I confess that when I woke up and saw the news this morning, my very first thought was, “Thank God I fell asleep before sending yesterday’s newsletter,” in which I discounted all this talk of an imminent attack as a bluff.
So Israel has now entered full mad dog mode, snarling, biting and slashing at anything which comes near it. Let us not forget that the main object of all this is to keep one man out of jail. And that the object of the attack on Iran was to scupper the chances of a US-Iranian nuclear agreement. Completely unprincipled.
Yes you have learning to do. You’ve been overthinking everything. None of us is going down without a fight if any of us is going down. Our enemies have awakened a slumbering beast in us. There’s nothing more dangerous than an angry American or an angry Israeli, and there never has been anything more dangerous.
Oh, give me a break! Americans and Israelis are not some kind of super-human; everybody gets 'fightin' mad' at times -- doesn't make you the roughest, toughest hombre in town. Hot air won't win wars, and wars won't win you the "Humanitarian of the Year" award, either -- especially not when a most of the 'fighting' is done by launching missiles, and when most of the suffering is borne by civilians.
You just proved, Claire, that, even with your fertile mind, immense sense of concern about the current state of our so-called "civilization," and prolific output, you are, after all, human. Your body hates you if you push it too far and too long. You are not prescient, just highly intelligent and articulate (and that's huge!). Alas, imperfection is a burden we all carry. But you go the extra mile: you engage with reality and you DO something about it: you share insights with others who also care. That is called empowerment.
Two great American philosophers speak about being wrong:
Will Rogers: Everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects.
Mark Twain: It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
What if you had sent it? Your follow-up correction would have helped us all --you included--to appreciate more fully the shifting sand we stand on these days. Stay light on your feet; just keep your gaze fixed on what matters.
Israel can have the bomb, but Iran gets bombed as it tries to develop one? Ethnic cleansing and annexation of the West Bank and Gaza and ever more killing. What an accursed and bloody fate for the Middle East since the British mandate for Palestine began in 1922. War without end...if only He had placed the Promised Land in 20th c. America God would have been kinder to the world
Prime Minister Starmer’s and Foreign Secretary Lammy’s initial response to the Israeli attack is the typical idiotic call by the Europeans begging for a “deescalation.”
Walter Russell Mead’s take is (as ususal) spot on.
“The near-universal European inability to grasp, much less to act on, the vital importance of Israeli power to European security demonstrates the distance European conventional wisdom must travel before the EU achieves strategic coherence.”
As far as I know, we haven't heard much yet from the neutered French President.
And right on cue, here’s the plea for deescalation issued by the neutered French President. It's a bit less clueless than the statement issued by the British Prime Minister but not much. As Walter Russell Mead suggested (see above), America’s European allies are strategic nincompoops.
“France has repeatedly condemned Iran’s ongoing nuclear program and has taken all appropriate diplomatic measures in response.
In this context, France reaffirms Israel’s right to defend itself and ensure its security.
To avoid jeopardizing the stability of the entire region, I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and to de-escalate.
Following the Israeli strikes on Iran and its nuclear program, I convened the National Defence and Security Council this morning.
All necessary steps will be taken to protect our nationals and our diplomatic and military missions in the region.
All measures will also be implemented to ensure the protection of our national territory and our fellow citizens.
France stands ready to work with all its partners to push for de- escalation in the Near and Middle East.
Today, I spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the King of Jordan, the President of the United Arab Emirates, the Emir of Qatar, the German Chancellor, the British Prime Minister, and the President of the United States.
Peace and security for all in the region must remain our guiding principle.”
Macron says France “stands ready to work with all of its partners to push for deescalation…” Isn’t it obvious that what France stands ready to do couldn't be less relevant?
Good, needed to be done. Israel is the only one both willing and able to do it. Hopefully the beginning of the end for Iran's regime too, and freedom for the Iranian people.
My pretty much evidence-free analysis expected it. Iran had been playing silly buggers over the nuclear issue for many years and with its proxies seriously weakened, Israel has much less to fear from their reaction and a lot to gain from cutting off or seriously disabling a primary sources of support. Iran correspondingly had incentives to speed up its nuclear project, giving Israel more reason. How Russia may respond is a big if but the treaty signed earlier this year apparently doesn't impose any requirement. Russia will however gaze longingly at the end of its drone supply though other sources are available. How Iran's neighbours might react is also moot. What Israel says it wants is regime change, up from inside as the regime's forces are badly harmed but that remains to be seen. The prospect of a different more pacific leadership, an end to sanctions, and support from elsewhere are what should be goading incentives. If there is any prospect of stability in the region - not the same as peace - that will happen.
So far it looks like this was impeccably and precisely executed. I too have been thinking for the last 2 weeks “will they or won’t they,” and they did. And I’d guess Trump must have greenlit this somehow, despite his public warnings to Bibi. I am eager (and anxious) to see his public comments.
So Israel has now entered full mad dog mode, snarling, biting and slashing at anything which comes near it. Let us not forget that the main object of all this is to keep one man out of jail. And that the object of the attack on Iran was to scupper the chances of a US-Iranian nuclear agreement. Completely unprincipled.
