Thanks very much for the links, Ms Berlinski. I took a look and found them informative. They don't refute the point that young people have a far lower infection fatality rate than older people. Nor do they refute the point that young people are more likely to be asymptomatic. There's reasonably solid evidence that children are less likely to spread the disease than teenagers and adults. All of these facts explain why a nation with a very young population (like many African nations) has an advantage over nations with aging populations like those in the United States and Europe. It is true that not all nations with young populations (like the Central American countries that you mentioned) are doing well. You are right; there is more to it than age. Mr. Nighswander suggested that the United States has a lot to learn from Ghana. Based on the facts that you've brought out about Central America, it would be more accurate to say that Hondorus has a lot to learn from Ghana.
There's also the fact that when you take similarly situated nations in terms of age, population density, etc., over time you should expect regression to the mean. Germany, which once appeared to be doing so well, now has an infection mortality rate as bad as the United States has ever had. The death rate from Covid-19 in Germany is now approaching that of the United States.
As for Mr. Nighswander's reflection on the narcissism of small differences, right now, the differences between the United States and Europe are not that small. The EU just approved the Pfizer vaccine a few weeks after the vaccine was approved in the United States, Canada and the UK. A few weeks may appear to be a short period of time, but given that thousands of people are dying from Covid-19 every week, there will surely be people who die or become very sick and hospitalized because the bureaucracy in Europe was tardy in approving the vaccine.
I don't know if it's true, but I've read in the New York Times that the only reason the EU finally approved the vaccine is because of pressure from Germany. That really says it all, doesn't it? A cumbersome bureaucracy moved to action only after bullying from the only people in the EU that count-the Germans. That really encapsulates everything wrong with the EU; a cumbersome bureaucracy unable to get out of its own way until the Germans become exercised. No wonder the UK headed out as quickly as it could.
In the longer run Mr. Nighswander will probably end up right because now that Biden has been elected, the differences between Europe and the United States are likely to get smaller and smaller. The longstanding ambition of the Democratic Party has been to make the United States more like Europe. Biden will almost certainly empower the bureaucrats, the self-appointed experts, the professors and the rest of the clerisy. By the time he leaves office in four years the differences between Europe and the United States will probably be very small indeed. Both will be sclerotic, enfeebled and in decline.
By the way a less advanced but still very important part of the vaccination process, that is the production of the actual syringes is now happening 24 by 7 at one of world's leading syringe manufacturers in Germany. Again not the most advanced or sexiest part of the process but a very important and necessary piece nonetheless.
"Biden claims the next century will be an American century. Does he mean it? If Americans truly want it to be—if they want to call the shots—they need to deliver the shots. They must literally provide vaccines to every human being alive, as fast as possible. America must lead..."
This is getting sad. In another forum, I just read a Trump supporter saying, "If the US goes, the world goes", referring to the prospect of a "leftist" Biden-Harris administration.
America has done amazing things, but really needs to deal with the fact that there's plenty of national power and human capital outside its borders. And the more aggressively this narcissistic belief that America *must* be the center of everything is pursued, the fiercer the backlash will be.
“ The West will probably set itself on fire before it asks an even more interesting question: What might it learn from Africa? Ghana has recorded 326 deaths from Covid-19. It’s entirely possible this is an undercount, but the lack of curiosity about this statistic in the Western media speaks for itself.” (Jon Nighswander)
There’s no lack of curiosity. Mortality from Covid-19 increases with age. The median age of Africans is approximately 20. The median age of the EU is more than double that. The median age of Americans approves 40. Not only is testing far less available in Africa, there is far less motivation to be tested. Asymptomatic Covid-19 is far more prevalent in young people than in older people. The African experience with Covid-19 has nothing to teach the west. It can be entirely accounted for by demographic differences.
It’s actually worse than Mr. Nighswander thinks. While it is true that a small German biotech assisted Pfizer in the development of its mRNA vaccine, the other vaccines developed by European pharmaceutical firms have failed, at least so far. The Sanofi (France) protein based vaccine developed in partnership with GSK (British) flopped and needs to be reformulated. The AstraZeneca (British/Swiss) adeno-virus vector vaccine is of questionable efficacy (and safety) because of a botched Phase III clinical trial. These European firms look like the keystone cops in comparison with their American counterparts.
Then there’s the fact that the EU still (as of 12/18/2020 1400 eastern standard time) hasn’t approved a vaccine. Tens of thousands of doses have already been administered in the United States, Canada and Great Britain. Europe’s sclerotic vaccine approval process is the perfect metaphor for Europe’s regulatory environment in general.
If the choice is between European elites or American populists, you would have to be daft to cast your lot with Europe.
The biggest problem with your analogy is that BioNTech is a German company and BTW, I know many Americans who badly wish at some level it was not as life's morality tales would be so much easier to explain. I am not all however, downplaying the role different American individuals and organization have had in vaccine development including some just a stone's throw from where I live in Massachusetts just pointing out an obvious omission.
