I saw this Tweet on X. It just about says everything that needs to be said.
“A few thoughts for the day. 1) Israel’s actions this week have set Hezbollah and Iran reeling. The blow that the “Resistance Axis” received was potentially a game changer.
2) However, Israel cannot rely on Washington to perform its traditional great power role of translating Israel’s military achievements into lasting strategic benefits.
The U.S. is currently leaderless. President Biden is a lame duck and VP Kamala Harris is a nonentity in foreign policy. There is no possibility that the U.S. can seize the opportunity that Israel has created. The “ideas,” if we can call them that, in the White House about how to stabilize the Middle East are robotic and insipid. They undermine Israel and strengthen Iran.
3) Israel must therefore capitalize on the moment all by itself. But doing so will be tricky. Two steps are key. First, do not let up on the military pressure. Hezbollah is weakened. Do not let it recover. Keep Nasrallah off balance.
The emphasis should be on high impact attacks with the lowest possible signature, attacks which hit Hezbollah’s leadership where it hurts most. Do not risk getting into a major ground operation, but reject the demand to “deescalate,” a demand predicted on the absurd notion that Israel’s self defense is the cause of the war. The cause of the war, it cannot be said often enough, is Iran’s regional aggression.
4) Israel should begin expressing publicly some reasonable peace terms. This process should start with a very simple demand: the full, immediate, verified and unconditional implementation by Hezbollah of UN resolution 1701, which calls for demilitarization of Lebanon south of the Litani River.
This was the agreement — accepted through intermediaries by Hezbollah in 2006 — for the ending of the Second Lebanon War. Hezbollah (together with the UN and Lebanese military) never adhered to 1701. It’s now Israel’s job to make this noncompliance broadly understood.
Israel should make clear that if the international community will not implement 1701, then Israel will have no choice but to do so unilaterally, at a time and in a manner of its choosing.
The goal here is not primarily to force Hezbollah to explain why it rejects a UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but to force Washington and the Europeans to try to explain their supine Iran policies. Why aren’t their policies based on demanding from Hezbollah the immediate and unconditional implementation of 1701?
In other words, it’s time for Israel to prompt America to decouple its feckless Gaza diplomacy from its feckless Lebanon diplomacy. The linkage that Washington has drawn between the two plays into Iran’s hands. It encourages the world to believe that it is Israel rather than Iran that is setting the Middle East ablaze.”
Re: France forming a new government: "I’d forgotten we didn’t have one; things have been fine without it." - Exactly! Whenever someone laments "who's running the country?!" I reply: why does someone need to? (Foreign policy excepted, obv.) The country is doing fine running itself!
"Limited government" being a hopeless ideal now, I welcome gridlock. At least they can't do any more damage while they're fighting each other!
The pager bombing was brilliant - one of those things that reminds me why I admire the one US ally that's all-in on self-sufficiency and looking out for its own survival, come fair weather or foul.
The behaviour of the Philippines - well, that leaves a lot less room for optimism. The same with Japan, and Taiwan, and Korea - they've all neglected their militaries, became too dependent on US security guarantees (some formal, some informal, some purposefully ambigous) which may or may not be enough when push comes to shove (see: Ukraine).
“My father gets cross with me if I swear in this newsletter, so I won’t.” (Claire Berlinski).
I’m glad you’re listening to your father; he’s right. Resorting to swearing would just make you look small.
As for the war between Hezbollah and Israel, it’s almost certain that if cackling Kamala is elected, she will be even less supportive of Israel than Biden has been. She’s firmly entrenched in the Obama wing of the Democratic Party which is openly hostile to Israel and surreptitiously supportive of Iran. A President Harris would almost surely be aggressively pressuring Israel to attack Hezbollah with far less vigor than it currently is.
Like Obama, Harris believes that the peaceful future of the Middle East depends on Iran and its allies balancing the military power of Israel.
The logical outcome of this view is that Hezbollah’s destruction would enhance Israeli dominance in the Middle East which is exactly the opposite of what Democrat politicians like Obama and Harris desire.
Voting for Harris is the functional equivalent of voting to save Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis even if that’s not the intention of citizens who cast their ballots for Harris.
