GLOBAL EYES: UKRAINE AND RUSSIA

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A Russian-made T-80 tank on display in Kyiv. Artem_Apukhtin via Pixabay

Summary A: Ukrainian forces have been making significant military progress south of Bakhmut, with shaping operations underway in preparation for a major offensive. Despite the uncertainties of war, the US and Britain have affirmed their sustained support for Ukraine, irrespective of the 2024 US election outcomes. Tensions are evident within Russian ranks, with the founder of the Wagner Group, Evgeny Prigozhin, criticizing troops for abandoning their positions. Meanwhile, the US has expedited its military support, sending tanks to Germany for Ukrainian training. Ukrainian air defenses have significantly improved, deterring Russian aircraft and shaping the war’s course. However, staffing issues loom at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as Russia plans to relocate Ukrainian staff. China is sending a high-ranking envoy to Ukraine, Russia, and other European nations, while Britain has supplied Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles for defensive use. Interestingly, a village is being planned in Moscow for American and Canadian conservatives wishing to immigrate to Russia, citing concerns over radical changes in their home countries’ values.

Summary B: Ukraine is advancing south of Bakhmut. Horrified Russian military bloggers think the counteroffensive has begun. Prigozhin is wigging out—again—about Ukraine’s process and accusing regular Russian troops of abandoning their positions. (The Kremlin, it seems, has just about had it with Prigozhin, especially because he referred to Putin in his latest video as clueless “a happy Grandpa” who turns out to be a “complete dickhead.”) Zelensky says the counteroffensive has not begun: He’s waiting for more weapons. But US officials confirm that Ukraine has begun “shaping operations.” Britain and the UK have pledged to keep supporting Ukraine whether or not the counteroffensive succeeds. The good news: The US is getting Abrams tanks to Germany ahead of schedule, Britain has agreed to give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles, and Ukrainian air defenses are getting better and better. The bad news: There’s a “catastrophic lack of qualified personnel” at the Zaporizhzhia nuke plant. Finally: A list of the weapons Ukraine still needs, and a story about the weirdo village Russia is building for very confused Americans who want to emigrate because they think Russia is a Christian paradise.

Ukrainians expand area of operation south of Bakhmut, continue to gain ground. New footage showing them operating almost three kilometers away from the May 9 positions and clearing Russian tree lines near Kurdiumivka.

Ukrainian forces have begun shaping operations for counteroffensive, senior US military official says:

Shaping involves striking targets such as weapons depots, command centers and armor and artillery systems to prepare the battlefield for advancing forces. It’s a standard tactic made prior to major combined operations. … These shaping operations could continue for many days before the bulk of any planned Ukrainian offensive.

Britain and the United States will continue supporting Ukraine regardless of whether its military can recover territory from Russia in a planned counteroffensive, said British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Secretary of State Antony Blinken:

While Ukrainian forces have performed far better on the battlefield than many Western partners had expected, Cleverly said, anything is possible in the period ahead as Moscow pours massive quantities of men and firepower into Ukraine. “This is not a film,” he said. “There are no certainties when it comes to conflict.”

Blinken said the United States likewise would provide indefinite backing to Ukraine, saying that assistance to Kyiv in the war shouldn’t be seen as competing with priorities that have taken a deadly toll at home such as gun violence and the opioid epidemic. “There is not a zero sum choice between some of the work we’re doing around the world and the work that we’re doing at home,” he said.

Russian Defense Ministry official says Ukrainian troops advancing in direction of Soledar along entire contact line:

A Russian Defense Ministry representative reported that Ukrainian forces were advancing in the tactical direction of Soledar “along the entire contact line extending more than 95 kilometers.” According to the official, Ukrainian units carried out 26 attacks involving a total of more than 1,000 troops and as many as 40 tanks. “All of the Ukrainian units’ attacks were repelled. No breakthroughs in Russia’s defenses were permitted,” he said. … [Yesterday] evening, pro-invasion Russian war bloggers began writing that Ukraine’s long-anticipated counteroffensive had begun, claiming that Ukrainian troops had broken through Russia’s defenses around Soledar, begun surrounding Russian forces in Bakhmut, and sent a large number of tanks towards the Russian border. The Russian Defense Ministry said these reports were false.

Zelensky said Ukraine’s counteroffensive had yet to start, even as his generals claimed some of their biggest battlefield successes in months:

Kyiv says it has pushed Russian forces back over the past several days near the eastern city of Bakhmut in local assaults, while a full-blown counteroffensive involving tens of thousands of troops and hundreds of Western tanks is still being prepared. “With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful. But we’d lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky also dismissed fears about losing US support if President Joe Biden is not reelected in 2024. “Who knows where we’ll be [when the election happens]? I believe we’ll win by then.”

Wagner Group founder Evgeny Prigozhin accused Russian Defense Ministry troops of abandoning their positions “without a fight.”

“The situation on the flanks is developing according to the worst predictions. The territories that our comrades gave their blood and their lives to win, gaining dozens or hundreds of meters daily, are today being lost without a fight by those who should be holding our flanks,” he said.

On Tuesday, Prigozhin said a Russian army brigade had abandoned a strategic bridgehead in the city.

