GLOBAL EYES: AFRICA
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Summary A:
East Africa: Khartoum is being destroyed in a fight to the death between two venal and brutal generals. The exodus of refugees could cause fragile neighboring states to collapse. Everyone fears this conflict will spread and set the wider region alight, but no one can figure out how to stop it. Recriminations have already begun in the US, where many Africa hands are blaming the State Department which in turn is blaming everyone else. The catastrophe is shaping up to be one of the Biden Administration’s biggest foreign policy failures. Russia—which denies it’s in Sudan at all—is striving to exploit the chaos and expand its already-considerable presence in Africa; it’s also using Sudanese gold to stabilize its economy. Meanwhile, the World Food Program has halted desperately needed food aid for Tigrayan war victims because it believes the shipments are being stolen, and Xi Jinping, amazingly, has proposed that Eritrea is the key to bolstering peace in the Horn of Africa. Finally, in a particularly appalling item, Tigrayan refugees in Sudan are being kidnapped, trafficked across the Sahara, and tortured for ransom.
West Africa: Terrorism in Burundi, and riots in Senegal as the opposition leader’s rape trial is delayed. Mali denies a UN report that it massacred 500 civilians with Wagner’s assistance.
South Africa: The US caught South Africa sending a ship laden with weapons to Russia and a major diplomatic dustup has ensued.
Central Africa: Clashes between the Congolese army and M23 rebels continue despite a ceasefire, and a separate conflict in the western regions of DR Congo is spreading.
North Africa: Tunisian opposition leader has been sentenced in absentia. Egypt and Tunisia are on the verge of debt crises. Mauritania went to the polls.
Continental: The IMF thinks the implementation of an African free trade zone will lift fifty million people out of extreme poverty.
Summary B: There are multiple complex and significant stories emerging from Africa:
South Africa and the Russia-Ukraine conflict: There are tensions between South Africa and the US over alleged arms shipments from South Africa to Russia, potentially breaching South Africa’s declared neutrality in the Ukraine conflict. The situation has stirred controversy and concern, affecting South Africa’s currency and bond markets. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has not confirmed or denied the alleged arms shipments, is leading a peace mission involving other African leaders to try to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Ceasefire efforts between the Congolese army and the M23 rebel group in North Kivu are failing, leading to renewed fighting. The DRC has accused Rwanda of backing the rebels, a charge Rwanda denies. Additionally, militia clashes in western DRC have resulted in fatalities, prompting the declaration of a curfew. The conflict is now spreading closer to the country’s capital, Kinshasa.
Crisis in Tunisia and Egypt: Both Tunisia and Egypt are facing major potential debt crises, with Tunisia also dealing with political instability following President Kais Saied’s consolidation of power. Opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi has been sentenced in absentia to a year in prison on charges of incitement.
Mauritania’s elections: Mauritanians have voted in the first legislative and local elections since 2019, in what is seen as a crucial test for President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani ahead of next year’s presidential vote.
Negotiations for grain export from Ukraine and Russia: Delegations from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the UN are in Istanbul to discuss an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The aim is to allow grain and fertilizer to move from Russia and Ukraine, currently engaged in conflict, to Africa and other parts of the world.
African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): The AfCFTA, created in 2018, is projected to lift fifty million people out of extreme poverty. The free trade area, the largest in the world by population, provides its members with opportunities for growth and improved living standards through expanding trade.
🚨Just in: US Embassy staff gunned down in Anambra.
Staff of the United States Embassy in Nigeria have been shot dead in Ogbaru Local Government Area of Anambra State. Sources told Daily Trust that the convoy of the embassy officials came under fire as they were passing through the area. A source said they were on humanitarian mission to the area while another source said the attacked officials wanted to connect their destination through Ogbaru. “At least four persons were killed in the attack while others sustained injuries. Troops have taken over the community,” a security source told Daily Trust. Details of the attack were not available as of the time of filing this report, but DSP Tochukwu Ikenga, Police Public Relations Officer in Anambra, confirmed the incident.
EAST AFRICA
One month since Sudan’s conflict erupted, its capital is a desolate war zone:
Shaken families have been huddling at home, with civilian houses becoming the collateral damage in the gun battles raging on the streets between the forces of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the head of RSF, Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. Residents of Khartoum have endured weeks of desperate food shortages, power blackouts, communications outages and runaway inflation. Before the fighting erupted on April 15, the city of five million was considered a place of relative stability, but now shelling and air attacks are witnessed frequently.
