Okay, looking at my Starship prediction, it was essentially bang on. Not exact, but very close (explosions included).
The JWST didn't find any atmospheres around small, rocky planets, as expected. Still waiting on further analysis from the Trappist System though.
Armosphere was found around one (or two?) larger rocky worlds. Super-Earth type planets, with enough mass to hold onto atmospheres despite the ravages of their stars. Which is as expected.
What I didn't expect though was that one might be a hycean world (combination of hydrogen and ocean—thick atmosphere of water vapor and hydrogen, with a hot, deep water ocean). It's not the world itself that surprised me, but the possible detection of dimethyl sulphide in its atmosphere, a compound known to only be produced by life (algea) on Earth. If confirmed, it would be the first detection of extraterrestrial life. Microbial of course, but still. I predicted that even microbial life would be unlikely around red dwarf stars, but it looks like maybe there's a loophole for these hycean worlds. No chance of complex life, but even microbes would be incredible! Maybe it's a sweet spot for extremophile type life.
For fusion, no energy break even or above this year. Pretty much as expected.
I'm going to brush off my space related predictions from last year. One was van on, which was pretty cool. The other was a bit premature.
SpaceX's Starship will have several (3 or more) orbital flights this year, and at least one more good explosion. This is the one that was a bit premature last year [Medium confidence].
I was correct that the JWST wouldn't find any atmospheres around terrestrial (small, rocky) planets orbitibg red dwarf stars, and I don't think they will this year either [High confidence].
In a nutshell, the reason is red dwarf stars are very active, far more so than stars like our Sun which generally quiet down after their infancy. This had two effects: stripping away any atmospheres present & therefore causing any oceans to dissappear (this is what happened to Mars because it lacks a planetary magnetic field). It also roasts any life present that isn't underground, ruling out a biosphere more complex than bacteria, and probably that as well. Note that you can't detect life if there's no atmosphere unless you physically go and dig up some samples.
The exception to my no atmosohere prediction is if there's a somewhat larger terrestrial planet, a super-Earth or mini-Neptune, covered with a gas envelope think enough so it's not stripped away. However, this will almost certainly be so thick as to preclude life as we know it, and definitely preclude any complex life. If such an atmosphere is found, it will likely be further outside the "habitable" zone where things are cooler. I'm very interested in the JWST analysis of the rest of the Trappist system (7 planets total) which I think will be done this year. Great place to prove or disprove my prediction.
One more: a private fusion company will meet/exceed scientific energy breakeven [Low confidence]. I actually think we'll switch to medium confidence in 2025, and high between 2026-28, but there's a slight chance it happens this year.
One quibble on Ukraine - not sure "stalemate" covers the middle ground well. I don't think it will be over, but if Ukraine hasn't made significant progress, then Russia will have, so to speak.
As to monetising - go long Poland, especially tech sector?
I am going to have a strong disagree with ALL of Trump's trials will be delayed. I think one at least will happen and that will undermine the rationale for all of them to be delayed.
Claire - I was able to answer up through North Korea and then the site decided I was not subscribed, and "something went wrong". In case others also have trouble.
Oh, I just figured out how to fix it - try going to the end of the post and answering them from there to where it stopped working. I was able to complete them all that way.
Iran is p**ed that Hamas spilled the beans too soon and now they‘ll have to go back to the drawing board. Iran doesn’t want to sacrifice Hizb’Allah just yet. Also, the US responded to the Houthi threat military.
... a dirty dozen players around the table, misunderstandings, miscalculations, unintended results, feckless stupidities, aces wild... what's to worry?
Okay, looking at my Starship prediction, it was essentially bang on. Not exact, but very close (explosions included).
The JWST didn't find any atmospheres around small, rocky planets, as expected. Still waiting on further analysis from the Trappist System though.
Armosphere was found around one (or two?) larger rocky worlds. Super-Earth type planets, with enough mass to hold onto atmospheres despite the ravages of their stars. Which is as expected.
