Tuesday Morning Global Eyes

Welcome, Friends of Steve! Come join us on a round-the-world tour.

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Announcement: John is in Spain for the Holy Week, so the Elephant Cage will, sadly, be on hiatus until his return.

Let’s all give a warm welcome to the new readers who found us via a kind recommendation from Steve Schmidt. Welcome, new readers! Because you signed up to receive the Cosmopolitan Globalist, today you’re receiving GLOBAL EYES, our round-the-world news survey. It comes in a long and a short version: For the long version, just read on. For the short version, look for the items marked by the following symbols:

• 🚨Urgently important

• ★ You should know about this.

• 🌐 This is unusually well-written or interesting

Global Eyes also includes these popular premium features:

• 🥢 A Stern Scolding from the CCP: We read the state-controlled Chinese media for you and share its bracing warnings of your perfidy and decline.

• 🦇 The Daily Bat: We read the Kremlin-aligned media for you and share our favorite clips of Russian television hosts going stark-raving batshit mental.

• 🐾 The Daily Animal: After watching the Daily Bat, you’ll need it.

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SALES PITCH: This is the front page of the Washington Post today:

If that looks normal to you, you need the Cosmopolitan Globalist.

The disappearance of foreign news coverage is why the Cosmopolitan Globalist was created. Usually, this section is paywalled—but I’ll leave it off today so that you can sample seeing the world through a wider aperture.

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GLOBAL

The threat to American hegemony is real. In normal times, pessimism can look like an intellectual fad. In times like these, it becomes a starker form of realism:

Ukraine has about a month before it runs out of artillery shells, and the US Congress cannot agree to ship more. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is dead. The slaughter in Gaza continues with no end in sight. The Yemeni Houthis are attacking ships in the Red Sea. The North Koreans are testing intercontinental ballistic missiles

The post-1945 world order—written into international law, ratified by the United Nations, and kept in place by the balance of nuclear terror among major powers – is hanging by a thread. … The Western alliance doesn’t just face the challenge of doubling down on defense while maintaining unity across the Atlantic. It also now faces an “axis of resistance” that might be tempted to threaten Western hegemony with a simultaneous, coordinated challenge. …

Claire—nothing Michael Ignatieff writes here will come as a surprise to readers of CG, but it’s a good summary of the gravity of the situation. His conclusion, however, is empty: “Keeping the authoritarian axis from becoming a full-fledged alliance,” he writes, “should be America’s first-order priority.” If this were easy to do, we’d have done it.

A while ago, responding to Vivek Ramaswamy’s nutty foreign policy proposals, I explained why this is simply not within our power.

★ The War on Terror is back:

Within the Beltway, February and March tend to be busy months, when high-ranking military commanders and senior intelligence officials descend on Capitol Hill to update lawmakers on the assorted threats facing the United States. This year, however, interspersed with the usual briefings about Russia (reenergized by what it sees as flagging Western support for Ukraine) and China—with its persistent desire to dominate Taiwan—Members of Congress also heard a different and deeply unwelcome message. The conflict once called the “War on Terror” has well and truly returned. …

At the moment, America is woefully unprepared for such a resurgence.

• Afghanistan has become a terrorism staging ground again, leak reveals. A classified Pentagon assessment portrays the threat to Europe, Asia and the United States as a growing security concern:

  [Afghanistan] has become a significant coordination site for the Islamic State as the terrorist group plans attacks across Europe and Asia, and conducts “aspirational plotting” against the United States, according to a classified Pentagon assessment that portrays the threat as a growing security concern. The attack planning, detailed in US intelligence findings leaked on the Discord messaging platform and obtained by The Washington Post, reveal specific efforts to target embassies, churches, business centers and the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, which drew more than 2 million spectators last summer in Qatar. Pentagon officials were aware in December of nine such plots coordinated by ISIS leaders in Afghanistan, and the number rose to 15 by February, says the assessment, which has not been disclosed previously.

  “ISIS has been developing a cost-effective model for external operations that relies on resources from outside Afghanistan, operatives in target countries, and extensive facilitation networks,” says the assessment, which is labeled top-secret and bears the logos of several Defense Department organizations. “The model will likely enable ISIS to overcome obstacles—such as competent security services—and reduce some plot timelines, minimizing disruption opportunities.”

• The Kurdish fighters who defeated ISIS in Syria have a warning:

  “The terrorist organization still poses a great danger to our regions and the world,” the SDF said, adding that “it seeks to rebuild itself through its sleeper cells and tries to revive its dreams of regaining geographical control over some areas.” The SDF said that in order to completely eradicate IS it must dismantle “its ideological breeding ground.” The SDF is holding some 10,000 captured IS fighters in northeast Syria in around two dozen detention facilities—including 2,000 foreigners whose home countries have refused to repatriate them. US-backed Kurdish fighters also oversee some 45,000 family members of IS fighters, mostly women and children in the sprawling al-Hol camp. … The SDF said that ending the case of IS families at al-Hol camp “is a priority that cannot be overlooked or ignored, as the camp is still a ticking time bomb. … Concerns are growing about the children of ISIS who are receiving the organization’s teachings within this terrorist-infested environment This in itself poses a threat to the future of the region and the world.”

They’re right—Claire.

A decade of documenting more than 63,000 migrant deaths shows that fleeing is more lethal than ever:

More than a decade ago, the death of 600 migrants and refugees in two Mediterranean shipwrecks near Italian shores shocked the world and prompted the UN migration agency to start recording the number of people who died or went missing as they fled conflict, persecution or poverty to other countries. Governments around the world have repeatedly pledged to save migrants’ lives and fight smugglers while tightening borders. Yet ten years on … migrant deaths have soared.

🌐 Is Biden to blame for the world being on fire? Americans like to think of themselves as being at the center of the world. This can be dangerously misleading:

…. Biden cannot be blamed for the current conflicts taking place in so many disparate locations. That said, the time has come for the US to shed its long-standing shyness, and its Boy Scout approach to international relations. Many critics are right to point his finger at the State Department, which often appears to be living in an alternate reality in which sternly worded démarches have real results. In the real world, there is a place for diplomacy, but in many cases what counts is the credible threat of violence. This is not, however, a new problem. The State Department’s approach has been remarkably consistent for many decades. This does not mean America should step into every conflict the world over. It absolutely does not mean America should threaten violence everywhere and for every conflict. It does mean, however, that we need to ensure that Russia and China at least are wary of us. And it is high time we gave Iran cause to be afraid.