Charred aircraft lie on the airport tarmac, foreign embassies are shuttered and hospitals, banks, shops and wheat silos have been ransacked by looters. Violence also renewed in El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur state, leaving hundreds killed and the health system in “total collapse”, medics said. Fighting continued on Monday, with loud explosions heard across Khartoum and thick smoke in the sky while warplanes drew anti-aircraft fire, according to witnesses. “The situation is becoming worse by the day,” said a 37-year-old resident of southern Khartoum who did not wish to be named because of safety concerns. “People are getting more and more scared because the two sides … are becoming more and more violent.”
While the generals fight, what remains of the government has retreated to Port Sudan about 850 kilometers away, the hub for mass evacuations of both Sudanese and foreign citizens. The battles have killed more than 750 people, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Thousands more have been wounded and nearly a million displaced, with long refugee convoys headed to Egypt, Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan. Multiple truce deals have been agreed and quickly violated, and hopes are dim for an end to the fighting which has piled more suffering on the 45 million people of one of the world’s poorest countries.
The Sudanese army carried out air strikes in the north of Khartoum yesterday, attacking its paramilitary rivals and damaging a hospital as the conflict enters its second month:
Intense battles in Khartoum and its sister cities of Bahri and Omdurman have raged despite Saudi and US-brokered talks between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Jeddah aimed at securing humanitarian access and a ceasefire. The fighting has spread to the western region of Darfur, but has been concentrated in the capital, where RSF fighters have taken up positions across neighborhoods and the army has used air strikes and heavy artillery fire to target them.
Neighboring countries too poorly funded to absorb Sudanese humanitarian crisis:
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees says underwhelming support from the global private sector and already stretched budgets in neighboring countries’ humanitarian needs make it difficult for those fleeing war-torn Sudan to receive support after the exodus. … “Support from the private sector has been slow compared to other emergencies, despite the urgency and severity of the crisis for refugees and internally displaced people,” she said. ... The fighting in Sudan began as countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, where most are fleeing to, were already faced with budgetary constraints for their humanitarian needs.
Claire—what a catalogue of utter misery.
★ The curse of Sudan’s gold. Why one of the world’s poorest countries fails to profit from vast reserves:
The extraction industry is growing and fueling the conflict between the country’s rival generals, as well as aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. But much of it is being smuggled out, depriving the state of much-needed revenue … The rise of gold mining in Sudan, which has become Africa’s third largest producer of the precious mineral over the last decade, has gone hand in hand with the growth of poverty in a country that ranks 172nd in the United Nations Human Development Index (out of a total of 191 nations). While Sudanese authorities announced in January that a record production had been achieved in 2022, the World Bank’s economic indicators pointed to a very different mark for this country located in the Horn of Africa: the percentage of the population below the poverty threshold had risen steadily from 15.3 percent in 2014 to 32.9 percent in 2022. That is to say, right now around 15 million people are living on less than US$2.15 a day. …
Gold is financing part of the conflict. “It provides Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo with a deep, government-independent war chest to finance his conflict, even though the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by al-Burhan, also control many companies and economic sectors in the country.” … “Wagner, under Yevgeny Prigozhin, has become very active in the Sudanese gold sector, including in close collaboration with Hemedti … This would explain the record levels of extraction; gold extracted from Sudan is believed to have helped stabilize the Russian economy since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent international sanctions [against Moscow].”
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin denies Wagner is in Sudan:
“Wagner is not in Sudan,” Prigozhin … said in an audio clip posted on Telegram. “Wagner never got involved in the domestic political affairs in Sudan after the departure of Omar al-Bashir.” Prigozhin denied a claim by army general Yassir al-Atta to the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that Wagner was in Sudan, at the Jebel Amer gold mine in Darfur. Atta also said a Wagner sniper had been killed. “The whole world knows where they are located,” Atta told the newspaper. He also said General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, who leads the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that are battling the army, had 53 tonnes of gold in Russia.
The longer the conflict lasts, the higher the risk of a regional war:
Geographically, Sudan borders seven countries: Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Libya. Politically and culturally, it straddles the Middle East, North Africa and the Horn of Africa. Regional powers and neighbors have lined up behind either of the two generals —or in some cases both. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been backing al-Burhan. For their part, the United Arab Emirates and General Khalifa Haftar of Libya have supported the Rapid Support Forces. But many other actors remain undecided. There is a real possibility that regional and international actors will be arming different sides as they pursue their own, often competing interests. This could bring unprecedented shifts in the region’s already uneasy regional equilibrium, and test pre-existing alliances.
