Despite the awful and exponentially dangerous consequences of nuclear proliferation, when we see what Ukraine got for giving up its nuclear arsenal for empty American and British assurances, how can anyone possibly chastise South Koreans who aren't willing to stake their country and their lives on American promises? Truly, in the larger frame, it's part and parcel of the distrust among allies that Putin is counting on, and it's sending us to a dark place we are unwilling to contemplate, much less address. Nevertheless, South Korean fears are not difficult to understand.
On April 13, 1939 Winston Churchill “Warned of a Darkening Scene, and Urged Britain to Wake Up”. In his notes, he wrote “Neville - who has been a second time deceived by the Dictator in whom he particularly trusts, & invites us to trust… There is a great danger in refusing to believe things you do not like.” (www.raabcollection.com).
However, today, the threats are arising “from all directions” and there is no Churchill up front or in the wings. I would venture that Zelenskiy is Ukraine’s Churchill, and, pace the Illiad, Ukraine’s Hector as well. If we were to truly embrace the truth that Ukraine is fighting and Ukrainian soldiers are dying for all of Europe, indeed the West itself, then he gets the nomination.
Imagine if Winston Churchill had used Substack to issue his warning. Can we imagine pushing a ”Like” button? It’s hard to push the ‘Like” button for what Claire has written, because the “Like” button is so fey, when her warnings deserve a far more emphatic response, including respect and appreciation for the material she presents, and not least by how she pulls it all together and presents it with the passion that is so often nowhere in sight, with the bloodless “calm, cool and collected” objectivity mantra firmly in place. A commonplace observation, all this, I know that. But nevertheless, here and now, as readers who “get it”, we can, at very least, simply say a Thank you that goes much deeper than “Like”.
How can you deter when you criticize your allies for defending themselves too well (see Israel) or you minimize the war other allies are in (see Ukraine)? How can yo deter when you fear provoking your enemies more than you fear your defeat by them? How can you deter when barely attack your enemies proxies?
This is not only Trump's or Congresses fault and a new Biden administration would be as dangerous for the free world as a new Trump one. Maybe worse so - because at least Trump hates losing.
The Biden/Blinken/Obama foreign policy does not believe in America or the West. Trump believe in America but not the West.
Both lead to devastating results - it is time for the other free countries to wake up!
IDK but it doesn’t seem plausible that NK can go nuclear in the region without the CCP on board and that seems unlikely. Obviously they could slip the leash but will China blandly accept enormous collateral damage without pushback?.
Nor did I say they did. My point is that terrorist countries and movements do what they want when they want - they don't look for approval from others. They do expect support from their allies though - which they always get. Unlike democratic countries from their allies.
If you seriously believe NK nuking Tokyo and Seoul, thus provoking a massive standoff response in kind and posing a existential threat to the Chinese state, is exactly the same thing as 2,500 conventionally armed Jihadis breaching the Israeli border in terms of notification of allies, your point might hold water. That kind of warfare just might require a little consultation like informing Xi when to head to his safe room. Putin as well. But then I am sure you know far more about such matters.
Always? That seems implausible; these are not especially agreeable people we’re talking about, and it seems unlikely they never fall out or disappoint each other. In the case of Palestine a common complaint is that other Arabs talk a lot and do little- a similar complaint was apparently common during the Crusades, so it’s not a phenomenon limited to this issue.
Hi Claire - I agree with so much of what you have written here, but especially about Ukraine. I have girlfriends from Lithuania and Romania and while they live in the US they are definitely concerned about what could happen should Ukraine fall. They both lived through the end of communism as small kids and while they have some memories, their parents stories are enough to keep them alert and on edge.
My biggest beef is with the general American public's lack of interest in what's happening outside their own borders (save the Southern Border which is currently a whole other can of worms). This isn't new. But it's getting worse. As you point out a lot of it is the disconnection between generations and education about what happened in the past. But another big player is social media/internet and how it has shortened many peoples' attention spans and introduced a lot of unnecessary fluff (don't get me wrong - I love a good meme and am obsessed with using GIF's in my everyday text chats :) ) that serves to dull the mind and distract from other more important matters. Some people don't even care to know about other English speaking countries, let alone non-English speaking ones! This lack of interest can also be partially tied to the various giant media outlets who over the course the last 25 years have been gradually reducing the size and scope of their foreign correspondent desks and budgets. I have heard this repeated by both Clarissa Ward @ CNN and Christina Lamb at The London Times (both fabulous female conflict reporters). This serves to undermine the promotion of international news and foreign affairs to the detriment of everyone.
