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RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
A Russian fighter jet has forced down a US Reaper drone over the Black Sea.
The United States military was forced to essentially crash its MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone because of the damage caused when it was struck by a Russian jet, the Pentagon said on Tuesday. “Because of the damage, we were in a position to have to essentially crash into the Black Sea,” Brigadier General Pat Ryder told reporters, adding that the drone was basically unflyable after the damage. Ryder said Russia had not recovered the crashed drone at this point.
The Russian defense ministry says Russian fighter jets didn’t use weapons or impact a US drone that went down after an encounter over the Black Sea. The ministry said the US drone was flying near the Russian border and intruded into an area declared off limits by Russian authorities. … The US military previously said that a Russian fighter jet struck the propeller of a US surveillance drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday in a “brazen violation of international law.”
Russian jets dumped fuel on the drone several times:
“Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,” the US statement said. “This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional.”
Context: Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling:
Moscow regularly uses limited military actions—far short of direct aggression but often creating escalatory risks—that have caused concern and consternation in Western capitals. It is, however, far from clear what Russia intends to signal through these actions. Different understandings of Moscow's objectives could lead to dramatically divergent interpretations of events … The authors found solid empirical grounds to make judgments about Russia's motives. They suggest that much of the assertive, dangerous, or unsafe Russian activity appears to be directed at shaping specific patterns of ongoing U.S. or allied behavior. Moscow appears to be using coercive signals to send targeted messages regarding activities that it finds problematic. Most Russian proactive activities, such as scheduled exercises or strategic bomber training flights, convey general deterrence signals and do not pose immediate safety concerns. Using their analysis of past Russian behavior, the authors provide tools to discern the possible motives behind future activities.
🧵 A thread by the author of the RAND study above:
The US has summoned the Russian ambassador. NATO allies have been briefed. Excitable headline writers are describing this as a “major escalation.”
Miscalculation fears rise after Russian fighter jet collides with US drone over Black Sea.
But I’m with this guy:
That’s why we use unmanned drones. It would be unfortunate, of course, if Russia recovers the wreckage before we do, given the value of the technology. But no one was hurt and no one wants a major escalation. This is not as big a deal as the headline-writers wish it were.
Update:
Claire—What does that mean? Your guess is as good as mine.
RAF and German jets intercept Russian aircraft near Estonian airspace. The interception itself was routine, but it is the first time such an operation has been carried out together by the two countries. The RAF is preparing to take over the lead on NATO’s Baltic air policing mission from the German air force in April.
Fierce fighting rages over central Bakhmut as Wagner mercenaries storm into the ruined city:
Late on March 12, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a Telegram post that his mercenaries began storming into the underground compound of the Artemivskyi non-ferrous metal processing plant, also known as AZOM, in northern Bakhmut. Neither Ukraine nor Russia officially commented on the situation at the plant on March 13. …
As fierce battles raged in the east and south of Ukraine, civilian casualties continued to be reported. The President’s Office said on March 13 that Russian troops launched two missiles at a school in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, killing a woman. To the northeast, the Russians launched a missile strike on the village of Znob-Novhorodske in Sumy Oblast, killing at least one and wounding four, according to the President’s Office. On the southern front, the Russians fired upon energy workers in a liberated area of Kherson Oblast, wounding one person, the regional military administration said.
Battle of Bakhmut: Ukrainian soldiers worry Russians have begun to “taste victory.”
Outgunned Ukrainian soldiers near Bakhmut wait for more Western ammo:
The fighting in the region has progressively devolved into gruesome trench warfare, prompting comparisons with the battles of Verdun or the Somme, and underlining the need for modern artillery systems—and an adequate supply of shells to fire. With Ukraine firing more than 5,000 artillery rounds each day by some estimates, ammunition for the country's artillery systems is running low. While the country inherited massive stocks of 152mm shells following the collapse of the Soviet Union, decades of mismanagement and months of intense fighting have left its artillerymen struggling to compete with the Russians, as the eastern front turns into a two-way artillery firing range.
A Russian missile struck Kramatorsk, killing at least one and wounding three.
Russia said it would extend the grain export deal, but only for 60 days.
★ From the Institute for the Study of War:
A member of the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of pursuing political objectives in Russia that are endangering Wagner forces in Bakhmut. Russian political scientist Aleksey Mukhin—who contributes to the Valdai Discussion Club and Russian state media—commented on Prigozhin’s March 11 sarcastic announcement that he will be running in the Ukrainian presidential election in 2024. … Mukhin rhetorically asked if Prigozhin notified Russian President Vladimir Putin about his “presidential ambitions.” …
Mukhin’s attack on Prigozhin is in line with ISW’s March 12 assessment that the Russian Ministry of Defense may be deliberately expending Wagner forces in Bakhmut in part to derail Prigozhin’s political aspirations. [Claire—Wow. That’s truly worthy of Stalin.] Mukhin’s accusations also support ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin and Russian MoD may be attempting to blame Prigozhin for the slowed pace of advance in Bakhmut and for high casualties among Wagner mercenaries.
Other key developments:
Ramzan Kadyrov continues trying to maintain Chechnya’s relevance in the Russian political and military sphere.
Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran to expand Belarus’s cooperation with Iran, especially in sanctions-busting.
Russian military bloggers are anticipating a Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. They’re growingly concerned about Ukrainian capabilities as Russian forces pin themselves down in Bakhmut.
A bill in the Duma bill raises the conscription age. This suggests the Kremlin has no immediate plans for full mobilization.
The Russian military is reportedly employing newly created “assault detachments” in a variety of tactical situations.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk confirmed that Russia has illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia.
Russian forces continued ground attacks throughout the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. They made marginal gains northeast of Kupyansk and east of Siversk.
They’ve advanced in and around Bakhmut, but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement of the city.
Russian forces continued their ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.
Ukrainian forces conducted raids against areas in the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
The subordination of mobilized Russian military personnel to Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic formations is generating growing discontent.
Russian occupation officials continue to introduce new provisions to discourage and restrict the use of Ukrainian in schools.
★ US security assistance to Ukraine is going to get complicated. (An excellent analysis by Max Bergstrom.)
… McCarthy is unlikely to bring any legislation to the floor that divides his caucus and could endanger his tenuous speakership. That unfortunately includes another supplemental appropriation for Ukraine, which a small but vocal minority of Republicans oppose. Instead of hoping that this political dynamic will magically change, both the Biden administration and Europe need to start preparing for this new reality.
… The administration will need to reallocate funding, use obscure authorities, and work creatively with Congress. This will also demand the Biden administration not just prioritize Ukraine but also politically assert itself to break through bureaucratic barriers and disputes. There will inevitably be issues that cause delays and place greater limitations on what the United States can provide. However, there are six potential options that the Biden administration could consider, should current funding for US assistance end. These six options will also require more European support, and a creative approach to asking for and then allocating monies in the US defense budget.
The six options, in short:
Keep using presidential drawdown authority to take equipment from Department of Defense stocks.
Redirect some of the Department of Defense’s budget.
Reallocate funding from security assistance programs in the State Department and the Department of Defense.
Request a significantly expanded security assistance budget for the State Department and Department of Defense.