Happens to the best of us:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-putin-wont-invade-ukraine/
Yes you have learning to do. You’ve been overthinking everything. None of us is going down without a fight if any of us is going down. Our enemies have awakened a slumbering beast in us. There’s nothing more dangerous than an angry American or an angry Israeli, and there never has been anything more dangerous.
Pacifist
Oh, give me a break! Americans and Israelis are not some kind of super-human; everybody gets 'fightin' mad' at times -- doesn't make you the roughest, toughest hombre in town. Hot air won't win wars, and wars won't win you the "Humanitarian of the Year" award, either -- especially not when a most of the 'fighting' is done by launching missiles, and when most of the suffering is borne by civilians.
You just proved, Claire, that, even with your fertile mind, immense sense of concern about the current state of our so-called "civilization," and prolific output, you are, after all, human. Your body hates you if you push it too far and too long. You are not prescient, just highly intelligent and articulate (and that's huge!). Alas, imperfection is a burden we all carry. But you go the extra mile: you engage with reality and you DO something about it: you share insights with others who also care. That is called empowerment.
Two great American philosophers speak about being wrong:
Will Rogers: Everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects.
Mark Twain: It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
What if you had sent it? Your follow-up correction would have helped us all --you included--to appreciate more fully the shifting sand we stand on these days. Stay light on your feet; just keep your gaze fixed on what matters.
Thank you for being you.
Israel can have the bomb, but Iran gets bombed as it tries to develop one? Ethnic cleansing and annexation of the West Bank and Gaza and ever more killing. What an accursed and bloody fate for the Middle East since the British mandate for Palestine began in 1922. War without end...if only He had placed the Promised Land in 20th c. America God would have been kinder to the world
I just saw this on Twitter. I couldn't stop laughing,
“BREAKING: A federal judge in San Francisco has just ordered Israel to rebuild Iran's nuclear facilities.”
What a riot -- yer killin' me, W-W!
Prime Minister Starmer’s and Foreign Secretary Lammy’s initial response to the Israeli attack is the typical idiotic call by the Europeans begging for a “deescalation.”
Walter Russell Mead’s take is (as ususal) spot on.
“The near-universal European inability to grasp, much less to act on, the vital importance of Israeli power to European security demonstrates the distance European conventional wisdom must travel before the EU achieves strategic coherence.”
As far as I know, we haven't heard much yet from the neutered French President.
And right on cue, here’s the plea for deescalation issued by the neutered French President. It's a bit less clueless than the statement issued by the British Prime Minister but not much. As Walter Russell Mead suggested (see above), America’s European allies are strategic nincompoops.
“France has repeatedly condemned Iran’s ongoing nuclear program and has taken all appropriate diplomatic measures in response.
In this context, France reaffirms Israel’s right to defend itself and ensure its security.
To avoid jeopardizing the stability of the entire region, I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and to de-escalate.
Following the Israeli strikes on Iran and its nuclear program, I convened the National Defence and Security Council this morning.
All necessary steps will be taken to protect our nationals and our diplomatic and military missions in the region.
All measures will also be implemented to ensure the protection of our national territory and our fellow citizens.
France stands ready to work with all its partners to push for de- escalation in the Near and Middle East.
Today, I spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the King of Jordan, the President of the United Arab Emirates, the Emir of Qatar, the German Chancellor, the British Prime Minister, and the President of the United States.
Peace and security for all in the region must remain our guiding principle.”
Macron says France “stands ready to work with all of its partners to push for deescalation…” Isn’t it obvious that what France stands ready to do couldn't be less relevant?
Good, needed to be done. Israel is the only one both willing and able to do it. Hopefully the beginning of the end for Iran's regime too, and freedom for the Iranian people.
In case this military strike does not work out okay for Israel and Netanyahu, there is always this opportunity to course-correct...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/witkoff-no-disrespect-to-netanyahu-but-trump-could-be-us-president-and-israels-pm-at-same-time/
My pretty much evidence-free analysis expected it. Iran had been playing silly buggers over the nuclear issue for many years and with its proxies seriously weakened, Israel has much less to fear from their reaction and a lot to gain from cutting off or seriously disabling a primary sources of support. Iran correspondingly had incentives to speed up its nuclear project, giving Israel more reason. How Russia may respond is a big if but the treaty signed earlier this year apparently doesn't impose any requirement. Russia will however gaze longingly at the end of its drone supply though other sources are available. How Iran's neighbours might react is also moot. What Israel says it wants is regime change, up from inside as the regime's forces are badly harmed but that remains to be seen. The prospect of a different more pacific leadership, an end to sanctions, and support from elsewhere are what should be goading incentives. If there is any prospect of stability in the region - not the same as peace - that will happen.
So far it looks like this was impeccably and precisely executed. I too have been thinking for the last 2 weeks “will they or won’t they,” and they did. And I’d guess Trump must have greenlit this somehow, despite his public warnings to Bibi. I am eager (and anxious) to see his public comments.
Keep us updated, Claire!
Especially on longer-range assessments and analysis.
Operational updates we can get on X,etc.
Tactical summaries we can glean from legacy sources.
It's sober strategic analysis that is always in short supply.