Hours later, he released the “happy grandpa” video:

“There are people who fight, and there are people who learned at some point in their lives that they should have reserves — and they hoard, hoard, hoard these reserves. And instead of spending a shell, killing the enemy, saving the life of our soldier, they kill our soldiers. Meanwhile, the happy grandpa thinks he’s doing well. And what’s the country supposed to do next? If he turns out to be right, God bless everyone. But what should the country do, what should our children, our grandchildren, the future of Russia do, and how will we win this war, if suddenly—and I’m just speculating here—it turns out that this grandpa is a complete dickhead?”

The Kremlin is losing patience with Prigozhin’s outbursts:

Sources close to the Putin administration have told Meduza that Kremlin officials view Prigozhin’s statements about the Russian Defense Ministry as a “serious threat.” One source said that Prigozhin is currently acting “not as part of the same team and not out of the same interests” as the Russian authorities. “He has his own project, Bakhmut, and he’s currently doing everything for its sake. But that’s a personal project, aimed at giving him more influence over the Defense Ministry, so that Wagner becomes the main force behind the victory,” said the source.

Prigozhin’s statement about the “happy grandpa” was received even more negatively in the Kremlin, according to the source. “He can say later on, of course, that he was talking about [Defense Minister Sergey] Shoigu or some theoretical layman, but we know what conclusions people will draw,” he said. One source believes that Prigozhin was indeed talking about Putin, but another said that the statement can’t be considered a “direct attack” on the president.

Abrams tanks arrive in Germany ahead of schedule:

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee that the US had moved “a number of tanks over into theater” so the Ukrainians could begin training on them. By the time they complete the training, expected to last about ten weeks, the Abrams tanks currently being built for the Ukrainian forces will be ready, he said. The tank training will be the latest and most lethal new layer of combat instruction the US is providing Ukraine’s troops to give them the best chance to overwhelm and punch through Russia’s battle lines. Over the past few months US troops have trained more than 8,800 Ukrainians, including on how to use Stryker and Bradley fighting vehicles and M109 Paladins together on the battlefield. The Bradleys and Strykers are armored and armed vehicles used to ferry troops, and the Paladin is a self-propelled howitzer gun.

Western weapons, growing experience harden Ukrainian air defenses:

Ukraine’s air defenses have made great strides in the past 14 months, saving infrastructure and lives and preventing Russia from achieving air superiority—a critical step as Ukrainians prepare for a counteroffensive. The bolstered defenses have deterred Russian aircraft from going deep behind the front lines and “greatly shaped the course of the war.” … Since April 28, Russia has fired a total of 67 missiles and 114 drones at Ukraine, according to Ukrainian air force reports. Only seven missiles and 11 drones got through, and none hit Kyiv. Last week, Kyiv units reported they had shot down Russia’s most advanced hypersonic missile, a weapon that was previously considered unstoppable by Ukraine. A newly acquired American-made Patriot battery made it possible. …

With the arrival of new Western-made air defense systems in October and November, as well as the growing skill of the Ukrainian batteries, Ukraine reported intercepting some 80 percent of incoming Russian cruise missiles by December. Today, Granite said the figure is closer to 90 percent, and he said the defense systems around Kyiv have taken down 100 percent of missiles shot at the city since April 28. “Kyiv is protected,” he said.

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant faces staffing crunch:

Russia intends to relocate around 3,100 Ukrainian staff from Europe’s largest nuclear plant, Ukraine’s atomic energy company claimed Wednesday, warning of a potential “catastrophic lack of qualified personnel” at the Zaporizhzhia facility in Russia-occupied southern Ukraine. Workers who signed employment contracts with various affiliates of Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom following Moscow’s capture of the Zaporizhzhia plant early in the war are the bulk of those set to be taken to Russia along with their families, Energoatom said in a Telegram post. Energoatom didn’t specify whether the employees would be forcibly moved out of the plant.

China will send a special envoy to Ukraine, Russia, and other European nations from Monday, Beijing says. He will be the highest-ranking Chinese diplomat to visit Ukraine since Moscow’s full-scale invasion began.

Britain has supplied Ukraine with “Storm Shadow” long-range cruise missiles, having received assurances from the Ukrainian government that they will be used only within Ukrainian sovereign territory.

What Ukraine still needs to win: Specifically, the United States and its allies should help Kyiv fill its need for more armored fighting vehicles, air defense, long-range precision strike capabilities, and artillery ammunition.

Russia to build “migrant village” for conservative American expats. (In Russian.)

A village for Americans and Canadians wishing to immigrate to Russia will be built in the Moscow region, said Timur Beslangurov, a partner of Vista Immigration law firm … “In the Moscow region, the construction of a village for Americans and Canadians who want to move will begin in 2024. About 200 families want to emigrate for ideological reasons,” said the lawyer …

According to Beslangurov, tens of thousands of people —foreigners without Russian roots—would like to move to Russia. “The reason is the planting of radical values: today they have 70 sexes, it is not known what will happen next. Many normal people emigrate and are considering Russia, but they’re faced with huge bureaucratic problems with Russian migration law,” the lawyer explained. According to him, among those who want to move there are traditional Catholics who “have a very strong belief in the prophecy that Russia will remain the only Christian country in the world.”

Claire—these families are in for a hell of a grim surprise.

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