This quiz went seriously wrong. I don't know what the problem was, but the second quiz clearly does not represent actual votes, and given this, I can't be sure. The first one does. I haven't decided what to do about this yet. Do you think it's worth my posting it again?
Yes, and Japan's Hayabusa (actually the first to do so). Absolutely, more to come. There's a Chinese mission launching this year, but it won't return the sample in 2025. I'll be embarrassed if I've missed something, but I don't believe there are any missions that plan to return samples this year.
I want to take issue with the Musk related question a bit. There is not actually going to be a UK election for Musk to interfere for quite some time(2029). The more interesting question is whether Musk will find it irresistible to go beyond election interference and start calling for the challenging and overthrow of the UK's Constitutional Order and the UK government's monopoly on the use of force(as well as going further and perhaps participating in such acts at a personal level). Why is this interesting for me? Well it is commonly thought that with the UK govt unlike say the US govt foreigners and perhaps even Brits themselves that seriously try to instigate the overthrow of the UK government find up hearing the clicking sound of a 7.65 millimeter Walther PPK hand gun.
Unfortionately for Musk he is too much of an idiot savant to realize you probably don't want to mess around with the British Secret Service no matter how rich and powerful you think you are in the way even an average movie goer knows.
For example - near unanimity of the respondents on what will happen in the Ukraine, i.e., that the situation would remain largely unresolved. My views were aligned with majority of CG readers, and I didn't expect that. Perhaps I shouldn't have been. Putin can't give up and Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to push Russia out of the Crimea, for example.
As of today, most questions are still open for 3 more days, but quite a few of them are already closed?
This quiz went seriously wrong. I don't know what the problem was, but the second quiz clearly does not represent actual votes, and given this, I can't be sure. The first one does. I haven't decided what to do about this yet. Do you think it's worth my posting it again?
Maybe as "Quiz C"? But maybe too much time has passed.
Meanwhile there's also this: https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/
There are several questions in the bottom half of the poll that have no time limit. Example:
"Will the unemployment rate in the United States drop below 3 percent?"
It may be decades away, but it will at some point.
There are several questions that need a time limit.
All of this is for 2025.
The question on asteroid return samples, are you aware that a couple such samples have been brought back from separate asteroids already?
On OSIRIS-REx, right? Aren't there more missions like this expected?
Yes, and Japan's Hayabusa (actually the first to do so). Absolutely, more to come. There's a Chinese mission launching this year, but it won't return the sample in 2025. I'll be embarrassed if I've missed something, but I don't believe there are any missions that plan to return samples this year.
I want to take issue with the Musk related question a bit. There is not actually going to be a UK election for Musk to interfere for quite some time(2029). The more interesting question is whether Musk will find it irresistible to go beyond election interference and start calling for the challenging and overthrow of the UK's Constitutional Order and the UK government's monopoly on the use of force(as well as going further and perhaps participating in such acts at a personal level). Why is this interesting for me? Well it is commonly thought that with the UK govt unlike say the US govt foreigners and perhaps even Brits themselves that seriously try to instigate the overthrow of the UK government find up hearing the clicking sound of a 7.65 millimeter Walther PPK hand gun.
https://youtu.be/JNMcZxyuf8Q?si=C4ueVSpdiXYoiNHq&t=1
Or perhaps if that is not deterrence enough they end up like this.
https://youtu.be/krFQ86Xn5H8?si=JVgAqZfrl95HFoy0&t=76
Unfortionately for Musk he is too much of an idiot savant to realize you probably don't want to mess around with the British Secret Service no matter how rich and powerful you think you are in the way even an average movie goer knows.
I think he already did?
Interesting poll, I was surprised to see agreement with other respondents on many of the questions.
Which ones, and why were you surprised?
For example - near unanimity of the respondents on what will happen in the Ukraine, i.e., that the situation would remain largely unresolved. My views were aligned with majority of CG readers, and I didn't expect that. Perhaps I shouldn't have been. Putin can't give up and Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to push Russia out of the Crimea, for example.