1) The UK will continue its descent into third world status.
2) Keir Starmer’s popularity will continue to plunge and he will finish the year as an even more unpopular British leader than Liz Truss.
3) In the upcoming German elections, the AfD will secure 35 percent of the vote but will be shut out of the governing coalition.
4) The German economy will continue to fail and economic growth in Germany will be close to non-existent.
5) The romance between Giorgi Meloni and Elon Musk will become public.
6) As one of his first acts as President, Donald Trump will order that federal charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams be dropped or alternatively, Trump will simply pardon Mayor Adams.
7) The ratings of MSNBC and CNN will continue to collapse and by the end of the year, both cable news channels will have new owners.
8) The Netflix adaptation of Garcia-Marquez’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude” will win at least three Emmy Awards including: Outstanding or Limited Anthology Series, Outstanding Directing and Outstanding Writing.
9) Christopher Nolan (the Director of Oppenheimer) will begin shooting his new epic, Homer’s “Odyssey.” The film will not appear in theaters until 2027.
10) Claire Berlinski will continue her excellent efforts to inform her readers, but it will occur to her to expand the number of topics that she covers beyond the emphasis on just Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. A personal plea from a loyal reader (me); more social commentary where she excels would be great!
1) Third World Status: Non-industrial or deindustrializing. Resource poor. Low income or declining income. Large or increasing income gaps between rich and poor. The UK is deindustrializing and the gap between social classes is increasing. Like many third world nations, its politics are frought.
3) I think Germans are lying to the poll takers. Like Trump, I think there’s a hidden AfD vote.
4) Increasing competition from the Chinese which is even more mercantilist than the Germans. The serious troubles of the German auto industry and, most importantly, the collapse of Germany’s access to cheap energy. Shutting down its nuclear industry was catastrophic.
5)Have you seen photographs or videos of Meloni and Musk together? Admittedly she’s a bit of a flirt but to the naked eye, it sure looks like romance.
6)40 percent chance Trump will order the case be dropped. 75 percent that he will give Adam’s a pardon.
7)It hasn’t been a slow decline; it’s been a precipitous decline since the election. Since November, CNN’s viewership has declined 47 percent and MSNBC’s viewership has declined 53 percent. Both cable channels are supposedly up for sale. By the way, a big shake up of CBS News is on the way once its new owners take over later in 2025.
8) It’s a remarkable cinematic achievement. Do yourself a favor and watch it. You will be glad you did. The series is true to the book. It’s a masterpiece.
9)Yes the movie was announced. My prediction is that filming will begin. To my way of thinking, The Oddysey is one of the first examples of magic realism. Homer’s exploration of magic realism preceded Garcia-Marquez by thousands of years.
10)So many topics to explore; the collapse of the “me too movement.” How to integrate immigrants successfully. The pluses and minuses of various national health care systems. In terms of politics, the possibility of cooperation versus conflict between India and China. I could go on and on.
(Click for chart view. Usual caveats about current prices vs PPP equivalents apply. GDP may go up as well as down. Always speak to your financial adviser before investing.)
I'M WRITING IN CAPS NOT BECAUSE I'M SCREAMING, BUT TO DISAMBIGUATE MY WORDS FROM YOURS.
1) The UK will continue its descent into third world status.
DEFINE THIRD WORLD STATUS. WHAT ARE THE CONCRETE MARKERS? CAN YOU EXPLAIN YOUR REASONING STEP-BY-STEP, AND DESCRIBE WHAT WOULD HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS TO BE TRUE?
2) Keir Starmer’s popularity will continue to plunge and he will finish the year as an even more unpopular British leader than Liz Truss.
BY WHOM WILL HIS POPULARITY BE MEASURED? PEW? CAN YOU EXPLAIN YOUR REASONING ON THIS ONE TOO?
3) In the upcoming German elections, the AfD will secure 35 percent of the vote but will be shut out of the governing coalition.