Create a security assistance loan for Ukraine.
Use the Excess Defense Articles program in a deliberate fashion.
He concludes:
[T]he United States and Europe need to start thinking ahead to 2024. The risk is that without funding, the unity that the Biden administration has pushed so hard for could crack. … Europeans have been reassured by statements from White House and other officials that despite the change of control in Congress, American support will continue unabated. The administration should stop making those assurances and instead should let Europe know now that there could be future constraints on assistance.
Ron DeSantis’s mysterious position on Ukraine. Is the Florida Governor a hawk in sheep’s clothing?
… a closer examination of DeSantis’s statement to Carlson suggests that the Florida Governor’s dovish evolution may not be quite what it seems: “The US should not provide assistance that could require the deployment of American troops or enable Ukraine to engage in offensive operations beyond its borders. These moves would risk explicitly drawing the United States into the conflict and drawing us closer to a hot war between the world’s two largest nuclear powers,” [he said.]
The framing of this statement appears to be geared against what could happen rather than what is happening. Indeed, no one in the Biden administration has mooted the idea of deploying American troops or giving Ukraine the capability to stage operations beyond its borders. Instead, DeSantis warns against “further entanglements”, which serves as more of a warning than a critique of US Government policy. There is no mention of peace negotiations or a deal.
Claire—utterly wishful thinking.2
Ukraine invites Ron DeSantis to visit:
Ron DeSantis shows how Western unity on Ukraine may crack.
Putin holds a trump card in the 2024 US election:
There is little doubt that Putin’s best hope of winning his war in Ukraine is for NATO’s resolve to collapse and America’s supply of money and weapons to dry up. A Trump or DeSantis presidency would be Russia’s likeliest chance of disuniting the west. This is where Putin’s training as a KGB agent who can manipulate perceptions is relevant. The danger is not that he will cause America’s electorate to change its vote. The US generates more than enough of its own disinformation.
The risk is that the Kremlin leader will further cement the view on the MAGA right that Russia is the global champion of their anti-woke cause. Russian flags and T-shirts proclaiming “I would rather be a Russian than a Democrat” are a regular sight nowadays. … The key point about the Carlson-Putin symbiosis is that Ukraine is turning into a US cultural divide. Much like wearing masks identified you as a liberal in the pandemic, the Ukrainian flag has become a symbol of woke culture. … Second to the war on the ground, the battle Putin will be watching most closely is the Republican primaries. If all goes well for him, he will place his hopes on the general.
Claire—are those T-shirts really a regular sight?
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will be holding talks with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group today. Defense officials from nearly 50 countries have been convened for a virtual meeting at the Pentagon to discuss Ukraine’s requirements. Ammunition will probably be high on the agenda.
★ Denmark plans to establish a billion-dollar fund to aid Ukraine in 2023:
Some development aid will be redirected to pay for the initiative, as well as an easing of financial policy. The aid will be three-pronged, with the biggest chunk being military aid of around 5.4 billion kroner in 2023. Civilian aid for humanitarian and long-term reconstruction efforts will receive around 1.2 billion kroner, while 400 million kroner will go to business initiatives. … In addition, the government will allocate funds in 2024-2027 to cover the cost of replacing the military aid given to Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.
Court documents suggest a well-connected Russian used a secret network to supply local defense contractors with US-made chips, evading Western sanctions.
From authoritarianism to totalitarianism: How the war has changed Russia:
[The] biggest change is one not of degree but of kind: the regime now seeks not to demobilize the population from politics but to mobilize it behind the war. This demand for active support, not merely acquiescence, marks a fundamental shift from authoritarianism to totalitarianism. State media and the Orthodox Church now serve up a vitriolic and hysterical diet of wartime propaganda, while educational facilities inculcate such messaging in the nation’s youth. The militarization of Russian society is underway. But despite public (and sometimes shrilly performative) expressions of support, there are few signs of genuine mass enthusiasm for the war. Escalating repression suggests the Kremlin lacks confidence that the war is—or will remain—popular.
… State control over the economy is growing as it moves toward a war footing and businesses come under pressure to produce materiel for the war effort. Sanctions are harming economic growth, disrupting supply chains, and have cut off Russia’s elites from the West. The domestic business environment is becoming more unpredictable and violent. Armed crime has risen by 30 percent. … There are no signs yet that the Kremlin’s breaking of key social contracts is bringing the system close to crisis. But the strains it faces will deepen.
A year of war has left Russia’s elites anchorless and atomized. They are not yet ready to come together to generate a vision for the future. Nor do they want to lose their assets, freedom, or their lives.
★ The West has no goal in the Russo-Ukraine war:
… So far, the policy has been “to make sure Ukraine doesn’t lose” but not to ensure it wins. The West has been increasingly supplying Ukraine with more and more powerful weapons, but always in insufficient amounts and always with a delay that does not change the tide of the conflict to Kyiv’s advantage. … The attention is focused on Bakhmut, but as bne IntelliNews has argued earlier, the goal of the Wagner PMC there is not to take the town per se but simply wear the Ukrainian forces down and use up Kyiv’s resources that could have otherwise been used in a mooted spring counter-offensive that is looking increasingly unlikely to happen, due to the dwindling resources. Wagner is throwing wave after wave of former convicts conscripted into the Wagner units into the fight with horrific casualty rate. Some five Russian soldiers are killed for every one Ukrainian—an unsustainable mortality rate even with Russia’s three-to-one population advantage. … Russia is using tanks in battle “in large numbers,” so those absent Leopards are sorely missed. … Without a change in Western policy to provide Ukraine not only with the defensive weapons to prevent it losing, but to provide it with offensive weapons like the promised tanks, the default outlook is that the fighting will grind on all summer with neither side making much progress, but with an ever increasing death toll.
This policy seems to be the actual Western strategy: to allow the war to continue until both sides are exhausted and prepared to start real peace talks – and to make sure Ukraine has the strongest hand possible when those talks start.
★ Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow:
The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive. …
… an influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field. … Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital. An inability by Ukraine to execute a much-hyped counteroffensive would fuel new criticism that the United States and its European allies waited too long, until the force had already deteriorated, to deepen training programs and provide armored fighting vehicles, including Bradleys and Leopard battle tanks. …
… the situation for Russia may be worse. During a NATO meeting last month, UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace said that 97 percent of Russia’s army was already deployed in Ukraine and that Moscow was suffering “First World War levels of attrition.” … One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a “symbolic” amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.
Claire—If Biden screws this up the way he screwed up Afghanistan, history won’t be kind to him. Get Ukraine the weapons it needs now, for the love of God!
🧵 Counterpoint: Malcomn Nance says this article is nonsense:
🎧 Podcast: How to think about Bakhmut and a Ukrainian spring offensive. The battle for Bakhmut. Munitions shortages and force structure. Artillery and attrition. Russia’s unimpressive offensive. What the West needs to do to set Ukraine up for success in a spring offensive.