Thanks very much for the links, Ms Berlinski. I took a look and found them informative. They don't refute the point that young people have a far lower infection fatality rate than older people. Nor do they refute the point that young people are more likely to be asymptomatic. There's reasonably solid evidence that children are less likely to spread the disease than teenagers and adults. All of these facts explain why a nation with a very young population (like many African nations) has an advantage over nations with aging populations like those in the United States and Europe. It is true that not all nations with young populations (like the Central American countries that you mentioned) are doing well. You are right; there is more to it than age. Mr. Nighswander suggested that the United States has a lot to learn from Ghana. Based on the facts that you've brought out about Central America, it would be more accurate to say that Hondorus has a lot to learn from Ghana.
There's also the fact that when you take similarly situated nations in terms of age, population density, etc., over time you should expect regression to the mean. Germany, which once appeared to be doing so well, now has an infection mortality rate as bad as the United States has ever had. The death rate from Covid-19 in Germany is now approaching that of the United States.
As for Mr. Nighswander's reflection on the narcissism of small differences, right now, the differences between the United States and Europe are not that small. The EU just approved the Pfizer vaccine a few weeks after the vaccine was approved in the United States, Canada and the UK. A few weeks may appear to be a short period of time, but given that thousands of people are dying from Covid-19 every week, there will surely be people who die or become very sick and hospitalized because the bureaucracy in Europe was tardy in approving the vaccine.
I don't know if it's true, but I've read in the New York Times that the only reason the EU finally approved the vaccine is because of pressure from Germany. That really says it all, doesn't it? A cumbersome bureaucracy moved to action only after bullying from the only people in the EU that count-the Germans. That really encapsulates everything wrong with the EU; a cumbersome bureaucracy unable to get out of its own way until the Germans become exercised. No wonder the UK headed out as quickly as it could.
In the longer run Mr. Nighswander will probably end up right because now that Biden has been elected, the differences between Europe and the United States are likely to get smaller and smaller. The longstanding ambition of the Democratic Party has been to make the United States more like Europe. Biden will almost certainly empower the bureaucrats, the self-appointed experts, the professors and the rest of the clerisy. By the time he leaves office in four years the differences between Europe and the United States will probably be very small indeed. Both will be sclerotic, enfeebled and in decline.
By the way a less advanced but still very important part of the vaccination process, that is the production of the actual syringes is now happening 24 by 7 at one of world's leading syringe manufacturers in Germany. Again not the most advanced or sexiest part of the process but a very important and necessary piece nonetheless.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2038387
"Biden claims the next century will be an American century. Does he mean it? If Americans truly want it to be—if they want to call the shots—they need to deliver the shots. They must literally provide vaccines to every human being alive, as fast as possible. America must lead..."
This is getting sad. In another forum, I just read a Trump supporter saying, "If the US goes, the world goes", referring to the prospect of a "leftist" Biden-Harris administration.
America has done amazing things, but really needs to deal with the fact that there's plenty of national power and human capital outside its borders. And the more aggressively this narcissistic belief that America *must* be the center of everything is pursued, the fiercer the backlash will be.
“ The West will probably set itself on fire before it asks an even more interesting question: What might it learn from Africa? Ghana has recorded 326 deaths from Covid-19. It’s entirely possible this is an undercount, but the lack of curiosity about this statistic in the Western media speaks for itself.” (Jon Nighswander)
There’s no lack of curiosity. Mortality from Covid-19 increases with age. The median age of Africans is approximately 20. The median age of the EU is more than double that. The median age of Americans approves 40. Not only is testing far less available in Africa, there is far less motivation to be tested. Asymptomatic Covid-19 is far more prevalent in young people than in older people. The African experience with Covid-19 has nothing to teach the west. It can be entirely accounted for by demographic differences.
It’s actually worse than Mr. Nighswander thinks. While it is true that a small German biotech assisted Pfizer in the development of its mRNA vaccine, the other vaccines developed by European pharmaceutical firms have failed, at least so far. The Sanofi (France) protein based vaccine developed in partnership with GSK (British) flopped and needs to be reformulated. The AstraZeneca (British/Swiss) adeno-virus vector vaccine is of questionable efficacy (and safety) because of a botched Phase III clinical trial. These European firms look like the keystone cops in comparison with their American counterparts.
Then there’s the fact that the EU still (as of 12/18/2020 1400 eastern standard time) hasn’t approved a vaccine. Tens of thousands of doses have already been administered in the United States, Canada and Great Britain. Europe’s sclerotic vaccine approval process is the perfect metaphor for Europe’s regulatory environment in general.
If the choice is between European elites or American populists, you would have to be daft to cast your lot with Europe.
The biggest problem with your analogy is that BioNTech is a German company and BTW, I know many Americans who badly wish at some level it was not as life's morality tales would be so much easier to explain. I am not all however, downplaying the role different American individuals and organization have had in vaccine development including some just a stone's throw from where I live in Massachusetts just pointing out an obvious omission.