Lastly - in my tiny social media corner of the WWW, I am finding more and more of my real-life friends and other people I follow online are posting obsessively about the war in Gaza. It is almost like the conflict is brand new and no one has ever heard of it before. Constant 'Strike for Gaza days' and always trying to connect it to every other thing that is happening on the planet. To read your point about the war in Ukraine having more of an impact on the US and it's allies than the current conflict in the Middle East made me think that maybe I am not going crazy and that my feelings might actually have some validity. I don't understand the obsession. I think I have mentioned this before but my main guess is that the ME conflict plays into the current Far Left ideology of Opressor vs Oppressed and especially using race as a way to magnify that lens. This would explain why they have no interest in Ukraine (white person invades another white person) or somewhere like Sudan - fighting between Arabs and local Sudanese tribes doesn't track when they're both 'of colour' even if the RSF is consistently carrying out genocide against locals. I am probably Center - slightly left or right depending on the issue. I never say anything to my friends (also some are clients and I don't want to burn those bridges) but I truly cannot understand why they care so much (and I mean SO much) about Palestine but could care less about Ukraine, Sudan, or even Myanmar where the same things are happening. I
“The Biden Administration contains no officials with a strong foreign policy record or a notable talent for managing foreign crises.” What do you think of the job Antony Blinken is doing?
Additionally, I don’t relish the idea of a nuclear armed Russia winning victory over Ukraine and having intent to invade Poland and the Baltic states. How should one factor in the massive incompetence we have seen in the Russian armed forces?
I feel bad for Blinken - is that wrong? The guy seems to be constantly on the road through a million different time zones trying to keep everyone happy, on board, and relatively coherent but it's an uphill battle with many of the current actors. I don't think he's perfect but I feel like his current job is more challenging than Biden's!
I agree, he’s always fighting uphill battles. I remember thinking as early as the withdrawal from Afghanistan that I do not envy him or the job he is in, and I feel that more so every day.
Claire - a request: Give some analysis to what Biden (the sitting president) should do and focus less on what Trump MIGHT do IF he became president.
I agree that we are in a time of great danger.
We have a full expeditionary force sitting in Poland to guard against the Russians (Claire - what are the Europeans doing for their own defense?).
We have a significant military force sitting near Israel to guard against Iran (and allies) jumping in (after giving Israel billions every year for 50 years, surely the Middle East's largest military can defend itself).
We have a task force sitting near the Red Sea to punish the Houthis (where are the European and Chinese naval task forces - they are the primary users of this shipping lane?).
We have reinforced the South China Sea against pressures faced by our allies (Philippines and Taiwan).
We are watching the Balkans for signs of Russian involvement (again, a European backyard).
Some 10% of US navy hulls have been shown to be combat ineffective (the LCS classes).
Recruiting in the US military is way down; how much of that is due to "woke" policies from Biden, Austin, and Milley (one of the most divisive chairmen of the JCS ever)?
Now it looks like Korea is heating up.
US strategic policy has an alligator mouth and a humming bird ass.
Time for two things to happen:
(1) US has to prioritize according to resources.
(2) Europe has to step up in its own defense (Trump hounded Europe to meet its 2% spending commitments - Germany has lied to every American president since 1989 with their mañana promises on defense spending).
(As an example of other countries not doing their part, Taiwan spends 2.1% of their GDP on defense, relying on America to spend blood and treasure to rescue them from their own fecklessness - at a time when our annual deficit is about $2 trillion.)
Claire. Contrary to your column, I believe that Americans are giving like heroes. It is other countries (with the exception of Ukraine and Israel) that are freeloading.
1. Biden should immediately release frozen Russian funds and use them to arm Ukraine.
2. Biden and his surrogates should speak to the American people *around the clock* about the urgency of passing this aid, Russian active measures against the West, and what's at stake.
3. Biden should immediately send every weapon we no longer use in our stockpiles, including 6000 tanks, 2000 F16s, A20s, older versions of ATACMS, and helicopters. He should announce that our goal is for Ukraine to win, and win quickly. He should say that contrary to appearances, Russia should not doubt for a moment his resolve--owing to the uncertainty of our election, it is now our policy for Ukraine to win *before next November,* and he will see to this.