Why is Darfur central to the conflict?
Analysts trace many of the roots of the latest conflict in Sudan back to appalling violence and human rights abuses—possibly genocide—in Darfur about twenty years ago. One of the principal factions now battling for supremacy in Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces, has its origins in the Janjaweed, a feared Arab counterinsurgency force created under the former regime of dictator Omar al-Bashir. The region remains extremely violent, with much fighting between Arab and non-Arab tribes over the past year.
★ The revolution no one wanted: Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, is being destroyed in a fight to the death between two venal, brutal generals. This is a war of choice; allowing it to happen was a failure of international diplomacy. But if we look at the city’s 200-year history, the fighting shouldn’t be a surprise.
★ The geopolitics of US engagement in Sudan:
A civil war risks not just disrupting the regional economy but also turning Sudan back into a haven for terrorists. From there, terrorists could undermine efforts currently underway to stabilize the Sahel region. And they could threaten more distant areas: It’s worth remembering that Osama bin Laden, before being expelled in 1996, spent five years in Sudan developing the terrorist organization with global reach that perpetrated the 9/11 attacks.
As in Libya, Russian President Vladimir Putin also stands ready to exploit the conflict. To be sure, the Ukraine war has exposed shocking weaknesses in Russia’s military, but Putin’s interventions in Libya, Syria, and elsewhere have taught him that when it comes to weak and failing states, even small military deployments can generate outsized geopolitical rewards—especially when the United States and its allies work at cross purposes. He also has the advantage of being currently popular in many African states because of the activities of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor that has filled much of the vacuum left by the retreating French across the continent. … The Kremlin understands that a strong Russian presence in Sudan would give him even more influence over Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, which are already, each in its own way, hedging away from Washington and toward Moscow and Beijing. … Indeed, reviving vanished ties between the Soviet Union and both the Middle East and Africa has always been part of Putin’s strategic plan, and Sudan offers a gateway to both regions. … Meanwhile, the Wagner Group’s growing influence in Darfur is helping Moscow to establish a corridor through Sudan to Russia’s established positions in Libya and the Central African Republic.
★ How the US fumbled Sudan’s hopes for democracy:
The collapse of Sudan’s democratic transition has led to anger and backlash in Washington among diplomats and aid officials, some of whom feel that the Biden administration’s policies empowered the two generals at the center of the crisis, exacerbated tensions between them as they pushed for a political deal, and shunted aside pro-democracy activists in the process. “Maybe we couldn’t have prevented a conflict,” said one US official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “But it’s like we didn’t even try and beyond that just emboldened Hemeti and Burhan by making repeated empty threats and never following through. And all the while, we let the real pro-democracy players just be cast to the side.” … “[The] US built a dream palace of a political process that has now crashed down on the people of Sudan.”
Claire—this is so painful to read. Every word has the ring of truth.
★ “I saw many bodies.” Living in UN camps in a rapidly collapsing Sudan, refugees from Ethiopia are being kidnapped, taken across the Sahara, and tortured for ransom—in a brutal, multimillion-dollar industry.
Activists and other Tigrayans caught up in the trade [say] that traffickers are preying on people in Tunaydbah and Um Rakuba, two settlements that are among a series of camps run by the UN and the Sudanese government in south-eastern Sudan. Together the camps house 70,000 people who fled Tigray.
The refugees are the latest victims of the Sahara’s vast and brutal people-trafficking industry, believed to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year, stretching across Africa and trapping those fleeing wars, political persecution and economic hardship. Those who cannot pay the ransoms demanded by the gangs have no prospect of release. … A humanitarian worker says the safety of the Tigrayan refugees has been raised with the UN, but that no measures had been taken to help. “They didn’t really want to hear about it, to be honest. It felt like they were turning a blind eye to some clear refugee protection issues.”
