Topic for Mr Oxley - what would it mean for British politics if the Conservatives did become the 3rd largest party at Westminster (as a few models suggest) this year?
This is a very interesting question - one I want to go into in more detail in future on my blog, BUT in short it would be a cataclysmic change with a couple of potential outcomes. One would be for the rump of the party to be more completely captured by the right and become more of a nationalist/reactionary party. Even if this doesn't happen, it could lead to the rise of a more right wing party, like Reform, over the next couple of cycles.
In the short term it would also mean the breakdown of a bunch of norms about how opposition really functions, especially if the Labour victory is on that scale. The last time a party collapsed this far was the Liberals a hundred years ago, so we don't have a huge amount of models to go on.
It would mean a ton of headlines that read, "The Strange Death of Tory England." Oh, and John, get with the program! We write *newsletters," not "blogs."
Thanks ... I guess a key determiner is who gets to keep their seats in that extreme. The Continuity Brexit-Braverman Faction and the Provisional Macmillanarian Path would each no doubt like to seize control after Sunak goes, but will they actually be in parliament to do so? I haven't seen the detail, but I think the 2019 nutters are generally more vulnerable...
I’m convinced that Gerhard Schröder, the exChancellor turned oligarch, knows where the SPD has buried the bodies. He must have kompromat on many senior SPD figures, like Steinmeier, Gabriel, Schwesig and ofc Olaf Scholz.
Now just wait a minute - the so-called "top secret" leak was a wiretap of an unclassified (which was obviously pretty lax and stupid) conversation which really didn't reveal any secrets. But it has been nicely spun by (guess who?) THE RUSSIANS! Jesus H Effing Christ, will everybody just settle down and get back to making 155mm shells?
There was quite a bit of militarily and diplomatically sensitive information in it. Air Force Inspector Ingo Gerhartz says he could imagine that 50 and then another 50 missiles would be delivered in a first tranche, but this wouldn't change the course of the war; they say the British have "a few people on site" in connection with the deployment of Storm Shadow missiles; they talk about Scholz's views on target control and what Germans can't do, etc. And the whole thing is a massive embarrassment and forces everyone who's been talking to the Germans to ask what else has been compromised. It's bad.
No doubt it is an embarrassment - but that is not the same as having your "top secret" communications intercepted. The Germans were sloppy and lazy - and the Russians lucky. As you so well know - details count, and everybody running around in a panic is EXACTLY what the Russians want. The proper response should have been to tell the Russians "Oh yeah? Deal with it."
That was great! Thank you, Claire! I hope you will make more.
Good! So glad you liked it! Any suggestions about what to call it?
Topic for Mr Oxley - what would it mean for British politics if the Conservatives did become the 3rd largest party at Westminster (as a few models suggest) this year?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-labour-sunak-hunt-starmer-budget-support-record-low-poll-b1142921.html
This is a very interesting question - one I want to go into in more detail in future on my blog, BUT in short it would be a cataclysmic change with a couple of potential outcomes. One would be for the rump of the party to be more completely captured by the right and become more of a nationalist/reactionary party. Even if this doesn't happen, it could lead to the rise of a more right wing party, like Reform, over the next couple of cycles.
Another possible scenario is that this opens up a window for a new centrist/centre-right party pulling off disaffected centrist Conservative voters, or for the Lib Dems to do so. David Gauke, a former Tory minister who left the party over Brexit has written about this here: https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/02/will-the-lib-dems-seize-their-chance-to-replace-the-tories
In the short term it would also mean the breakdown of a bunch of norms about how opposition really functions, especially if the Labour victory is on that scale. The last time a party collapsed this far was the Liberals a hundred years ago, so we don't have a huge amount of models to go on.
It would mean a ton of headlines that read, "The Strange Death of Tory England." Oh, and John, get with the program! We write *newsletters," not "blogs."
Thanks ... I guess a key determiner is who gets to keep their seats in that extreme. The Continuity Brexit-Braverman Faction and the Provisional Macmillanarian Path would each no doubt like to seize control after Sunak goes, but will they actually be in parliament to do so? I haven't seen the detail, but I think the 2019 nutters are generally more vulnerable...
I’m convinced that Gerhard Schröder, the exChancellor turned oligarch, knows where the SPD has buried the bodies. He must have kompromat on many senior SPD figures, like Steinmeier, Gabriel, Schwesig and ofc Olaf Scholz.
Now just wait a minute - the so-called "top secret" leak was a wiretap of an unclassified (which was obviously pretty lax and stupid) conversation which really didn't reveal any secrets. But it has been nicely spun by (guess who?) THE RUSSIANS! Jesus H Effing Christ, will everybody just settle down and get back to making 155mm shells?
There was quite a bit of militarily and diplomatically sensitive information in it. Air Force Inspector Ingo Gerhartz says he could imagine that 50 and then another 50 missiles would be delivered in a first tranche, but this wouldn't change the course of the war; they say the British have "a few people on site" in connection with the deployment of Storm Shadow missiles; they talk about Scholz's views on target control and what Germans can't do, etc. And the whole thing is a massive embarrassment and forces everyone who's been talking to the Germans to ask what else has been compromised. It's bad.
But I agree about "get back to making shells."
No doubt it is an embarrassment - but that is not the same as having your "top secret" communications intercepted. The Germans were sloppy and lazy - and the Russians lucky. As you so well know - details count, and everybody running around in a panic is EXACTLY what the Russians want. The proper response should have been to tell the Russians "Oh yeah? Deal with it."