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RUSSIA-UKRAINE

If you missed it, I added updates to the newsletter I sent on Saturday about the Moscow terrorist attack.

★ Summary of recent events:

Over the past two weeks, Ukrainian missile strikes have targeted energy infrastructure deep within Russian territory, hitting oil refineries at such a rate that they have reduced Russia’s oil processing capacity by 7 percent. Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes in Russia’s border areas, coupled with new ground incursions by dissident Russian militias from Ukrainian territory, have prompted Russian authorities to stage evacuations and school closures in Belgorod Oblast. Meanwhile, Russia has in turn carried out high-casualty attacks across Ukraine including in Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Lviv Oblast, and energy sites like Ukraine’s largest dam. During a wave of attacks on which a Russian missile again briefly entered Polish airspace on Sunday, prompting Poland to activate its fleet of F-16s.

Why it matters: As Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian territory have grown bolder and more effective, the US has urged Ukraine to avoid strikes on oil infrastructure, claiming they could trigger retaliations and contribute to increased oil prices worldwide. Although petroleum prices have risen by 4 percent since March, Ukraine’s degradation of Russia’s energy sites could feasibly reduce Russia’s capacity to carry out a full-scale offensive in the coming months. As Russia continues to escalate its air war against Ukraine, incidents like Sunday’s violation of Polish airspace will likely continue, but the lack of stop gaps to prevent accidental escalations when such events take place pose a serious risk to security along NATO’s eastern flank.

Suspects show signs of torture as Russia files first charges in Moscow terrorist attack:

A Moscow court has charged four suspects with carrying out the deadly terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue outside of the city on Friday. Russian state media identified the defendants as Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, Shamsidin Fariduni, and Muhammadsobir Fayzov, all of whom are citizens of Tajikistan. The men reportedly pleaded guilty to terrorism charges at a closed court session on Sunday evening and were placed under pre-trial detention until May 22.

One of the defendants, Muhammadsobir Fayzov, was brought into the courtroom in a wheelchair after reportedly coming directly from the ICU. Telegram channels linked to Russia’s security services reported that he was injured “during his pursuit” by police. Multiple videos that appear to show alleged perpetrators of Friday’s attack being tortured by Russian security services began circulating on Telegram over the weekend.

A photo surfaced on social media of one of the suspects bound on the floor with his pants down and an electrocution device used for torture nearby:

The device seen at the bottom left of the photo is a Soviet TA-57 field telephone, nicknamed “Tapik,” which comes with a hand crank that can generate up to 80 volts of electricity. It is commonly used as a torture device by connecting the wires to the prisoner’s fingers, ears or genitals. At times the torturer will sprinkle the prisoner with water for extra effect. The suspect’s physical position and state of undress suggest that the visible wires were connected to his genitals.

… The device has also been widely used by Russian forces in Ukraine against civilians in a technique the soldiers nicknamed “call to Lenin” or “call to Putin.” There are documented cases of its use in Kherson and other regions of Ukraine under Russian occupation.

Putin acknowledged for the first time that “radical Islamists” were behind the attack, but suggested they were linked to Ukraine somehow:

“We know that the crime was committed by the hands of radical Islamists, whose ideology the Islamic world itself has been fighting for centuries. Of course, it is necessary to answer the question, why, after committing the crime, the terrorists tried to go to Ukraine? Who was waiting for them there? This atrocity may be just a link in a whole series of attempts by those who have been at war with our country since 2014.”

The Kremlin’s online network for spreading fake news has been circulating pseudo-journalistic articles claiming ISIS wasn’t responsible for the attack:

These articles tell the reader that Ukraine, the US, the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), and the so-called “collective West” at large were to blame. The bots are also denouncing claims by the United States government that ISIS was behind the attack …

Who do Russians blame for the Moscow concert attack?

Moscow terror attack exposes the farce of Russia’s security theater:

The misnamed security ministries exemplify more than anywhere else the Russian concept “I’m the boss and that means you’re an idiot.” This saying expresses how a subordinate must never take initiative and always remain vigilantly passive within their hierarchy. They must never question orders they were given, nor even ask for clarification. Just as corruption pays upwards, the consequences roll downhill so nobody wants to make matters worse by being a smart-ass. 

The Moscow terror attack could mean the end of Putin:

… Mass tragedies can be two-edged swords. If used wisely, they can serve as pretexts for repression and war. If used unwisely, they can expose government indifference to human suffering and spark unrest. Since wisdom isn’t exactly Putin’s strong suit, be on the lookout for more blunders and more tragedies in the weeks and months ahead. Also be on the lookout for signs of popular discontent with his handling of the attack. Massive catastrophes have often mobilized people to take action against their governments. It just might be Nazi Russia’s turn.

“A wave of repression is sweeping over us; people are terrified.” Voices of Crimea after ten years of occupation:

On March 18, 2014, shortly after the onset of military occupation, the “Treaty on the Accession of the Republic of Crimea to the Russian Federation” was signed. Before the illegitimate “referendum” of March 16, there appeared to be roughly equal numbers of supporters and opponents of annexation rallying in Crimea’s squares. Then mass repression targeting activists and Crimean Tatars (some of whom were later found dead with signs of torture), coupled with active Kremlin censorship and propaganda, crushed resistance efforts.

“The situation has worsened considerably over these ten years. While you could previously speak Ukrainian freely, now doing so is tantamount to a crime. … try conversing in Ukrainian at, say, an auto repair shop, and you'll be reported or face searches. Oppression is constant.”

“ … There are explosions in the sky all the time, sirens blare every day. We don't discuss the war. Sometimes I call a friend, she opens the window, and you can hear the sirens, but she doesn't even pay attention to it—we just keep talking.

🌐 Ukraine’s leadership crisis: Ukrainian resistance is in more peril than at any time since February 2022.

