Doran is not a Turkey expert, period. Not in the US, not anywhere. He's not even especially good at faking it. The US is full of expertise about Turkey--any of the authors I suggested in this newsletter would qualify. He doesn't, not even remotely. He doesn't actually seem to know much about Turkey at all, and I don't think he even pretends to.
As for the tweets, I looked at his account on Twitter to see them in context, and his inferential chain is all wrong--he hasn't *at all* been paying attention to what the candidates are saying. But I agree that the West shouldn't expect a magical savior in Kılıçdaroğlu, for the reasons I detailed in yesterday's chat (which you can still read).
Let's look at the tweets one by one.
1. “US enemies of Erdogan are building up this fantasy, a Kalicdaroglu who is going to be pro-US, pro-Israel, pro-YPG. That person, I think we can agree, doesn’t exist. Also, I am pro-Azerbaijan. KK’s map troubles me.” I don't know what US enemies of Erdoğan are saying, but I haven't seen this fantasy expressed by anyone who knows anything about Turkey. There may be some fools in Congress who are talking this way. But given this straw man, yes, we can agree that person doesn't exist: Turkey will *never* be pro-YPG, and it won't be all that warm to the US, either--unless we stop supporting the YPG. KK is apt to be cooperative with Israel, but not wildly enthusiastic about it. This will be better than Erdoğan, who hates Israel and has turned Turkey into a haven for the Muslim Brotherhood. KK is also highly unlikely to host, fund, sponsor, or encourage all the other Islamist groups and jihadis whom Erdoğan has nurtured over the years.
Turkey and Azerbaijan will be close; trust me. They share a language and an ethnicity--and most importantly, sadly, Turks and Armenians still hate each other. Turkey is very far from the transformation and historic reckoning it would have to experience for that to change. You can still be arrested in Turkey for affirming the Armenian Genocide (in principle, I don't know if that's happened in recent years). Azerbaijan, for Turkey, is like Canada to Americans--they think of it as their little brother. (Sorry, Canadians.) There is *no way* they're suddenly going to switch sides and form an alliance with Armenia. That's so improbable I can hardly believe he suggested it--it's akin to worrying that if Marine Le Pen wins, she's going to allow France to be overrun by Middle Eastern immigrants; i.e., it's the opposite of the right thing to worry about. KK's map, by the way, depicts the Silk Road. I don't know why he was showing it to viewers.
2. "Exactly right. If you think Kılıçdaroğlu’s interview with the WSJ is evidence that he will align with the US, then you either haven’t seen this map or you haven’t absorbed its meaning. The map tells you everything you need to know.” Um, no, it doesn't tell you everything you need to know--or anything at all. Again, I don't know why he's holding up that map, and I don't think Doran does, either. I'd have to figure out the context. But holding a map of the Silk Road--or perhaps China's Belt and Road project--does not suggest anything about what Turkey's foreign policy is apt to be should he win. If Doran has made a case elsewhere for why he thinks it does, I'm happy to read it. Otherwise, I recommend the articles I suggested in this newsletter for a sense of what might change and what might be the same if the opposition wins.
Thanks for the reply; it’s very informative. By the way, I did go back last night to read the chat. It was also very informative but the format is a bit clunky.
For Turkey’s sake, I hope a clear winner emerges. One of the real problems that we face all over the world is that the populations of many democratic nations are intensely divided by political party with each side having no tolerance for a victory by its opponents.
We see this, for example, when Trump won by a smidgen (in the electoral college) the first time and then lost by a smidgen the second time. When he won, his opponents became apoplectic. When he lost, he and his supporters became apoplectic. The same thing happened in Brazil. The recent election there was decided by half of one percent. Lula’s running around like he has a mandate while Bolsonaro’s supporters demanded that the military intervene.
The recent elections in Israel also prove the point. All five elections were decided by small margins and whether governing coalitions emerged from those elections or not, most of the country ended up feeling disenfranchised.
A perfect example of this was the revelation from the young American serviceman who leaked all of the classified material that the Mossad was encouraging its employees to support the recent Israeli demonstrations. It’s a remarkable revelation if true but perhaps not that remarkable given the recent interference by the CIA in American elections. It’s been reported that Vivian Bercovici who’s appeared here recently once worked for Black Cube (the private Israeli intelligence firm). If true, she certainly knows many current and former Mossad operatives. It would be interesting to know whether she believes the revelations are true.
Even in France, where Macron beat Le Pen by a large margin, a substantial portion of the country hates Macron’s guts with the white hot passion of a thousand suns.