Kenyan president says authorities should have prevented cult deaths:
Kenyan government agencies should have been able to prevent the deaths by starvation of more than 200 members of a cult in the country’s coastal region, said President William Ruto, adding he took responsibility for the disaster. Authorities accuse Paul Mackenzie, leader of the Good News International Church, of ordering his followers to starve themselves and their children to death so they could go to heaven before the end of the world. The death toll so far stands at 201, making it one of the worst cult-related disasters in recent history. ... Given the presence of government agencies in the area, including police, intelligence services, and the local administration, Mackenzie’s activities should not have gone unnoticed, Ruto said.
Ethiopia’s plan to go cashless runs into money problems:
A new government-mandated cashless payment system snarled traffic as drivers found themselves spending hours grappling with account activation, forgotten passwords, and system failures. And while drivers say the system has improved since then, it’s still far from seamless. … Ethiopia, like many African countries, is trying to shift the economy from a cash-based system to a digital one. The goal is to boost financial inclusion among its citizens, increase its tax base over time because digital transactions are easier to track, and boost economic growth overall in the continent’s second largest country by population.
World Food Program pauses food distribution in Ethiopia following “significant diversion” of aid:
The UN World Food Program in Ethiopia has said it’s “deeply concerned” over reports that significant amounts of food aid has been diverted away from those in desperate need in the post-conflict. … The agency has already launched a comprehensive investigation, and “taken swift action to establish all the facts and further strengthen our controls.” As a result, WFP has temporarily paused all food distributions in Tigray, saying that they will not resume until they can ensure aid will get to its intended recipients.
Justice Ministry grilled over crimes in northern Ethiopia:
Officials of the Ethiopian Ministry of Justice are scrutinized by the United Nations for failing to investigate allegations of human rights violations related to the war in northern Ethiopia and for failing to uphold human rights principles during detention, interrogation, and incarceration. The Ministry’s delegates are in Geneva to update the UN Committee Against Torture on Ethiopia’s human rights situation. The UNCAT was created to hold states accountable for human rights violations by systematically investigating reports of torture.1
Xi Jinping said that strong China-Eritrea relations were key to bolstering peace in the Horn of Africa and pursuing mutually beneficial development:
Eritrea has strategic importance for China given its location on the Red Sea, one of the world’s key shipping corridors with access to both to the Suez Canal and Europe to the north and the Indian Ocean to the southeast. …
Xi, speaking to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People after a guard of honor ceremony in Tiananmen Square, said China and Eritrea “share a deep bond of friendship (in) an uncertain and unstable world. A strong China-Eritrea relationship is not only in line with the common and long-term interests of both countries, but also for maintaining regional peace.”
Claire—opinions about Eritrea’s commitment to keeping the peace vary, particularly among the Tigrayans they’ve been raping.
Floods caused by the annual rains have left “a trail of destruction” across Somalia, inundating homes and farmland and shutting down health facilities.
Museveni’s bigotry will cost lives. A toxic wave of homophobia is surging across east Africa. It is crashing down in Uganda, where members of parliament recently passed a bill that makes being gay a crime punishable by death and not reporting homosexuality a criminal offense.
WEST AFRICA
Ghana expects the IMF to approve a first loan tranche of US$600 million by Wednesday. Ghana seeks US$3 billion from the fund to shore up its economy, which owing to Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is suffering its worst crisis in a generation.
Ghana’s largest opposition party chose the country’s ex-president, John Dramani Mahama, as its candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
Burkina Faso terrorist attack kills 33:
At least 33 people were killed when gunmen opened fire on vegetable farmers in a jihadist-hit region of Burkina Faso, the governor said Saturday, as the country struggles to stem an insurgency. A state of emergency has been in force in eight of Burkina Faso’s 13 regions since March, including in western Boucle du Mouhoun. The attack on the farmers happened on Thursday evening around 17:00, Governor Babo Pierre Bassinga said … “The village of Youlou in the department of Cheriba, Mouhoun province suffered a cowardly and barbaric terrorist attack. The gunmen targeted peaceful civilians” who were farming along the river, he said.
Claire—if a barbaric terrorist attack had killed 33 villagers in France, it would be on the front page of newspapers around the world.
UK court rules in favor of Shell in Nigerian oil spill case. The case is one of a series of legal battles Shell has been fighting in London courts, mounted by residents of Nigeria’s oil-producing Niger Delta:
The United Kingdom’s Supreme Court has ruled that it was too late for a group of Nigerian claimants to sue two Shell subsidiaries over a 2011 offshore oil spill. On December 20, 2011, an estimated 40,000 barrels of crude oil leaked when a tanker was loaded at Shell’s Bonga oilfield, 120 kilometers off the coast of Nigeria’s Niger Delta. Shell disputed the allegations and said the Bonga spill was dispersed offshore and did not impact the shoreline. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court upheld rulings by two lower courts that found the plaintiffs had brought their case after the six-year legal expiry date.
