.
Probably out of shame or pride, Kim last year breezily ignored a South Korean proposal to send 50,000 tons of rice aid to alleviate another looming famine. Instead, Kim appears hoping to ship munitions for Russia’s war against Ukraine in exchange for food from Putin … If that deal works out, a hungry North Korea is taking a major risk of extending the already lengthening Ukraine war.
★ For Japan, “Ukraine is the future of Asia.” Tokyo has abandoned decades of passivity and become a global strategic actor:
Three themes immediately stood out from the simultaneous presence of Xi in Moscow and Kishida in Kyiv. First, it pointed to East Asia’s active and growing role in shaping European security, perhaps for the first time since the medieval Mongol invasions. If China joins Iran in more actively supporting Russia in Ukraine, it would have profound implications for the course of the war—and the map of Eastern Europe. South Korea has emerged as a major weapons supplier to Poland, which is transforming into NATO’s most important military frontline state. The presence of the so-called AP4 (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea) at NATO meetings is becoming routine.
Second, Kishida underlined that China’s view of the war in Ukraine is not necessarily the view in the rest of Asia.
And third, the parallel visits exposed the hollowness of Xi’s claims to be a neutral peacemaker in Ukraine. Even as some European leaders, like French President Emmanuel Macron, have hailed Xi as Europe’s savior who can mediate an end to Russia’s war, Kishida’s meeting with Zelensky served to highlight the one-sided nature of Beijing’s so-called peace initiative in Ukraine.
The renminbi’s share of trade finance has doubled since the beginning of the Ukraine war:
Trade financing data from Swift, the international payments and financing platform, shows that the renminbi’s share by value of the market had risen from less than 2 percent in February 2022 to 4.5 percent a year later. Those gains put China’s currency in close contention with the euro, which accounts for 6 percent of the total. Both are, however, still a tiny fraction of the dollar’s share. …
The Chinese currency’s growing share of trade finance—in which lenders extend credit to facilitate the cross-border movement of goods—represents a boon for Beijing in its drive to accelerate renminbi internationalization and a stark challenge to the west, which has sought to use sanctions to bar major Russian financial institutions from utilizing Swift.
Renminbi replaces dollar as most traded currency in Russia. The renminbi surpassed the dollar in monthly trading volume in February for the first time, and the difference became more pronounced in March.
China’s neighbors are eyeing up renminbi as banking worries spread. Recent US banking turmoil is casting doubt on America’s ability to maintain its leadership of the global monetary system. Washington needs to take decisive steps to shore up confidence, including extending dollar credit lines to Asian countries:
The situation is far from irreversible, but Washington needs to halt the corrosion of trust by forging closer ties with countries that are willing to respect the United States-led rules-based financial system. … [T]he United States needs to pursue a twin-track policy. First, it should beef up its military presence in the region—something it is already doing via the AUKUS trilateral security pact (whereby the United States and UK will provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines) and a deal giving US forces access to four more military bases in the Philippines. Second, the Federal Reserve should add the central banks of its Indo-Pacific leading partners to the list of foreign central banks with which it has standing dollar swap lines, via which the banks can exchange their national currencies for dollars (and vice versa). Currently, the only participating bank in Asia is the Bank of Japan.
★ China’s struggles with lab safety carry danger of another pandemic:
Beijing has embarked on a major expansion of the country’s biotechnology sector, pouring billions of dollars into constructing dozens of laboratories and encouraging cutting-edge—and sometimes controversial—research in fields including genetic engineering, and experimental vaccines and therapeutics. The expansion is part of a government-mandated effort to rival or surpass the scientific capabilities of the United States and other Western powers. Yet, safety practices in China’s new labs have failed to keep pace …
Lab accidents happen everywhere, including in the United States, where illnesses and deaths caused by accidental infections have occurred, especially before the adoption of modern safety standards in the 1970s. But Chinese government reports, bolstered by interviews and statements by Western and Chinese officials and scientists who visited the facilities as recently as 2020, describe ongoing equipment problems and inadequate safety training that in some cases resulted in lab animals being illegally sold after being used in experiments, and contaminated lab waste being flushed into sewers. The problems are exacerbated, experts say, by a secretive, top-down bureaucracy that sets demanding goals while reflexively covering up accidents and discouraging any public acknowledgment of shortcomings.
The great re-shoring charade. China’s position in global supply chains strengthens as US pretends to “friend-shore” its imports:
Moving factories from China to Mexico is one of the few hot topics in an otherwise listless market, US investment bankers say. As American hostility to China rises, US corporations scramble to assure the public as well as inquisitive congressional committees that they are moving operations out of the Middle Kingdom to friendlier venues. It’s all a pantomime for political consumption. US imports from Mexico, Vietnam, India and other “friend-shoring” venues depend on imports of Chinese components, according to an Asia Times study of international trade data. China’s exports to non-Japan Asia and Latin America are booming, and Chinese companies are investing billions of dollars in Mexico. The charade permits American politicians to flaunt success in decoupling from China, and gives corporate leaders a chance to display their patriotism—while America’s indirect dependence on China’s industrial power increases.