EUROPE
SVB’s ripple effects:
HSBC swooped in to rescue the UK arm of Silicon Valley Bank, purchasing it for £1, after frantic talks among the chancellor, the prime minister, the Bank of England governor, HSBC bosses, and civil servants:
Although its US parent was in financial trouble, Silicon Valley Bank UK was in reasonable financial health … It had adequate capital and was making reasonable profits. Bank of England sources confirmed this weekend’s intervention was more a preventive strike before the collapse of its US parent sparked mass withdrawals from the UK business. What that means is that HSBC got one hell of a deal which it owed to its size and strength—with regulators confident that Europe’s largest bank could easily take on any risk from SVB UK's customers.
A Crédit Suisse annual report uncovered weak financial controls.
Crédit Suisse’s stock plunged after a top shareholder ruled out further investment.
Worth the seven minutes: Why Europe romanticizes Russia:
★ A year after the Zeitenwende speech, Germany’s chancellor has yet to deliver on the radical change he promised. It appears Ostpolitik is being quietly repackaged, with regrettable consequences for Central and Eastern Europe:
… Scholz continues to stall on his promise to increase German defense spending to 2 percent of the country’s GDP. Meanwhile, researchers at St. Gallen’s University estimate that more than 50 percent of Western companies remaining in Russia are German and that, of all the EU and G7 firms who have kept operating Russian subsidiaries, about one-fifth are German. Political pressure from Berlin has, in fact, been more rhetorical than concrete—and has failed to produce the massive withdrawal portrayed in the media.
Central and Eastern Europeans have long been collateral damage of Ostpolitik’s aims. In the policy’s original heyday, Social Democratic Party officials actively discouraged struggles for human rights that arose in the bloc. … Then, as in recent years, German officials believed Ostpolitik required acknowledging rather than undermining Russian power. Referring to Eastern Europe, former US Ambassador to Germany John Kornblum summarized Germany’s disposition: “Their government just doesn’t take those countries seriously.”
The Seimas (parliament) of Lithuania has univocally adopted a resolution to designate Evgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group as a terrorist organization.
Moldova’s war on Russian saboteurs. Putin naively hoped it would become the next Ukraine. But Moldova is holding on:
… Since February 24, 2022, Moldova has reportedly weathered 400 false bomb threats. Pro-Russian actors such as exiled oligarch Ilan Shor have escalated protests in the capital Chișinău while leveraging Facebook ads to drive online influence operations in the country on Russia’s behalf. Moldovan security forces said they recently detained alleged Russian FSB agents who were orchestrating destabilising protests, and barred a potential Wagner member from entering the country. Yet perhaps most dramatically, over the last few weeks, Ukrainian, American, and Moldovan intelligence have each confirmed that Russia is using the anti-government protests as cover to try to stage a coup against the Moldovan state. All the while, Russia has hammered the country with disinformation about Ukraine’s intentions to threaten Transnistria, whose leaders alleged this month that Ukraine had been preparing plans to assassinate several members of its government.
The Georgian Parliament withdrew a contentious foreign agent Bill after it sparked massive protests:
Huge protests against a now-dropped law in Georgia that would have obliged foreign-funded entities and individuals to register with the state were quickly compared to Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution. For some, images of water cannons and tear gas being turned on civilians waving EU flags illustrated another clear moral conflict, with a pro-Western populace desperate to throw off the yoke of a Putin-friendly government. There may be truth in such portrayals, but there is danger too. EU diplomatic sources see the situation in Georgia as a complicated picture in which there are no easy answers, but a real risk of bloodshed.
Like clockwork: Russia casts Georgia protests as coup attempt, accuses West of fomenting unrest.
The days-long demonstrations point to turmoil over the future in Georgia, which aims to join the EU and NATO, much to the frustration of Moscow, which invaded in 2008 and recognized two separatist territories in the north of the country. “There is no doubt that the law on the registration of non-governmental organizations ... was used as an excuse to start, generally speaking, an attempt to change the government by force,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
Like clockwork: Bosnian Serb leader to copy law on foreign agents that sparked mass protests in Georgia:
… Dodik’s move was seen as disturbing by the EU delegation in Bosnia. “Any unfounded limitation of the effective exercise of fundamental rights and freedoms, including the right to association (and expression), is in itself contrary to the aspirations of Bosnia & Herzegovina to progress on the European path,” [said the head of the EU Delegation]. He added that planned law could significantly reduce the space for civic engagement, which is unacceptable for the EU. Dodik claims that this law mirrors US legislation. However, the US embassy to Bosnia reacted strongly to the planned bill, saying it was inspired by the Kremlin. “We have seen this movie before, and we know how it ends. When Russia expanded its foreign agent legislation in 2020, it too claimed that it was merely copying the US model. Nothing could have been further from the truth, and we have seen the results. Russian authorities have used their repressive legislation to suppress dissent, eviscerate civil society, and eradicate free media,” the US embassy said … [It added] that the US legislation was diametrically opposed to this model and condemned Republika Srpska’s ruling party for attempting to change laws only to help its efforts to consolidate power.
The US also condemned another planned legislative move by Republika Srpska: to amend its criminal code criminalizing defamation and insults and imposing jail sentences for the publication of video, photos or documents without consent.
★ Sunak pulls a Brexit rabbit out of his hat. Northern Ireland’s border problem may finally have an solution:
For the moment, it seems Sunak has achieved something his predecessors hoped to manage but never could. The left-wing press, normally critical of Brexit as a project and the Conservatives as a party, say that Sunak appears to have pulled off a minor triumph—so much so that the opposition Labour Party might want to stop talking about Brexit for a while. But Sunak’s success remains in the hands of Britain’s right and Northern Ireland’s unionists. His deal will live or die based on whether they have finally, at long last, developed a taste for diplomacy and compromise.
Fears of a rat invasion as garbage strike hits Paris. The politicians are sniping at each other on Twitter about who’s to blame:
Garbage bags could be seen piling up on the sidewalks of Paris over the weekend—especially in areas with many restaurants—forming shoulder-high piles of waste. That’s because the city’s garbage collectors have been on strike since March 6 in protest at a controversial reform of France’s pension system championed by President Emmanuel Macron. The reform would increase the age of retirement for garbage collectors—who can at present retire early with reduced benefits on account of the hardship of their work, which has been shown to affect their life expectancy—from 57 to 59. As a consequence, around 5,600 tons of uncollected waste lay in the streets of the capital on Monday—day eight of the strike—according to the Paris mayor’s office … “It’s shitty, it’s not pretty and it smells,” said Mathilde Boyer, 23, who lives in the southern 15th district. …
But people aren’t just worried about a few garbage bags—the real issue is that Paris, like most large cities, is infested with rats. For every person living in Paris, there are 1.5 to 1.75 rats, making the City of Lights is one of the most infested cities in the world, and prompting the French National Medicine Academy to issue a warning last July about the “threat to the human health” posed by rats and the diseases they can pass on to humans.
Claire—Strange but true: The rats can smell the cats on me from miles away. I’ve been here for years. I’ve seen maybe two rats, total. My neighbors complain the building is infested by mice, too. But they’re sure not visiting my apartment. I’ve never seen so much as a mouse whisker.
Wise mice.
Middle East
Iran:
The Iranian regime is preparing to deploy its security services to deter and probably crack down on planned demonstrations during the upcoming Iranian holidays.