4. Biden should immediately launch a task force on Russian information warfare and active measures, and this task force should come up with a serious plan to combat both. If the GOP won't support it, he should hang this around their necks.
We Germans have cut off our gas from Russia and have to spend a lot to get it from other countries! Our economy has to deal with the consequences of this! If not for massive government subsidies our chemical and pharmaceutical industries are at stake! Which in turn will spill over to automotive and other sectors! For the US, military assistance to Ukraine amounts to a mere rounding error of the defense budget, for us, though… We‘re betting on the West to win this and risk our future for this. Scholz may drag his feet over delivering Taurus, but for Germany itself, there‘s more at stake here than for any other country apart from Ukraine! Our domestic idiots (far-right AfD) are already lobbying for economic suicide while neo-Stalinist Sahra Wagenknecht‘s party BSW is trying to forge a Querfront. A nefarious alliance of far-right and far-left, which happens to be pro-Russia, anti-EU and anti-NATO. Then there’s the Linke, the far-left post GDR remnant of communist SED. Steeped in nostalgia about how great alignment with Russia would be and how fabulous the GDR was. In addition to all these nutjobs, we face a crumbling government which is afraid to take any meaningful decisions at all, while fearfully watching the rise of said nutjobs. If that wasn‘t enough we have to squash terrorist plots by Hamas and their sympathizers and affiliated organizations. Most Germans sadly fail to see clearly what happens. We‘re aware of the threat from the far-right, but don not do enough to address the fact that Putin supports the radical fringe at both ends of the political spectrum. While organizing marches against the far-right, we fail to distance ourselves from Hamas-sympathizers, trying to latch onto that anti-far-right sentiment! The US is an ocean away, but we should all think very hard about what will happen, if Russia wins in Ukraine!
Time to double your defense budget and offer any relevant energies and skills and knowledge you have to the military... and encourage your children to consider doing the same?
That is a fundamental problem. Throwing money at it won’t do much to address it. First of all: The draft was scrapped a few years ago, by a conservative government (Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, was defense minister)! Rebuilding the necessary structures would take years, even if there was the political will to do this. But that’s not there either! We have pledged 100b EUR for the Zeitenwende. Fine, but the politicians are still
Its time for a new generaton of leaders - for Germany and the entire West. These leaders need to understand the urgency of the situation. Claire has painted a tough picture and its time to wake up. See my post for a solution - but one that requires courage and determination.
This is close to a proposal I've had for some time that I've termed "Responsible retreat." The obstacle is that the US is simply not capable, right now, of carrying this out:
"This proposal will need political, emotional and financial boldness by the status-quo countries and by the US. In the US this will have to be a bipartisan agreement much like the early cold war since it will require 10-15 years to put in place and the United States will have to take the lead on implementation."
It requires leadership of a kind we're incapable of mustering--along with honesty with ourselves of a kind we're similarly incapable of mustering. If you can come up with a solution to this--or even an idea--share it with me, because I agree with you: absent a plan of the kind you discuss, we'll see "irresponsible retreat," which like the British withdrawal from India or the Ottoman withdrawal from the Middle East will lead to centuries' worth of conflict.
(If we were to pull it off, we'd be the first empire in history to withdraw responsibly--which suggests to me that it might not be possible. Usually, things that are possible have happened at least once already in history. But the United States is a very unusual country, and despair is a crime.)
I agree with everything you wrote in this comment. At the end of my piece I wrote that we need a new generation of leaders and we need real will. I feel that in Israel that generation is arriving. 350,000 men and women aged 22-45 ran to defend their country. Many left families with children to serve. They all have children, wives, husbands, boyfriends, girlfriends and just friends. It is safe to say that post-Zionism, Israel's version of wokeness is now over. There is no one from age 8-45 who is not a Zionist now. All the old cliches (of both right and left) no longer exist. All the attempts to paper over weakness and to buy off enemies will be shot down. Defeatism is being defeated. As for the other status-quo countries, one can only hope. The US is special and unique. And yes - as you wrote and as I wrote - this or any major plan requires bi-partisan support in the US, major funding by the US AND the other status-quo countries and staying power. Personally - I think that the Israel-India relationship could be the start. Happy to discuss further!