AFRICA
★ Ghana became the first country to approve a new malaria vaccine:
The Oxford University-developed vaccine, called R21, showed 80 percent protection in early trials: Ghana’s regulators have seen data from a bigger study which apparently shows similar results … Malaria kills 600,000 people a year, the vast majority of them African children. African countries fell behind on Covid19 vaccination as rich countries monopolized supply, but R21 should be cheap—a couple of dollars a dose—and widely available: The Serum Institute of India is building a factory in Ghana’s capital Accra which will make 100 to 200 million doses a year.
★ A fragile peace in the wake of unspeakable horrors. The civil war in Tigray is over—for now. Up to 380,000 civilians are thought to have died, and tens of thousands of women raped. Can peace hold in the face of such atrocities?
Last year, 37,000 volunteers collected data for the Tigrayan Commission of Inquiry on Tigrai Genocide, initiated by the regional government, interviewing eyewitnesses and documenting massacres. Since March 2022, they have been collecting evidence of war crimes. Men have recounted to the investigators how they lost their daughters; women have told them of losing their sons, their husbands; children told of losing their fathers. Girls have described being raped. Joining the investigators is like being on a factory floor of horrors.
The commission argues that genocide is the proper word for what happened. A lot of the data gathered hasn’t yet been analyzed and the report is far from finished—and it’s unclear when it will be. But, the commission says, just the number of cases of sexualized violence is over 120,000. Observers from the outside also speak of genocide. “It is, of course, up to an international court to take verdict on this. But I would call it genocidal warfare,” says Ethiopian expert Kjetil Tronvoll from Oslo New University College. At some point, the analyst is convinced, a new war will break out again also for that reason.
Days of protests in Amhara turned violent, triggering a curfew to foil a potential security crisis. A relative state of calm has been observed in the last 24 hours—but will it last?
Federal government plans to integrate local defense forces into the police and national army has led to days of violent protests across Ethiopia’s northern Amhara region. There were reports of several people being shot at during protests held on Tuesday, which marked the sixth consecutive day of rallies against the government plans.
Ethiopian federal authorities have said that dissolving the Amhara Special Forces and other militia groups in Ethiopia’s eleven regions and integrating them into the federal army or police will create a strong and unified force in a country, where divisions have resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past fifty years. But the protesters in Amhara believe the government's plans would leave their state vulnerable to attack from other regions. This comes after the ASF played a crucial role in the government’s war against Tigrayan rebels—a conflict that killed thousands and displaced many more.5
China battles West for raw material of the future:
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is home to perhaps the largest lithium deposit in the world. China is eagerly trying to get its hands on the valuable resource, but the concession is controlled by an Australian company. Work-hungry locals are hoping the conflict will soon be resolved.
Kagame’s revenge. Why Rwanda’s leader is sowing chaos in Congo:
Rwanda’s unacknowledged exploits in Congo have long since ceased to be about self-defense or even revenge. They are intended, instead, to assert hegemonic dominance over Rwanda’s neighbors and guarantee access to the natural resources of a vast region that has been only fitfully governed since President Mobutu Sese Seko fled into exile in 1997. This is not the first time Rwanda has used its M23 proxies to plunge eastern Congo into chaos. In 2012, the group swept across the province of North Kivu and briefly took control of the region’s lakeside capital, Goma. The United States and other Western countries responded by slashing aid to Kigali and threatening to sanction Rwandan officials for aiding and abetting war crimes. This unified international response forced Rwanda to withdraw its support for the rebels, paving the way for their swift defeat.
Now the M23 is back, but Western countries have failed to penalize Kagame for his renewed meddling. Over the last decade, Rwanda has made itself indispensable by supplying disciplined peacekeepers to trouble spots across the continent and, increasingly, by offering to house asylum seekers Europe does not want. As a result, the M23 rebellion has been allowed to escalate, drawing Congo’s neighbors into the conflict and risking a wider regional conflagration. Not since 2012 has Africa’s Great Lakes region been on such a troubling trajectory. But this time, no one is pumping the brakes.
Sudan’s army warns of conflict after Rapid Support Forces redeploy across country:
Sudan’s military warned in the early hours of Thursday of the mobilization and redeployment of troops by the country’s powerful paramilitary force in the capital Khartoum and other cities without its approval, and of potential armed confrontations. The warning, a rare public rebuke of the Rapid Support Forces, came following reports about the deployment of RSF troops in Khartoum in the past few days and in Merowe, a city in the Northern State, 330 kilometers north of the capital.