Student poisonings occurred in Iranian provinces that saw significant protest activity during the Mahsa Amini protest movement. The regime will likely use these attacks to justify continued securitization ahead of Chahar Shanbeh Souri and Nowrouz holidays.
Iranian public figures continue to suggest that the regime or regime-adjacent actors are in some way responsible for the poisoning campaign.
Regime efforts to suppress and silence political dissent may inadvertently intensify anti-regime sentiment among the Iranian public:
Iranian authorities reportedly arrested and forced a group of girls from Tehran who posted a video of themselves dancing without hijab on International Women’s Day to “confess” on camera on March 13. The regime seemingly views such forceful responses as the most effective way to prevent further public displays of anti-regime sentiment. These actions, however, not only give more attention to the very anti-regime activities the regime seeks to suppress but also exacerbates citizens’ frustrations with the regime. Following reports that Iranian authorities were tracking down the “Ekbatan Girls,” many individuals across Iran posted videos of themselves performing this group’s dance. This indicates that the regime’s strategy of forcefully cracking down on political dissent—instead of curbing anti-regime activity—may have the unintended consequence of spreading and solidifying anti-regime sentiment among the Iranian people. Some Iranian men are similarly wearing the hijab to ridicule the regime. Iranian social media users recently circulated photos of male pharmacists in Iran wearing the hijab in response to the regime’s closure of several pharmacies where Iranian authorities discovered unveiled women. By publicly mocking the regime, these men are demonstrating that they are not intimidated by the regime’s threats and violence.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on March 13 to expand bilateral cooperation and bolster sanctions mitigations.
At least three protests occurred on March 11, ten protests on March 12, and 17 protests on March 13.
The US is skeptical of the Middle East deal brokered by Beijing. The Administration is hopeful the pact will ease bloodshed, but officials fear Tehran won’t honor it:
Under the agreement announced Friday, Riyadh and Tehran will reopen their respective embassies within two months, restoring diplomatic ties for the first time in seven years. Tehran agreed to stop encouraging cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Riyadh agreed to tone down critical coverage of Iran by a Farsi-language news channel funded by Saudi business interests. … Officials in Washington hope the deal will immediately calm the situation in Yemen, where Houthi rebels have been fighting the Saudi-backed government. But a senior Biden administration official said Monday that both Washington and Riyadh were “skeptical” that Iran would adhere to the terms of the two-month road map, which would curtail weapons and other support from Tehran to the Houthi fighters.
Efforts to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran began two years ago, in a round of talks led by Iraq and Oman. US officials said Saudi Arabia kept Washington apprised of the developments, but that the US didn’t participate directly in the discussions. “We’ve been there supporting it in every step of the way,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday. “Anything that would serve to de-escalate tensions and prevent conflict is in our interest.” But the pact seems unlikely to break, and may even reinforce, a stalemate in efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers. And China’s role as an intermediary—and its plans to hold a summit of Arab and Iranian leaders this year—has led many to wonder whether Beijing had supplanted US influence in the region.
How China’s Saudi-Iran deal can serve US interests. And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye:
In brokering a deal to resurrect diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Chinese President Xi Jinping has achieved a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. This is new: China usually refrains from playing a mediating role at all, let alone in the Middle East. And on the surface, it’s significant: Beijing and Moscow—as well as critics of the Biden administration in Washington—have characterized the agreement as a setback for US influence and status in the Middle East and around the world.
Dig a little deeper, however, and the sky is not falling for Washington. On the contrary, while the deal may have temporarily damaged some of the United States’ interests in the region, the upside could significantly outweigh the downside, in both the short and the long terms. …
The Saudi-Iran pact is no triumph for China. American influence in the Middle East may be declining, but the real winner is Russia:
[The] deal is a sign of waning American influence in the region. China and Iran collaborated to present the pact with the Saudis in a way that humiliated the US, and its framing in much of the press as a Chinese diplomatic triumph has given them what they sought. … Russia has been a strategic ally of Iran’s since at least the late 1980s. Wherever one goes, from Syria to Ukraine to Latin America, the other is right there alongside—and China is not far behind. This tripartite axis was broadly accommodated by the US’s principal Middle Eastern allies: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and even Israel. The shift became even clearer on the realization that Trump’s primary difference from Obama in foreign policy was rhetorical, with many of these allies going through Moscow to make their terms.
The possibility of this latest deal reducing regional “tensions” is based on the idea that instability is rooted in a two-sided “sectarian proxy war” between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Really, though, the trouble stems from the regime in Iran exporting its Revolution through subversion and terrorism against its neighbors. To the extent that this deal has any effect, it will be to enable that project.
The Iran-Saudi Deal is uncomfortable. Welcome it anyway:
The deal serves the primary US regional interest in maintaining stability to promote the free flow of oil and liquefied natural gas. The risk of conflict had been rising. Given current Iranian conventional capabilities, a military escalation between Iran and Saudi Arabia could produce devastating consequences for the world economy. …
The Chinese diplomatic “win” here is rightly uncomfortable for the US, but the U.S. was not in a position to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia under the current circumstances. … China’s presence reflects the broader trend toward multipolarity globally, as well as a gradual movement toward more arms-length relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. But the deal does not herald a slide toward a Pax Sinica in the region. China has no interest in becoming involved in the sort of costly interventions the US has undertaken in the region, and also has not attempted to sell its most sophisticated military hardware. Saudi Arabia, even today, would have trouble replacing its US military system rapidly due to the cost, as it focuses on diversifying its economy before oil demand eventually starts to wane.
China’s Iran-Saudi deal bigger than it looks:
The consequences of the agreement could be massive. If the peace holds in Yemen, [China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia] could stretch their influence to Africa through Islamic Eritrea and Christian Ethiopia, just across Djibouti, home of a Chinese base.
On the northeast, good old ties between China and the Saudis with Pakistan could help get Islamabad’s support in stabilizing Afghanistan. If that works, China would basically have a land route from its Western region of Xinjiang to resource-rich Africa, bypassing the Indian Ocean and the watch of New Delhi and the US Navy.
China steps up, a new era has dawned in world politics:
The US’ humiliating exclusion from the center stage of West Asian politics constitutes a “Suez moment” for the superpower, comparable to the crisis experienced by the UK in 1956, which obliged the British to sense that their imperial project had reached a dead end and the old way of doing things—whipping weaker nations into line as ostensible obligations of global leadership —was no longer going to work and would only lead to disastrous reckoning.
The stunning part here is the sheer brain power and intellectual resources and “soft power” that China has brought into play to outwit the US. The US has at least 30 military bases in West Asia—five in Saudi Arabia alone—but it has lost the mantle of leadership. … What we are seeing is a new China under the leadership of Xi Jinping trotting over the high knoll.
Iran now appears to be looking to normalize ties with Bahrain. It follows a wider attempt by Iran to renew relations and improve ties across the Gulf:
Bahrain would be the next logical choice as it is close to Saudi Arabia in foreign policy terms. When the Abraham Accords were signed, Riyadh backed both Bahrain and the UAE in their normalization with Israel. Additionally, during the Arab Spring when there were threats to Bahrain, Riyadh backed intervention to support the monarchy.
