Ep.3: Should we worry about Transnistria? (Can we even pronounce it?) What's up with Benny Gantz? Why would Biden imagine that the deal he's offering Israel is plausible?
Claire, I know it’s past the deadline, but I’ve been drinking Calvados this evening and it stimulated a brain wave. The true, certain, undoubted and obvious title for this podcast is “The Elephant Cage with Claire and John.” In eau de vie veritas.
OK, I always heard the name as TransDnistria and Wikipedia doesn't have a recording of the pronunciation or one of the name Pridnestrovie. The Romanians would say NIS-trah-nee-ja I think. So. (The national anthem is more impressive than the country it seems to me.)
At any rate: Transnistria is hopelessly indefensible. It's essentially the eastern side of the valley of the Dniester, minus the section near the Zblack sea, minus any kind of mountains on the border with Ukraine, and it has about 1000-1500 Russian troops. Annexing itself to Russia would make it Russian territory, whereupon the Ukrainians could scrape up around 7500 National Guard troops and throw them at the Russians and totally overwhelm the defenders. It would be child's play to break through to the river at multiple points and pin the Russians into individual pockets, that could then be reduced piecemeal. The Russians have no access to supplies except existing stockpiles - when those are gone it's all over. Muttering about annexing the place is Putin trying to stir up trouble and anxieties without having to do anything. It's much the same as all those other empty threats Putin has made that resulted in no action.
My main question is still why hasn't Ukraine cut an under-table-deal with the Moldovans - the Ukrainians flatten the place, annex it, and swap the western 60% of the Budjack region to the Moldovans in exchange. The population and total amount of territory would come out pretty even. Moldova would get sea access, the Ukrainians eliminate the threat, and the borders would return to to being similar to the historical boundaries of old Bessarabia. The Russians might declare war on Moldova though, so...
---
As for Gaza, the war has been pretty badly conducted (in the operational and strategic sense) which is probably why the IDF is ready to mutiny. Hamas may be eliminated in some sense but it won't be gone. Replacement Hamas will have things in hand soon enough. That's actually an ok outcome for Bibi - he wants the threat to remain as a political crutch, so he doesn't want the war to end until he has a symbolic victory in hand and the hostages back. Which is precisely why Hamas doesn't want to give them up - they need the IDF committed and inflicting endless damage on Israel's image.
Can I ask an open question to people here who are pro Israel but thinking of not supporting Biden in the fall? Why does Israel and Jews deserve a state while Ukraine and Ukrainians do not? Is it because of Holocaust and what happened to Jewish populations in much of Europe? What about Holodomor? Was the Holodomor simply not as bad as the Holocaust? Because let's not beat around the bush if you vote Trump in the fall because you think Biden is too pro Hamas you are saying Israel deserves a state but Ukraine doesn't.
Remind me again about why an American should care about anything that happens in Transnistria. I can’t think of a single reason why anyone should give a damn about this.
I gave it three days, and I'm not a fan of the podcast. Doesn't feel like it's playing to your strengths - I don't think I learned anything much about Transnistria for example, except for its new border with Romania?
If you could rope in a real Bessarabian to talk to, that would be something.
I was interested to learn that Hamas has, shall we say, suffered a certain hit to its approval rating among Palestinian Gazans. If so, that’s encouraging. I’ve always been of the opinion that the Palestinians, having been marinated in Jew hatred for decades, constituted the most fundamental obstacle to a settlement of the long-running conflict between the Jews and the Arabs. But perhaps, just perhaps, the present war has reality-checked Gaza’s Palestinians, opening a window of opportunity for a fresh start. We can but hope…
Criticisms of the IDF’s conduct of the war in Gaza need to be received with a certain skepticism. To review the early record of the US armed forces in World War Two is to be reminded that democratic states have frequently been unprepared for the crises that burst upon them. That’s the downside of a liberal political order: Leaders tend to follow the path of least resistance. Yes, Israel’s political and military leaders were probably remiss in this or that aspect of their duty. But Israel is not the Jewish Sparta, nor the Jewish Prussia—it’s more like the Jewish Athens, a turbulent democracy. And it has responded to October 7 in much the same way that America responded to December 7.
