This is a great example of hindsight bias. As an accessible example, it is easy to find folks who will tell me I was an idiot for picking the Pats to win the Super Bowl when a blind man could see the KC Chiefs were the best team. Backing Brady and Belichick was a lot easier to explain in December, before they lost.
Or forget sports - the investing community sees hindsight bias all the time. There is always a genius who said to buy [insert Hot Stock here] a year ago. Or go back to 2008 - there had been widespread talk for years about regional housing bubbles. Almost no one predicted it would end with the near-death experience for the global banking system.
I'd be more impressed with this presentation of it was contrasted with the alarms and response to the 2009 swine flu and the 2003 SARS outbreak, which are comparable bugs. Also comparable in terms of public concern might be the 2015 Zika scare and the 2014 Ebola scare.
To pick one specific point, with hindsight its obvious that cancelling Mardi Gras (a 40 day event?) would have been a great move. As a matter of political (ie, human) reality, it might be easier for a mayor to cancel the Super Bowl. The cultural significance of Mardi Gras to New Orleans and the public weight behind having it go forward would have made it impossible for a mayor, acting alone, to cancel it. Cover from the governor and the President might have been enough. (Do let me add, major cities cancelled St. Patrick's Day parades, but that was March 17.)
If the conclusion is that nearly every public official in the West was unreasonable and incompetent, I'd re-examine the argument that led me to that. These are democracies - the people of New Orleans elected a mayor, not a nanny. Absent public support in the moment, bold but unpopular measures are going to be rare.
I'm stuck for examples. The mayor of San Francisco basically kicked crowds out of the Warrior home games on Mar 11. They were set to play in an empty arena but the NBA suspended their season the next day after a player tested positive. NCAA took that excuse to cancel their tournament.
Oh, a bonus quarrel: Joe Biden's "leadership" was a partisan point-scoring attack guaranteed to turn off half the country. And talking about all the international good-fellowship he'd have funded years earlier? Come on, man (to quote a future President.) Nothing in his op-ed mentioned specific stuff like tests, PPE and ventilators.
I did like this from his piece, my emphasis:
"To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come **sooner or later**."
Sooner or later?!? A clarion call on Jan 29, when every responsible official should have understood that the future is now!
Oh, no, I think I--and everyone here--appreciate very much a lively, intelligent debate. That's exactly why I suggested one, and why I tried to find the most qualified advocate of the counter-argument I could find.
Almost done! I've read the Red Dawn emails. Seems like a classic example of history being written by the winners. Is it really possible that there was no dissenting email chain? No one saying, hey, we did this in 2009 with swine flu and how did that work out - 12,000 dead? No one saying, ahh, Navarro is a nutter China hawk, ignore him?
My guess is that in a government this large there were dissenting voices that (incredibly!) are not volunteering to come forward now and document there under-estimates. Nor is the Times interested in hearing from the folks who were telling Team Trump to tap the brakes.
We are left hearing from all the people that were right, with the expectation that we will come away thinking the top officials were in over their heads. With respect to Trump I'm sure that's true, but I am a perennial skeptic of Big Government - I expect them to be slow, protect their turf, and avoid bold moves. The CDC and FDA wasted time in January? Of course they did, its what bureaucracies do! (Trump was elected in part because he claimed to understand and distrust the DC bureaucracies. He picked a bad time to put his faith in them.)
I think folks who expect the government to see more clearly than they people they lead are in for repeated disappointment.
No, you're right, it's confusing--I could have arranged it chronologically, rather than in order of importance. But I got worried people might not read it all through and my newspaper instincts took over.
I hope you are aware how highly I think of you but in your post "a preventable catastrophe " I think you have outsmarted yourself. Put another way: You are too smart for your own good. At a time when God has turned the world upside in the blink of an eye - using a microscopic entity that is not even actually alive, that is so small that all of the coronavirus in the world could fit in one beaker - what is called for first and foremost (in my opinion) is not "who is to blame?" but "who am I?" Everything we hold important and significant and powerful all of a sudden become helpless before a power that cannot even be seen except under a sophisticated microscope. One of the fundamental messages that God wanted to teach in bringing the Plagues on Egypt (as stated in the Torah) was EGYPT should know that God rules his creation. Egypt represents the great accomplishments and technology of human civilization. God snaps his finger and it disintegrates in an instant. We still haven't learned the lesson even though its happening right in front of our eyes. Instead we look to blame somebody....that's much easier than showing the humility that is desperately needed and called for. You're going the wrong way Claire, God help you. With Sincerity and Affection,, (Rabbi) Moshe Averick
Oh, I have plenty of time to ask that question, too. But I understand: Your job is to worry about my relationship with God, and I'm glad you're taking your job seriously. Our public officials' job was to worry about pandemics, however, and I'm dismayed they did not take their job seriously.
Hi Claire, It's your job also to worry about your relationship with God. He worries about you all the time...why shouldn't you worry back? take care cutie :)
Alas, if our elected (and in some countries un-elected) leaders had a little more humility, maybe we wouldn’t be in the predicament we’re in. I miss having adults in charge.
This is a great example of hindsight bias. As an accessible example, it is easy to find folks who will tell me I was an idiot for picking the Pats to win the Super Bowl when a blind man could see the KC Chiefs were the best team. Backing Brady and Belichick was a lot easier to explain in December, before they lost.