The US has imposed entry restrictions on more Nigerians for undermining the democratic process during Nigeria’s 2023 election cycle. “These individuals have been involved in intimidation of voters through threats and physical violence, the manipulation of vote results, and other activity that undermines Nigeria’s democratic process,” said the Secretary of State in a statement, offering no further details.
Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko has appealed a libel conviction:
Last week, Sonko received a suspended six-month sentence for libel stemming from his accusations that the minister of tourism had embezzled funds. The conviction casts doubt over Sonko’s eligibility to run for president in an election where President Macky Sall is widely expected to seek a third term.
The trial of Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko for alleged rape has been immediately adjourned for a week, after opening in his absence at a court in the capital, Dakar. Sonko, who is also the mayor of the southern city of Ziguinchor, was charged based on a woman’s accusations that he assaulted her when she worked at a massage salon. The 48-year-old has denied the charges and has accused President Macky Sall of trying to prevent him from running in elections next year.
The United States urged Mali’s transition government to pursue an “independent, impartial, efficient, exhaustive, and transparent investigation” to hold accountable those responsible for the execution of hundreds of people in one village:
“The United States is appalled by the disregard for human life exhibited by elements of the Malian Armed Forces in cooperation with the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group—a transnational criminal organization—during the operation in Moura,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said. Malian soldiers and unidentified “armed white men” likely executed at least 500 people and sexually assaulted or tortured dozens of others during a five-day operation in the village of Moura in central Mali last year. …
Russia’s UN envoy, Maria Molodtsova, told a UN human rights meeting in Geneva earlier this month that those killed in Moura were militants and that the military operation “contributed to peace and tranquillity.”
SOUTHERN AFRICAc
Arms were loaded onto Russian ship in South Africa:
The United States envoy to South Africa expressed his confidence on Thursday of a Russian ship having picked up weapons in South Africa, making for a possible breach of Pretoria’s declared neutrality in the Ukraine conflict. The rand, South Africa’s currency, and 2030 government bonds were affected following the US statement, as currency traders said they were worried that South Africa could now face Western sanctions. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa did not confirm or deny the shipment took place but said his government was looking into the matter when an opposition leader asked him about the issue in parliament. … The US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety [said this] “does not suggest to us the actions of a non-aligned country.”
The scandal of South Africa’s alleged arms to Russia. Pretoria’s choices undercut its supposedly neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict:
There are three possible explanations for the diplomatic storm that has broken out between South Africa and the US after Washington’s ambassador alleged that armaments had been loaded on to a ship docked in South Africa and bound for Russia. … The third explanation is that US intelligence is wrong. Given the number of satellites the US may have pointed at the Lady R, this seems unlikely. …
South Africa’s army chief visits Moscow for bilateral talks:
Earlier on Monday, President Ramaphosa said the country’s non-aligned position did not favor Russia over other states and reiterated the call for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. … Last week, the United States alleged that weapons were loaded onto Russian ship Lady R from a naval base in Cape Town late last year, which sparked a diplomatic row. South African officials swiftly rejected claims made by the U.S. ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety, who also said senior U.S. officials had “profound concerns” over South Africa’s professed policy of non-alignment and neutrality over Russia’s war in Ukraine. …
Brigety was summoned on Friday to meet South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor and he apologized “unreservedly” to the government and the people of South Africa, a foreign ministry statement said. “I was grateful for the opportunity to speak with Foreign Minister Pandor ... and correct any misimpressions left by my public remarks,” Brigety said in a tweet that did not confirm whether he had apologized. South Africa, which has abstained from voting on UN resolutions on Russia's war in Ukraine, says it is impartial. Western countries, however, consider it one of Moscow’s closest allies on the continent.