A power struggle between de facto head of state General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, chief of the RSF, has heightened in recent months, creating tensions between the military and the RSF that have threatened the overall security situation in the country. The tensions have twice forced a delay of the signing of an internationally backed agreement, originally scheduled for April 1, to name a Sudanese civilian government and launch a new transition towards elections.
EU condemns Chad’s “regrettable” expulsion of German ambassador:
The Chadian government announced Friday evening the expulsion of the German ambassador “for discourteous attitude” and “disrespect of diplomatic customs.” It has not given details on the facts. In reaction to this expulsion deemed “unjustified,” the German government announced on Tuesday the expulsion of the Chadian ambassador to Berlin, Mariam Ali Moussa.
Claire—I suspect there must be more to this story, but can find no further reporting.
Tribal clashes in Darfur kill 24:
… By Monday evening, local authorities had declared a nightly curfew and a state of emergency for one month throughout the state. Calm has since returned but many security forces are still deployed. The UN has reported fifty houses burned down in Foro Baranga and “about 4,000 families, or 20,000 people, displaced.”
At least 30 people were killed in an attack on an internally displaced person’s camp in north-central Nigeria, the second major attack in the area this week:
Gunmen attacked civilians in Mgban village in Benue state Friday evening and an investigation is underway, said Sewuese Anene, a local police officer. While it’s unclear who was responsible for the attack, authorities said suspicion fell on local herdsmen who have clashed in the past with farmers over land disputes in north-central Nigeria.
MIDDLE EAST
Despite hope, Yemen peace talks are oversold. Neither the ongoing negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, nor the upcoming prisoner swap, are tangible signals for an upcoming end of the war as most Yemeni factions remain excluded:
The main topics on the negotiating table are a six-month truce between the two warring parties—the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government and the Iran-aligned Houthis—the reopening of the Houthi-controlled airport in Sanaa and the Red Sea port in Hodeida, the lifting of the Houthi blockade of the government-controlled city of Taiz, the resumption of oil exports from government-held oil fields via Houthi gateways and the consolidation of Yemen’s economy. However, despite the international hope that has accompanied this latest round of talks, there are some doubts peace could be imminent. One reason is that Yemen’s Presidential Council, the executive body of the internationally recognized government, was not included in the negotiations, nor were any other Yemeni parties, such as the separatists of the Southern Transitional Council. …
The brutal conflict—widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran—has caused almost half a million deaths and resulted in the internal displacement of thousands of people. According to the United Nations, at least one-third of the population of 31 million is fully dependent on international aid.
“Killing machine” Iran snuffed out life of 582 people in 2022; over 150 executed so far this year. Iran’s penal code allows execution by methods that include firing squad, stoning and even crucifixion, but all executions in the recent years have been carried out by hanging.
Iran to hunt down women without hijab using cameras in public spaces. According to a statement released by the police, the monitoring system has been introduced to “prevent resistance against the hijab laws.” The statement added that any defiance of the country’s dress code “tarnishes Iran's spiritual image and spreads insecurity.”
Bahrain and Qatar to restore diplomatic ties after blockade. The move comes two years after several neighboring Arab countries decided to end their boycott of Qatar:
The row that led the quartet to cut all ties with Qatar in 2017 centered around its support for Islamist movements deemed a threat by Arab neighbors as well as its ties with Turkey and Shiite Muslim power Iran. The four states also had their own individual disagreements with Qatar. The boycott had little impact on Qatar’s economy, however. … Regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia has led efforts to rebuild ties with Qatar and, along with Egypt, reestablished diplomatic relations.
Saudi Arabia hosts Iran, Syria visits after years of bitter divisions:
Only hours after Iranian state media said a delegation had touched down in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia announced the arrival of Syria’s foreign minister in Jeddah, the first such trip since the country’s civil war broke out in 2011. Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad met with his Saudi counterpart and discussed “the necessary steps to achieve a complete political settlement to the Syrian crisis. … The aim is to achieve “a national reconciliation and ... bring back Syria to its Arab fold and resume its natural role in the Arab world.”
Saudi push to bring Syria back to Arab fold faces resistance. At least five members of the Arab League are refusing to readmit Damascus to the group:
Syria’s readmission to the Arab League, a group of 22 nations, would legitimize building ties with Mr. Assad, a decade after the Syrian leader was ostracized for his brutal crackdown on opponents and plunging the country into civil war. Engineered by Riyadh, it would also help bolster Prince Mohammed’s influence in Damascus and the wider region. …
At least five members of the Arab League, including Morocco, Kuwait, Qatar and Yemen, are refusing to readmit Syria into the group, the Arab officials say. Even Egypt, which has rekindled ties with Syria in recent months and is a staunch Saudi ally, is pushing back, they added. These countries want Mr. Assad to first engage with the Syrian political opposition in a way that would give all Syrians a voice to determine their future, the officials said.