Israeli strikes on Syria kill pro-Iran fighters:
Israeli airstrikes targeting a weapons depot in Syria on Sunday killed two pro-Iran fighters and wounded three soldiers, a war monitor said. “Israeli strikes targeted a weapons depot belonging to pro-Iran forces located... between Tartus and Hama provinces,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Claire—the ISW thinks Israel is responding to reports that Iran is increasing its efforts to smuggle precision-guided munitions into Syria or to manufacture them there. According to the Israeli media, the IRGC has converted Syrian military research facilities in Hama province into production and storage facilities for mid- and long-range missiles.
Turkey plans to continue normalization talks with Assad:
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar asserted that Ankara will continue the talks with Damascus after the upcoming technical meetings are held in Moscow between the deputy foreign ministers of Türkiye, Russia, Syria and Iran. … Akar added that Ankara is waiting for Damascus to understand its position on the YPG, the military backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces, on Syrian territory. …
However, Damascus made conditions to continue the normalization talks. It stipulated the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria, Ankara’s cessation of its support for the Syrian opposition, and the designation as terrorist the armed factions loyal to it under the Syrian National Army.
Claire—Turkey is no way, no how, going to withdraw its forces, so I don’t see this getting very far.
🎧 Podcast: Turkey’s more independent foreign policy. I haven’t listened to this yet and can’t vouch for it, but I put it on my list because one of the guests is Aaron Stein, whom I know from my time in Turkey, and he’s both smart and hardworking, so it’s probably useful. Try it and tell me if I’m right.
Hey, do you ever listen to the podcasts I recommend? Are they worth including?
President Isaac Herzog will reveal a compromise proposal over Israeli plans to radically overhaul the judicial system this evening:
Herzog says he will unveil his “People’s Framework” for changes in the judicial system. The expected reveal sparked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to delay his flight to Berlin and hold consultations with coalition leaders, reports said. … Herzog has warned the judicial overhaul and opposition to it could lead to imminent conflict and even potential bloodshed.
★ A last, desperate, long-shot plea: Prime Minister Netanyahu, stop this madness. Your coalition will fracture if you abandon your judicial revolution? Wonderful. Tune out the extremists, assert your Zionism, and reverse the staggering damage you’re inflicting:3
You know that this country cannot be sustained if it is not democratic. Some of its best brains will not stay here. The economy will tank. Many taxpayers will not tolerate an increasingly discriminatory burden in which, among other things, they are subsidizing a fast-growing ultra-Orthodox sector that, under your coalition agreements, will be exempted by law from performing military or national service and educated in large part without the core skills to contribute to the workforce, its young males financially incentivized to study Torah full-time.
And perhaps most alarming, you know many citizens will not send their children to serve in the army of an Israel that is not a Jewish democratic state.
The combination of the judicial revolution and the policies that are unfolding and will unfold once the court has been marginalized—the plans for legalized discrimination, for annexation of West Bank territory and widespread settlement expansion, for the assault on non-Orthodox Judaism, et al—are destroying your own stated prime ministerial goals. Ties with the United States, crucial if Israel is to face down the existential threat of a nuclear Iran, are fraying. The Jews of the Diaspora, whom you desire to represent and who want to look to Israel as a source of pride, as a potential home and in some cases an essential refuge, are in ferment—over the threat to democracy, the threat to change the Law of Return, the threat to religious pluralism. Investment in the tech-driven economy you helped nurture and know Israel must sustain is at risk, as overseas confidence in Israel’s rule of law and stability ebbs. Your own oft-declared plans to widen the circle of regional peace, notably to include Saudi Arabia, are evaporating as the Palestinian conflict escalates, and existing partnerships are eroding. Biden won’t so much as invite you to visit; nor, either, will the leaders of the United Arab Emirates.
Egypt’s dissidents abroad denied identity documents:
The Egyptian authorities in recent years have systematically refused to provide or renew the identity documents of dozens of dissidents, journalists, and human rights activists living abroad … The refusal is apparently intended to pressure them to return to near-certain persecution in Egypt. … It has effectively undermined their ability to travel, live, and work legally and sometimes jeopardized their ability to obtain essential medical care and educational services or reunite with other family members.
Asia
Edward Luttwak thinks China’s military might is a myth:
The declared total of China’s newly increased defense budget at 1.56 trillion yuan amounts to US$230 billion, according to the current exchange rate. If that were the case, it would mean that China is falling further behind the United States, whose own fiscal 2023 defence spending is increasing to $797 billion ... a manpower shortage undercuts military spending in the PLA’s ground forces and naval forces, and soon it will affect manned air units as well. The PLA ground forces now stand at some 975,000, a very small number for a country that has 13,743 miles of borders with 14 countries—including extreme high-mountain borders where internal combustion engines lose power, jungle-covered borders where remote observation is spoiled by foliage, Russian-river borders with endemic smuggling, and the border with India’s Ladakh where an accumulation of unresolved Chinese intrusions have forced each side to deploy substantial ground forces, with at least 80,000 on the Chinese side.
Except for Ladakh, which now resembles a war-front, borders are not supposed to be guarded by army troops but by border police. And China did in fact have a substantial dedicated border force, but it was abolished for the same reason that the PLA ground army is so small: a crippling shortage of physically fit Chinese men willing to serve in these regions.
★ US-led alliances slowly but surely encircling China:
At once, two different trilateral alliances are emerging, both built around America’s “integrated deterrence” strategy amid intensified fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the near-term future. On one hand, the US, UK and Australia have taken a fateful step in their AUKUS alliance by greenlighting the production of a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, drawing on cutting-edge Rolls-Royce nuclear reactors. …
Meanwhile, there is a burgeoning Japan-Philippines-US (JAPHUS) trilateral alliance in the making with similar strategic objectives and even greater geographic immediacy. The upshot is a fast-emerging tripartite defense framework, which will be indispensable to an effective deterrence strategy against China over Taiwan and the broader First Island Chain theater.
Pakistan’s government is trying to arrest former Prime Minister Imran Khan:
Pakistani police prepared to arrest former Prime Minister Imran Khan in his home in Lahore on Tuesday, hundreds of his supporters flocked to his side, leading to clashes. Law enforcement fired tear gas and water cannons at them outside the Zaman Park residence.
Amid the disturbance, Khan shared a rallying cry in a video posted to Twitter. “Police are here to send me to jail. They think if Imran Khan goes to jail, this nation will go to sleep. You have to prove them wrong,” he said in the video. “[If] something happens to me, if they send me to jail, or if I am killed, you have to show you can fight without me as well.”
A Lahore court said Khan can’t be arrested until 10am on Thursday. Security forces have withdrawn from his residence owing to a cricket match, giving rise to “a celebratory roar” among supporters of his Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf party:
Translation: “A moment of joy for the workers who had been fighting for 21 hours to return Nafri from the gate of Imran Khan's residence for the third time. Respect.”
Federal information minister Marriyum Aurangzeb claims that police from Gilgit-Baltistan attacked security forces deployed at Khan’s home.
Xi plans Russia visit as early as next week, sooner than expected.