Claire—If Brigety believes the accusation to be true, and I’m sure he does, he should not apologize—not obliquely on Twitter, nor “unreservedly” in a meeting with the foreign minister. He was perfectly polite when he made the claim, and if it’s true—I’m sure it is—he has nothing for which to apologize. If he didn’t apologize when when he met the foreign minister, he should firmly correct the claim that he did South Africans now believe the charge is untrue and the US ambassador a worm. How does this help them to decide whether they approve of the policy their government is conducting? Here are some of the replies to his tweet, which suggest why it’s important to correct the record:
Here’s Julius Malema, leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters party, who is not a figure of excellent repute, but this nonetheless also suggests why the US ambassador needs to stand his ground:
Opposition MP Kobus Marais called on the defense minister to explain the purpose of his trip to Russia:
“This unsolicited visit is also just the latest incident in a string where the South African government clearly and unashamedly demonstrates its support for Russia,” said Marais. “Even after the collapse of the Rand and the call from the United States to honor relationships they still went ahead and conducted this visit. It is shameful.”
Washington is perturbed by the uproar:
South Africa is unusually high on the agendas of American legislators this week, it seems, in part because Reuben Brigety has many friends in Washington. The US ambassador to South Africa suffered “maltreatment” for speaking out, said the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Jim Risch, on Friday. It is not clear how widespread that interpretation is, but one analyst said Brigety—a former naval officer and academic as well as a diplomatic old hand—is liked and respected on both sides of America’s political divide. Brigety being scolded by South Africa has drawn attention to what Risch described as “anti-American screeds,” which in turn is driving questions on whether that should disqualify South Africa for tariff breaks under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. One eligibility clause in the AGOA legislation requires that a participating country “does not engage in activities that undermine United States national security or foreign policy interests.”
Claire—if countries are to be disqualified from tariff breaks because citizens are prone to “anti-American screeds,” we’ll trade with no one, I’m afraid.
What’s really at stake in the US-South-Africa Russia squabble:
Confusion over whether South Africa sold military gear or weapons to Russia continues. The longer doubts continue, the more likely South Africa will be forced to pay economic costs for this—costs that may be deeply painful. Even before conclusive answers are forthcoming to charges that South Africa has supplied Russia with weapons (let alone before the mooted judicial inquiry issues its findings), now is the time to explore the possibility of real economic damage to the US-South Africa relationship.
Ramaphosa and other African leaders join hands to end Russia-Ukraine war. President Cyril Ramaphosa and six other African heads of state are going on a peace mission in a bid to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Top Lesotho journalist gunned down outside radio station. Joki was shot 13 times after he left work at privately owned radio station Ts’enolo FM.
Mozambique faces worst cholera outbreak in more than 20 years. The number of cases increased after the country was hit by Cyclone Freddy in late February.
Welcome to Zimbabwe’s new digital currency. On Monday, Zimbabwe released a gold-backed digital currency for peer-to-peer and peer-to-business transactions as well as to act as a store of value as the country’s currency continues to lose ground against major currencies.
Eswatini civil society groups want African rights body to put pressure on King Mswato. The demands were presented by Tanele Maseko, the wife of slain human rights activist Thulani Maseko, who was gunned down in front of his family on 21 January this year.
CENTRAL AFRICA
Congo army, M23 rebels trade blame as ceasefire fails to hold:
The M23 first accused the Congolese army of resuming fighting in North Kivu, where a regional military force deployed by the East African Community has been guarding the peace, including in territories abandoned by the rebel group. The M23 also rejected accusations it had attacked villages in the area. …
The DRC has repeatedly accused its neighbor Rwanda, an EAC member, of backing the rebels, a charge Kigali denies. Since the beginning of March this year, the M23 and the Congolese army have been observing a ceasefire, with the rebels withdrawing from several localities. Some of these localities have been occupied by the East African regional force. According to the M23, the Congolese army is occupying the villages it left vacant.
Claire—here’s our primer on this conflict.
11 killed in west DR Congo militia clashes, curfew declared:
At least 11 people have been killed in militia clashes in western Democratic Republic of Congo, officials said Saturday, as a province in the restive region declared a curfew to respond to the violence. “Mobondo” militants attacked the village of Batshongo, in Kwango province, late on Friday, said provincial government spokesman Adelar Nkisi, referring to a militia from the Yaka community. Two soldiers, one police officer and two civilians were killed in the attack, Nkisi told AFP, adding that the soldiers had been “practically chopped to pieces.” …
Conflict in western regions of DRC first erupted last year, in the Kwamouth territory of Mai-Ndombe province, in a dispute over customary tithes between the Teke and Yaka communities. The Teke consider themselves indigenous to the region, as opposed to the Yaka and other communities whom they see as newer arrivals … The festering conflict in western DRC has been largely overlooked amid the violence in the country's east, where the M23 rebellion has conquered swathes of territory.
