Great piece. I've also been deeply worried about a nuclear war but living through a virus crisis of this magnitude, one realizes that we are perfectly capable of destroying ourselves without firing a shot. Or rather, even as we destroy the earth, wrecking the climate, nature finds ways to beat us back. Who do you think will win in the end—humankind or nature? I think we all know the answer.
If we could predict black swans, they wouldn't be very black.
Besides that, some of us have always done better in fluid environments; for us, plans are straitjackets that, when deviated from, leave us helpless.
Plans for war (side note: it's irritating to me for folks who have never had any connection to war to insist that this or that situation "looks like" or "is" war, or the goto favorite, "we're at war." They have no clue, and they denigrate the sacrifices mental and physical of those who have actually been in war) go out the window early on, since the other side too often demurs from complying with our careful plans.
Plans are good things to start from, but only for the moment and only for moderately understood events, war or otherwise.
With black swan events, we're better off without prior plans--they have too many blind alleys and cul de sacs in the event. Jump on off the cliff, and figure it out on the way down. There's time, just don't dawdle.
“ French officials are now just trying to keep two things working: the health system and the food chain.” Yikes!
I've seen the endgame for those who get the horrible respiratory attack: interstitial lung disease. Not a pleasant way to end one's life.
Great piece. I've also been deeply worried about a nuclear war but living through a virus crisis of this magnitude, one realizes that we are perfectly capable of destroying ourselves without firing a shot. Or rather, even as we destroy the earth, wrecking the climate, nature finds ways to beat us back. Who do you think will win in the end—humankind or nature? I think we all know the answer.
If we could predict black swans, they wouldn't be very black.
Besides that, some of us have always done better in fluid environments; for us, plans are straitjackets that, when deviated from, leave us helpless.
Plans for war (side note: it's irritating to me for folks who have never had any connection to war to insist that this or that situation "looks like" or "is" war, or the goto favorite, "we're at war." They have no clue, and they denigrate the sacrifices mental and physical of those who have actually been in war) go out the window early on, since the other side too often demurs from complying with our careful plans.
Plans are good things to start from, but only for the moment and only for moderately understood events, war or otherwise.
With black swan events, we're better off without prior plans--they have too many blind alleys and cul de sacs in the event. Jump on off the cliff, and figure it out on the way down. There's time, just don't dawdle.
And a couple of tunes for your cooped-up-ness:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NQLmUOgT5M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOR1OkwiBCY
Eric Hines