North Korea’s increasing nuclear threats, along with concerns about China’s ambitions, is pushing the United States to beef up its Asian alliances. In the past year, North Korea has been steadily expanding its nuclear arsenal, as China and Russia repeatedly blocked US-led efforts to toughen sanctions on the North despite its barrage of banned missile tests.
The South Korean-US drills include a computer simulation and several combined field training exercises. South Korean officials said the field exercises would return to the scale of the allies' earlier largest field training that was last held in 2018.
“Annihilate the enemy.” North Korea confirms two missile launches:
… “Saying that they will surely annihilate the enemy if they fight it, the commander of the unit resolved to thoroughly have the ability to fully carry out its duty of fire assault any time by further intensifying the training of every fire assault company,” [state news agency] KCNA said.
South Korea’s military announced on Tuesday it had detected the North Korean launches, the latest to take place during the 11 days of joint exercises between South Korea and the United States known as Freedom Shield that Pyongyang considers a rehearsal for invasion and proof of the two countries’ hostility. In recent days, Pyongyang has tested weaponry including a submarine-launched weapon, and short-range ballistic missiles.
Kim Jong Un “probably” will test a nuclear device again in his drive to build a nuclear arsenal that he sees as “the ultimate guarantor” of his rule, says the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
★ Kim Jong Un executes his own spy for Googling him. Even top-level intelligence officials cannot access the internet without permission in North Korea:
An official from North Korean Secret agency was allegedly executed by the nation’s army for allegedly reading about the dictator Kim Jong-un on Google. The unnamed agent risks being executed [sic] by firing squad for having the audacity to read about the dictator from within Bureau 10, the covert organization that keeps tabs on both internal and external contacts in the oppressive state.4
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol hailed growing cooperation with Japan on issues from North Korea to semiconductors, saying it was part of a historic “new chapter.”
Both South Korea and Japan are ramping up defense spending and joint military exercises, which Yoon said were essential for regional and global stability. “There is an increasing need for Korea and Japan to cooperate in this time of a polycrisis with North Korean nuclear and missile threats escalating,” Yoon said. “We cannot afford to waste time while leaving strained Korea-Japan relations unattended. I believe we must end the vicious cycle of mutual hostility and work together to seek our two countries’ common interests.”
(Claire—good news. I’d like to think the quiet lubricant of US diplomacy helped.)
Bain & Co reports that India created twice as many unicorns as China last year for the second year in a row:
Within Asia-Pacific, the share of India-focused VC investments reached 20 percent for the first time, and India continued to account for ~5% of global VC funding in line with 2021. For the second time in a row, the number of unicorns added in India (23) outpaced China (11), and India marked the addition of its 100th unicorn (Open Technologies) in May 2022.5
★ Aid dwindles for Rohingya refugees:
The world’s largest refugee encampment, home at the moment to roughly 1 million Rohingya, is set to receive less than half the funding required to support it this year amid a drastic drop in donations, according to United Nations and Bangladeshi officials. International donors, including the United States, have redirected their money to Ukraine and other crises. …
Funding has been on a downward trend since 2019, but only began reaching critical levels last year, UN leaders say. Of the $881 million sought by aid agencies and the Bangladeshi government from international donors, only 62 percent was fulfilled, according to the United Nations. “The prospects this year are even worse,” said Johannes van der Klaauw, Bangladesh country director for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.
Africa
★ Militants linked to al Qaeda take control in northern Mali:
Al Qaeda’s Sahel branch, Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM), is filling the security vacuum in northern Mali following the French withdrawal in 2022. JNIM is establishing itself as the primary partner and power broker for former rebel groups and communities in the north, an area where the Malian government has historically lacked presence. These communities face rising violence from both the Islamic State and the Russian Wagner Group, which partners with the Malian government. This trend will likely lead to JNIM establishing de facto control over northern Mali, a takeover that will feed long-term instability in Mali and its neighbors and increase the resources and opportunities available to al Qaeda in Africa.
The French withdrawal created a security vacuum in northern Mali. The end of France’s counterterrorism mission in November 2022 significantly reduced counterterrorism pressure that had disrupted the Salafi-jihadi militants’ freedom of movement. The Malian government has remained largely absent from northern Mali. The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is not designed to serve an active counterterrorism role.
Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns made whirlwind visits to Benghazi and Tripoli on January 12, asking contending Libyan leaders to expel roughly a thousand Russian personnel and help organize nationwide elections. But despite being the most senior US official to set foot in Libya in years, Burns is unlikely to get his wishes any time soon.
What stands in the way is an intricate deadlock that has lingered across the divided country for months. Part of that can be attributed to the geographic distribution of hydrocarbons, which favors rebel commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his so-called Libyan National Army. The Field Marshal’s failure in his 2019-2020 attempt to take Tripoli did little to jeopardize his control in the oil-rich east and south. Today, irrespective of Burns’ requests, Haftar refuses to share his strategic territories with Libyan rivals. In doing so, he enjoys the support of not only Russia but also US partners Egypt and Saudi Arabia, not to mention France and Greece. Meanwhile, in the country’s northwest, Turkey uses its military presence to keep incumbent Prime Minister Abd al Hamid Dabaiba in power, long past the expiration of his mandate. Against such a rigid backdrop, any attempt to force a diplomatic breakthrough could upset the ongoing calm and plunge parts of the country back into prolonged conflict.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Algiers wants to have it both ways: Perceived as a privileged ally of Moscow, Algeria has announced the reopening of its embassy in Kyiv “as soon as possible.”
Death toll from Cyclone Freddy tops 200 in Malawi and Mozambique:
John Witman, in his 80s, dressed in a raincoat and woollen hat with his ten family members in tow, stood in front of what had been his son-in-law's home. It was now just rocks and gushing water, the house having been swept away. “I wish that we could find him, and find closure. We feel helpless because no one is here to help us,” he said.6
South Sudan on edge as political rows escalate:
South Sudan was on Friday night waiting for a spinning coin to settle from a meeting between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, part of efforts to ease tensions stemming from the controversial sacking of some government officials. … President Kiir and Dr Machar met at the presidential palace in Juba after the SPLM-IO kicked off a storm over the sacking of Defence Minister Angelina Teny, who is also Machar’s wife, on March 4.
This development caused such bad blood that Juba watchers worried about a possible slip into civil war. Some Ugandan media reported that President Kiir had earlier in the week reached out to President Yoweri Museveni for military help in case things in Juba spun out of control.
★ Blinken to visit Ethiopia as progress under Tigray peace deal slows:
Blinken is making two stops in Africa, including in Niger, aimed at burnishing relations with key players on the continent amid growing Chinese influence and worries over the expanding reach of Russian mercenaries. It is the fourth high-profile visit to Africa by senior Biden administration officials this year. …
Tigray has still not formed an interim government, a move that should clear the way for the release of thousands of prisoners, a budget to pay cash-strapped civil servants, and the unbanning of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the political party that controls Tigray. Until an administration is formed, the government will not pay doctors, teachers and civil servants the back wages they are owed or release funds to repair schools, hospitals and clinics, many of them deliberately destroyed in the fighting.
