One difference that strikes me when comparing the Winter of Discontent to the current situation in Britain is the overall political situation. In the former case it was much easier to name a culprit: the militant labor unions, who were holding the Labour Party and the country hostage to their demands. There was a sharp, bitter ideological edge to the WoD that seems not to be present today.
Of course, it would be possible to cast the climate-change Greens in the role once played by the unions. While green policies are not solely to blame for the current crisis, they have played a role, e.g. by making the UK over-reliant on "renewable" energy. Thus when the usually blustery North Sea quieted down, wind-generated energy suddenly became unavailable. In the US, this would have provided the GOP with a great talking point. But in Britain, both major parties tug their forelock to Green orthodoxy.
I’ve read that Britain lost its captive markets in the Empire after WWII, and after the post-war reconstruction boom faded the effects of that loss started becoming apparent. One of the responses to loss is an attraction to extreme ‘one pure answer’ ideologies. If that was the Left in the seventies and the Right today, is it reasonable to say that Britain is still working through that change in circumstance? In the build up to Brexit there was all this stuff written about free trading Britain being set free from Brussels’ constraints - but how could Britain have been free trading but still dependent on captive markets? Is it a case of self image trumping [!] reality?
"Is it a case of self image trumping [!] reality?"
I think that struggle is one of the biggest issues we're facing in The West. We don't reward politicians for reconsidering their position. Granted, this might be human nature we have to fight.
I have a lot of views on Brexit but I am somewhat reluctant to spend the time listening them all out. I do think Brexit which I do not believe will be reversed on any type politically relevant timeline is in fact one of the greatest if not perhaps the greatest defeat for the American centric Atlanticism at least since 1989 if not 1945. Basically America's closest ally in terms of intelligence, law enforcement, judicial, extradition and many other forms of cooperation has immolated themselves. Yes it is unfair to say that Emmanuel Macron is "Anti American" in the way that Jose Bove is but Macron is certainly not pro-American in the way British Prime Ministers were from Thatcher to May. More significantly with Britain's departure those remaining pro American Atlanticist voices in places like Central and Eastern Europe have been marginalized. Truthfully some countries in the CEE like Hungary have long been slipping from pro American orbit but the most telling picture is if you look what countries in the EU27 have come out ahead post Brexit in terms of gaining political and economic power in the EU27 it basically the likes of Ireland, France, Luxembourg, Germany, even non EU MS Switzerland NOT the pro American trans-atlanticist CEE countries which have gained nothing in the financial services field unlike the former countries with all important implications for anti-money laundering and anti-kleptocracy initiatives.
I was watching the final Episode of Season 5 of the US TV show Billions where the villainous Billionaire Antagonist Bobby Axelrod(the final appearance of actor Damian Lewis in the show) evades American law enforcement authorities one final time by sneaking on a private jet and arriving in Switzerland as a newly minted Swiss citizen immune from extradition while on the others side of the Atlantic the FBI moving into arrest Axelrod for financial corruption charges open a decoy helicopters to find it empty. This is I think might be the analogy for the end of the UK-US transatlantic special relationship that "ruled" global finance and European economics 1945-2020.
**BTW the extradition scene in Billions is quite apt. British policy unlike Continental Europe and most unlike Switzerland has generally allowed unquestioned acceptance of US extradition requests. This policy was supported by UK politicians of all stripes including one of the afore authors Denis MacShane as part and parcel of maintaining a US-UK rule of law Anglo Saxon special relationship. This will still exist but as the UK and City of London become less important in Europe the reach of American law enforcement will diminish and if you believe in the righteousness of American justice(which I BTW don't necessarily do) then this is obviously a small example of a "bad" and harmful thing happening to America because of Brexit.