Although initially uniting Ukrainians of all backgrounds, the war has begun to splinter Ukraine’s leaders along political fault lines once again—some new, some old. In response to the battlefield failures of the last year, Zelensky not only wants to see fresh blood at the top of the hierarchy of the armed forces but is also seeking to consolidate his own political camp, seemingly placing a premium on personal loyalty and adherence to his own vision of the war’s future.

In doing so, he has delivered a significant blow to the Ukrainian army’s esprit de corps. Syrskyi was for several reasons an odd choice to replace Zaluzhnyi. He is a military traditionalist, and his record of stubborn, unimaginative fighting at the Battle of Bakhmut earned him the nickname “the Butcher.” His ascension to his new role elicited rather mixed reactions among Ukraine’s rank and file. As one Ukrainian soldier wrote on X in response to Syrskyi’s appointment: “We’re all fucked.” This soldier was not alone—only 40 percent of Ukrainians trust Syrskyi, in stark contrast to Zaluzhnyi, whom a stunning 94 percent of the country view favorably. So popular was Zaluzhnyi that Zelensky’s own approval rating dipped by five points to 60 percent after he fired the general.

★🌐 The psychological factor. Grim realities in Russia’s war against Ukraine:

“Western behavior has a huge impact on the psyche of both Ukraine and Russia. The US and Europe are still failing to convince both the victim and the aggressor that they are willing to do what is needed to win.”

Setbacks on the battlefield have a psychological impact. Seeing cities and settlements being devastated and the Armed Forces of Ukraine slowly being pushed back is straining. Seeing friends and acquaintances killed is distressing. More than 10 years of war, millions of internally displaced and refugees, destroyed homes and plans are psychologically exhausting.

As is a lack of support from your allies. Lack of commitment to victory. Running out of ammunition and air defense. The knowledge that your friends have the means needed for you to succeed but instead choose to help too little or too late, has a huge psychological impact on all. …

Russian victory in Ukraine would leave Europe at Putin’s mercy:

The Russian army has suffered extremely heavy losses over the past two years in Ukraine, but this has not deterred Putin. On the contrary, with the future of Western military aid to Ukraine currently in doubt, the Russian dictator is growing visibly more confident of securing victory. If Putin is able to extinguish Ukrainian statehood, Russia’s military potential will be dramatically enhanced by the acquisition of Ukraine’s considerable resources.

Russia is already conscripting large numbers of men in occupied regions of Ukraine and using them as cannon fodder in brutal human wave offensives. If Ukraine falls, hundreds of thousands more would be forced to join the Russian military and deployed in similar fashion. As well as extra manpower, a conquered Ukraine would also provide Russia with vast natural resources, industrial strength, and agricultural wealth. Indeed, the occupation of Ukraine would allow Russia to dominate global agricultural markets. …

The stakes could hardly be higher. If Russia’s invasion succeeds, the consequences will be felt far beyond the borders of Ukraine. The Russian military will be revitalized by the capture of Ukraine’s vast human and material resources, and will loom large on the eastern border of a NATO alliance demoralized and discredited by its failure to defend Ukrainian independence. At that point, many in the West may begin to ask why they didn’t arm Ukraine when they had the chance. By then, of course, it will be too late.

★ “Give us the damn Patriots.” Ukraine needs air defenses now:

Last week, it was reported that the US has urged Kyiv to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and oil facilities, fearing Ukrainian drone strikes will drive up global energy prices. [Ukrainian foreign minister] Kuleba wouldn’t confirm that, but asked if he sometimes feels Western allies want Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back, he replied: “Yes, I do.”

… He describes a vicious circle—weapons are withheld or delayed or supplied in insufficient numbers and then the allies say Ukraine is retreating, it is impossible for Ukraine to win. And the allies ask themselves, why they should provide Ukraine with “game-changing” weapons. “But guys, all this picture of reality that you paint for yourselves is the outcome of one simple fact—that Ukrainian soldiers do not have sufficient amounts of weapons because you did not provide them,” he said. … “I’m perfectly aware that Europeans are not used to the idea of war,” he said. “But this is a carelessness Europeans simply cannot afford—neither for themselves nor their children,” he says grimly. “Ukraine can win. But if Ukraine loses, Putin will not stop.” 

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ISRAEL-GAZA

★ Here’s the text of UN Security Council Resolution 2728, adopted on March 25, 2024, following the abstention of the United States:

The Security Council,

Guided by the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations,

Recalling all of its relevant resolutions on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question,

Reiterating its demand that all parties comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law and international human rights law, and in this regard deploring all attacks against civilians and civilian objects, as well as all violence and hostilities against civilians, and all acts of terrorism, and recalling that the taking of hostages is prohibited under international law,

Expressing deep concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, 

Acknowledging the ongoing diplomatic efforts by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, aimed at reaching a cessation of hostilities, releasing the hostages and increasing the provision and distribution of humanitarian aid,

1. Demands an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan respected by all parties leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire, and also demands the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, as well as ensuring humanitarian access to address their medical and other humanitarian needs, and further demands that the parties comply with their obligations under international law in relation to all persons they detain; 

2. Emphasizes the urgent need to expand the flow of humanitarian assistance to and reinforce the protection of civilians in the entire Gaza Strip and reiterates its demand for the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale, in line with international humanitarian law as well as resolutions 2712 (2023) and 2720 (2023);

3. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter.

Netanyahu cancels White House talks on Rafah after US allows cease-fire resolution to pass at UN.

… Afterward, US officials argued that the resolution did tie the demand for the cease-fire to the call for the release of all hostages—despite Russia and China having vetoed a US resolution last week tying a cease-fire to the release of the 134 hostages, including four Americans, held by Hamas. “Our vote does not—and I repeat that, does not—represent a shift in our policy,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday. “We’ve been clear and we’ve been consistent in our support for a cease-fire as part of a hostage deal.” 