Lebanon dysfunction hits new peak:
On the 48th anniversary of the Lebanese civil war, Beirut is paralyzed. Municipal elections planned for next month are now stalled, the presidential void is entering its sixth month and the judiciary has flip-flopped by lifting a travel ban on the head of the Central Bank, Riad Salameh. The lifting of the travel ban came ahead of his scheduled hearing in Paris next month concerning a number of alleged money laundering and other financial crimes … Judge Ghada Aoun had slapped Salameh with the travel ban in January 2022 amid an investigation into allegations of fraud, abuse of public funds and financial misconduct.
500 in Kuwait convicted over “unlawful” retweets. The convictions were based on complaints made by individuals against tweets seen as defamatory or containing false information about them. People behind the original tweets, as well as users who reposted them, were fined.
Jordan, Israel spar over access to Christian holy sites in Jerusalem:
Israeli-Jordanian relations have taken a turn for the worse with accusations from both sides over access to Jerusalem’s holy sites, ahead of the Greek Orthodox Easter this Sunday, and the Muslim holiday of Ramadan next week.
… Israel is blaming Jordan for fanning the flames over incidents last week at the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif compound, when Israeli officers raided Al-Aqsa mosque, and clashed with worshippers that they claimed are barricading themselves at the site. On Thursday, Jordan condemned Israeli restrictions on Christians’ access to the Jerusalem Holy Sepulcher Church for the Holy Light celebrations this coming Saturday. … [An unnamed senior Israeli official] … specifically blamed Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi for exacerbating the crisis. In a reference to far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the official said that Safadi had “acted like Jordan’s Ben-Gvir.”
Coalition will not advance judicial overhaul during the month of May. The government will first focus on passing the national budget before returning to focus on judicial reform legislation:
The delay until after the budget passes seemingly gives more time for the coalition and opposition to negotiate the judicial overhaul at the President's Residence, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s initial decision was to hold negotiations only until the end of the Passover recess, and a number of ministers said that the legislation would resume immediately afterword.
How Israel’s political crisis is fanning the flames of civil war. Violent internal strife is more likely than many would like to believe:
“Civil war” is probably the term most heard in Israeli discourse today, and it is not just a figure of speech. It is an expression of overwhelming and unprecedented anxiety like nothing Israelis have experienced before. It sounds even more ominous in Hebrew when the alternative term to “civil war” is “brothers’ war” in a country that prides itself on internal solidarity to the level that people call each other “brother.” But for many Israelis that fraternal feeling has now gone and has been openly replaced by hate, contempt, and plain horror. …
Days after flareup, Herzog reiterates Israel’s commitment to status quo at Temple Mount. Visiting Arab city of Shfaram, president expresses hope that holy month of Ramadan will “lower the flames and heal the wounds.”
IDF warns that Israel is closer to war than calm:
According to intel estimates, security tensions will not disappear after the end of the month of Ramadan, and the security trend could lead to war. According to the same estimates, an unusual response against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran’s affiliates in Syria should be held off to cool down the explosive religious tension that has developed around the Temple Mount.
Additionally, Israel’s enemies recognized the United States’ withdrawal from the Middle East, which included removing advanced aircraft from the region and replacing them with less advanced aircraft. This change affects Israeli deterrence, alongside the growing American preoccupation with China and Russia. Also, the intelligence estimates that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei decided a year ago to respond to Israel’s actions against the regime in Tehran. According to the estimates, the Iranian leader demands a response to the assassinations and attacks attributed to Israel, and therefore the Iranians are making an effort to move the terrorist activities into Israel and not stay on the border.
Israel must prepare for war with Iran without US help, former Israeli NSA chief says. Yaacov Amidror says recent tensions, the changing Middle East landscape, and shifting US priorities make a “deterioration” in the security situation likely.
[Former national security adviser Yaakov] Amidror was discussing a flareup over the Passover holiday that saw rockets fired at Israel from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria by groups largely seen as Iranian proxies. “Iran is more sure of itself. It has managed to sign a number of agreements with Arab states. The world is starting to look different,” he said, referring to the recent agreements by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties with Tehran.“With all that, the chances of a [security] deterioration are greater,” Amidror said.
He also questioned the US commitment to Israel’s security. “America is not the same America in terms of its presence, and the Iranians see that. The US has much greater problems than the Middle East. The world looks at Israel differently,” he said.