Another final comment I will make is I do not believe that calling the referendum in itself on David Cameron's parts was necessarily that ultra risky move history makes it about for the more pro American transatlanticism side(Although many like Denis Macshane warned beforehand that if a referendum was called at any point the remain was very highly likely to lose. Dennis I also believe was long in the camp for several year prior that a referendum WOULD happen). I am tired to lay it out tonight but think about what would have happened if the referendum vote was 52% in favor of staying in the EU instead of the 52% voting to leave. How that would have impacted the EU and other eurosceptic movements in other EU member states. Will lay out more about this tomorrow.
This is the video of Denis predicting there would almost certainly be a referendum all the way back in 2015 I was referring to.
This video give an overview of the episode for those with no clue what I am talking about in terms of explaining the last episode of Billions I referred to.
Claire, when did you invite Chicken Little to join the Cosmopolitan Globalist team?
If Oxley and MacShane are to be believed, the sky is falling, at least over the United Kingdom. And neither of them even mentioned the UK's biggest challenge of all; healing the rift in the Royal Family.
Let's hope Boris Johnson isn't too proud to grovel. Maybe if he gets on his hands and knees he can beg Germany and France to let his nation rejoin the EU. After all, the EU is so powerful, so competent, so streamlined and so wise, that merely by rejoining, the UK's predicament will be solved in a flash.
Who knows, maybe if the UK rejoins they can entice Ursula van der Leyven to mediate the dispute between Harry and Meghan and William and Kate. After all, nothing would be worse for the UK than that conflict getting out of hand. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Shakespeare knows that when these disputes get ugly, there's bloodshed all the way around. Maybe it's not a return to the 1970s that Oxley and MacShane should be worried about; maybe it's the threat of returning a few more centuries into the nation's violent past.
To be fair, Frau van der Leyen might be too preoccupied with her current duties to mediate that dispute. If so, perhaps the EU's brilliant diplomats could weigh in. Is anyone better equipped to negotiate a royal meeting of the minds than the brilliant Josep Borrell. No one takes the EU's foreign policy seriously so Borrell probably has plenty of time on his hands. Of course, if a British mediator is called for, the retired EU foreign policy chief, Baroness Catherine Margaret Ashton of Upholland might be recruited to assist the royals in resolving their dispute. After all, given the brilliant job she did negotiating the JCPOA with the Iranians, surely she can find common ground between the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.
But ultimately, it's all up to Boris. Does he have what it takes to admit that he was wrong and Oxley and MacShane were right all along when the said Brexit was an own goal?
I still have myself a lot to say about this subject I am just not sure of what order of importance to say it. I did listen to the this podcast below that discusses the current energy crisis in Europe with particular focus on the UK(Basically the consensus is the rest of Europe can buy there way out of it but for the UK it could get quite bad). One the claims made by the interviewee is that over the course of travelling to the UK frequently for the last 10 years it is his belief that outside of some small parts of London that the UK overall has become a visibly poorer and a more drabbier/shabbier country.
I thought this comment a little past halfway in to the podcast to be quite interesting. I know in both of your books you wrote in the 2000s about Thatcher and the End of Europe you made the case the over the course of the 80s, 90s, and 2000s, the UK stopped being the dreary shabby nation of the 60s and 70s yet it does appear the UK is going backwards and might have started going backwards for longer than many realized until they thought about.
“Scars that never felt a wound;” is that what you think, Claire? Who are you to mock the winter of our discontent?
Let’s examine the United States using the same rhetorical approach utilized by Chicken Little Oxley and his roommate in the henhouse, Chicken Little MacShane.
It would go something like this.
“Thank goodness that we can still fill up our automobiles and the toilet paper shortages of 2020 have abated, but the storm clouds on the horizon are darker, more ominous and more threatening than ever.
I haven’t felt this despondent since the stagflation of the 1970s. Prices are climbing out of control; forget buying a new car, used cars are in such short supply that you can’t find them at any price. But does it matter? With gas costing a dollar more than it cost just a year ago who can afford a car anyway?
Do you remember the 1970s when we all panicked that Japan, Inc was taking over the world? Those were the good old days; now it’s China that’s taking over the world. At least Japan was an ally; China’s an adversary.