The Prime Minister’s Office said after the vote that “the US retreated from its consistent stance in the Security Council that only a few days ago tied a ceasefire to the release of the hostages,” which China and Russia vetoed on Friday. “This retreat hurts the war effort as well as the effort to free the hostages because it gives Hamas hope that international pressure will allow them to get a ceasefire without freeing our hostages,” the Prime Minister’s Office added. “In light of the change in the American stance, Prime Minister Netanyahu decided the delegation will not depart.”

Hostage talks hit snag as Hamas sticks to maximalist demands. The terrorist group insists on “permanent ceasefire.” Jerusalem dismissed the demands, which include an Israeli military withdrawal from the enclave, a return of displaced Gazans, and the release of hundreds of terrorists from Israeli prisons, as “delusional.”

America’s abstention gives hope to Hamas:

According to unconfirmed Hebrew media reports, Israel consented over the weekend to a six-week truce, during the first phase of which it would release 700-800 Palestinian terrorists in exchange for 40 hostages. Seeing that intransigence always enables it to up its ante, Hamas didn’t give an immediate answer. It waited until after America allowed Resolution 2728 to pass with flying colors before responding—in the negative. Naturally.

The US says Hamas’s rejection of the latest hostage deal offer was issued before yesterday’s UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire and hostage deal that Washington allowed to pass.

★ The Biden administration has verified that Israel is using US-supplied weaponry in line with international law and is not blocking humanitarian supplies from entering the Gaza Strip, the State Department said:

“We have had ongoing assessments about their [Israel’s] compliance with international humanitarian law,” spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters at a briefing. “We have not found them to be in violation of international humanitarian law, either when it comes to the conduct of the war or when it comes to the provision of humanitarian assistance.”

This should really be bigger news. They’re confirming what Israel’s been saying: Israel is not blocking aid. But no one seems to have received the message: The entire world continues to believe that it is.—C.

Blinken warned Netanyahu that Israel’s security and place in the world were in peril, and “you might not realize it until it’s too late.” …

Blinken told Netanyahu and the war cabinet that he came to Israel as a friend who spent the past five months defending Israel around the world. But he warned that on the current trajectory, without a clear plan for the day after the war, Israel will be left with a major insurgency it can’t handle. “You need a coherent plan, or either you're going to be stuck in Gaza,” Blinken said, according to the source … on the current path [he said], Hamas will stay in control in Gaza or there will be anarchy, which will just create the conditions for more terrorism.

The UN ceasefire vote has transformed a widening rift between Biden and Netanyahu into a public chasm:

… “We’re kind of perplexed by this,” Kirby said, reiterating the administration’s assertion that the abstention did not represent a change in policy. “It seems like the prime minister’s office is choosing to create a perception of daylight here when they don’t need to do that.” .

Claire—it seems that way to me, too. Obviously, there’s daylight. But I can’t see why Netanyahu thinks it’s in Israel’s interest to emphasize this. What does he hope to gain by pitching a fit?

On Friday, as Blinken was visiting Tel Aviv for meetings with Netanyahu and senior aides, Israel announced its largest West Bank land seizure since 1993. The move was viewed as an enormous sign of disrespect. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich—whom the United States views as an especially problematic member of Netanyahu’s government, along with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir—boasted about the settlements.

This was indeed an enormous, idiotic sign of disrespect.

(Gendelman is the Prime Minister’s spokesman.)

Claire—if Netanyahu is hoping to embarrass Biden because he thinks a Trump administration would be more accommodating, he’s making another massive strategic misjudgment. Trump is exquisitely sensitive to the mood of his base. Netanyahu doesn’t seem to grasp that the GOP base is no longer dominated by philosemitic evangelicals, but by Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes. If Trump thought he could secure the slightest bit of advantage by saying he would have vetoed the resolution, that’s just what he would say. Instead, he gave this interview to Israel Hayom:

★ Trump urges Israel to “finish up” war in Gaza.

Q: We have seen a major rise in antisemitic attacks since October 7. What are you going to do about it?

Well, that’s because you fought back. And I think Israel made a very big mistake. I wanted to call [Israel] and say don’t do it. These photos and shots. I mean, moving shots of bombs being dropped into buildings in Gaza. And I said, Oh, that’s a terrible portrait. It’s a very bad picture for the world. The world is seeing this … every night, I would watch buildings pour down on people. It would say it was given by the Defense Ministry, and said whoever’s providing that that’s a bad image.

Q: But terrorists are hiding in those buildings.

Go and do what you have to do. But you don’t do that. And I think that’s one of the reasons that there has been a lot of kickback. If people didn’t see that, every single night I’d watch and every single one of those ... And I think Israel wanted to show that it’s tough, but sometimes you shouldn’t be doing that.

Q: Senator Chuck Schumer, just two weeks ago, called Israelis to go to the polls and change the government. And on top of that, we see, I would say daily interference by the administration. What do you think about what Schumer said about Biden’s support, or lack thereof, for Israel?

I think it’s a terrible thing to do, because it takes all of your momentum away, because they watch, and they watch the government, they watch the people what’s going on. And it shows great division in the United States, you have to have support. And you don’t have the support you used to have. Some 15 years ago, Israel had the strongest lobby. If you were a politician, you couldn’t say anything bad about Israel, that would be like the end of your political career. Today, it’s almost the opposite, I’ve never seen, you have AOC plus three, these lunatics, frankly, but you have AOC plus three plus plenty of others. And all they do is talk badly about Israel, and they hate Israel, and they hate the Jewish people. And they are open about it. Take a look at some of these, Rashida Tlaib, what she says the way she talks, and they truly hate the Jewish people. And fifteen years ago, that would have been unthinkable to be doing that. So Israel has to get, Israel has to get better with the promotional and with the public relations, because right now they’re really, they’re being hurt very badly. I think in a public relations sense.

Israel Hayom tried to get him to talk about how supportive of Israel he would be compared to Biden, but I’m not sure it went the way they hoped:

… It [October 7] was an attack that I blame on Biden because they [Hamas] have no respect for him. He can’t put two sentences together. He can’t talk. He’s a very dumb person. He’s a dumb person. His foreign policy throughout fifty years has been horrible. If you look at people that were in other administrations with him, they saw him as a weak, ineffective president, they [Hamas] would have never done that attack if I were there.