The latent conflict in the west of the Democratic Republic of Congo is worsening, reaching areas not far from the capital, Kinshasa:
At least eleven people died in the two-day fighting, including several beheaded soldiers. … Local sources report villages completely emptied of their inhabitants, while reception centers in Kenge and Pont Kwango are overcrowded.
Three political parties in Congo-Brazzaville launched an “alliance for democratic change in 2026” as President Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been in power for almost forty years, is a potential candidate in the next election.
NORTH AFRICA
A Tunisian judge sentenced in absentia opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi, a critic of President Kais Saied, to a year in prison on charges of incitement:
Ghannouchi, 81, has been in prison since April. His lawyer said the charges stem from a funeral eulogy he gave last year for a member of his Ennahda party when he said the deceased “did not fear a ruler or tyrant, he only feared God.” The leader of the Islamist Ennahda party is also accused of plotting against state security along with other detained opposition figures who accuse Saied of a coup for shutting down the elected parliament and moving to rule by decree.
Saied, who enshrined his new powers in a constitution that he passed through a referendum with low turnout last year, has denied his actions were a coup and said they were needed to save Tunisia from years of chaos. He has called his critics criminals, traitors and terrorists and warned that any judge who freed them would be considered abetting them. Ghannouchi has refused to appear before judges in legal cases, arguing that the charges are fabricated and the trial is political, his lawyer said. Ghannouchi, a political prisoner and exile before the 2011 revolution that brought democracy [sic], was parliament speaker from the 2019 election until Saied sent tanks to shut down the chamber in 2021.
A Tunisian security officer wounded in a terrorist shooting outside a synagogue on the island of Djerba has died, bringing the death toll from the attack to six.
Tunisia and Egypt are on the verge of major debt crises:
The countries are challenged by shortages of essential goods and financial market dysfunction and in Tunisia’s case, a political crisis caused by President Kais Saied’s consolidation of power and crackdown on opponents. … Egypt, as North Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation, has long been assumed to be too big to be allowed to fail, but Tunisia too carries outsized significance as the birthplace, and supposed sole success story, of the Arab Spring.
Mauritanians voted on Saturday in the first legislative and local elections since 2019 when President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani came to power in a litmus test for the veteran leader ahead of next year’s presidential vote.
CONTINENTAL
Turkish, Russian, Ukrainian and UN delegations are in Istanbul negotiating for a two-month extension of the grain export initiative from Ukraine and Russia. Africa is banking on it:
Talks for a new round of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to allow grain and fertilizer to move from wartime Russia and Ukraine to Africa and other parts of the world are under way with the latest agreement expiring in three days. … However, during negotiations for the second round, Russia complained that only 3 percent of the grain went to Africa. If this remained the case, Russia said it would send grain to Africa free of charge, a move widely seen as a geopolitical stunt. … If no deal is agreed on by May 18, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Vershinin told Russian media that Moscow would pull out because its set conditions would not have been considered. US ambassador Jim O’Brien said if Russia was to back down from the deal, that would be an outright selfish decision. …
With the war ongoing the real danger of Africa sourcing food at unaffordable prices remains. As such, the US said it was even prepared to help African buyers to source grain from Russia. … Another big headache for world powers is the opening of the ammonia pipeline to allow Russia to export fertilizer. Without the fertilizer, African countries will be faced with catastrophic crop loss further compromising food sufficiency on the continent. The US believes this is a decision that needs more of Russia’s agreement than Ukraine.
How the West promotes homophobia in Africa:
Last month, the Ugandan parliament passed one of the toughest pieces of anti-gay legislation in Africa. If signed into law by President Yoweri Museveni, the bill would mandate draconian punishments, including the possibility of life in prison for those who identify as gay, and even the death penalty in certain cases. While this assault on human rights might be expected in authoritarian contexts like Uganda, African democracies have also been swept up in the winds of prejudice. In Ghana, for example, “extreme” anti-LGBT legislation has been drafted and proposes criminalization, with up to five years in prison, for identifying as an LGBT person or for being in a gay relationship. In Zambia, activists are being arrested for participating in peaceful protests against gender-based violence—this, on the assumption that such public actions “support homosexuality.” …
[It] is right-wing evangelical leaders who have taken up the baton of exporting prejudice. Through massive amounts of funding, the staging of conservative political conferences abroad, and media disinformation campaigns that promote extremist interpretations of religious texts, these groups have emerged as key drivers of this toxic agenda. … This process is not a new one—it has its foundation in the emergence of more radical forms of charismatic Pentecostal Christianity in the US. Through missionary activity … these changes spread rapidly across Africa.