Semiconductors, the grease that lubricates the wheel of the American economy are in such short supply that Detroit can’t build enough cars; or should I say Mexico can’t build enough cars. Mexico is the nation where the big three (of course, now it’s the big two) sent tens of thousands of once well-paying American jobs.
Aren’t we all nostalgic for the few years of energy independence that Trump gave us? Sadly, those days are gone. While fuel prices go through the roof, our current President (in his few lucid moments) is reduced to begging OPEC to pump more oil. Just a couple of days ago, they laughed in his face. Same as it ever was.
But that’s not the only diplomatic disaster the United States is facing. Who would have guessed that Trump would enjoy better relations with Europe than Biden does? If you don’t believe it; ask President Macron. As for the calamity in Afghanistan, we have to go all the way back to Viet Nam to find a bigger American collapse.
Now that I think of it, the United States of 2021 is just so reminiscent of the United States during the presidencies of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. Let’s dig out those “WIN” (whip inflation now) buttons that President Ford introduced; it sure looks like we need them.
The good news is that now we have You Tube so we can listen to President Carter’s malaise speech. It’s more pertinent now than it’s been in decades. Just like back them malaise is here, malaise is there, malaise is everywhere.
Don’t get me started about the tens of thousands of Haitians crossing into the United States from Mexico. Apparently 20 percent of them are carrying Covid; it hasn’t been this bad since the Spanish Flu of 1918 or maybe we have to go back to the Middle Ages in Europe, when the Black Plague” was ascendant to find a time in history when things were this bad.
America is collapsing; the sky is falling. Whatever are we to do?
Note to Mr. MacShane; do I understand that you worked for Tony Blair? If so, do you have any insight into the money he was hiding in those off-shore accounts that the Washington Post just reported on. Also, unless I’m mistaken, Baroness Ashton’s peerage was arranged by the Labor Party, I think at the request of Tony Blair. Do you think he might implore her to mediate the dispute between the brother royal before things get out of hand?
The current crisis does have a silver lining: It is demonstrating with crystal clarity that our political leaders and the expert class that is parasitic on government, basically have no idea what they're doing. This is useful information.
The sign and symbol of this great truth is that lifelong blowhard, liar, ignoramus, and all-around doofus, Joe Biden, our lamentable president. Every time I see him all alone, outdoors, wearing a mask despite the fact that he's fully vaccinated, I wonder why his staff does not realize that the optics, as they say, are not good. Surely if you want to promote vaccines, you ought not to behave as though you yourself don't believe that they work. Such glaring incompetence has been the hallmark of the Biden Administration thus far, on just about any issue you'd care to name.
Then there's the current uproar over the state of public education in this country. One thing that became crystal clear is that despite all the propaganda it puts out, the public education establishment is not working selflessly for the benefit for kids and their families. Kinds and their families are actually accorded low priority by teachers unions and local school boards. But the pandemic enabled parents to get a glimpse of what actually goes on in the classroom, and they didn't like what they saw. Nor did they like the totally unnecessary school closures, the distance-learning con, or the ridiculous mask mandates imposed upon their children. And when they raised their voices in protests, the establishment designated them as "domestic terrorists" and loosed the Justice Department against them. This too is useful information.
I would like to believe that our political leaders and the experts will take a lesson from their numerous screw-ups during the pandemic. Alas, it seems unlikely that any such thing will happen. In the normal course of events the ship of state would eventually return to an even keel and sail on. But events have strayed from the normal course, it seems, and these days the reaction to failure is to double down with even more failure.
I am going to have more to say on this post but I would recommend watching this video of Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute arguing that Brexit was not going to make the UK some free market paradise akin to Hong Kong of the 1970s instead it turn Britain into Britain of the 1970s.
One difference that strikes me when comparing the Winter of Discontent to the current situation in Britain is the overall political situation. In the former case it was much easier to name a culprit: the militant labor unions, who were holding the Labour Party and the country hostage to their demands. There was a sharp, bitter ideological edge to the WoD that seems not to be present today.