I said to many nations, 47 nations, I spoke to many of them personally, “If you buy oil from Iran, you will not do any business in the United States, and we’re going to tariff your products. Every single one of them agreed, I didn’t lose one, not one. Iran did almost no oil business, you know that nobody would buy oil because of me, they were broke, they had no money for Hamas they had no money for Hezbollah, they had no money for anybody. And now they're sitting with US$221 billion in cash. And they control Iraq which has US$300 billion in cash. It’s like a subsidiary, whether you like it or not, it’s like a subsidiary because stupidly, the United States went in and blew everything up … and number two if I was the president, they [Hamas] would have never done that, because they knew there would have been very big consequences. That being said, you have to finish up your war. To finish it up. Iran is 35 days away from having a nuclear weapon because of the incompetence of Biden; he is an incompetent president. He’s the worst president our country's ever had. And it’s so sad when I see what’s happening in Israel and Ukraine and other places. … He can’t put two sentences together. Remember this, Biden is not a friend of Israel. Because if Biden was a friend of Israel, October 7 would have never happened. Forget about what happened after October 7. October 7 would have never happened if you had a friend named Biden, because if you had the proper president, that would have never happened. …

In Israel, they say if I ran for office in Israel I’d get  98 percent of the vote. Not here we have a lot of people in the United States who are Jewish but they actually fight Israel, look at the New York Times. It’s a Jewish family. I think they hate Israel. I watch what they write in the New York Times, it’s hysterical. Now the conservative Jews love Trump, I would get the highest marks I would get  I would beat anybody [with them] they love Trump I think they are great, and they love Israel. …

How could a Jewish person vote for Kamala Harris? And essentially, you know, that’s what probably is going to happen because you look at this guy [Biden], he can’t walk down a flight of stairs, he can’t walk across a room. He can’t find the exit to a stage without five different sets of stairs. You might have Kamala Harris if this doesn't work out. Something happens to him and you have her. She supports the enemy, but he supports the enemy too.

… I was the best president in the history of Israel. But there’s never been a president and mostly anybody whether it’s a president, nobody did for Israel what I did for Israel, including defense, including billions and billions of dollars a year US$4 billion a year for years, when other people wanted to cut it off. But I will say that Israel’s in trouble right now it’s in trouble. It’s a very troubled place. An attack happened that should have never been allowed to happen, both from the Israeli standpoint and from the United States standpoint. If they respected our president, which they don’t, they have no respect for him whatsoever. That's why it wouldn’t have happened with me. But I say just be strong. Be smart. And let's get this over with and when it's over with, you’re going to be back to having a great life.

And with Iran getting a nuclear weapon, once they have a nuclear weapon, you’ll be speaking to them a lot differently than you speaking right now. They would have never had a nuclear weapon with me. They can have a nuclear weapon in 35 days. I have seven months to go, and nine months to take office. A lot of bad things can happen in that period. That’s a lot. That’s like an eternity. Seven months in this world, and especially in the Middle East, where it’s so and so combative, and so combustible, that’s a long period of time, so many bad things can happen. And also, so many good things can happen. If we had a real president, if we had a president that knew what he was doing, who could put two sentences together, that could get solved very quickly.

Trump says Israel losing global support, must end war, says Nournews, a news agency affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards:

Former US President Donald Trump, who is one of the staunchest allies of Israel, has acknowledged that the Zionist regime is losing international support over its genocidal war on the Gaza Strip. … The former president made the statements in an interview with the Zionist newspaper.

Israelis couldn’t quite figure out what Trump was trying to say:

The Biden administration thinks Israel is making a “major strategic error”by denying “major, possibly generational damage” to Israel’s reputation worldwide over its war in Gaza, according to a leaked State Department memo:

Assistant Secretary of State Bill Russo, overseeing global public affairs in the State Department, told Israeli foreign ministry officials in a call on March 13 that both the US and Israel face a “major credibility problem” as a result of the “unpopular” Israeli military offensive in Gaza, according to a US readout of the conversation.

“The Israelis seemed oblivious to the fact that they are facing major, possibly generational damage to their reputation not just in the region but elsewhere in the world,” the memo says. “We are concerned that the Israelis are missing the forest for the trees and are making a major strategic error in writing off their reputation damage.” The State Department memo recommended pressing Israeli officials on the matter “at the highest levels.”

Biden signed into law a one-year ban on US funding to UNRWA. The measure passed overwhelmingly, with bipartisan support.

★ Shin Bet announced that the IDF has seized a “significant amount of advanced arms from Iran” that Iran had smuggled into the West Bank to support Palestinian militia attacks targeting Israel. The captured arms include 83 small arms, five anti-tank mines, four grenade launchers, 15 RPGs, and 25 kilograms of plastic explosives.

Israel and Hamas dig in as international pressure builds for a cease-fire in Gaza:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday vowed to press ahead with Israel’s offensive and blasted a UN Security Council resolution calling for a pause in the fighting, saying it had emboldened Hamas to reject a separate proposal for a cease-fire and hostage release. As the war in Gaza grinds through a sixth month, each side has publicly insisted that its own idea of victory is in reach and rejected international efforts to stem the bloodshed.

Netanyahu has said Israel can achieve its aims of dismantling Hamas and returning scores of hostages if it expands its ground offensive to the southern city of Rafah, where over half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge, many in crowded tent camps. Hamas has said it will hold onto the hostages until Israel agrees to a more permanent cease-fire, withdraws its forces from Gaza and releases hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including top militants. It said late Monday that it has rejected a recent proposal that fell short of those demands — which, if fulfilled, would allow it to claim an extremely costly victory.

🌐 The myopia of the western lens: To read Israeli papers daily and compare the information within them—even the ones most scorchingly critical of Israel, like Ha’aretz—to the information presented in the US is to be continually staggered by all that’s left out by the latter.