So Benny Gaetz came over to America on his own initiative, reportedly against Netanyahu’s wishes, and what kind of a reception did he get at the White House? They yelled at him.
What has to be understood is that the Gaza War has become for Biden & Co. a problem of presidential politics in an election year. Lots of people in the Democratic Party base are mad at Biden for supporting Israel. So Biden’s trying to appease the river-to-sea jihad vote while supporting Israel, an exercise in doublethink that won’t end well.
Here in the US, Israel is still strongly supported in public opinion. It’s a 70-30 issue. But as things stand at the moment, Biden’s losing the 2024 election to Trump. He and his people are petrified by the thought that his support for Israel could alienate progressives and Arab-Americans. That’s what Biden is thinking: that this Gaza thing could cost him the election.
I know these are serious issues, but I can’t help smiling over Biden’s predicament. The brush with which he was painted into this corner quivers in his own palsied fist.
Transnistria doesn’t really seem that tricky to pronounce, unless I’m supposed to do the local accent. No unusual vowels or consonant combinations. There’s a missed opportunity to locate electrical component factories there and call it Transistoria, but what can you do.
As to why they spoke up now, I’m guessing they were hoping for a collapse after the fall of Avdiivka and wanted to lay the groundwork in case they could officially join Russia.
Claire, I know it’s past the deadline, but I’ve been drinking Calvados this evening and it stimulated a brain wave. The true, certain, undoubted and obvious title for this podcast is “The Elephant Cage with Claire and John.” In eau de vie veritas.
OK, I always heard the name as TransDnistria and Wikipedia doesn't have a recording of the pronunciation or one of the name Pridnestrovie. The Romanians would say NIS-trah-nee-ja I think. So. (The national anthem is more impressive than the country it seems to me.)
At any rate: Transnistria is hopelessly indefensible. It's essentially the eastern side of the valley of the Dniester, minus the section near the Zblack sea, minus any kind of mountains on the border with Ukraine, and it has about 1000-1500 Russian troops. Annexing itself to Russia would make it Russian territory, whereupon the Ukrainians could scrape up around 7500 National Guard troops and throw them at the Russians and totally overwhelm the defenders. It would be child's play to break through to the river at multiple points and pin the Russians into individual pockets, that could then be reduced piecemeal. The Russians have no access to supplies except existing stockpiles - when those are gone it's all over. Muttering about annexing the place is Putin trying to stir up trouble and anxieties without having to do anything. It's much the same as all those other empty threats Putin has made that resulted in no action.
My main question is still why hasn't Ukraine cut an under-table-deal with the Moldovans - the Ukrainians flatten the place, annex it, and swap the western 60% of the Budjack region to the Moldovans in exchange. The population and total amount of territory would come out pretty even. Moldova would get sea access, the Ukrainians eliminate the threat, and the borders would return to to being similar to the historical boundaries of old Bessarabia. The Russians might declare war on Moldova though, so...
---
As for Gaza, the war has been pretty badly conducted (in the operational and strategic sense) which is probably why the IDF is ready to mutiny. Hamas may be eliminated in some sense but it won't be gone. Replacement Hamas will have things in hand soon enough. That's actually an ok outcome for Bibi - he wants the threat to remain as a political crutch, so he doesn't want the war to end until he has a symbolic victory in hand and the hostages back. Which is precisely why Hamas doesn't want to give them up - they need the IDF committed and inflicting endless damage on Israel's image.
elm
the politics of abattoirs
Can I ask an open question to people here who are pro Israel but thinking of not supporting Biden in the fall? Why does Israel and Jews deserve a state while Ukraine and Ukrainians do not? Is it because of Holocaust and what happened to Jewish populations in much of Europe? What about Holodomor? Was the Holodomor simply not as bad as the Holocaust? Because let's not beat around the bush if you vote Trump in the fall because you think Biden is too pro Hamas you are saying Israel deserves a state but Ukraine doesn't.
Remind me again about why an American should care about anything that happens in Transnistria. I can’t think of a single reason why anyone should give a damn about this.
I gave it three days, and I'm not a fan of the podcast. Doesn't feel like it's playing to your strengths - I don't think I learned anything much about Transnistria for example, except for its new border with Romania?
If you could rope in a real Bessarabian to talk to, that would be something.