Of course, it would be possible to cast the climate-change Greens in the role once played by the unions. While green policies are not solely to blame for the current crisis, they have played a role, e.g. by making the UK over-reliant on "renewable" energy. Thus when the usually blustery North Sea quieted down, wind-generated energy suddenly became unavailable. In the US, this would have provided the GOP with a great talking point. But in Britain, both major parties tug their forelock to Green orthodoxy.
I’ve read that Britain lost its captive markets in the Empire after WWII, and after the post-war reconstruction boom faded the effects of that loss started becoming apparent. One of the responses to loss is an attraction to extreme ‘one pure answer’ ideologies. If that was the Left in the seventies and the Right today, is it reasonable to say that Britain is still working through that change in circumstance? In the build up to Brexit there was all this stuff written about free trading Britain being set free from Brussels’ constraints - but how could Britain have been free trading but still dependent on captive markets? Is it a case of self image trumping [!] reality?
"Is it a case of self image trumping [!] reality?"
I think that struggle is one of the biggest issues we're facing in The West. We don't reward politicians for reconsidering their position. Granted, this might be human nature we have to fight.
I have a lot of views on Brexit but I am somewhat reluctant to spend the time listening them all out. I do think Brexit which I do not believe will be reversed on any type politically relevant timeline is in fact one of the greatest if not perhaps the greatest defeat for the American centric Atlanticism at least since 1989 if not 1945. Basically America's closest ally in terms of intelligence, law enforcement, judicial, extradition and many other forms of cooperation has immolated themselves. Yes it is unfair to say that Emmanuel Macron is "Anti American" in the way that Jose Bove is but Macron is certainly not pro-American in the way British Prime Ministers were from Thatcher to May. More significantly with Britain's departure those remaining pro American Atlanticist voices in places like Central and Eastern Europe have been marginalized. Truthfully some countries in the CEE like Hungary have long been slipping from pro American orbit but the most telling picture is if you look what countries in the EU27 have come out ahead post Brexit in terms of gaining political and economic power in the EU27 it basically the likes of Ireland, France, Luxembourg, Germany, even non EU MS Switzerland NOT the pro American trans-atlanticist CEE countries which have gained nothing in the financial services field unlike the former countries with all important implications for anti-money laundering and anti-kleptocracy initiatives.
I was watching the final Episode of Season 5 of the US TV show Billions where the villainous Billionaire Antagonist Bobby Axelrod(the final appearance of actor Damian Lewis in the show) evades American law enforcement authorities one final time by sneaking on a private jet and arriving in Switzerland as a newly minted Swiss citizen immune from extradition while on the others side of the Atlantic the FBI moving into arrest Axelrod for financial corruption charges open a decoy helicopters to find it empty. This is I think might be the analogy for the end of the UK-US transatlantic special relationship that "ruled" global finance and European economics 1945-2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMDhNNYGIbg
**BTW the extradition scene in Billions is quite apt. British policy unlike Continental Europe and most unlike Switzerland has generally allowed unquestioned acceptance of US extradition requests. This policy was supported by UK politicians of all stripes including one of the afore authors Denis MacShane as part and parcel of maintaining a US-UK rule of law Anglo Saxon special relationship. This will still exist but as the UK and City of London become less important in Europe the reach of American law enforcement will diminish and if you believe in the righteousness of American justice(which I BTW don't necessarily do) then this is obviously a small example of a "bad" and harmful thing happening to America because of Brexit.
Another final comment I will make is I do not believe that calling the referendum in itself on David Cameron's parts was necessarily that ultra risky move history makes it about for the more pro American transatlanticism side(Although many like Denis Macshane warned beforehand that if a referendum was called at any point the remain was very highly likely to lose. Dennis I also believe was long in the camp for several year prior that a referendum WOULD happen). I am tired to lay it out tonight but think about what would have happened if the referendum vote was 52% in favor of staying in the EU instead of the 52% voting to leave. How that would have impacted the EU and other eurosceptic movements in other EU member states. Will lay out more about this tomorrow.