For a while I have been hoping the CG and Claire would do a whole series on the NPT because I think it is completely undiscussed topic. The real issue with the NPT regime in my opinion is it is not just based on a bargain between the nuclear weapons states and the non nuclear weapons states but between the NWS states themselves i.e. that when the treaty was negotiated both the US and USSR deemed it in the national interests that there NOT be a proliferation of nuclear weapons states. The question is do today's leaders in Russia and China continue to believe so. Unfortunately there is increasing evidence that Russia and China no longer consider non-proliferation a worthy goal.
So the question if Russia and China no longer believe in non-proliferation that what should be the American and Western response? If Iran and North Korea now have the own nukes as members of team Russia/China should the US see to it that South Korea and Japan have there own nukes as part of Team America? Does Russia's invasion of Ukraine after Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons make the whole subject is for naught and basically everyone is going to want there own nukes and rightfully so? Should the US continue of "principled" position of opposing proliferation both among friends and foes?
I agree with the great bulk of this comment, especially on the importance of aid to Ukraine. The fecklessness of Trump and his Republican vassals cannot be overstated; Biden has been far too timid in supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself.
Having said that, a glance at the map of Asia will tell you that America could not continue to supply US troops stationed in Afghanistan without the goodwill of Russia. Had Biden left American troops in Afghanistan, those troops would have been hostages. There is no way Biden could have helped Ukraine even as much as he has done, with American troops still stationed in Afghanistan.
To your point about clonus. Biden was stressed by the need to get control over a pandemic in 2021. He probably did not question whatever incorrect analysis CIA fed him about the sustainability of Afghanistan's government. He left too much equipment there, and he could have done better regarding exfiltration of Afghans who had helped the US. Even though the US withdrawal from Afghanistan successfully returned 120,000 people to the United States in the greatest logistical feat since the Berlin Airlift.
Biden was correct to cut our losses in Afghanistan, messy as that was. It has been called the graveyard of empires for a reason. Moreover, no American government can change Afghan culture and what it does to women and girls, horrible as that is. Supporting our democratic allies in Europe and Asia is a keystone of US foreign policy. Changing the cultures of Muslim countries with seventh century mores is not. The Afghans are proud of who they are and what they have been for millennia, much as we may disapprove.
The idea that South Korea would be safer if it had its own nuclear deterrent is not, to use your word, Claire, “nuts.” What’s nuts is to assume that if South Korea, Japan or Taiwan had their own nuclear weapons it gives license to every tin pot dictator in the world to seek its own nuclear weapons.
Iran, (the Ayatollah is the very definition of a tin pot dictator) didn’t wait for a green light from a South Korean nuclear program to start developing its own weapon, did it?
Iran did get a green light for its efforts to get the bomb; that green light came from Obama and Biden.
Would Ukraine be under the same threat it’s under today if Clinton didn’t pressure it to decommission it’s nuclear weapons? Would Taiwan face as severe a threat from China if it possessed a couple of hundred nuclear weapons?
Would the lunatic who runs North Korea think twice about attacking South Korea if it was nuclear armed? What’s “nuts,” Claire, is thinking that the American nuclear umbrella over South Korea is credible. Do you really believe that an American President of either political party will respond to a nuclear attack by the North on the South when Kim has nuclear armed intercontinental missiles that can reach the American west coast?
The reason so many of our allies in Europe and Asia are at great risk is because globalists have insisted in the aftermath of the West’s victory in the Cold War that American leadership of the world was still required. This allowed our European and Asian allies to become over dependent on American military might and allowed them to spend all of their resources on butter not guns.
After one foreign policy and military disaster after another foisted on the United States by a credulous globalist elite, it should be no surprise that the American Public’s interest in serving as the world’s policeman is spent.
Not only have globalists squandered the good will of Americans, they’ve squandered our military and economic power as well.
Want to know who’s “nuts,” Claire? Globalists are nuts.
Despite the awful and exponentially dangerous consequences of nuclear proliferation, when we see what Ukraine got for giving up its nuclear arsenal for empty American and British assurances, how can anyone possibly chastise South Koreans who aren't willing to stake their country and their lives on American promises? Truly, in the larger frame, it's part and parcel of the distrust among allies that Putin is counting on, and it's sending us to a dark place we are unwilling to contemplate, much less address. Nevertheless, South Korean fears are not difficult to understand.
Of course they're not. It's classic tragedy of the commons.