In all of these nations, the comity that sustains democracy has collapsed or is collapsing yet few political analysts seem interested in exploring why. In fact, many of the people who might be expected to shed light on this phenomenon have retreated to their own tribes and seem to have lost the ability (or even interest) to ask probing questions. There are many examples of this including the contretemps around Trump’s recent appearance at a CNN “Town Hall.”
If the losing side tonight ends up feeling so aggrieved that they find the results intolerable, then everyone in Turkey loses. You know better than I whether this is the most likely outcome one way or the other.
I suspect that if KK is victorious, the Biden Administration will be delighted. But they were also gleeful when Lula won. How stupid they were. It took Lula only a matter of a few weeks to begin opposing and even ridiculing the United States at every turn. He did it with his friends from BRICs and he did it at every international forum he could find. Lula opposed American policy on Ukraine and he pleaded for a replacement of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The United States would have been far better off if Bolsonaro had emerged victorious. He was certainly less anti-American than Lula turned out to be.
Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute is as much of a Turkey expert as can be found in the United States. He says that Kalicdatoglu is a disaster in waiting for the United States. He believes that a victory by Erdogan’s opponent would be a big win for Russia, Iran, Armenia and anti-American forces throughout the world.
Much as Biden supported Lula’s victory in Brazil only to have Lula turn around and attack the United States in every available forum, would a Kalicdatoglu victory accomplish the same thing?
Here are some of Micael Doran’s tweets:
“US enemies of Erdogan are building up this fantasy, a Kalicdaroglu who is going to be pro-US, pro-Israel, pro-YPG. That person, I think we can agree, doesn’t exist. Also, I am pro-Azerbaijan. KK’s map troubles me.”
“Exactly right. If you think Kılıçdaroğlu’s interview with the WSJ is evidence that he will align with the US, then you either haven’t seen this map or you haven’t absorbed its meaning. The map tells you everything you need to know.”
Um, no, Doran is not as much of a Turkey expert as can be found in the United States. No. Trust me, he is not. I *really am* a Turkey expert. Although I do agree with those tweets.
Wish I could. Sorry to miss it. Will there be a recording?
No, it's a chat. But there will be a chat to read.
Claire you’re not in the United States, you’re an American in Paris.
Can I ask why you agree with those tweets?
Doran is not a Turkey expert, period. Not in the US, not anywhere. He's not even especially good at faking it. The US is full of expertise about Turkey--any of the authors I suggested in this newsletter would qualify. He doesn't, not even remotely. He doesn't actually seem to know much about Turkey at all, and I don't think he even pretends to.
As for the tweets, I looked at his account on Twitter to see them in context, and his inferential chain is all wrong--he hasn't *at all* been paying attention to what the candidates are saying. But I agree that the West shouldn't expect a magical savior in Kılıçdaroğlu, for the reasons I detailed in yesterday's chat (which you can still read).
Let's look at the tweets one by one.
1. “US enemies of Erdogan are building up this fantasy, a Kalicdaroglu who is going to be pro-US, pro-Israel, pro-YPG. That person, I think we can agree, doesn’t exist. Also, I am pro-Azerbaijan. KK’s map troubles me.” I don't know what US enemies of Erdoğan are saying, but I haven't seen this fantasy expressed by anyone who knows anything about Turkey. There may be some fools in Congress who are talking this way. But given this straw man, yes, we can agree that person doesn't exist: Turkey will *never* be pro-YPG, and it won't be all that warm to the US, either--unless we stop supporting the YPG. KK is apt to be cooperative with Israel, but not wildly enthusiastic about it. This will be better than Erdoğan, who hates Israel and has turned Turkey into a haven for the Muslim Brotherhood. KK is also highly unlikely to host, fund, sponsor, or encourage all the other Islamist groups and jihadis whom Erdoğan has nurtured over the years.
Turkey and Azerbaijan will be close; trust me. They share a language and an ethnicity--and most importantly, sadly, Turks and Armenians still hate each other. Turkey is very far from the transformation and historic reckoning it would have to experience for that to change. You can still be arrested in Turkey for affirming the Armenian Genocide (in principle, I don't know if that's happened in recent years). Azerbaijan, for Turkey, is like Canada to Americans--they think of it as their little brother. (Sorry, Canadians.) There is *no way* they're suddenly going to switch sides and form an alliance with Armenia. That's so improbable I can hardly believe he suggested it--it's akin to worrying that if Marine Le Pen wins, she's going to allow France to be overrun by Middle Eastern immigrants; i.e., it's the opposite of the right thing to worry about. KK's map, by the way, depicts the Silk Road. I don't know why he was showing it to viewers.