Africa is fast becoming a significant supplier of green hydrogen:
From Egypt to Angola, Morocco to Djibouti, a growing wave of green hydrogen projects is spreading across the African continent. … According to a recent energy consultancy firm Rystad Energy report, Africa's electrolyzer pipeline capacity has reached 114 gigawatts, spread across 52 projects. Moreover, Eastern, Southern, Western and Central Africa now constitute over 60 percent of Africa’s announced green hydrogen pipeline capacity—even though North African countries are far closer to the largest anticipated early markets in Europe.
Africa’s quest for a new international system:
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, many African countries declined to take a strong stand against Moscow. Seventeen African states refused to vote for a UN resolution condemning Russia, and most countries on the continent have maintained economic and trade ties with Moscow despite Western sanctions. In response, the United States and other Western countries have berated African leaders for failing to defend the “rules based” international order, framing African neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict as a betrayal of liberal principles. …
But the truth is that the rules-based international order has not served Africa’s interests. On the contrary, it has preserved a status quo in which major world powers—be they Western or Eastern—have maintained their positions of dominance over the global South. Through the UN Security Council, in particular, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have exerted outsize influence over African nations and relegated African governments to little more than bystanders in their own affairs. The British-, French-, and US-led bombardment of Libya in 2011, justified by a contested interpretation of a UN Security Council resolution authorizing a no-fly zone, stands out as a case in point. Before NATO intervened, the African Union was pursuing a diplomatic strategy to de-escalate the crisis in Libya. But once the military operation began, the AU effort was rendered moot, and Libya was plunged into a cycle of violence and instability from which it has yet to escape. …
Claire—this is true. Whether the AU would have succeeded in Libya is doubtful. But had Europe and the US refrained from intervening, at least they wouldn’t have had their fingerprints all over the failure.
Africa free trade area could lift fifty million people out of extreme poverty:
The creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, or AfCFTA, in 2018 established the world’s largest free trade area by population (1.3 billion) and with a combined GDP of US$3 trillion as of 2022. The AfCFTA presents its members with an opportunity to take advantage of expanding trade to lift growth and living standards across the entire continent. … AfCFTA implementation will entail large reductions in tariff and nontariff trade barriers among African countries. These reductions could increase the median merchandise trade flow between African countries by 15 percent and median real per capita GDP by 1.25 percent. If the reductions in tariff and nontariff barriers are combined with substantial improvements in the trade environment, the payoff to countries would be significantly higher. The paper finds that comprehensive reforms combined with the AfCFTA implementation could increase the median merchandise trade flow between African countries by 53 percent and with the rest of the world by 15 percent, and as a result raise the real per capita GDP of the median African country by more than 10 percent.
And on that hopeful note …
This article is hard to follow, both because the author’s English is poor and because it’s deliberately opaque. You have to read between the lines. But this was the only report I found about this story, so I decided to include it, not only because it’s important, but to contrast it with the story of the preening and lamentable UN envoy to the Palestinian Territories. I wrote of her remarks that I regretted the squandering of the UN’s prestige; one reader doubted, in turn, that the UN had any prestige left to squander. But it does, however compromised it may be. This story shows why it remains important.
Most of what the UN does receives no coverage in the news. But it has the ability to do things that no other organization has the funds or the legitimacy to do—and that no one else wants to do. For example, it investigates reports of torture in Ethiopia and puts pressure on the Ethiopian justice ministry. It is not perfect; it is not even good. But it’s better than nothing. This is why it’s doubly shameful that Albanese is discrediting it.
The UN badly needs reform. But it needs reform because it’s an important institution, not because it should be abolished. (My brother has written beautifully about this in a different context. I highly recommend “Haiti: The Compromising Reality.” If you don’t subscribe, send me a note and I’ll send you a PDF.)
I like the first summary on a visceral level -- it's more lurid. But the second summary seems more neutral and objective, not lurid and therefore more informational.