On April 13, 1939 Winston Churchill “Warned of a Darkening Scene, and Urged Britain to Wake Up”. In his notes, he wrote “Neville - who has been a second time deceived by the Dictator in whom he particularly trusts, & invites us to trust… There is a great danger in refusing to believe things you do not like.” (www.raabcollection.com).
However, today, the threats are arising “from all directions” and there is no Churchill up front or in the wings. I would venture that Zelenskiy is Ukraine’s Churchill, and, pace the Illiad, Ukraine’s Hector as well. If we were to truly embrace the truth that Ukraine is fighting and Ukrainian soldiers are dying for all of Europe, indeed the West itself, then he gets the nomination.
Imagine if Winston Churchill had used Substack to issue his warning. Can we imagine pushing a ”Like” button? It’s hard to push the ‘Like” button for what Claire has written, because the “Like” button is so fey, when her warnings deserve a far more emphatic response, including respect and appreciation for the material she presents, and not least by how she pulls it all together and presents it with the passion that is so often nowhere in sight, with the bloodless “calm, cool and collected” objectivity mantra firmly in place. A commonplace observation, all this, I know that. But nevertheless, here and now, as readers who “get it”, we can, at very least, simply say a Thank you that goes much deeper than “Like”.
I appreciate that.
How can you deter when you criticize your allies for defending themselves too well (see Israel) or you minimize the war other allies are in (see Ukraine)? How can yo deter when you fear provoking your enemies more than you fear your defeat by them? How can you deter when barely attack your enemies proxies?
This is not only Trump's or Congresses fault and a new Biden administration would be as dangerous for the free world as a new Trump one. Maybe worse so - because at least Trump hates losing.
The Biden/Blinken/Obama foreign policy does not believe in America or the West. Trump believe in America but not the West.
Both lead to devastating results - it is time for the other free countries to wake up!
IDK but it doesn’t seem plausible that NK can go nuclear in the region without the CCP on board and that seems unlikely. Obviously they could slip the leash but will China blandly accept enormous collateral damage without pushback?.
Hamas attacked Israel with Iranian support and training - but they didn't share the timing. Terrorist and terrorist states do as they please.
Last time I checked my notes Hamas did not use nuclear weapons
Nor did I say they did. My point is that terrorist countries and movements do what they want when they want - they don't look for approval from others. They do expect support from their allies though - which they always get. Unlike democratic countries from their allies.
If you seriously believe NK nuking Tokyo and Seoul, thus provoking a massive standoff response in kind and posing a existential threat to the Chinese state, is exactly the same thing as 2,500 conventionally armed Jihadis breaching the Israeli border in terms of notification of allies, your point might hold water. That kind of warfare just might require a little consultation like informing Xi when to head to his safe room. Putin as well. But then I am sure you know far more about such matters.
Not quite sure you read properly
Always? That seems implausible; these are not especially agreeable people we’re talking about, and it seems unlikely they never fall out or disappoint each other. In the case of Palestine a common complaint is that other Arabs talk a lot and do little- a similar complaint was apparently common during the Crusades, so it’s not a phenomenon limited to this issue.
Always meaning… in general.
Currently, with the axis, its always.
Hi Claire - I agree with so much of what you have written here, but especially about Ukraine. I have girlfriends from Lithuania and Romania and while they live in the US they are definitely concerned about what could happen should Ukraine fall. They both lived through the end of communism as small kids and while they have some memories, their parents stories are enough to keep them alert and on edge.
My biggest beef is with the general American public's lack of interest in what's happening outside their own borders (save the Southern Border which is currently a whole other can of worms). This isn't new. But it's getting worse. As you point out a lot of it is the disconnection between generations and education about what happened in the past. But another big player is social media/internet and how it has shortened many peoples' attention spans and introduced a lot of unnecessary fluff (don't get me wrong - I love a good meme and am obsessed with using GIF's in my everyday text chats :) ) that serves to dull the mind and distract from other more important matters. Some people don't even care to know about other English speaking countries, let alone non-English speaking ones! This lack of interest can also be partially tied to the various giant media outlets who over the course the last 25 years have been gradually reducing the size and scope of their foreign correspondent desks and budgets. I have heard this repeated by both Clarissa Ward @ CNN and Christina Lamb at The London Times (both fabulous female conflict reporters). This serves to undermine the promotion of international news and foreign affairs to the detriment of everyone.