[L]et’s compare and contrast the account of the current Israeli raid on Al-Shifa Hospital as told this week in the east vs. the west. …An article in The Times of Israel reports: “The IDF said the number of confirmed members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad captured by troops at the Gaza medical center had risen to 500, out of over 800 suspects arrested since the raid began last week… Israel has said those arrested at Shifa include several “very significant” senior Hamas and PIJ commanders.” … This would certainly seem to indicate the raid was justified and worthwhile. But you don’t need to take Israel’s word for it. An article in Lebanon's Al-Akhbar newspaper, which makes no pretense of being objective and openly supports the region’s jihadists, quoted a Hamas official who regretfully underscored the accomplishments of Israel’s raid. “Nobody should underestimate the size of the infiltration carried out by the enemy army at Al-Shifa Hospital, nor underestimate the importance of the figures who were arrested or executed,” the source reported to the paper, which itself is linked to Hezbollah. He added hopefully: “There are indications that the resistance is still fine and that all the current losses can be absorbed and lived with.”

Let’s contrast this very important admission with the coverage by the New York Times during the last week. Many if not most articles about the raid were penned by Palestinian or Muslim journalists. One was Raja Abdulrahim, who has asserted that Hamas and Hezbollah are not terrorist groups but resistance fighters. Another was Hiba Yazbek, who has repeatedly expressed outrage when Israel has killed terrorists in the act of attacking Israelis. … Unsurprisingly, the NYT articles about the Al-Shifa raid are amost exclusively about the suffering endured by the Palestinians in or near the hospital. Nearly every inch of print space is devoted to the hospital’s reduced capacity, the unsanitary conditions, the sound of gunshots and explosions, the dwindling supplies, the limited food and water, the fear, the grief, the maggots. Hamas operatives are only mentioned briefly and tangentially, as if they have nothing to do with the situation, and then only in quotes dubiously attributed to the IDF. And this is just one operation within the war. There are countless others treated in exactly the same way.

Claire—I agree.

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MIDDLE EAST

Extortion and piracy. Why the Houthis went to war in the Red Sea:

More and more reports are confirming that the Iranian-backed Houthis are engaging in extortion activities in the Red Sea, which contradicts their claim that their maritime campaign on international commercial shipping is in solidarity with the Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas war. Besides the significant costs the Houthis’ attacks are inflicting on global commerce, conducting piracy and accepting ransom money are negative developments and pose an additional threat to commercial shipping in the area. This also suggests that the Houthis might continue their assault campaign on commercial shipping in the Red Sea even after the Gaza war eventually ends. 

🌐 Why Iran’s Woman Life Freedom revolution failed. The movement has been hampered by suppression ... and internal strife:

So why did the Woman Life Freedom revolution fail? The most obvious reason is that the regime has proven adept at sustaining fear through widespread brutality—executing protestors, torturing even children, conducting its campaign of sexual violence against the detained. That brutality is paired with a sophisticated, well-funded cyber army dedicated to defaming and dividing the opposition. Those efforts have kept Iran’s democracy movement from achieving united leadership. …

A breakthrough appeared to occur at a Georgetown University conference in February, 2023, with the assemblage of the “Georgetown Coalition.” Amidst an array of high-profile figures—a Nobel Peace Prize winner, film actors, a soccer star, etc.—the most recognizable was Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah ousted in 1979. … Yet weaknesses in Pahlavi’s leadership soon became apparent. Despite, or perhaps because of, his mild-mannered disposition, Pahlavi has chosen advisors who, unlike him, grew up in the Islamic Republic and are now pushing an Iranian nationalism that publicly calls for retributive violence, summary executions, the purging of leftists, vilification of human rights defenders, and antagonism towards free media outlets.

★ On Sunday, millions of voters in Turkey head to the polls to elect mayors and administrators in local elections that will test Erdoğan’s popularity:

A victory for Erdoğan’s party might spur the Turkish leader into pursuing constitutional changes that could allow him to rule beyond his current term’s limit. Meanwhile, retaining the key cities’ municipalities would help invigorate Turkey’s opposition, left fractured and demoralized following a defeat in last year’s presidential election. … In the last local elections held in 2019, a united opposition won the municipalities of the capital Ankara and the commercial hub of Istanbul, ending the ruling party’s 25-year hold over the cities. The loss of Istanbul especially was a major blow to Erdoğan, who began his political career as mayor of the metropolis of nearly 16 million in 1994.

Analysts say winning back Istanbul and Ankara and achieving a strong showing in the ballots would stiffen Erdoğan’s resolve to introduce a new constitution that could allow him to rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends. The current constitution sets a two-term limit on the presidency. Erdoğan, 70, ran for a third term last year, citing a technicality, because the country switched to a presidential system in 2018 and his first term was held under the previous system. Erdoğan and his allies don’t currently have sufficient seats in parliament to enact a new constitution, but another electoral triumph may sway some conservative opposition parliamentarians to switch sides, analysts say.

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EUROPE

Polish conservatives refuse to accept defeat:

Last week, two irreconcilable political opponents—conservative Polish President Andrzej Duda and conservative Prime Minister Donald Tusk—traveled to Washington in an attempt to persuade Congress of the need to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. This is the only issue on which Poland’s authorities and opposition are unanimous. In parliamentary elections held this past October, a united opposition coalition of leftists, centrists, and right-wing liberals managed to interrupt the long reign of the national conservatives. Since then, numerous facts have surfaced about the former ruling party’s corruption, its surveillance of opposition politicians, and of other abuses of power. But despite the liberals’ parliamentary victory, the conservatives still hold the presidency, and a dual power situation has emerged in the country. The political divide is so pronounced that it has even spread to the judicial system, prompting Brussels to intervene by imposing sanctions on Poland. Underlying the political conflict is a societal one: The younger generation sides with the liberals, while skilled conservative apparatchiks have retained their positions in all branches of government. 

★ According to an analysis by the German intelligence services, Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with the West and could launch this conflict as soon as 2026. They’re alarmed by the reorganization of the Russian army and the increase in Russian arms production, which they believe could double Russia’s conventional military strength over the next five years. The report says it is “no longer possible to rule out” a Russian attack on NATO territory “from 2026 onwards: for example, in the Baltic States or Finland.” The German services have not made such statements publicly before. (In German.)

