Melik Kaylan: "As this column has often argued, the Central Asian C5 republics are gradually democratizing, expanding economically and bonding together very intentionally to avoid new kinds of dependence on nearby hegemons."
Or, https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-59894266 (Jan 2022)- "Security forces in the Central Asian country of Kazakhstan say they have killed rioters while trying to restore order... Meanwhile, troops from neighbouring countries, including Russia, have been sent to help "stabilise" the situation. "
And surely the lesson of Armenia/Karabakh is: a security reliance on Russia is a massive liability, whichever way things go.
My brother (who used to work for the MT) reminded me of a local joke in the Caucasus: "If Russia has to choose a side in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, it will always choose the conflict…"
I think they do - they'd be foolish not to. But I nipped over to Freedom House and checked the democracy scores of all 5 - all moving the wrong way in 22-23, except for Turkmenistan which is steady on 0/100 as Berdimuhamedov handed over power to his son!
Uzbekistan is definitely much more open than it was five years ago but to characterise the whole C5 as democratizing even gradually feels like unjustified optimism.
Yeah, “the world barely noticed” doesn’t really line up well with the headlines in many outlets for days on end.
Melik Kaylan: "As this column has often argued, the Central Asian C5 republics are gradually democratizing, expanding economically and bonding together very intentionally to avoid new kinds of dependence on nearby hegemons."
Or, https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-59894266 (Jan 2022)- "Security forces in the Central Asian country of Kazakhstan say they have killed rioters while trying to restore order... Meanwhile, troops from neighbouring countries, including Russia, have been sent to help "stabilise" the situation. "
"Democratizing" is relative ...
But also see this: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/09/28/kazakhstan-wont-help-russia-to-bust-sanctions-president-a82599. Kazakhstan understands pretty well that if Ukraine succumbs, it's next. (Before or after the Baltics and Moldova.)
And surely the lesson of Armenia/Karabakh is: a security reliance on Russia is a massive liability, whichever way things go.
My brother (who used to work for the MT) reminded me of a local joke in the Caucasus: "If Russia has to choose a side in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, it will always choose the conflict…"
I think they do - they'd be foolish not to. But I nipped over to Freedom House and checked the democracy scores of all 5 - all moving the wrong way in 22-23, except for Turkmenistan which is steady on 0/100 as Berdimuhamedov handed over power to his son!
Uzbekistan is definitely much more open than it was five years ago but to characterise the whole C5 as democratizing even gradually feels like unjustified optimism.