Simon Pearce: "Gray-zone attacks lie outside the categories Western security institutions were designed to confront, even when their cumulative effects are obvious."
Super interesting and compelling framing. Also feels like a big ask. What are the levers through which such a fundamental institutional adjustment might be achieved? Is there any historical precedent for such a change in strategic and operational orientation without disruptive destruction first?
These are the right questions, and I intend to take them up in future essays. The short answer is that if there are any examples, I'm not aware of them. Hoyer et al. (2025) published a paper on exits from a structural demographic crisis, which is helpful but limited and somewhat pessimistic (many of their examples point to war as the off-ramp from internal institutional crises).
For context, I referenced that paper in another essay in the series that focuses more directly on Turchin's Structural-Demographic cycles and their role in institutional decay and renewal.
Thanks so much for the link. I wasn’t aware of this work, and I find it absolutely fascinating, frame-shifting, and resonant. I’m reading Piketty at the same time, an interesting juxtaposition. New subscriber to you, now, and grateful to you and TCG for all your work.
Simon Pearce: "Gray-zone attacks lie outside the categories Western security institutions were designed to confront, even when their cumulative effects are obvious."
Super interesting and compelling framing. Also feels like a big ask. What are the levers through which such a fundamental institutional adjustment might be achieved? Is there any historical precedent for such a change in strategic and operational orientation without disruptive destruction first?
These are the right questions, and I intend to take them up in future essays. The short answer is that if there are any examples, I'm not aware of them. Hoyer et al. (2025) published a paper on exits from a structural demographic crisis, which is helpful but limited and somewhat pessimistic (many of their examples point to war as the off-ramp from internal institutional crises).
For context, I referenced that paper in another essay in the series that focuses more directly on Turchin's Structural-Demographic cycles and their role in institutional decay and renewal.
https://theliminallens.substack.com/p/democracys-edge-elite-overproduction?r=dvftt
As Turchin notes (and I agree), this area is under-theorized.
You've correctly identified where we need to focus for future work.
Thanks so much for the link. I wasn’t aware of this work, and I find it absolutely fascinating, frame-shifting, and resonant. I’m reading Piketty at the same time, an interesting juxtaposition. New subscriber to you, now, and grateful to you and TCG for all your work.
Glad you like it. Be sure to check out Turchin's work also. I link to him quite a bit, and his SD model is a very useful foundation for my work.