★ Iran kickstarts multi-front Middle East war against Israel. The Islamic Republic’s proxies and allies appear to have begun a multi-front conflict with Israel over the past week:
A week of attacks on Israel, including rockets fired from Lebanon, Gaza and Syria, represents the manifestation of an Iranian strategy to confront Israel with multiple threats on different fronts. Although different groups may be behind the attacks from those places, these groups are likely all linked to Iran. The groups involved include Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and others that may go by different or new names, but which are proxies of Tehran.
… The multi-front war is made possible by Iran’s entrenchment in Syria. In the past, it could threaten Israel using Hezbollah in Lebanon or Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza, and Hamas in Gaza. Israel has launched operations to neutralize the Jihad and Hamas threats in the past. Since last year, it has also been battling Jihad gunmen in Jenin and other Palestinian factions that are emboldened against the Jewish state.
Senior Religious Zionist Rabbi Rabbi David Stav says Religious Zionists caused Israel’s division:
Stav meant that the members and heads of the Religious Zionist Party block, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, were against any halt of the legislation of the judicial reforms, even though the country has become in a very unstable situation as result. …
Stav emphasized that the problematic rhetoric, as he sees it, coming from religious-Zionist leaders, isn’t just about the judicial reforms. He explained that RZP bloc members introduced “dozens of laws and the seculars are rightly made to think that in ten to twenty years, the ultra-orthodox will be the majority and will limit their rights.” Stav related to the different suggested amendments in the Law of Return, the draft law that would have caused “unmodestly dressed” men and women to go to jail for six months if they visit the Kotel and other laws.
Market braces for downgrade of Moody’s Israel credit outlook. Shekel continues to depreciate amid investor concern that, following credit agency’s earlier warnings, outlook could be changed from positive to stable in coming days.
80 percent of Israeli startups say judicial shakeup will have “negative impact.” Company heads and investors report concern about raising capital, outflow of funds, and employees seeking to relocate.
Latin patriarch says new government has made life worse for Holy Land Christians:
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the top Catholic cleric in the region, says Jewish extremists are emboldened by having representatives in power, leading to rise in attacks on Christians. The influential Vatican-appointed Latin patriarch [said] that the region’s 2,000-year-old Christian community has come under increasing attack, with the most right-wing government in Israel’s history emboldening extremists who have harassed clergy and vandalized religious property at a quickening pace. The uptick in anti-Christian incidents also comes as right-wing groups, galvanized by their allies in government, appear to have seized the moment to expand efforts to establish Jewish enclaves in the Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem.
Netanyahu tells his son to shut up and stop tweeting.
AMERICAS
It’s Lula’s turn to thumb his nose at Washington:
[The Brazilian president is visiting] US-sanctioned Huawei Technologies before a meeting with Xi in Beijing tomorrow, when the two will discuss a proposal to achieve a cease-fire in Ukraine—an effort dismissed by the US.
Unlike Macron’s pretensions to speak for Europe, Lula does have a claim to represent Latin America as the leader of its biggest economy, and by extension, the Global South. He’s made clear that he won’t meekly follow the US line on Russia or China. That’s a win for China’s president.
The West hoped Lula would be a partner. He’s got his own plans. Brazil’s new president risks alienating the US and Europe as he hosts Iranian warships, equivocates over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and negotiates with China:
Lula’s election victory last year over Jair Bolsonaro, the dictatorship-admiring former military officer who aligned himself with President Donald Trump and the global right wing, buoyed optimism that Latin America’s most populous nation could be a partner in promoting democratic norms in the Western Hemisphere and beyond. But instead, Lula is reminding the world of his approach to Brazil’s foreign policy—which, in keeping with his first stint in office, prioritizes pragmatism and dialogue, and shows little concern over whether it antagonizes Washington or the West.
A look at Lula’s first 100 days in office.
Brazil and Argentina mend ties during state visit:
Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández met with his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in Buenos Aires on Monday to discuss mending the bilateral relationship that had been damaged during the administration of right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. The World Cup and Lula’s predecessor were also on the agenda. Ahead of the summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which began Tuesday, the two leaders spent hours on Monday signing multiple agreements between the two countries and referencing the region’s turn toward the political left in recent years.
School massacres are no longer just an American problem:
In the past four years, Latin America’s largest nation has suffered 17 school attacks. Twenty-six people have been killed and dozens wounded. In the last eight months alone, the country has endured 11 assaults, alarming many Brazilians who now fear that the carnage is just beginning. …
Many of the perpetrators fit a profile Americans will recognize: young, disaffected white men and boys in the grip of online groups that worship the killers of schoolchildren. Some have adopted the iconography of hate groups based in the United States: the skull masks of the white supremacist Atomwaffen Division, swastikas and other hate symbols. Several, including the boy in Aracruz, were inspired by the 1999 Columbine massacre in Colorado.