This is the video of Denis predicting there would almost certainly be a referendum all the way back in 2015 I was referring to.
https://youtu.be/lMUP1tS6j88?t=392
This video give an overview of the episode for those with no clue what I am talking about in terms of explaining the last episode of Billions I referred to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUZQMY4z1Vs
Claire, when did you invite Chicken Little to join the Cosmopolitan Globalist team?
If Oxley and MacShane are to be believed, the sky is falling, at least over the United Kingdom. And neither of them even mentioned the UK's biggest challenge of all; healing the rift in the Royal Family.
Let's hope Boris Johnson isn't too proud to grovel. Maybe if he gets on his hands and knees he can beg Germany and France to let his nation rejoin the EU. After all, the EU is so powerful, so competent, so streamlined and so wise, that merely by rejoining, the UK's predicament will be solved in a flash.
Who knows, maybe if the UK rejoins they can entice Ursula van der Leyven to mediate the dispute between Harry and Meghan and William and Kate. After all, nothing would be worse for the UK than that conflict getting out of hand. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of Shakespeare knows that when these disputes get ugly, there's bloodshed all the way around. Maybe it's not a return to the 1970s that Oxley and MacShane should be worried about; maybe it's the threat of returning a few more centuries into the nation's violent past.
To be fair, Frau van der Leyen might be too preoccupied with her current duties to mediate that dispute. If so, perhaps the EU's brilliant diplomats could weigh in. Is anyone better equipped to negotiate a royal meeting of the minds than the brilliant Josep Borrell. No one takes the EU's foreign policy seriously so Borrell probably has plenty of time on his hands. Of course, if a British mediator is called for, the retired EU foreign policy chief, Baroness Catherine Margaret Ashton of Upholland might be recruited to assist the royals in resolving their dispute. After all, given the brilliant job she did negotiating the JCPOA with the Iranians, surely she can find common ground between the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.
But ultimately, it's all up to Boris. Does he have what it takes to admit that he was wrong and Oxley and MacShane were right all along when the said Brexit was an own goal?
Your gas tank and supermarket shelves are full, I take it? He jests at scars that never felt a wound ...
I still have myself a lot to say about this subject I am just not sure of what order of importance to say it. I did listen to the this podcast below that discusses the current energy crisis in Europe with particular focus on the UK(Basically the consensus is the rest of Europe can buy there way out of it but for the UK it could get quite bad). One the claims made by the interviewee is that over the course of travelling to the UK frequently for the last 10 years it is his belief that outside of some small parts of London that the UK overall has become a visibly poorer and a more drabbier/shabbier country.
I thought this comment a little past halfway in to the podcast to be quite interesting. I know in both of your books you wrote in the 2000s about Thatcher and the End of Europe you made the case the over the course of the 80s, 90s, and 2000s, the UK stopped being the dreary shabby nation of the 60s and 70s yet it does appear the UK is going backwards and might have started going backwards for longer than many realized until they thought about.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mark-nelson-managing-director-of-the-radiant-energy-fund/id1519850086?i=1000537620021
“Scars that never felt a wound;” is that what you think, Claire? Who are you to mock the winter of our discontent?
Let’s examine the United States using the same rhetorical approach utilized by Chicken Little Oxley and his roommate in the henhouse, Chicken Little MacShane.
It would go something like this.
“Thank goodness that we can still fill up our automobiles and the toilet paper shortages of 2020 have abated, but the storm clouds on the horizon are darker, more ominous and more threatening than ever.
I haven’t felt this despondent since the stagflation of the 1970s. Prices are climbing out of control; forget buying a new car, used cars are in such short supply that you can’t find them at any price. But does it matter? With gas costing a dollar more than it cost just a year ago who can afford a car anyway?