Lastly - in my tiny social media corner of the WWW, I am finding more and more of my real-life friends and other people I follow online are posting obsessively about the war in Gaza. It is almost like the conflict is brand new and no one has ever heard of it before. Constant 'Strike for Gaza days' and always trying to connect it to every other thing that is happening on the planet. To read your point about the war in Ukraine having more of an impact on the US and it's allies than the current conflict in the Middle East made me think that maybe I am not going crazy and that my feelings might actually have some validity. I don't understand the obsession. I think I have mentioned this before but my main guess is that the ME conflict plays into the current Far Left ideology of Opressor vs Oppressed and especially using race as a way to magnify that lens. This would explain why they have no interest in Ukraine (white person invades another white person) or somewhere like Sudan - fighting between Arabs and local Sudanese tribes doesn't track when they're both 'of colour' even if the RSF is consistently carrying out genocide against locals. I am probably Center - slightly left or right depending on the issue. I never say anything to my friends (also some are clients and I don't want to burn those bridges) but I truly cannot understand why they care so much (and I mean SO much) about Palestine but could care less about Ukraine, Sudan, or even Myanmar where the same things are happening. I
Hi Claire, fantastic article as usual. You said
“The Biden Administration contains no officials with a strong foreign policy record or a notable talent for managing foreign crises.” What do you think of the job Antony Blinken is doing?
Additionally, I don’t relish the idea of a nuclear armed Russia winning victory over Ukraine and having intent to invade Poland and the Baltic states. How should one factor in the massive incompetence we have seen in the Russian armed forces?
I feel bad for Blinken - is that wrong? The guy seems to be constantly on the road through a million different time zones trying to keep everyone happy, on board, and relatively coherent but it's an uphill battle with many of the current actors. I don't think he's perfect but I feel like his current job is more challenging than Biden's!
I agree, he’s always fighting uphill battles. I remember thinking as early as the withdrawal from Afghanistan that I do not envy him or the job he is in, and I feel that more so every day.
Claire - a request: Give some analysis to what Biden (the sitting president) should do and focus less on what Trump MIGHT do IF he became president.
I agree that we are in a time of great danger.
We have a full expeditionary force sitting in Poland to guard against the Russians (Claire - what are the Europeans doing for their own defense?).
We have a significant military force sitting near Israel to guard against Iran (and allies) jumping in (after giving Israel billions every year for 50 years, surely the Middle East's largest military can defend itself).
We have a task force sitting near the Red Sea to punish the Houthis (where are the European and Chinese naval task forces - they are the primary users of this shipping lane?).
We have reinforced the South China Sea against pressures faced by our allies (Philippines and Taiwan).
We are watching the Balkans for signs of Russian involvement (again, a European backyard).
Some 10% of US navy hulls have been shown to be combat ineffective (the LCS classes).
Recruiting in the US military is way down; how much of that is due to "woke" policies from Biden, Austin, and Milley (one of the most divisive chairmen of the JCS ever)?
Now it looks like Korea is heating up.
US strategic policy has an alligator mouth and a humming bird ass.
Time for two things to happen:
(1) US has to prioritize according to resources.
(2) Europe has to step up in its own defense (Trump hounded Europe to meet its 2% spending commitments - Germany has lied to every American president since 1989 with their mañana promises on defense spending).
(As an example of other countries not doing their part, Taiwan spends 2.1% of their GDP on defense, relying on America to spend blood and treasure to rescue them from their own fecklessness - at a time when our annual deficit is about $2 trillion.)
Claire. Contrary to your column, I believe that Americans are giving like heroes. It is other countries (with the exception of Ukraine and Israel) that are freeloading.
1. Biden should immediately release frozen Russian funds and use them to arm Ukraine.
2. Biden and his surrogates should speak to the American people *around the clock* about the urgency of passing this aid, Russian active measures against the West, and what's at stake.
3. Biden should immediately send every weapon we no longer use in our stockpiles, including 6000 tanks, 2000 F16s, A20s, older versions of ATACMS, and helicopters. He should announce that our goal is for Ukraine to win, and win quickly. He should say that contrary to appearances, Russia should not doubt for a moment his resolve--owing to the uncertainty of our election, it is now our policy for Ukraine to win *before next November,* and he will see to this.