THE AFD HASN'T BEEN POLLING ANYWHERE NEAR THIS. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN TO IMPROVE THEIR POPULARITY THIS MUCH? OR DO YOU THINK PEOPLE ARE LYING TO POLLSTERS? THIS IS A PRETTY SEVERE DEPARTURE FROM THE BEGIN WITH THE BASE RATE PRINCIPLE WHY?
4) The German economy will continue to fail and economic growth in Germany will be close to non-existent.
AGAIN, EXPLAIN YOUR REASONING. (I AGREE, BY THE WAY.)
5) The romance between Giorgi Meloni and Elon Musk will become public.
THERE'S A ROMANCE BETWEEN GIORGIA MELONI AND ELON MUSK?
6) As one of his first acts as President, Donald Trump will order that federal charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams be dropped or alternatively, Trump will simply pardon Mayor Adams.
COULD BE. WANT TO OFFER ODDS ON THIS?
7) The ratings of MSNBC and CNN will continue to collapse and by the end of the year, both cable news channels will have new owners.
AREN'T THERE PLANS TO SELL MSNBC RIGHT NOW? DEFINE "COLLAPSE." IS IT DIFFERENT FROM THE SLOW DECLINE WE'VE SEEN SO FAR? IF YOU EXPECT THE RATE OF DECLINE TO SPEED PRECIPITOUSLY, WHY?
8) The Netflix adaptation of Garcia-Marquez’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude” will win at least three Emmy Awards including: Outstanding or Limited Anthology Series, Outstanding Directing and Outstanding Writing.
COULD BE. IS IT THAT GOOD?
9) Christopher Nolan (the Director of Oppenheimer) will begin shooting his new epic, Homer’s “Odyssey.” The film will not appear in theaters until 2027.
THIS IS ALREADY BEEN ANNOUNCED, SO I DON'T KNOW IF IT COUNTS AS A PREDICTION. I SUPPOSE IT DOES, SINCE IT'S IN THE FUTURE, BUT IT'S PRETTY EASY.
10) Claire Berlinski will continue her excellent efforts to inform her readers, but it will occur to her to expand the number of topics that she covers beyond the emphasis on just Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. A personal plea from a loyal reader (me); more social commentary where she excels would be great!
WHAT KIND OF SOCIAL COMMENTARY? AND YES, I THINK A LOT HAS BEEN NEGLECTED GIVEN OUR FOCUS ON UKRAINE AND THE MIDDLE EAST. YOU'RE RIGHT.
One hint; if you decide to watch “One Hundred Years of Solitude,” note that it can be watched dubbed in either English or French. Don’t watch these versions. It was filmed in Spanish and most of the actors are from Columbia. Watch the Spanish version with either English or French subtitles (which ever you prefer). Watching it this way gives you a taste of Garcia-Marquez’s poetic prose even if you don’t understand Spanish.
We have one other report of a technical problem, below. But Owen isn't reporting the same problem. Can you try reloading it to see if the problem reproduces itself? Could I trouble you to send me a screenshot if it does? I'll send it to Substack and see if we can figure out what's going wrong. (Is anyone else having this problem?)
In spite of giving mostly negative opinions (guesses?) in the poll, I am very optimistic about the foreign affairs potential for 2025.
I believe that people are starting to wake up to the neegative trends. That makes them receptive to alternative solutions.
And many of the bozos in power are leaving, creating an opportunity for talent to enter (though experience suggests that more bozos will surface to continue the incompetence).
These are such good questions Claire! Had to show my ignorance by not responding to a couple due to my lack of knowledge but there were definitely several on there where I had to choose answer and secretly wish that it wouldn't come true even though it seems like it will!!
Predictions for 2025
1) The UK will continue its descent into third world status.
2) Keir Starmer’s popularity will continue to plunge and he will finish the year as an even more unpopular British leader than Liz Truss.
3) In the upcoming German elections, the AfD will secure 35 percent of the vote but will be shut out of the governing coalition.
4) The German economy will continue to fail and economic growth in Germany will be close to non-existent.