What I didn't expect though was that one might be a hycean world (combination of hydrogen and ocean—thick atmosphere of water vapor and hydrogen, with a hot, deep water ocean). It's not the world itself that surprised me, but the possible detection of dimethyl sulphide in its atmosphere, a compound known to only be produced by life (algea) on Earth. If confirmed, it would be the first detection of extraterrestrial life. Microbial of course, but still. I predicted that even microbial life would be unlikely around red dwarf stars, but it looks like maybe there's a loophole for these hycean worlds. No chance of complex life, but even microbes would be incredible! Maybe it's a sweet spot for extremophile type life.
For fusion, no energy break even or above this year. Pretty much as expected.
I guess that hycean world was late 2023. The possible detection of life there was still a pleasant and somewhat unexpected surprise.
https://www.nasa.gov/universe/webb-discovers-methane-carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-of-k2-18-b/
Interesting how many people voted their hearts (against Trump) and were wrong.
Thank you for the warm welcome, dear friend Claire! Looking forward to getting edified.
1. It will be a very bad year to be a Houthi (high)
2. The Arctic Ocean will not become liquid enough for ships to cross (high)
3. The Russians will be out of all of Ukraine by New Year's (low)
4. The Great Salt Lake will be fine, this year at least (high)
5. There will be a shortage of car batteries (low)
How much money can I get for these?
I'm going to brush off my space related predictions from last year. One was van on, which was pretty cool. The other was a bit premature.
SpaceX's Starship will have several (3 or more) orbital flights this year, and at least one more good explosion. This is the one that was a bit premature last year [Medium confidence].
I was correct that the JWST wouldn't find any atmospheres around terrestrial (small, rocky) planets orbitibg red dwarf stars, and I don't think they will this year either [High confidence].
In a nutshell, the reason is red dwarf stars are very active, far more so than stars like our Sun which generally quiet down after their infancy. This had two effects: stripping away any atmospheres present & therefore causing any oceans to dissappear (this is what happened to Mars because it lacks a planetary magnetic field). It also roasts any life present that isn't underground, ruling out a biosphere more complex than bacteria, and probably that as well. Note that you can't detect life if there's no atmosphere unless you physically go and dig up some samples.
The exception to my no atmosohere prediction is if there's a somewhat larger terrestrial planet, a super-Earth or mini-Neptune, covered with a gas envelope think enough so it's not stripped away. However, this will almost certainly be so thick as to preclude life as we know it, and definitely preclude any complex life. If such an atmosphere is found, it will likely be further outside the "habitable" zone where things are cooler. I'm very interested in the JWST analysis of the rest of the Trappist system (7 planets total) which I think will be done this year. Great place to prove or disprove my prediction.
One more: a private fusion company will meet/exceed scientific energy breakeven [Low confidence]. I actually think we'll switch to medium confidence in 2025, and high between 2026-28, but there's a slight chance it happens this year.
*bang on
Nice - loving the broad sweep!
One quibble on Ukraine - not sure "stalemate" covers the middle ground well. I don't think it will be over, but if Ukraine hasn't made significant progress, then Russia will have, so to speak.
As to monetising - go long Poland, especially tech sector?
I did this with my husband last night and we agreed on most things. This is such an interesting project!
... not sure about the red adversary
Nostradamus was, though, so I had to include it.
I am going to have a strong disagree with ALL of Trump's trials will be delayed. I think one at least will happen and that will undermine the rationale for all of them to be delayed.
Bets placed. I love this.
Claire - I was able to answer up through North Korea and then the site decided I was not subscribed, and "something went wrong". In case others also have trouble.
I had the same problem.
Oh, I just figured out how to fix it - try going to the end of the post and answering them from there to where it stopped working. I was able to complete them all that way.
Thank you!
Thank you- that worked
Uh oh.
same here!! With three questions to go!!
Oh no.
I wonder what to do about this. I'm really sorry.
Turn off the AI.😉
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Why does no one think the Gaza war is going to become a wider war? You guys are cocky.
This one aging sadly well one month on...
!!! and again
Iran is p**ed that Hamas spilled the beans too soon and now they‘ll have to go back to the drawing board. Iran doesn’t want to sacrifice Hizb’Allah just yet. Also, the US responded to the Houthi threat military.
I think the likelihood of escalation is high even if you’re right about these rationales here.
Yes, we‘re talking islamists here. When ideology trumps ratio, all bets are off.
... a dirty dozen players around the table, misunderstandings, miscalculations, unintended results, feckless stupidities, aces wild... what's to worry?