2. "Exactly right. If you think Kılıçdaroğlu’s interview with the WSJ is evidence that he will align with the US, then you either haven’t seen this map or you haven’t absorbed its meaning. The map tells you everything you need to know.” Um, no, it doesn't tell you everything you need to know--or anything at all. Again, I don't know why he's holding up that map, and I don't think Doran does, either. I'd have to figure out the context. But holding a map of the Silk Road--or perhaps China's Belt and Road project--does not suggest anything about what Turkey's foreign policy is apt to be should he win. If Doran has made a case elsewhere for why he thinks it does, I'm happy to read it. Otherwise, I recommend the articles I suggested in this newsletter for a sense of what might change and what might be the same if the opposition wins.
Thanks for the reply; it’s very informative. By the way, I did go back last night to read the chat. It was also very informative but the format is a bit clunky.
For Turkey’s sake, I hope a clear winner emerges. One of the real problems that we face all over the world is that the populations of many democratic nations are intensely divided by political party with each side having no tolerance for a victory by its opponents.
We see this, for example, when Trump won by a smidgen (in the electoral college) the first time and then lost by a smidgen the second time. When he won, his opponents became apoplectic. When he lost, he and his supporters became apoplectic. The same thing happened in Brazil. The recent election there was decided by half of one percent. Lula’s running around like he has a mandate while Bolsonaro’s supporters demanded that the military intervene.
The recent elections in Israel also prove the point. All five elections were decided by small margins and whether governing coalitions emerged from those elections or not, most of the country ended up feeling disenfranchised.
A perfect example of this was the revelation from the young American serviceman who leaked all of the classified material that the Mossad was encouraging its employees to support the recent Israeli demonstrations. It’s a remarkable revelation if true but perhaps not that remarkable given the recent interference by the CIA in American elections. It’s been reported that Vivian Bercovici who’s appeared here recently once worked for Black Cube (the private Israeli intelligence firm). If true, she certainly knows many current and former Mossad operatives. It would be interesting to know whether she believes the revelations are true.
Even in France, where Macron beat Le Pen by a large margin, a substantial portion of the country hates Macron’s guts with the white hot passion of a thousand suns.
In all of these nations, the comity that sustains democracy has collapsed or is collapsing yet few political analysts seem interested in exploring why. In fact, many of the people who might be expected to shed light on this phenomenon have retreated to their own tribes and seem to have lost the ability (or even interest) to ask probing questions. There are many examples of this including the contretemps around Trump’s recent appearance at a CNN “Town Hall.”
If the losing side tonight ends up feeling so aggrieved that they find the results intolerable, then everyone in Turkey loses. You know better than I whether this is the most likely outcome one way or the other.
I suspect that if KK is victorious, the Biden Administration will be delighted. But they were also gleeful when Lula won. How stupid they were. It took Lula only a matter of a few weeks to begin opposing and even ridiculing the United States at every turn. He did it with his friends from BRICs and he did it at every international forum he could find. Lula opposed American policy on Ukraine and he pleaded for a replacement of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The United States would have been far better off if Bolsonaro had emerged victorious. He was certainly less anti-American than Lula turned out to be.
Join us in the chat!
Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute is as much of a Turkey expert as can be found in the United States. He says that Kalicdatoglu is a disaster in waiting for the United States. He believes that a victory by Erdogan’s opponent would be a big win for Russia, Iran, Armenia and anti-American forces throughout the world.
Much as Biden supported Lula’s victory in Brazil only to have Lula turn around and attack the United States in every available forum, would a Kalicdatoglu victory accomplish the same thing?
Here are some of Micael Doran’s tweets:
“US enemies of Erdogan are building up this fantasy, a Kalicdaroglu who is going to be pro-US, pro-Israel, pro-YPG. That person, I think we can agree, doesn’t exist. Also, I am pro-Azerbaijan. KK’s map troubles me.”
“Exactly right. If you think Kılıçdaroğlu’s interview with the WSJ is evidence that he will align with the US, then you either haven’t seen this map or you haven’t absorbed its meaning. The map tells you everything you need to know.”
Um, no, Doran is not as much of a Turkey expert as can be found in the United States. No. Trust me, he is not. I *really am* a Turkey expert. Although I do agree with those tweets.