Global Eyes: "Go to hell, Tucker Carlson" edition
Everything you need to know to be a reasonably well-informed person.
I hope everyone had a relaxing and merry Christmas? Well, enough relaxing. Up and at ‘em. Time to get caught up on the news of the world.
Carlson has moved from advocating for Putin to endorsing Russia’s genocide in Ukraine. I don’t know why Murdoch is allowing this on his network, or why advertisers support it, but I will not appear on Fox News again while Carlson is there. … It’s like still backing the Nazis after Auschwitz was uncovered.—Garry Kasparov
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Overview: The Russian military’s advance in the Bakhmut area has probably slowed in recent days, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Russian forces are apt to struggle to maintain their offensive pace in the area. They may seek to initiate a tactical or operational pause owing to lack of personnel and munitions. The UK Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces are running out of the artillery munitions they need to support large-scale offensive operations. Sustaining operations along the whole of the Ukrainian frontline is forcing Russia to expend a significant number of shells and rockets daily. The Wagner Group’s reported heavy losses in the Bakhmut area in recent weeks have also probably strained Russian forces’ operational capabilities.
Will the battle for Bakhmut decide the war? Ukrainian forces have been successful in keeping Russia from capturing the town, causing heavy casualties among the Russian forces, particularly the Wagner Group:
Ukrainian snipers are turning the town into an urban nightmare for the Russian forces. Beyond the obvious physical danger to ground troops, snipers have a big psychological effect on an infantry unit, as it never knows if it is safe or not. The Russian forces are also suffering from the elements on the outskirts of Bakhmut. Moscow has sent thousands of mobilized reservists, underequipped and ill-supported, to the frontlines. The result is troves of Russian troops freezing to death.
Volodymyr Zelensky is unstoppable. Zelensky’s recent visit to Bakhmut was a major morale booster to the Ukrainian armed forces and a shock to the Kremlin.
Relatives, family, and friends report that 10,764 Ukrainian children have been deported by Russia without their parents. It’s hard to pick what aspect of this war is the most evil, but this is a candidate.
Russia’s infrastructure and services are crumbling. (In Russian.) Max translates Zverda, the local newspaper in Perm:
Rates for utilities in the housing and utilities sector have increased since December 1. At the same time, the cold weather has exacerbated the state of our communal infrastructure.1 Despite the regular increase in the cost of services, the number of accidents on networks is not decreasing.
Where do our payments go? Not a day goes by without news of an accident in the housing and utilities sector from one region or another in Russia. Novosibirsk—emergency disconnection of heat supply at a temperature of minus 15 degrees. Chelyabinsk, Kostroma—people are left without heating. In Volgograd and Voronezh—without light, in Kursk—without gas, in Saratov— without cold water. Over the past heating season, there were more than 7,300 accidents in the housing and utilities sector in the country, and, judging by the start of winter in 2022, there is no expectation of a decrease in statistics.
Three Russian servicemen were killed today after a Ukrainian drone was shot down as it approached a military airfield in Saratov Oblast, deep inside Russian territory.
We’ve been seeing rumors of a run on Russian banks. I’m dubious: That should be easy to confirm. But I note the rumor for what it’s worth:
[O]ver the last two weeks or so the ruble has fallen about 17 percent against US dollars (and I am sure worse than that in real life—I don’t buy those quotes, much worse than that on the black market I bet). It is an EXTREMELY violent move in a currency. Something is going on for sure. The thing I’d remember about this is that when the war started there was a hell of a fall in rubles and a bank run—dropped more than 60 percent. Putin moved very aggressively to stabilize it. He basically had to take interest rates up to 20 percent (from 9.5) like overnight. And still had to put in big brakes on the currency flows (so there has to be some kind of withdrawal restrictions to make that work, I think). Pretty radical currency manipulation. No one will fucking trust him with their money after that. Really — who in their right fucking mind would trade with him in that currency?????? So if there is a run on the banks again, what the fuck can he possibly do now???? He is basically saying you can’t have your money—if this is correct. It is like he already stole half their money and now he is trying to steal the rest. If I was Russian I would see it that way.
… 65-year-old Antov fell from the third floor of the Sai International Hotel on December 25. A few days earlier, on December 22, Antov’s friend Vladimir Bydanov, a 61-year-old businessman from Yoshkar-Ola, became ill in his room “due to excessive amounts of alcohol” and died in the hospital. Both were in India on vacation. The police called Antov’s death a suicide.
Ukraine takes two steps forward, one step back in anti-corruption fight. Zelensky is adamant that his country’s future is in the EU, but under pressure over Constitutional Court reforms:
Ukraine is now moving surprisingly quickly. The appointment of a new chief prosecutor has given the fight against graft a boost with many high-profile cases finally resulting in sentences. The Ukrainian parliament also liquidated the Kyiv Administrative District Court, infamous as the most corrupt court in Ukraine.
On the downside, however, concern is now growing over the Constitutional Court, with its supreme legal oversight that can overrule government decisions. A new reform threatens to allow political interference in a body that would filter candidates for judges. This could throw a major hurdle in the path of Ukraine’s European aspirations. Both the European Commission and the Venice Commission, a Council of Europe advisory body on constitutional law, have already sounded the alarm.
Will there be a special tribunal for Putin? Ukraine wants to see Russian President Vladimir Putin dragged before a special tribunal for his invasion. Thus far, many countries in the West have been skeptical of such a move, but recently, resistance has been softening.
A free world, if you can keep it. Ukraine and American interests:
Some critics complain that Americans have not seriously debated and discussed their policies toward either Ukraine or Taiwan, that panic and outrage have drowned out dissenting voices. The critics are right. Americans should have a frank and open debate about what role they want the United States to play in the world.
The first step, however, is to recognize the stakes. The natural trajectory of history in the absence of American leadership has been perfectly apparent: it has not been toward a liberal peace, a stable balance of power, or the development of international laws and institutions. Instead, it leads to the spread of dictatorship and continual great-power conflict. That is where the world was heading in 1917 and 1941. Should the United States reduce its involvement in the world today, the consequences for Europe and Asia are not hard to predict. Great-power conflict and dictatorship have been the norm throughout human history, the liberal peace a brief aberration. Only American power can keep the natural forces of history at bay.
Putin’s useful idiots: Right wingers lose it over Zelensky visit. The anti-Ukraine right can’t stand America standing as the arsenal of democracy.
🧵 A thread by Garry Kasparov (with which I fully agree):
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