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His analysis of the Afghan sticking-plaster rip-ocalypse sounds spot on to me.

Need to digest the rest.

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Peter Zeihan made several geopolitical predictions two years ago that resonate well with today's reality. He emphasized demographic stresses on specific countries, and indeed China's population is falling, Germany struggles with workforce and immigration, and the U.S. benefits from immigration. He emphasized the decline of Pax-Americana, and indeed both U.S. political parties talk less about policing the world and talk more about reshoring industry to the Western Hemisphere. He said China's economy would suffer, and indeed their GDP has stagnated. He predicted the U.S. was the rare country immune to demographic contraction and waning Pax-Americana because Mexico would become the U.S.'s new China and Columbia would become Mexico's Mexico. Indeed, the U.S. stock market has skyrocketed. Zeihan emphasized the frailties of global shipping lanes, and indeed the Red Sea has become a war zone. One mistake Zeihan makes is failing to realize that Europe and China will adapt to the declining U.S. policing. Europe will spend more on defense and China will patrol seas for its container ships. Bravo to our friends Berlinski and Zeihan who recast the geopolitical gauntlet as mere Newtonian physics, with the hex of Heisenberg.

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