Why has Peru chosen to isolate itself? Since Dina Boluarte took office, Lima has definitively withdrawn its ambassadors from three countries in the region:
In the last four months there has been an escalation of tension whose last outbreak occurred in the last days of March, when President Dina Boluarte announced the definitive withdrawal of the Peruvian ambassador in Colombia. A month earlier, the Peruvian government had made an equally drastic decision with Mexico and Honduras. What happened to trigger these fractures with countries with which Peru has a long tradition of bilateral relations?
AMLO continues nationalizing key industries in Mexico:
The Mexican government agreed to purchase 13 power plants from the Spanish energy company Iberdrola for US$6 billion on Tuesday, giving its state-owned power company, Commission Federal de Electricidad, majority control over the country’s electricity market. Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador called the decision part of a “new nationalization” of some of the country’s major industries, including mineral and oil production … The US and Canada have strongly opposed AMLO’s actions, and have threatened a trade war if Mexico continues to roll back access for international corporations in Mexico’s power and oil markets.
Ortega regime steps up religious persecution of Catholics during Holy Week. The Nicaraguan leadership banned processions and other traditions during Easter with the police presence redoubled ahead of the April 18 fifth anniversary of widespread social protests:
The religious persecution that the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo has been carrying out throughout April, and which intensified in its scale during Easter week when the police prohibited processions and other Catholic traditions in public spaces, has led to the detention of at least twenty Nicaraguans. The data on the arrests has been provided by opponents of the Ortega government, which have classified them as “kidnappings” after security forces laid siege to places of worship. The Blue and White National Unity, an opposition organization founded in 2018, reported 35 instances of human rights violations during Holy Week, including five cases of police harassment and nine incidents of officers forcefully breaking up processions. These pressure groups also highlighted the deportation of Panamanian priest Donaciano Alarcón, who was left barefoot on the border with Honduras by immigration authorities after calling for the release of Bishop Rolando Álvarez, who refused exile along with 222 political prisoners expelled by Ortega in February and was subsequently sentenced to 26 years in prison.
Cubans waiting for gasoline see no light at the end of the tunnel. After months of blackouts triggered by the sorry state of the state-owned electric utility, fuel shortages have ground traffic to a halt:
A severe fuel shortage has virtually paralyzed all public and private transportation, causing mile-long lines at gas stations. Hundreds of drivers sleep in their vehicles for days on end waiting for a fuel tanker that nobody is sure will ever arrive. These are the infamous “ghost lines” in which people queue at dilapidated gas stations with no assurance that the miraculous fuel will ever turn up. To kill time and stave off boredom, people play dominoes under the shade of trees as they wait and wait. “We are worse off than ever before. No one knows what to do anymore,” says Manuel …
Some say this has happened before and everything gets sorted out in the end. “This can’t go on for long because without fuel everything collapses,” says one optimistic man. He thinks that the government will “bring in an oil tanker from somewhere” and this latest crisis will pass. His companions jump all over him. “No, compadre. This is different—it never ends. If it isn’t gasoline shortages, it’s a blackout. Then there’s no chicken and we have to bring in a chicken ship, and then there’s no diesel … ” The young man speaking says he has applied for Spanish citizenship so he can leave the country. In the last twelve months, about 320,000 Cubans (3 percent of the population) crossed illegally from Mexico into the United States, according to US immigration officials.
Colombia replaces “medieval” ultra-religious police chief who waged war on the devil. General Henry Sanabria claimed to have seen Satan himself:
… Sanabria, a 51-year-old former lawyer, was appointed among other high-ranking officials … but it soon became clear that his archaic manner was incompatible with his position. His public statements were so bizarre that it was hard to believe they were intended. Within a month of being appointed, he described Halloween as a “satanic strategy to induce children to the occult,” redoubling the police presence on October 31 to protect children from being abducted and killed in satanic rites in the absence of corroborating statistics or previous such cases. ... Sanabria, while claiming to respect the Colombian Constitution, dreamed of a religious police force in the style of some Islamic countries.