4. Biden should immediately launch a task force on Russian information warfare and active measures, and this task force should come up with a serious plan to combat both. If the GOP won't support it, he should hang this around their necks.
Bravo.
Yes, yes, and yes.
Yes to shaming the Republicans into doing the right thing (both strategically and morally).
If Biden did what you suggest, he would be showing the leadership that we need (and deserve).
We Germans have cut off our gas from Russia and have to spend a lot to get it from other countries! Our economy has to deal with the consequences of this! If not for massive government subsidies our chemical and pharmaceutical industries are at stake! Which in turn will spill over to automotive and other sectors! For the US, military assistance to Ukraine amounts to a mere rounding error of the defense budget, for us, though… We‘re betting on the West to win this and risk our future for this. Scholz may drag his feet over delivering Taurus, but for Germany itself, there‘s more at stake here than for any other country apart from Ukraine! Our domestic idiots (far-right AfD) are already lobbying for economic suicide while neo-Stalinist Sahra Wagenknecht‘s party BSW is trying to forge a Querfront. A nefarious alliance of far-right and far-left, which happens to be pro-Russia, anti-EU and anti-NATO. Then there’s the Linke, the far-left post GDR remnant of communist SED. Steeped in nostalgia about how great alignment with Russia would be and how fabulous the GDR was. In addition to all these nutjobs, we face a crumbling government which is afraid to take any meaningful decisions at all, while fearfully watching the rise of said nutjobs. If that wasn‘t enough we have to squash terrorist plots by Hamas and their sympathizers and affiliated organizations. Most Germans sadly fail to see clearly what happens. We‘re aware of the threat from the far-right, but don not do enough to address the fact that Putin supports the radical fringe at both ends of the political spectrum. While organizing marches against the far-right, we fail to distance ourselves from Hamas-sympathizers, trying to latch onto that anti-far-right sentiment! The US is an ocean away, but we should all think very hard about what will happen, if Russia wins in Ukraine!
This is off-topic, But Germany (and most of Europe) suffers from the same problem as the U.S. - poor leaders.
There is something fundamentally wrong when the U.S is (probably) going to have to choose between two old, mendacious, incompetent men.
Is Schotz the best that Germany can produce?
Remember "The Second Coming"?
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
Scholz was the least worst option who was able to forge a majority. He happens to have become the least popular chancellor in history.
Time to double your defense budget and get your children to serve in the army.
Time to double your defense budget and offer any relevant energies and skills and knowledge you have to the military... and encourage your children to consider doing the same?
That is a fundamental problem. Throwing money at it won’t do much to address it. First of all: The draft was scrapped a few years ago, by a conservative government (Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, was defense minister)! Rebuilding the necessary structures would take years, even if there was the political will to do this. But that’s not there either! We have pledged 100b EUR for the Zeitenwende. Fine, but the politicians are still
dragging their feet.
Its time for a new generaton of leaders - for Germany and the entire West. These leaders need to understand the urgency of the situation. Claire has painted a tough picture and its time to wake up. See my post for a solution - but one that requires courage and determination.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/140995486
This is close to a proposal I've had for some time that I've termed "Responsible retreat." The obstacle is that the US is simply not capable, right now, of carrying this out:
"This proposal will need political, emotional and financial boldness by the status-quo countries and by the US. In the US this will have to be a bipartisan agreement much like the early cold war since it will require 10-15 years to put in place and the United States will have to take the lead on implementation."
It requires leadership of a kind we're incapable of mustering--along with honesty with ourselves of a kind we're similarly incapable of mustering. If you can come up with a solution to this--or even an idea--share it with me, because I agree with you: absent a plan of the kind you discuss, we'll see "irresponsible retreat," which like the British withdrawal from India or the Ottoman withdrawal from the Middle East will lead to centuries' worth of conflict.
(If we were to pull it off, we'd be the first empire in history to withdraw responsibly--which suggests to me that it might not be possible. Usually, things that are possible have happened at least once already in history. But the United States is a very unusual country, and despair is a crime.)
