Michele Wucker’s book “The Gray Rhino” describes large obvious threats that we neglect until disaster strikes. Apparently it’s a bestseller in China. I thought it was a good read.
After reading it I mostly went on doing the same things I had been doing...
While I sympathize with what you're saying regarding panic, I don't think it's the right response.
Panic: sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behavior.
That's exactly the opposite of what is needed. Fear can be a powerful and useful motivation, but if you want to accomplish anything useful, panic isn't the way to go.
An earthquake as large as the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Haiti is almost surely going to occur in the American Pacific Northwest. The geology of that area suggests that despite more rigorous building codes, an earthquake of similar magnitude as the one in Turkey could be even more damaging.
It is a bit unclear whether oseltamivir (Tamiflu) protects against infection, hospitalization or death from H5N1. Papers published in 2005 suggest that this antiviral was becoming less protective but data from 2010 suggests that it may still be protective. My guess is that it will provide at least some protection which could be the difference between death and and a miserable but not fatal illness. See,
Tamiflu is widely available, generic (which means inexpensive) and has a long shelf life.
Claire’s readers should go to their providers, get a prescription and head to the pharmacy. Whether insurance reimburses for it or not, bring it home and store it in a cool, dry place in case it’s needed.
If an epidemic breaks out in humans we will all hear about it. Surely there will be a massive run on the drug and it will quickly become unavailable.
The drug works best if taken with 2 days of the onset of symptoms but it still works if taken within 5 days.
Can we be positive that it will be efficacious against human infection?
No.
But it might be and it’s better to be safe than sorry.
If there’s an epidemic, authorities fearing a run on the drug will promote a lot of lies about how dangerous it is to take the drug without a doctors orders. That’s what happened early on in COVID times when patients were taking hydroxychloroquine (aka Plaquenil). The CDC was right when they said the drug didn’t help ameliorate COVID, but they were lying when they said hydroxychloroquine was dangerous. The same thing was true about ivermectin and COVID. It was completely right to say it didn’t ameliorate COVID but complete misinformation to claim the drug was dangerous.
Tamiflu comes with a package insert that outlines potential risks and side effects. You don’t need to be a physician to get the gist of it, you just need to be reasonably intelligent. It also outlines the most consequential drug interactions.
Go buy your Tamiflu now while you can easily get it. If H5N1 never arrives, you will still have it in case you need it for more benign forms of the flu.
Michele Wucker’s book “The Gray Rhino” describes large obvious threats that we neglect until disaster strikes. Apparently it’s a bestseller in China. I thought it was a good read.
After reading it I mostly went on doing the same things I had been doing...
While I sympathize with what you're saying regarding panic, I don't think it's the right response.
Panic: sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behavior.
That's exactly the opposite of what is needed. Fear can be a powerful and useful motivation, but if you want to accomplish anything useful, panic isn't the way to go.
An earthquake as large as the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Haiti is almost surely going to occur in the American Pacific Northwest. The geology of that area suggests that despite more rigorous building codes, an earthquake of similar magnitude as the one in Turkey could be even more damaging.
See
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one
and
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/08/a-major-earthquake-in-the-pacific-northwest-just-got-more-likely/495407/
It is a bit unclear whether oseltamivir (Tamiflu) protects against infection, hospitalization or death from H5N1. Papers published in 2005 suggest that this antiviral was becoming less protective but data from 2010 suggests that it may still be protective. My guess is that it will provide at least some protection which could be the difference between death and and a miserable but not fatal illness. See,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2835509/
and
https://www.science.org/content/article/more-tamiflu-resistance-bird-flu
Tamiflu is widely available, generic (which means inexpensive) and has a long shelf life.
Claire’s readers should go to their providers, get a prescription and head to the pharmacy. Whether insurance reimburses for it or not, bring it home and store it in a cool, dry place in case it’s needed.
If an epidemic breaks out in humans we will all hear about it. Surely there will be a massive run on the drug and it will quickly become unavailable.
The drug works best if taken with 2 days of the onset of symptoms but it still works if taken within 5 days.
Can we be positive that it will be efficacious against human infection?
No.
But it might be and it’s better to be safe than sorry.
If there’s an epidemic, authorities fearing a run on the drug will promote a lot of lies about how dangerous it is to take the drug without a doctors orders. That’s what happened early on in COVID times when patients were taking hydroxychloroquine (aka Plaquenil). The CDC was right when they said the drug didn’t help ameliorate COVID, but they were lying when they said hydroxychloroquine was dangerous. The same thing was true about ivermectin and COVID. It was completely right to say it didn’t ameliorate COVID but complete misinformation to claim the drug was dangerous.
Tamiflu comes with a package insert that outlines potential risks and side effects. You don’t need to be a physician to get the gist of it, you just need to be reasonably intelligent. It also outlines the most consequential drug interactions.
Go buy your Tamiflu now while you can easily get it. If H5N1 never arrives, you will still have it in case you need it for more benign forms of the flu.