“They pissed off the wrong mother.” Relatives of young men killed in Caracas by security forces take their cases to the International Criminal Court:
So much documentation and video footage was submitted to the ICC prosecutor that the court extended the deadline for processing and responding to each case. A decision from the ICC is expected by the end of April. The ICC is investigating cases of political persecution, arbitrary detentions, sexual violence and torture since 2014, the year when political unrest first surged during President Nicolás Maduro’s administration. Human rights organizations and victims are pushing for the court to consider killings during protests and security operations, to determine whether Venezuela has a pattern and policy of exercising excessive force. …
A recent report by two civil society organizations—ONGA Provea and the Centro Gumilla Foundation—documented 824 cases of “extrajudicial executions” in 2022, down from over 3,000 victims in 2020. Most of the victims were between the ages of 18 and 30. The tactics and abusive practices of years past are back again, they say. “Massive raids with no warrants, search and seizures, and arbitrary detentions are back again. Since the massacre in La Vega two years ago, officials no longer report the number of people killed and detained during the raids. The Ombudsman’s Office, which is supposed to defend the public, never demands government investigations into the serious human rights violations that are happening during these extrajudicial executions.”
GLOBAL
★ Will Washington halt the global renaissance of nuclear power? US regulators are dashing hopes to slash emissions using nuclear energy:
The new rules, mandated by the US Congress, were supposed to provide a modern, streamlined licensing process for the new small reactors in advanced stages of development by multiple US and international companies. Instead, the NRC staff simply cut and pasted the existing rules for large conventional reactors into a mammoth 1,200-page regulation for new reactor types.
These developments are a shock for anyone counting on a nuclear revival to cut climate emissions. Absent substantial regulatory reform, the future of nuclear energy in the United States will look very much like the past. Licensing of advanced reactors will proceed in much the same way it has for conventional reactors for decades: slowly, expensively, and with an excess of precaution so extreme that observers have long quipped that the NRC’s view of nuclear safety is that the safest reactor is one that will never be built. … [The] NRC’s influence over the future of nuclear energy will likely extend well beyond US borders. Not only are many other countries counting on US technology to meet their own climate and energy security objectives, but, for better or worse, they also view NRC licensing as the regulatory gold standard.
Claire—again, listen to our podcast with Robert Zubrin.
The coming age of AI-powered propaganda. How to defend against supercharged disinformation:
In the seven years since Russian operatives interfered in the 2016 US presidential election, in part by posing as Americans in thousands of fake social media accounts, another technology with the potential to accelerate the spread of propaganda has taken center stage: artificial intelligence, or AI. Much of the concern has focused on the risks of audio and visual “deepfakes,” which use AI to invent images or events that did not actually occur. But another AI capability is just as worrisome. Researchers have warned for years that generative AI systems trained to produce original language—“language models,” for short—could be used by US adversaries to mount influence operations. And now, these models appear to be on the cusp of enabling users to generate a near limitless supply of original text with limited human effort. This could improve the ability of propagandists to persuade unwitting voters, overwhelm online information environments, and personalize phishing emails. The danger is twofold: not only could language models sway beliefs; they could also corrode public trust in the information people rely on to form judgments and make decisions. …
To prepare for this eventuality, governments, businesses, and civil society organizations should develop norms and policies for the use of AI-generated text, as well as techniques for figuring out the origin of a particular piece of text and whether it has been created using AI. Efforts by journalists and researchers to uncover fake social media accounts and fake news websites can also limit the reach of covert propaganda campaigns—regardless of whether the content is human or AI-written.
The number of people who have died this year while crossing the Mediterranean Sea to seek refuge in Europe reached a level not seen since 2017, according to a report published by the United Nations on Wednesday. The UN’s International Organization for Migration counted 441 deaths in the first three months of 2023, but warned that the real number was likely much higher.
The Leak
★ The leaker has been identified:
The man behind a massive leak of US government secrets that has exposed spying on allies, revealed the grim prospects for Ukraine’s war with Russia, and ignited diplomatic fires for the White House is a young, charismatic gun enthusiast who shared highly classified documents with a group of far-flung acquaintances searching for companionship amid the isolation of the pandemic.
United by their mutual love of guns, military gear and God, the group of roughly two dozen—mostly men and boys—formed an invitation-only clubhouse in 2020 on Discord, an online platform popular with gamers. But they paid little attention last year when the man some call “OG” posted a message laden with strange acronyms and jargon. The words were unfamiliar, and few people read the long note, one of the members explained. But he revered OG, the elder leader of their tiny tribe, who claimed to know secrets that the government withheld from ordinary people.
The key countries and revelations from the Pentagon document leak.
Serbia denies it sent weapons to Ukraine, as leaked document claims.
Ukraine had to change military plans because of US Pentagon leak.
CIA leak, sanctions highlight strained relations between US and Hungary.
Officials are worried that leaked documents could damage US operations around the world.
Here are the biggest Middle East disclosures in the leaked intel docs.
THE DAILY BAT
A Russian recruitment video:
But who needs Russian propagandists when you’ve got Donald Trump—or “Comrade Trump,” in the term of endearment to which he’s been elevated—and Tucker Carlson? “It’s very primitive—like it’s meant for children,” says the host approvingly:
(Does that infuriate you as much as it does me? Does it seem normal to anyone here that the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and the most widely-watched cable news host in America are serving as eager propagandists for an enemy nation—an enemy of humanity—that beheads prisoners of war? It makes me sick.)
