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Sean's avatar

The #1 deterrent to China acting militarily has to be the fact that Trump is psychologically decompensating and we are closer than ever to a significant, irrational act — like deployment of nuclear arms — on his part. He would think nothing of the costs, which include but aren’t limited to human Chinese lives, American lives in the response, economic catastrophe from severed trade. And would think only about the (perceived) projection of strength and (perceived) benefits accruing to his re-election. The Chinese have to know that he is unstable, terrified of losing power, and absolutely capable of ordering a nuclear strike.

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Thomas McGreevy's avatar

I'm sure that Xi has thought about this, but how wedded is he to it? He doesn't give a fig for world opinion. But this action is above and beyond the purely internal actions he has taken so far. Would he tie his prestige to such a risk? Defeat is certainly possible, and the definition of defeat is correspondingly wide. Not the best course for an autocrat who is already firmly entrenched,

Will we in future associate Xi with Galtieri, both an island too far.

Thanks for the column.

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