Ethiopia is not ready for transitional justice: Washington should not engage with the country’s government unless it pursues accountability for war crimes:
… In a debate between those favoring condemnation versus engagement, the latter group seems to have gained the upper hand. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, on Tuesday. The United Nations Human Rights Council is also about to hear a report this month on Ethiopia and possibly vote on the future of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia. Not surprisingly, therefore, the Ethiopian government is keen on proposing a transitional justice process—on its terms. Although the world should rejoice at the prospect of transitional justice in the wake of a bloody civil war that claimed around 600,000 lives—according to Olusegun Obasanjo, Horn of Africa envoy for the African Union—Ethiopia is unfortunately unprepared to embark on this task.
Americas
★ Bomb Mexico to what end? History suggests that military force can beat terrorists but not drug trafficking:
… The latest bromide aimed at combating the availability of dangerous drugs in the US comes from conservatives inside the Beltway, who propose to use the US military to take out the cartels by striking Mexico, our sovereign, democratic neighbor. This isn’t only insane, it’s unlikely to alter the availability of street narcotics in the US
The recent saber-rattling by American conservatives is the best thing that has happened to Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in his four years in office. … Mr. López Obrador’s security agenda is an easy target for his political opponents. But now threats from the American right are generating a sense of wounded national pride. Pressure on the president inside the country for bilateral cooperation has been undermined by what feels like gringo bullying—not to mention the lack of accountability for drug demand.
(Claire—I was relieved to see this in the Wall Street Journal yesterday. I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one who was sitting bolt upright and screaming—and if so, why.)
Declaring Mexican cartels as terrorist groups would be a mistake. If you wondered what CG favorite Peter Zeihan had to say about this, here’s a transcript of his latest:
I’m not saying I’ve got a solution to this problem, because I do not. Well, actually, I do. We’ll get to that. But military strikes on Mexico are not, not the solution. It’s not that the cartels are not deserving. I mean, these are people who basically been preying on civilians now for decades, shoving drugs into our system. … However, we have seen exactly this sort of situation in recent American history. We know exactly where it leads. So, during the Afghan war, we discovered that there were militants operating in northwest Pakistan in a place called Northwest Frontier Province, that were launching assaults against American forces and Afghan forces backed by the United States North of the border in Afghanistan, and then they would retreat back south of the border. And so we ended up carrying out a number of military operations on both sides of the border to chase them down.
The problem we rapidly discovered is that Pakistan is a weak state, and they do not control Northwest Frontier Province. And by launching and strike south of the border, we were inflaming local passions of Pakistanis, even if they were not in support of these militant groups. And we ended up weakening the Pakistani state, which made it even easier for these groups to operate. So in this case, strikes across the border just poured fuel on the fire.
If we were to do this in Mexico, two problems. Number one, Mexico is a weaker state than Pakistan. And so anything that inhibits its ability to function would probably make the situation even worse. And second, the most pro-American portions of Mexico are the northern tier of states, where we’d be likely to launch these strikes. So we’d be taking on our regional allies who are not just political allies, but economic partners. Remember that the United States and Mexico are now each other’s largest trading partners. And especially if we decide we want to move away from the Chinese system, we need help with mid-skilled, mid-range manufacturing, and that is a sector in which Mexico absolutely excels; it’s arguably the world leader.
And launching military assaults on what is the location of our most important, most tightly integrated supply chain networks, would be a disaster for aerospace and automotive and manufacturing in general. So I really would encourage you to think otherwise. This is a thorny problem. The solution is not to not get tummy tucks in Mexico, although I would argue that maybe common sense would tell you that you don’t need to do that, anyway. The solution is to stop using so much goddamn cocaine, because as long as we are providing the financial existence of the system, it’s going to persist. [My emphasis.]
Claire: 100 percent correct.
“Blame Mexico” won’t solve the crises of guns and fentanyl:
… can you imagine if the US were to send troops into Mexico? They would face a vast arsenal of weapons made in America. That’s not Mexico’s fault … it is estimated that over 200,000 guns are trafficked into Mexico from the US each year. The US gun industry has been arming Mexican drug cartels for as long as there have been Mexican drug cartels. Up to 90 percent of guns used in crimes in Mexico and traced turn out to have originated in the US, mostly Arizona and Texas. The US is the major customer keeping Mexican cartels in business. We’re the major supplier of the guns that make them so deadly. This is the relationship we have created with Mexico.
AMLO’s threat to campaign against Republicans is “unacceptable,” says chairman of the House:
… Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned that if Mexico does not get tougher on the cartels, then Mexico is an “enemy of the United States.” That prompted Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to warn that Mexico might start an “information campaign” to persuade Mexican Americans to leave the Republican Party. Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., who led a delegation of committee members to Mexico this week, rejected Obrador’s comments as “unacceptable.”
“Recent comments about American elections are completely unacceptable and undermine our shared goals of promoting safety and encouraging peaceful trade between our nations,” said Smith, R-Mo., in a late Monday statement.
Claire—do they realize how they sound?
Mexico’s Defense Department said that soldiers found over 1.83 million fentanyl pills at a stash house in the border city of Tijuana:
The raid produced one of the largest seizures of fentanyl in Mexico in recent months and came only one day before President Andrés Manuel López Obrador claimed that fentanyl isn't made in Mexico. He made that assertion in comments arguing that fentanyl is the United States' problem, not Mexico's.
Honduras is seeking official relations with China, throwing Taiwan overboard:
Should Honduras switch sides to China, Taiwan would be recognized by just 13 governments. It will also widen Beijing’s foothold in a region that has historically sided with its rival Washington. … Taiwan has lost eight diplomatic allies since 2016, when Tsai Ing-wen was elected as president. …
Weeks before her announcement, [President Xiomara Castro]’s government said it was negotiating with China to build a hydroelectric dam. Beijing had lent Honduras US$300 million for a similar project in 2021.
★ Photo essay: The Cuban Collapse. Far from the romanticized notion of Old Havana, this project documents the city’s housing situation as a microcosm of the country’s collapse. Many buildings have collapsed or been declared uninhabitable, forcing people to live in shelters or squat in unsafe conditions while new hotels are built around them.
★ Argentina’s inflation passes 100 percent for the first time since the end of hyperinflation in the early 90s.
The sky-high inflation was influenced by a number of factors, including continuing devaluation of the Argentine Peso, economic fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine, and global supply chain restrictions. One factor, however, has remained constant for years: Argentina’s government spends way more than it collects. As a consequence, the government must take on more debt or print more money to finance itself, leading to a progressive devaluation of the peso, which has steadily declined against the dollar for over a decade, accelerating its decline in the past few years.
President Alberto Fernández is calling for the impeachment of members of Argentina’s Supreme Court, including its president. He’s accusing the country’s highest justice of “bad performance of his functions.”
The request came following a leaked Telegram chat involving a close adviser to Supreme Court President Horacio Rosatti and Mauricio D’Alessandro, Minister of Security and Justice of the city of Buenos Aires. The adviser was allegedly lobbying to pull some strings to secure a spot on the Council of Magistrates—the body tasked with appointing federal judges—for opposition party members as well as allegedly providing legal advice for the Buenos Aires government related to an upcoming case against the federal government that will be heard by the Supreme Court.