Correction: The original version of this newsletter went out with two copies of the first video and none of the second. We’ve fixed it. The comments above should now make sense.
THE CCP IS DISMAYED
China won’t tread path of Western modernization, which features polarization, plunder: Xi:
Chinese President Xi Jinping has stressed that China will remain steadfast in comprehensively deepening reform and expanding high-standard opening-up, while also emphasizing that Chinese modernization is essentially different from Western modernization, which has features such as polarization and plunder, according to the Xinhua News Agency on Thursday.
During his inspection tour in South China’s Guangdong Province, a major economic powerhouse and trailblazer in China's reform and opening-up, Xi, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, also focused on high-quality development. … China’s focus on building a high-end manufacturing industry is also a crucial step in countering the US’ relentless campaign to contain China’s development, according to Li Youhuan.
MUSKWATCH
I don’t want to disappoint those of you who presumably signed up because you share my loathing of Elon Musk, so here are a few items just for you. (NB: It’s still impossible to embed Twitter threads on Substack. Why Musk thinks it’s helpful to Twitter to limit incoming links to the platform, I can’t fathom. His business genius is beyond our ken, I suppose.)
Nick Cohen: “Musk is not only suppressing free speech, he’s also suppressing discussion of his suppression of free speech. Way to go, tech bro.”
NPR quits Twitter. “NPR’s organizational accounts will no longer be active on Twitter because the platform is taking actions that undermine our credibility by falsely implying that we are not editorially independent.”
Matt Taibbi: “There was a natural opening to push back on the worst actors with significant public support if Musk could hold it together and at least look like he was delivering on the implied promise to return Twitter to its “free speech wing of the free speech party” roots. Instead, he stepped into another optics Punji Trap, censoring the same Twitter Files reports that initially made him a transparency folk hero.”
Mike Masnick: ⬆️ “Just a stunning show of leopard face eating.”
“A group of SpaceX employees wrote an open letter to company leadership about Musk’s Twitter presence, writing that ‘Elon’s behavior in the public sphere is a frequent source of distraction and embarrassment for us’; SpaceX responded by firing several of the letter’s organizers.”
ANIMAL OF THE DAY
I don’t know what it is, but I know it would be right at home in my apartment. (Click for video.)
Note: We edit quoted text for conformity with our style guide; e.g., we Americanize English spelling. We stealth-correct typos and pretend they never happened. But if we make a really serious mistake, we issue a correction.
Great work, Manu. You’ve united Europe against you.
Here’s the text of the Sorbonne speech: Initiative for Europe.
Here’s Von der Leyen’s speech, which was indeed assertive, but thoroughly undercut by Macron. I would be furious in her position—or in the position of the 27 EU countries that signed off on it.
It killed hundreds of thousands.
“France is an ally, not a vassal” - reasonable.
“France has no lessons to learn from anyone” ...really?
I think current French policy re: China and Russia and Brexit are in fact closely related. Brexit and the estrangement of Britain from the European Union since the later Thatcher years have basically handed leadership of Europe to France on a silver platter and been completely disastrous for trans-atlanticism of the kind I think Claire and many other Cosmopolitan Globalists consider themselves supporters of. Now I don't think we have yet to truly taken into account the history of implications of this in part due to what I call lulls in the UK's relationship with the EU. Yes you can draw a straight line from Maastricht and Black Wednesday to Brexit but there were other period under say Tony Blair when could say Britain did play a leadership role. All of Eastern Europe and about half of the Western European countries supported the Iraq War for example but in retrospect the Blair years simply look like a head fake of Britain long road out of Europe.
Second the similarity between Macron domestic and foreign policy stances is that Macron is basically a monopolist. He doesn't want to be your best friend he wants to be your only friend. Hence Macron is quite happy to see the British removed as a competing power in the EU and Europe. Macron along these lines probably wouldn't mind a Trumpist type figure back in the White House. Macron would like nothing more than forcing the Baltics and Poland to eat his shit and btw, when you look actions not words that Baltics and the Poles when push comes to have ate Macron's shit at the EU Council since Brexit. Poland is not nearly in the position geopolitically or economically like Britain was to veto even EU initiatives that require unanimity among member states initiatives that are strongly part of Macron "third pole" agenda of equidistance between the US and China. Hence a lot of public criticism of Macron doesn't actually come govt officials in the CEE countries but from think tankers and newspaper columnists. Actual govt officials in the CEE know where the boss resides post Brexit and he resides at the Elysee Palace.