Or forget sports - the investing community sees hindsight bias all the time. There is always a genius who said to buy [insert Hot Stock here] a year ago. Or go back to 2008 - there had been widespread talk for years about regional housing bubbles. Almost no one predicted it would end with the near-death experience for the global banking system.
I'd be more impressed with this presentation of it was contrasted with the alarms and response to the 2009 swine flu and the 2003 SARS outbreak, which are comparable bugs. Also comparable in terms of public concern might be the 2015 Zika scare and the 2014 Ebola scare.
To pick one specific point, with hindsight its obvious that cancelling Mardi Gras (a 40 day event?) would have been a great move. As a matter of political (ie, human) reality, it might be easier for a mayor to cancel the Super Bowl. The cultural significance of Mardi Gras to New Orleans and the public weight behind having it go forward would have made it impossible for a mayor, acting alone, to cancel it. Cover from the governor and the President might have been enough. (Do let me add, major cities cancelled St. Patrick's Day parades, but that was March 17.)
If the conclusion is that nearly every public official in the West was unreasonable and incompetent, I'd re-examine the argument that led me to that. These are democracies - the people of New Orleans elected a mayor, not a nanny. Absent public support in the moment, bold but unpopular measures are going to be rare.
I'm stuck for examples. The mayor of San Francisco basically kicked crowds out of the Warrior home games on Mar 11. They were set to play in an empty arena but the NBA suspended their season the next day after a player tested positive. NCAA took that excuse to cancel their tournament.
Oh, a bonus quarrel: Joe Biden's "leadership" was a partisan point-scoring attack guaranteed to turn off half the country. And talking about all the international good-fellowship he'd have funded years earlier? Come on, man (to quote a future President.) Nothing in his op-ed mentioned specific stuff like tests, PPE and ventilators.
I did like this from his piece, my emphasis:
"To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come **sooner or later**."
Sooner or later?!? A clarion call on Jan 29, when every responsible official should have understood that the future is now!
Excellent comment, thanks for it.
Thank you, I'm glad you took it in the spirit of respect it was intended. I re-read my stuff sometimes and wonder what was in my coffee..
Oh, no, I think I--and everyone here--appreciate very much a lively, intelligent debate. That's exactly why I suggested one, and why I tried to find the most qualified advocate of the counter-argument I could find.
Almost done! I've read the Red Dawn emails. Seems like a classic example of history being written by the winners. Is it really possible that there was no dissenting email chain? No one saying, hey, we did this in 2009 with swine flu and how did that work out - 12,000 dead? No one saying, ahh, Navarro is a nutter China hawk, ignore him?
My guess is that in a government this large there were dissenting voices that (incredibly!) are not volunteering to come forward now and document there under-estimates. Nor is the Times interested in hearing from the folks who were telling Team Trump to tap the brakes.
We are left hearing from all the people that were right, with the expectation that we will come away thinking the top officials were in over their heads. With respect to Trump I'm sure that's true, but I am a perennial skeptic of Big Government - I expect them to be slow, protect their turf, and avoid bold moves. The CDC and FDA wasted time in January? Of course they did, its what bureaucracies do! (Trump was elected in part because he claimed to understand and distrust the DC bureaucracies. He picked a bad time to put his faith in them.)
I think folks who expect the government to see more clearly than they people they lead are in for repeated disappointment.
FYI, DEFCON counts down...DEFCON 1 is when the missiles are flying. DEFCON 5 is where we're all safe and secure in our quiet little lives.
Yes ... that's my point.
Oh, sorry. I thought you were painting a picture of a worsening situation, 4 to 3...rather than 3 to 4. Maybe it's just the arranging...
No, you're right, it's confusing--I could have arranged it chronologically, rather than in order of importance. But I got worried people might not read it all through and my newspaper instincts took over.
Ah, the ole' inverted pyramid. :)
I hope you are aware how highly I think of you but in your post "a preventable catastrophe " I think you have outsmarted yourself. Put another way: You are too smart for your own good. At a time when God has turned the world upside in the blink of an eye - using a microscopic entity that is not even actually alive, that is so small that all of the coronavirus in the world could fit in one beaker - what is called for first and foremost (in my opinion) is not "who is to blame?" but "who am I?" Everything we hold important and significant and powerful all of a sudden become helpless before a power that cannot even be seen except under a sophisticated microscope. One of the fundamental messages that God wanted to teach in bringing the Plagues on Egypt (as stated in the Torah) was EGYPT should know that God rules his creation. Egypt represents the great accomplishments and technology of human civilization. God snaps his finger and it disintegrates in an instant. We still haven't learned the lesson even though its happening right in front of our eyes. Instead we look to blame somebody....that's much easier than showing the humility that is desperately needed and called for. You're going the wrong way Claire, God help you. With Sincerity and Affection,, (Rabbi) Moshe Averick
Oh, I have plenty of time to ask that question, too. But I understand: Your job is to worry about my relationship with God, and I'm glad you're taking your job seriously. Our public officials' job was to worry about pandemics, however, and I'm dismayed they did not take their job seriously.
Hi Claire, It's your job also to worry about your relationship with God. He worries about you all the time...why shouldn't you worry back? take care cutie :)
Alas, if our elected (and in some countries un-elected) leaders had a little more humility, maybe we wouldn’t be in the predicament we’re in. I miss having adults in charge.