This is a great example of hindsight bias. As an accessible example, it is easy to find folks who will tell me I was an idiot for picking the Pats to win the Super Bowl when a blind man could see the KC Chiefs were the best team. Backing Brady and Belichick was a lot easier to explain in December, before they lost.
Or forget sports - the investing community sees hindsight bias all the time. There is always a genius who said to buy [insert Hot Stock here] a year ago. Or go back to 2008 - there had been widespread talk for years about regional housing bubbles. Almost no one predicted it would end with the near-death experience for the global banking system.
I'd be more impressed with this presentation of it was contrasted with the alarms and response to the 2009 swine flu and the 2003 SARS outbreak, which are comparable bugs. Also comparable in terms of public concern might be the 2015 Zika scare and the 2014 Ebola scare.
To pick one specific point, with hindsight its obvious that cancelling Mardi Gras (a 40 day event?) would have been a great move. As a matter of political (ie, human) reality, it might be easier for a mayor to cancel the Super Bowl. The cultural significance of Mardi Gras to New Orleans and the public weight behind having it go forward would have made it impossible for a mayor, acting alone, to cancel it. Cover from the governor and the President might have been enough. (Do let me add, major cities cancelled St. Patrick's Day parades, but that was March 17.)
If the conclusion is that nearly every public official in the West was unreasonable and incompetent, I'd re-examine the argument that led me to that. These are democracies - the people of New Orleans elected a mayor, not a nanny. Absent public support in the moment, bold but unpopular measures are going to be rare.
I'm stuck for examples. The mayor of San Francisco basically kicked crowds out of the Warrior home games on Mar 11. They were set to play in an empty arena but the NBA suspended their season the next day after a player tested positive. NCAA took that excuse to cancel their tournament.
Oh, a bonus quarrel: Joe Biden's "leadership" was a partisan point-scoring attack guaranteed to turn off half the country. And talking about all the international good-fellowship he'd have funded years earlier? Come on, man (to quote a future President.) Nothing in his op-ed mentioned specific stuff like tests, PPE and ventilators.
I did like this from his piece, my emphasis:
"To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come **sooner or later**."
Sooner or later?!? A clarion call on Jan 29, when every responsible official should have understood that the future is now!
I hope you are aware how highly I think of you but in your post "a preventable catastrophe " I think you have outsmarted yourself. Put another way: You are too smart for your own good. At a time when God has turned the world upside in the blink of an eye - using a microscopic entity that is not even actually alive, that is so small that all of the coronavirus in the world could fit in one beaker - what is called for first and foremost (in my opinion) is not "who is to blame?" but "who am I?" Everything we hold important and significant and powerful all of a sudden become helpless before a power that cannot even be seen except under a sophisticated microscope. One of the fundamental messages that God wanted to teach in bringing the Plagues on Egypt (as stated in the Torah) was EGYPT should know that God rules his creation. Egypt represents the great accomplishments and technology of human civilization. God snaps his finger and it disintegrates in an instant. We still haven't learned the lesson even though its happening right in front of our eyes. Instead we look to blame somebody....that's much easier than showing the humility that is desperately needed and called for. You're going the wrong way Claire, God help you. With Sincerity and Affection,, (Rabbi) Moshe Averick
This is a great example of hindsight bias. As an accessible example, it is easy to find folks who will tell me I was an idiot for picking the Pats to win the Super Bowl when a blind man could see the KC Chiefs were the best team. Backing Brady and Belichick was a lot easier to explain in December, before they lost.
Or forget sports - the investing community sees hindsight bias all the time. There is always a genius who said to buy [insert Hot Stock here] a year ago. Or go back to 2008 - there had been widespread talk for years about regional housing bubbles. Almost no one predicted it would end with the near-death experience for the global banking system.
I'd be more impressed with this presentation of it was contrasted with the alarms and response to the 2009 swine flu and the 2003 SARS outbreak, which are comparable bugs. Also comparable in terms of public concern might be the 2015 Zika scare and the 2014 Ebola scare.
To pick one specific point, with hindsight its obvious that cancelling Mardi Gras (a 40 day event?) would have been a great move. As a matter of political (ie, human) reality, it might be easier for a mayor to cancel the Super Bowl. The cultural significance of Mardi Gras to New Orleans and the public weight behind having it go forward would have made it impossible for a mayor, acting alone, to cancel it. Cover from the governor and the President might have been enough. (Do let me add, major cities cancelled St. Patrick's Day parades, but that was March 17.)
If the conclusion is that nearly every public official in the West was unreasonable and incompetent, I'd re-examine the argument that led me to that. These are democracies - the people of New Orleans elected a mayor, not a nanny. Absent public support in the moment, bold but unpopular measures are going to be rare.
I'm stuck for examples. The mayor of San Francisco basically kicked crowds out of the Warrior home games on Mar 11. They were set to play in an empty arena but the NBA suspended their season the next day after a player tested positive. NCAA took that excuse to cancel their tournament.
Oh, a bonus quarrel: Joe Biden's "leadership" was a partisan point-scoring attack guaranteed to turn off half the country. And talking about all the international good-fellowship he'd have funded years earlier? Come on, man (to quote a future President.) Nothing in his op-ed mentioned specific stuff like tests, PPE and ventilators.
I did like this from his piece, my emphasis:
"To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come **sooner or later**."
Sooner or later?!? A clarion call on Jan 29, when every responsible official should have understood that the future is now!
FYI, DEFCON counts down...DEFCON 1 is when the missiles are flying. DEFCON 5 is where we're all safe and secure in our quiet little lives.
I hope you are aware how highly I think of you but in your post "a preventable catastrophe " I think you have outsmarted yourself. Put another way: You are too smart for your own good. At a time when God has turned the world upside in the blink of an eye - using a microscopic entity that is not even actually alive, that is so small that all of the coronavirus in the world could fit in one beaker - what is called for first and foremost (in my opinion) is not "who is to blame?" but "who am I?" Everything we hold important and significant and powerful all of a sudden become helpless before a power that cannot even be seen except under a sophisticated microscope. One of the fundamental messages that God wanted to teach in bringing the Plagues on Egypt (as stated in the Torah) was EGYPT should know that God rules his creation. Egypt represents the great accomplishments and technology of human civilization. God snaps his finger and it disintegrates in an instant. We still haven't learned the lesson even though its happening right in front of our eyes. Instead we look to blame somebody....that's much easier than showing the humility that is desperately needed and called for. You're going the wrong way Claire, God help you. With Sincerity and Affection,, (Rabbi) Moshe Averick