A former Hungarian government insider has released an audio recording that he says proves top officials conspired to cover up corruption:

Peter Magyar, a former political insider … says he has turned whistleblower to reveal the extent of the scandal. He posted a recording on Facebook and YouTube on Tuesday featuring what appeared to Varga’s voice describing how other government officials caused evidence to be removed from court records to cover up their roles in corrupt business dealings.

Serbia and Russia want to refight Kosovo, this time with disinformation:

… On March 5, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned of an increased risk of inter-ethnic violence in 2024 in the Western Balkans, and Russia and Serbia are setting informational conditions for more escalations in the region. The US and its allies can’t afford to be passive in the face of Russia’s lies. Western governments do a decent job of fact-checking Russian disinformation, but that’s not enough. The standard Western rebuttals don’t resonate with pro-Russian or pro-Serbian audiences. But other messages can gain more traction. Reaching ordinary Serbians is especially important at a time when Moscow and Belgrade are fueling ethnic tensions between Serbia and Kosovo and elsewhere in the Western Balkans.

NATO needs a new approach to Northern Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit the region like an earthquake and triggered NATO’s enlargement. But policymakers aren’t keeping up:

… NATO needs to craft a comprehensive security approach that considers Northern Europe as a whole, not merely as the sum of its individual parts. Doing so requires a fresh look at the region as it exists in its entirety. As the leader of the alliance, it is up to US policymakers to drive this process forward. … Since Peter the Great, Russia has had imperial designs on Northern Europe, and this will not change in the foreseeable future. With Sweden and Finland now in NATO, the alliance needs to act quickly to develop plans that acknowledge the new geopolitical reality of Northern Europe. Russia’s tactical-level setbacks in Ukraine should not inspire strategic complacency from NATO policymakers. … [who should see] the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO the starting point, and not the finish line, for bolstering the security of Northern Europe.

🌐 What have fourteen years of Conservative rule done to Britain? Living standards have fallen. The country is exhausted by constant drama. But the UK can’t move on from the Tories without facing up to the damage that has occurred:

[There are] two basic truths about Britain’s experience since 2010. The first is that the country has suffered grievously. These have been years of loss and waste. The UK has yet to recover from the financial crisis that began in 2008. According to one estimate, the average worker is now fourteen thousand pounds worse off per year than if earnings had continued to rise at pre-crisis rates—it is the worst period for wage growth since the Napoleonic Wars. …

High levels of employment and immigration, coupled with the enduring dynamism of London, mask a national reality of low pay, precarious jobs, and chronic underinvestment. The trains are late. The traffic is bad. The housing market is a joke. … the UK’s health performance since 2010, which includes rising infant mortality, slowing growth in children, and the return of rickets, makes it an outlier among comparable European nations.

… the second, all too obvious, fact of British life throughout this period: a single party has been responsible.

Claire—John and I will discuss this article in the Elephant Cage.

🌐 This is the way. Macron’s embrace of strategic ambiguity:

Macron, as many French commentators have noted, has embraced the venerable concept of strategic uncertainty. The purpose is to deter an adversary by complicating its risk assessment. If Russia knows for sure if French or other NATO troops are or will be deployed, it can calculate accordingly. Russia can make its next move knowing where NATO’s chess pieces are or how they will be moved next. But if Russia does not know, calculations become more difficult.

Following the attack in Moscow, France has raised the terrorist threat level to “attack emergency.” (In French.)

Claire—Earlier today, the US Embassy sent out a warning of the threat to “tourist locations, major sporting and cultural events, and other public areas that attract large numbers of civilians.” Grim. But it’s springtime in Paris (almost), and the waiters are running:

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ASIA

★ Hong Kong’s new national security law needs a robust US response:

Freedom took another hit in Hong Kong as the Chinese Communist Party and Hong Kong government used authorities under Article 23 of Hong Kong’s mini constitution, known as the Basic Law, to implement what is essentially a new national security law—an NSL 2.0. … NSL 2.0 is a death knell for civil and political liberties and will no doubt lead to further repression in Hong Kong.

The 2020 national security law, the first NSL, was bad enough … Hong Kong—once the world’s most vibrant and free economy—is now locking up its best and brightest. … Since the NSL’s implementation, Hong Kong is hardly recognizable. The NSL 2.0 goes even further. When implemented, the bill will strengthen the CCP’s hand in shutting down opposition. It uses a broad definition of national security to tamp down on what it defines as espionage and theft of state secrets, sabotage activities, treason, insurrection and sedition, and collusion with external forces, among other crimes. …

… Washington is at a crossroads. It now has an opportunity to prove America’s commitment to promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific. In particular, the Biden administration could demonstrate that the preservation of democratic norms is truly at the center of its foreign policy.

US Special Operations Forces have been permanently assigned to Taiwan’s frontline islands, preparing elite Taiwanese units for possible island defense and guerilla warfare operations against a Chinese invasion.

At least 21 people were killed last week in a suicide bombing in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar. ISIS has claimed responsibility, saying it was targeting the Taliban.

The involvement of four Tajiks in a deadly attack in Moscow has shaken Tajik society:

The region’s five former Soviet republics, led by Tajikistan, have had thousands of their citizens going to Syria and Iraq in the 2010s to fight for the Islamic State. … “This is a great tragedy for our country,” artist Daniel Rustamov [said]. Rustamov fears that “a few criminals will harm the entire Tajik people” and that “Tajiks will be persecuted in Russia,” where millions of them work to feed their families back home, against a backdrop of rising anti-migrant rhetoric.

Tajikistan, home to 9.7 million people, made the fight against terrorism a priority after it was bruised by a civil war between 1992 and 1997 involving Islamist fighters. Cross-border clashes from Afghanistan involving jihadist groups continue to plague the mountainous country, which has also suffered several attacks claimed by IS. Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, Tajikistan has been one of the regime’s main critics, concerned about the potential spread of its ideology.

The British government formally pointed the finger at China Monday for a spate of cyberattacks on UK democratic institutions:

Addressing the House of Commons, Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said “Chinese state-affiliated actors” had been behind two separate “malicious” attacks on both the U.K.’s electoral watchdog and on lawmakers themselves. Britain is slapping sanctions on two individuals in response and summoning the Chinese ambassador for a dressing down. Beijing has angrily hit back at the claims, calling them “slander.”