I agree with everything you wrote in this comment. At the end of my piece I wrote that we need a new generation of leaders and we need real will. I feel that in Israel that generation is arriving. 350,000 men and women aged 22-45 ran to defend their country. Many left families with children to serve. They all have children, wives, husbands, boyfriends, girlfriends and just friends. It is safe to say that post-Zionism, Israel's version of wokeness is now over. There is no one from age 8-45 who is not a Zionist now. All the old cliches (of both right and left) no longer exist. All the attempts to paper over weakness and to buy off enemies will be shot down. Defeatism is being defeated. As for the other status-quo countries, one can only hope. The US is special and unique. And yes - as you wrote and as I wrote - this or any major plan requires bi-partisan support in the US, major funding by the US AND the other status-quo countries and staying power. Personally - I think that the Israel-India relationship could be the start. Happy to discuss further!
For a while I have been hoping the CG and Claire would do a whole series on the NPT because I think it is completely undiscussed topic. The real issue with the NPT regime in my opinion is it is not just based on a bargain between the nuclear weapons states and the non nuclear weapons states but between the NWS states themselves i.e. that when the treaty was negotiated both the US and USSR deemed it in the national interests that there NOT be a proliferation of nuclear weapons states. The question is do today's leaders in Russia and China continue to believe so. Unfortunately there is increasing evidence that Russia and China no longer consider non-proliferation a worthy goal.
So the question if Russia and China no longer believe in non-proliferation that what should be the American and Western response? If Iran and North Korea now have the own nukes as members of team Russia/China should the US see to it that South Korea and Japan have there own nukes as part of Team America? Does Russia's invasion of Ukraine after Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons make the whole subject is for naught and basically everyone is going to want there own nukes and rightfully so? Should the US continue of "principled" position of opposing proliferation both among friends and foes?
I agree with the great bulk of this comment, especially on the importance of aid to Ukraine. The fecklessness of Trump and his Republican vassals cannot be overstated; Biden has been far too timid in supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself.
Having said that, a glance at the map of Asia will tell you that America could not continue to supply US troops stationed in Afghanistan without the goodwill of Russia. Had Biden left American troops in Afghanistan, those troops would have been hostages. There is no way Biden could have helped Ukraine even as much as he has done, with American troops still stationed in Afghanistan.
To your point about clonus. Biden was stressed by the need to get control over a pandemic in 2021. He probably did not question whatever incorrect analysis CIA fed him about the sustainability of Afghanistan's government. He left too much equipment there, and he could have done better regarding exfiltration of Afghans who had helped the US. Even though the US withdrawal from Afghanistan successfully returned 120,000 people to the United States in the greatest logistical feat since the Berlin Airlift.
Biden was correct to cut our losses in Afghanistan, messy as that was. It has been called the graveyard of empires for a reason. Moreover, no American government can change Afghan culture and what it does to women and girls, horrible as that is. Supporting our democratic allies in Europe and Asia is a keystone of US foreign policy. Changing the cultures of Muslim countries with seventh century mores is not. The Afghans are proud of who they are and what they have been for millennia, much as we may disapprove.
The idea that South Korea would be safer if it had its own nuclear deterrent is not, to use your word, Claire, “nuts.” What’s nuts is to assume that if South Korea, Japan or Taiwan had their own nuclear weapons it gives license to every tin pot dictator in the world to seek its own nuclear weapons.
Iran, (the Ayatollah is the very definition of a tin pot dictator) didn’t wait for a green light from a South Korean nuclear program to start developing its own weapon, did it?
Iran did get a green light for its efforts to get the bomb; that green light came from Obama and Biden.
Would Ukraine be under the same threat it’s under today if Clinton didn’t pressure it to decommission it’s nuclear weapons? Would Taiwan face as severe a threat from China if it possessed a couple of hundred nuclear weapons?
Would the lunatic who runs North Korea think twice about attacking South Korea if it was nuclear armed? What’s “nuts,” Claire, is thinking that the American nuclear umbrella over South Korea is credible. Do you really believe that an American President of either political party will respond to a nuclear attack by the North on the South when Kim has nuclear armed intercontinental missiles that can reach the American west coast?
The reason so many of our allies in Europe and Asia are at great risk is because globalists have insisted in the aftermath of the West’s victory in the Cold War that American leadership of the world was still required. This allowed our European and Asian allies to become over dependent on American military might and allowed them to spend all of their resources on butter not guns.
After one foreign policy and military disaster after another foisted on the United States by a credulous globalist elite, it should be no surprise that the American Public’s interest in serving as the world’s policeman is spent.
Not only have globalists squandered the good will of Americans, they’ve squandered our military and economic power as well.
Want to know who’s “nuts,” Claire? Globalists are nuts.