Could Jordan become another Middle East flashpoint?
The fall of the Hashemite Kingdom would be a nightmare scenario for the West
With war raging in the Middle East on multiple fronts — Israelis fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with threats of an eruption in the West Bank and even the Houthi militia firing at them from Yemen — this weekend brought the prospect of instability in Jordan as well.
That’s the upshot from Sunday’s attack at the Allenby Bridge crossing, in which three Israeli citizens were killed in a terrorist shooting, apparently by a Jordanian.
With so many other countries in the Middle East falling apart or hopelessly dysfunctional, it can be easy to forget the importance of Jordan. the country holds a pivotal role in the Western alliance and the US’s strategic interests in the Middle East due to its geographic position, political stability, and historical partnerships. And as it is situated at the crossroads of conflict-prone places like Iraq, Syria, Israel, and the Palestinian territories, Jordan serves as a buffer state that helps contain regional instability.
Its leadership, under King Abdullah II, has maintained a pro-Western foreign policy, making Jordan a reliable partner in counterterrorism efforts. It has been a vital member of the coalition against ISIS and continues to host American troops and intelligence operations, making it an essential hub for military and diplomatic activities in the region. The Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, in particular, has been a key site for airstrikes and operations in Syria and Iraq.
Beyond security, Jordan plays a humanitarian role as it has absorbed millions of refugees from conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Palestine. Its ability to manage these populations without succumbing to political unrest or economic collapse underscores its importance to regional stability, which, in turn, directly benefits Western interests.
Yet despite being a somewhat well-run police state, Jordan’s situation is precarious. The stability of the kingdom, which is run by Abdullah’s Hashemite family with the backing of Bedouin tribes, always appears to be somewhat in question.