The assessment from British security chiefs has two strands: the targeting of elections watchdog Electoral Commission, and the targeting of MPs critical of Beijing.

The Justice Department unsealed an indictment charging seven Chinese state-sponsored hackers with a broad 14-year campaign to target US and foreign critics, businesses, and political officials:

In tandem, the Treasury Department announced sanctions on two of the hackers and a front company for their roles in breaching US critical infrastructure, including in the defense and energy sectors.

The British government joined the Biden administration on Monday in sanctioning the hackers and company for targeting parliamentarians and UK electoral commission systems between 2021 and 2022. The government also summoned the Chinese ambassador to Britain, officials in London said. The two allies are seeking to send a strong message to Beijing that malicious cyber activities that endanger national security and seek to repress dissidents abroad are unacceptable and violate international norms, US and British officials said.

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AFRICA

44-year-old opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye is set to be elected president of Senegal just over a week since he was released from prison. The ruling party’s Amadou Bâ says he has called to congratulate him.

• Who is Diomaye Faye, tipped to be next president? Faye, a former tax inspector, has pledged to weed out corruption, restore stability and prioritize economic sovereignty.

• UPDATE: Bassirou Diomaye Faye to be Senegal’s next president.

Claire—by “prioritize economic sovereignty,” he means getting rid of the CFA franc, which is tied to the euro. I’ve written here about the arguments for and against this. NB: Faye is Sonko’s right-hand man.

An explosive device killed seven soldiers in Chad during a patrol in the country’s west near Lake Chad. Chadian authorities said they suspected Boko Haram extremists from Nigeria were behind the attack.

Violence and insecurity could worsen in South Sudan after one of its key oil pipelines to international markets, which passes through neighboring Sudan, was damaged last month.

Threat of regional war intensifies as DR Congo rebels close in on Goma. All of the main supply routes into Goma are now said to be in the hands of the M23.

★ Somali pirates return, adding to global shipping crisis. Piracy was rampant off the coast of Somalia from 2008 until 2012, when NATO and the US Navy deployed to the Gulf of Aden:

More than 20 attempted hijackings since November have driven up prices for armed security guards and insurance coverage and raised the specter of possible ransom payments … Two Somali gang members told Reuters they were taking advantage of the distraction provided by Houthi strikes several hundred nautical miles to the north to get back into piracy after lying dormant for nearly a decade. …

While the threat is not as serious as it was in 2008-2014, regional officials and industry sources are concerned the problem could escalate. “If we do not stop it while it’s still in its infancy, it can become the same as it was,” Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud [said].

The conflict in Yemen is entering its tenth year, with over half of the country’s population in desperate need of aid:

“The conflict has destroyed everything … many health facilities have shut down, epidemics have spread, the diseases that felt like a part of the past have returned, such as polio and cholera,” said Dr Eman Tajeldeen, who works at the Central Laboratory in Aden.

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AMERICAS

How to save a democracy. Inside Guatemala’s liberal uprising:

Guatemala’s transformation since June 2023 may be the most startling episode of democratic renewal anywhere in the world this century. For the first time in living memory, everyday Guatemalans of all backgrounds talk with pride about their government, which they have elected and fought for in the streets. After winning an electoral landslide, President Bernardo Arévalo, a little over one month into his term, has the support of four-fifths of the population.

Guatemalans know the corrupt old regime is down, but not out. Still, the story from Guatemala is amazing, and deserves to be much better known. In a little over eight months, an unlikely coalition of intellectuals from Guatemala City and indigenous activists from many different Maya nations teamed up with parts of the business elite and the U.S. embassy to unseat a ruthless kleptocracy, all without a trace of violence. 

That’s not the kind of story you hear very often. 

The main Venezuelan opposition coalition says that electoral authorities wouldn’t let it register its presidential candidate.

Brazil’s Federal Police have launched an investigation into Bolsonaro’s two-night stay at the Hungarian embassy in Brasilia last month. His opponents think he may have been attempting to evade arrest.

★ Vigilantes defending Haiti neighborhood tooth and nail against gang attacks. In Haiti’s capital, people have become used to violence and step around the dead. Nobody knows the reason for many murders. Locals fighting back are willing to “give their heart and soul for the freedom of the neighborhood, and the freedom of this country.

About five million people in Haiti, including one in two children, are now facing acute levels of food insecurity, with 20 percent of families in the capital alone one step away from famine.

🌐 Violence in Haiti: A continuation of politics by other means?

Port-au-Prince has been under siege. But rather than all-out war, the gangs seem to be pursuing a strategy of maximum pressure, consisting of attacks interspersed with lulls. Rather than a decision taken solely by the gang leaders, our research suggests this may be the result of the relationships that still bind them to their political bosses, who could be setting (fluid) red lines without renouncing the use of violence for political ends. Moreover, we should not be blinded by the apparent unity of the gangs. Viv Ansamn is a political truce—a strategic moment of cooperation in an ocean of inter-group mistrust. Contrary to what the alliance suggests, each group remains the master of its turf, and it would be naive to think of a lasting peace between the gangs. …

The absence of a clear international strategy only exacerbates the divisions in Haiti. The more the field is open to informal negotiations, opaque strategies and contradictory messages, the stronger the influence of those who wield violent power.

🌐 A dictator known as Barbecue. How criminal groups seized power in Haiti:

Last week, Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henri resigned, unable to contain the rampagings of criminal gangs, which have stormed government buildings and freed prisoners. Meanwhile, as Haiti's legitimate authorities strive to establish a temporary government, the capital remains under the control of a figure known as Jimmy Cherizier, alias Barbecue.

The Dominican Republic is constructing a wall to keep out Haitians.

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🦇 Bat of the Day

Victoria Nuland is behind the attack in Moscow, apparently. That woman has a busy schedule. And don’t miss Margarita’s moving poetry recital at the end.

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🥢 The CCP is physically pained by you:

A diplomatic posting by the Chinese consul in Osaka:

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Today’s Animal

The Hedgehog.

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