5) The romance between Giorgi Meloni and Elon Musk will become public.
6) As one of his first acts as President, Donald Trump will order that federal charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams be dropped or alternatively, Trump will simply pardon Mayor Adams.
7) The ratings of MSNBC and CNN will continue to collapse and by the end of the year, both cable news channels will have new owners.
8) The Netflix adaptation of Garcia-Marquez’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude” will win at least three Emmy Awards including: Outstanding or Limited Anthology Series, Outstanding Directing and Outstanding Writing.
9) Christopher Nolan (the Director of Oppenheimer) will begin shooting his new epic, Homer’s “Odyssey.” The film will not appear in theaters until 2027.
10) Claire Berlinski will continue her excellent efforts to inform her readers, but it will occur to her to expand the number of topics that she covers beyond the emphasis on just Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. A personal plea from a loyal reader (me); more social commentary where she excels would be great!
AfD 35%? Dream on.
Thank you, Tom. A happy healthy and prosperous New Year to you and those you care about.
1) Third World Status: Non-industrial or deindustrializing. Resource poor. Low income or declining income. Large or increasing income gaps between rich and poor. The UK is deindustrializing and the gap between social classes is increasing. Like many third world nations, its politics are frought.
2) Starmer’s popularity has already cratered. See, https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-keir-starmer-labour-suffers-historic-drop-in-approval-ratings/
3) I think Germans are lying to the poll takers. Like Trump, I think there’s a hidden AfD vote.
4) Increasing competition from the Chinese which is even more mercantilist than the Germans. The serious troubles of the German auto industry and, most importantly, the collapse of Germany’s access to cheap energy. Shutting down its nuclear industry was catastrophic.
5)Have you seen photographs or videos of Meloni and Musk together? Admittedly she’s a bit of a flirt but to the naked eye, it sure looks like romance.
6)40 percent chance Trump will order the case be dropped. 75 percent that he will give Adam’s a pardon.
7)It hasn’t been a slow decline; it’s been a precipitous decline since the election. Since November, CNN’s viewership has declined 47 percent and MSNBC’s viewership has declined 53 percent. Both cable channels are supposedly up for sale. By the way, a big shake up of CBS News is on the way once its new owners take over later in 2025.
8) It’s a remarkable cinematic achievement. Do yourself a favor and watch it. You will be glad you did. The series is true to the book. It’s a masterpiece.
9)Yes the movie was announced. My prediction is that filming will begin. To my way of thinking, The Oddysey is one of the first examples of magic realism. Homer’s exploration of magic realism preceded Garcia-Marquez by thousands of years.
10)So many topics to explore; the collapse of the “me too movement.” How to integrate immigrants successfully. The pluses and minuses of various national health care systems. In terms of politics, the possibility of cooperation versus conflict between India and China. I could go on and on.
A very happy new year to you, Wigwag!
And if we're going down, we're taking the neighbours with us...
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/GBR/DEU/FRA?year=2025
(Click for chart view. Usual caveats about current prices vs PPP equivalents apply. GDP may go up as well as down. Always speak to your financial adviser before investing.)
I'M WRITING IN CAPS NOT BECAUSE I'M SCREAMING, BUT TO DISAMBIGUATE MY WORDS FROM YOURS.
1) The UK will continue its descent into third world status.
DEFINE THIRD WORLD STATUS. WHAT ARE THE CONCRETE MARKERS? CAN YOU EXPLAIN YOUR REASONING STEP-BY-STEP, AND DESCRIBE WHAT WOULD HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS TO BE TRUE?
2) Keir Starmer’s popularity will continue to plunge and he will finish the year as an even more unpopular British leader than Liz Truss.
BY WHOM WILL HIS POPULARITY BE MEASURED? PEW? CAN YOU EXPLAIN YOUR REASONING ON THIS ONE TOO?
3) In the upcoming German elections, the AfD will secure 35 percent of the vote but will be shut out of the governing coalition.