Ok, just got finished reading all this.
I was interested to learn that Hamas has, shall we say, suffered a certain hit to its approval rating among Palestinian Gazans. If so, that’s encouraging. I’ve always been of the opinion that the Palestinians, having been marinated in Jew hatred for decades, constituted the most fundamental obstacle to a settlement of the long-running conflict between the Jews and the Arabs. But perhaps, just perhaps, the present war has reality-checked Gaza’s Palestinians, opening a window of opportunity for a fresh start. We can but hope…
Criticisms of the IDF’s conduct of the war in Gaza need to be received with a certain skepticism. To review the early record of the US armed forces in World War Two is to be reminded that democratic states have frequently been unprepared for the crises that burst upon them. That’s the downside of a liberal political order: Leaders tend to follow the path of least resistance. Yes, Israel’s political and military leaders were probably remiss in this or that aspect of their duty. But Israel is not the Jewish Sparta, nor the Jewish Prussia—it’s more like the Jewish Athens, a turbulent democracy. And it has responded to October 7 in much the same way that America responded to December 7.
So Benny Gaetz came over to America on his own initiative, reportedly against Netanyahu’s wishes, and what kind of a reception did he get at the White House? They yelled at him.
What has to be understood is that the Gaza War has become for Biden & Co. a problem of presidential politics in an election year. Lots of people in the Democratic Party base are mad at Biden for supporting Israel. So Biden’s trying to appease the river-to-sea jihad vote while supporting Israel, an exercise in doublethink that won’t end well.
Here in the US, Israel is still strongly supported in public opinion. It’s a 70-30 issue. But as things stand at the moment, Biden’s losing the 2024 election to Trump. He and his people are petrified by the thought that his support for Israel could alienate progressives and Arab-Americans. That’s what Biden is thinking: that this Gaza thing could cost him the election.
I know these are serious issues, but I can’t help smiling over Biden’s predicament. The brush with which he was painted into this corner quivers in his own palsied fist.
How about "Hot Air: Claire Berlinski and Joxley's unscripted takes on the stories that rise to the top each day".
More seriously, how about something like: "The globe in brief: Claire Berlinksi and John Oxley's daily take on world news"
I enjoy the great pertinence of all definitions of brief (sharing information, concise summary, short duration) to your podcast concept.
Transnistria doesn’t really seem that tricky to pronounce, unless I’m supposed to do the local accent. No unusual vowels or consonant combinations. There’s a missed opportunity to locate electrical component factories there and call it Transistoria, but what can you do.
As to why they spoke up now, I’m guessing they were hoping for a collapse after the fall of Avdiivka and wanted to lay the groundwork in case they could officially join Russia.
@johnoxley, here's what ChatGPT suggested. Like any of them? What does everyone else think?
"Global Snapshots with John & Claire"
"World Briefing: John & Claire Unplugged"
"InsightCast: John & Claire's International Update"
"15 Minute Globe: John & Claire's Take"
"World in Focus: The John & Claire Podcast"
"The International Scoop with John & Claire"
"John & Claire's Global Digest"
"The World Explained: John & Claire Edition"
"In the Know with John & Claire"
"Around the World in 15 Minutes: John & Claire's Podcast"
"Global Insights: The John & Claire Show"
"Worldview Snap: John & Claire's Podcast"
"Globe Talk: John & Claire's Quick Take"
"Global Dispatch: John & Claire's Update"
"Around the World in 15: John & Claire Edition"
"The World at a Glance: John & Claire's Podcast"
"International Dispatch: John & Claire Unfiltered"
"Global Roundup: John & Claire's Insight"
"Quick World View: John & Claire's Podcast"
"Global Scan: John & Claire's Briefing"
"World Pulse: John & Claire's 15-Minute Update"
"The Global Report: John & Claire on the Beat"
"Insight Brief: John & Claire's World Edition"
"World Spin: John & Claire's Snapshot"
"The Global Scoop: John & Claire's Briefing"
"The World Whirl: John & Claire's Insight"
"Quick Globe View: John & Claire's Podcast"
"Global Whispers: John & Claire's Take"
"Around the Globe in 15: John & Claire's Edition"
"World Buzz: John & Claire's Quick Dive"