Do you remember the 1970s when we all panicked that Japan, Inc was taking over the world? Those were the good old days; now it’s China that’s taking over the world. At least Japan was an ally; China’s an adversary.
Semiconductors, the grease that lubricates the wheel of the American economy are in such short supply that Detroit can’t build enough cars; or should I say Mexico can’t build enough cars. Mexico is the nation where the big three (of course, now it’s the big two) sent tens of thousands of once well-paying American jobs.
Aren’t we all nostalgic for the few years of energy independence that Trump gave us? Sadly, those days are gone. While fuel prices go through the roof, our current President (in his few lucid moments) is reduced to begging OPEC to pump more oil. Just a couple of days ago, they laughed in his face. Same as it ever was.
But that’s not the only diplomatic disaster the United States is facing. Who would have guessed that Trump would enjoy better relations with Europe than Biden does? If you don’t believe it; ask President Macron. As for the calamity in Afghanistan, we have to go all the way back to Viet Nam to find a bigger American collapse.
Now that I think of it, the United States of 2021 is just so reminiscent of the United States during the presidencies of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. Let’s dig out those “WIN” (whip inflation now) buttons that President Ford introduced; it sure looks like we need them.
The good news is that now we have You Tube so we can listen to President Carter’s malaise speech. It’s more pertinent now than it’s been in decades. Just like back them malaise is here, malaise is there, malaise is everywhere.
Don’t get me started about the tens of thousands of Haitians crossing into the United States from Mexico. Apparently 20 percent of them are carrying Covid; it hasn’t been this bad since the Spanish Flu of 1918 or maybe we have to go back to the Middle Ages in Europe, when the Black Plague” was ascendant to find a time in history when things were this bad.
America is collapsing; the sky is falling. Whatever are we to do?
Note to Mr. MacShane; do I understand that you worked for Tony Blair? If so, do you have any insight into the money he was hiding in those off-shore accounts that the Washington Post just reported on. Also, unless I’m mistaken, Baroness Ashton’s peerage was arranged by the Labor Party, I think at the request of Tony Blair. Do you think he might implore her to mediate the dispute between the brother royal before things get out of hand?
The current crisis does have a silver lining: It is demonstrating with crystal clarity that our political leaders and the expert class that is parasitic on government, basically have no idea what they're doing. This is useful information.
The sign and symbol of this great truth is that lifelong blowhard, liar, ignoramus, and all-around doofus, Joe Biden, our lamentable president. Every time I see him all alone, outdoors, wearing a mask despite the fact that he's fully vaccinated, I wonder why his staff does not realize that the optics, as they say, are not good. Surely if you want to promote vaccines, you ought not to behave as though you yourself don't believe that they work. Such glaring incompetence has been the hallmark of the Biden Administration thus far, on just about any issue you'd care to name.
Then there's the current uproar over the state of public education in this country. One thing that became crystal clear is that despite all the propaganda it puts out, the public education establishment is not working selflessly for the benefit for kids and their families. Kinds and their families are actually accorded low priority by teachers unions and local school boards. But the pandemic enabled parents to get a glimpse of what actually goes on in the classroom, and they didn't like what they saw. Nor did they like the totally unnecessary school closures, the distance-learning con, or the ridiculous mask mandates imposed upon their children. And when they raised their voices in protests, the establishment designated them as "domestic terrorists" and loosed the Justice Department against them. This too is useful information.
I would like to believe that our political leaders and the experts will take a lesson from their numerous screw-ups during the pandemic. Alas, it seems unlikely that any such thing will happen. In the normal course of events the ship of state would eventually return to an even keel and sail on. But events have strayed from the normal course, it seems, and these days the reaction to failure is to double down with even more failure.
I am going to have more to say on this post but I would recommend watching this video of Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute arguing that Brexit was not going to make the UK some free market paradise akin to Hong Kong of the 1970s instead it turn Britain into Britain of the 1970s.
https://youtu.be/EcIkIz98zXU?t=817