2023 elections in Argentina: What to expect from the candidates. The elections aren’t until October and the candidates haven’t been chosen yet, but this is a handy guide to who’s who in Argentina.
2022 an “unprecedented” year for aggression against journalists in Peru:
Last year there were 303 attacks on journalists and the media during [President Pedro] Castillo’s administration and the first 24 days of President Dina Boluarte’s term. It is the highest number recorded so far this century in Peru, followed by the years 2020 (with 239 attacks), 2007 (with 212) and 2021 (with 206), in the last two decades. …
During his presidential campaign and later as president, Castillo delivered dozens of messages that took aim at the press … even his ministers “in several press conferences, gave a stigmatizing speech that was later imitated in the streets by their supporters, which led to attacks on the reporters.” The [National Association of Journalists’ report said there is] general “anger and boredom” in the population against the news media “in the face of what they consider to be an informative farce.” In 2022, civilians were the principal aggressors against journalists, with 156 total aggressions.
★ Haiti’s rule of lawlessness: Why a military intervention would only entrench its problems:
Haiti does not need foreign troops to solve its problems, but it does need the United States and its partners to stop propping up a corrupt government aligned with criminal gangs. The sanctions imposed on the country’s former leaders are a welcome development, but they put far too little pressure on the political system to make any difference. To help Haiti move away from being a criminally controlled failed state to a functional and stable democracy, foreign governments, especially the United States and Canada, should listen to Haitians and do everything in their power to pressure Henry to step aside or go to the negotiating table. …
Although many desperate, terrorized Haitians support this request, a military intervention would be yet another catastrophic mistake. The last UN-led military mission to Haiti left a legacy of trauma and disease.7 By taking the place of Haiti’s police and military, plus its government agencies and civil society—without sufficiently reinforcing or supporting reforms in any of them—UN forces weakened Haitian institutions and exacerbated problems in governance that led to the current crisis. Haiti’s political leaders and government have remained dependent on foreign governments and international institutions to an extent unseen in most of the world. And those foreign governments and international institutions, as they impose decisions that allow Haiti’s criminal regime to prosper, rarely acknowledge publicly the extraordinary power they hold to make or break Haiti’s political system.
Global
Markets tumble as bank fears go global. Shares fell sharply, with banking stocks taking a beating, as Tuesday’s rally quickly faded.
Plan to make mRNA vaccines in developing countries needs US funding:
… three years into the pandemic, the UN-backed program to build a network of self-reliant research and manufacturing sites is struggling. It is seeking a large increase in funds to ensure its sustainability, its backers say, raising concerns about the long-term future of the program. The United States has yet to respond to a funding request for US$100 million, sent late last year by the effort’s backers. The support would about double its funding overall. …
Plans for a binding international accord on pandemic preparedness, under discussion at the World Health Assembly, are facing conspiracy-theory-tinged backlash from the far right.8
Nord Stream’s tap on the shoulder:
… 1937’s bombing of Guernica gave a preview of what would befall Europe’s cities just a few years later. The Russo-Ukrainian War is giving hints of what has changed over the last few decades that should give everyone pause to review their assumptions and critical vulnerabilities. …
While it is easier to understand, even in the face of “sea blindness,” the importance of the trade that arrives by ship, food and fuel at the top of the list, from the man on the street to policy makers in nations’ capitals, the importance of what lies on the sea bed is lost to most. …. “It is a well-known fact that some 90 percent of global trade is carried by sea, yet it is a less well-known fact that some 99 percent of the world’s communications are delivered by 1.4 million kilometers of submarine cables. Of no less significance, a substantial part of gas and electricity resources is delivered through a series of undersea connectors.”
★ Global regulators grapple with fallout of Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
The implosion of Silicon Valley Bank, which became the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history on Friday, sent shock waves through the country’s financial system. Now, its ripple effects are being felt across the world. …
How (not) to engage with authoritarian states:
The world is in a prolonged democratic recession. Every year for almost two decades, more countries have moved towards authoritarianism than towards democracy. Yet despite this—and despite loud calls for western governments to pay greater attention to the strategies and methods they use to strengthen democracy—a recent review of ODA flows concluded that “the regime type does not appear to weigh heavily on ODA allocation decisions.”
More alarming still, engaging with authoritarian states without a clear plan for how to avoid doing harm may entrench authoritarian rule. It can, for example, legitimize or inadvertently support parts and/or practices of repressive regimes. …the democratic initiatives supported by Western states are often outweighed by the sum total of all of the other ways that they routinely engage with authoritarian partners—what we call “everyday engagement.” This complex web of agreements, negotiations and contacts includes diplomatic relations, trade deals, environmental treaties, joint security programs, and much more.
The Daily Bat
“Aha! Take that, Amerikanskis. Enjoy.”
The Daily Thought Rectification
And now for a word from arch-supervillain Hu Xijin:
Today’s Animal
Stuart the Stoat, ladies and gentlemen. Stuart the Stoat. Don’t skimp on this: You need a baby stoat after reading Global Eyes.
And there you go! You did it! You now know everything worth knowing about the world. Wasn’t that great, new readers? Of course it was. Didn’t you learn a lot? Of course you did.
So don’t just hang around being “qualified traffic.” Join the Cosmopolitan Globalist today—and be one of us.
That is the term of art. And you, my dear new readers, are called “qualified traffic.”
DeSantis has demonstrated that he’ll give the craziest wing of the base whatever it wants, even if he knows full well that it’s stupid and wrong. (He banned private companies from implementing vaccine mandates. DeSantis is an intelligent fellow and knew perfectly well that pandering to the anti-vax crowd this way would get them killed.) If the base wants him to abandon Ukraine, he’ll do it in an instant.
Note: It would be absurd to dismiss the author of this appeal as some hyperventilating left-wing ninny. In 2004, I reviewed his book, Still Life with Bombers: Israel in the Age of Terrorism, for the Hoover Institute. That’s still a good introduction to David Horowitz and his political orientation.)
There’s an editing problem in that story; I don’t know whether he’s at risk of execution or if he’s already been executed.
Did you know that I’ve written a short book about India’s entrepreneurialism?
About suffering they were never wrong, The Old Masters: how well they understood Its human position; how it takes place While someone else is eating or opening a window or just walking dully along
You might be interested in the novel my brother wrote about Peacekeeping in Haiti. It’s sensational. My brother’s a terrific writer. His wife is a UN peacekeeper. They were part of the mission to which the author refers.
See our March 23, 2021 article: A blueprint for vaccinating the world. “For scientific and strategic reasons,” we wrote, “vaccinating the world must be the new Biden Administration’s key foreign policy priority. It is the only way to restore shattered global confidence in the United States’ leadership and competence.” Obviously, our advice was ignored.
Never seen a Russian t-shirt, but I have seen plenty of Ukrainian flags flying on porches that would never fly an American flag. I think the latter is more a cultural talisman of the left than pro-Russian t-shirts are of the right.
If only the end of a mono-polar world meant the Chinese would hand out olive branches to belligerents and soothe disputes...