THE AFD HASN'T BEEN POLLING ANYWHERE NEAR THIS. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN TO IMPROVE THEIR POPULARITY THIS MUCH? OR DO YOU THINK PEOPLE ARE LYING TO POLLSTERS? THIS IS A PRETTY SEVERE DEPARTURE FROM THE BEGIN WITH THE BASE RATE PRINCIPLE WHY?
4) The German economy will continue to fail and economic growth in Germany will be close to non-existent.
AGAIN, EXPLAIN YOUR REASONING. (I AGREE, BY THE WAY.)
5) The romance between Giorgi Meloni and Elon Musk will become public.
THERE'S A ROMANCE BETWEEN GIORGIA MELONI AND ELON MUSK?
6) As one of his first acts as President, Donald Trump will order that federal charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams be dropped or alternatively, Trump will simply pardon Mayor Adams.
COULD BE. WANT TO OFFER ODDS ON THIS?
7) The ratings of MSNBC and CNN will continue to collapse and by the end of the year, both cable news channels will have new owners.
AREN'T THERE PLANS TO SELL MSNBC RIGHT NOW? DEFINE "COLLAPSE." IS IT DIFFERENT FROM THE SLOW DECLINE WE'VE SEEN SO FAR? IF YOU EXPECT THE RATE OF DECLINE TO SPEED PRECIPITOUSLY, WHY?
8) The Netflix adaptation of Garcia-Marquez’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude” will win at least three Emmy Awards including: Outstanding or Limited Anthology Series, Outstanding Directing and Outstanding Writing.
COULD BE. IS IT THAT GOOD?
9) Christopher Nolan (the Director of Oppenheimer) will begin shooting his new epic, Homer’s “Odyssey.” The film will not appear in theaters until 2027.
THIS IS ALREADY BEEN ANNOUNCED, SO I DON'T KNOW IF IT COUNTS AS A PREDICTION. I SUPPOSE IT DOES, SINCE IT'S IN THE FUTURE, BUT IT'S PRETTY EASY.
10) Claire Berlinski will continue her excellent efforts to inform her readers, but it will occur to her to expand the number of topics that she covers beyond the emphasis on just Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. A personal plea from a loyal reader (me); more social commentary where she excels would be great!
WHAT KIND OF SOCIAL COMMENTARY? AND YES, I THINK A LOT HAS BEEN NEGLECTED GIVEN OUR FOCUS ON UKRAINE AND THE MIDDLE EAST. YOU'RE RIGHT.
One hint; if you decide to watch “One Hundred Years of Solitude,” note that it can be watched dubbed in either English or French. Don’t watch these versions. It was filmed in Spanish and most of the actors are from Columbia. Watch the Spanish version with either English or French subtitles (which ever you prefer). Watching it this way gives you a taste of Garcia-Marquez’s poetic prose even if you don’t understand Spanish.
(Quiz B arrived with only the first three questions present. All following entries display on individual lines reading:
Something went wrong.
So far this seems to represent a transmission or mail-sender server problem of some sort, rather than a reception error? Sorry for the quibble!)
Uh-oh.
We have one other report of a technical problem, below. But Owen isn't reporting the same problem. Can you try reloading it to see if the problem reproduces itself? Could I trouble you to send me a screenshot if it does? I'll send it to Substack and see if we can figure out what's going wrong. (Is anyone else having this problem?)
Details sent, thank you. Unlikely to merit any of your time to chase.
For some reason on Quiz B most of the answers were already selected. I assume based on what I chose in Quiz A. But not all of them.
In spite of giving mostly negative opinions (guesses?) in the poll, I am very optimistic about the foreign affairs potential for 2025.
I believe that people are starting to wake up to the neegative trends. That makes them receptive to alternative solutions.
And many of the bozos in power are leaving, creating an opportunity for talent to enter (though experience suggests that more bozos will surface to continue the incompetence).
These are such good questions Claire! Had to show my ignorance by not responding to a couple due to my lack of knowledge but there were definitely several on there where I had to choose answer and secretly wish that it wouldn't come true even though it seems like it will!!