Given the possibility that Harris might be elected, it is more important than ever that Prime Minister Netanyahu remain in office. It’s a simple reality that Democrat Presidents have been wrong about almost every foreign policy issue for the past several decades (most GOP Presidents have been almost equally clueless).
Netanyahu has made a habit of standing up to the stupidity of American Presidents. Truth be told, he seems to enjoy it. Israel would be dramatically worse off today had it followed the advice (or dictates) of the Americans. Any of the credible alternatives to Netanyahu, especially Lapid, and Gantz (and perhaps Bennett who is currently out of the Knesset) would be far less likely to challenge a President Harris. They naively believe that acquiescing to American pressure and maintaining the good will of the American President is critically important.
They’ve got it backwards. Given the reality that the United States is almost always wrong when it comes to military matters and foreign affairs, having the chutzpah to tell an American President where to stick it is the single most important asset that an Israeli Prime Minister can have.
SPD was the only party of those able to vote who said NO in 1933 (Ermächtigungsgesetz)
To watch its steady decline is 😥
SPD's candidate in Brandenburg has very high approval ratings, but Thuringia also liked its "Boss* of many years very much and considered him competent but still crushed his party in the election
I suspect the SPD will still remain in some form but they will have to consider a more formal alliance with the Greens. I still don't think anyone can accurately predict the future of Friedrich Merz's Trump light strategy especially if Harris wins.
Something I have noticed especially after Harris replaced Biden is a certain dismay towards both US Presidential candidates by many "mainstream" European and Canadian traditionally pro American centre right voters and commentators. While they might intensely dislike Trump they really don't like Harris either and I almost wonder among the older generation that defended America rhetorically during the Cold War that there is not some sense of betrayal towards the United States and its polity for doing what it is doing right now. On social media for example I noticed far more criticism of AOC's statements on Israel and Hezbollah coming from Europe than I did from the US. Among my social circle I noticed a bit of fear among German and Canadian conservatives who again dislike Trump but also fear a Harris victory might muck up the chance of German/Canadian conservatives winning there respective elections next year even though the current German and Canadian left wing govts are deeply unpopular in the polls.
Anyways I linked to an article by Garvan Walshe(David Cameron's former foreign policy advisor) in the chat after the US debate that I think reflects this real sense of unease towards US politics by Atlanticist Euro/Canadian center right politicians that did not exist in 2016 and 2020. Also while the mechanics of immigration are different in the US, Canada, and German there are enough similarities that a Harris victory I do think will be seen as a vote for more open borders which is also deeply depressing to Canadian, German, and British conservatives. Mainstream Euro-Canadian pro American conservatism in my opinion is going to get squeezed between Kamala Harris and the pro Russian anti Americanism of Victor Orban.
One useful bit of information has been vouchsafed to us by recent events: The absolute moral idiocy of the Western “anti-Zionist” Left is now on full display. What could be more nauseating than AOC’s weepy laments about Israel’s violation of “international humanitarian law” with its pager/radio strikes against the defenseless employees of Hezbollah? This happened to make he think of the opening segment of the movie “Patton.” George C. Scott’s bravura performance in that scene was not fictional. The original version of Patton’s address to his troops on the eve of D-Day can be read in the Library of America’s second volume of “American Speeches.” In a way, it meets the present moment. Here’s the film version:
I saw this Tweet on X. It just about says everything that needs to be said.
“A few thoughts for the day. 1) Israel’s actions this week have set Hezbollah and Iran reeling. The blow that the “Resistance Axis” received was potentially a game changer.
2) However, Israel cannot rely on Washington to perform its traditional great power role of translating Israel’s military achievements into lasting strategic benefits.
The U.S. is currently leaderless. President Biden is a lame duck and VP Kamala Harris is a nonentity in foreign policy. There is no possibility that the U.S. can seize the opportunity that Israel has created. The “ideas,” if we can call them that, in the White House about how to stabilize the Middle East are robotic and insipid. They undermine Israel and strengthen Iran.
3) Israel must therefore capitalize on the moment all by itself. But doing so will be tricky. Two steps are key. First, do not let up on the military pressure. Hezbollah is weakened. Do not let it recover. Keep Nasrallah off balance.
The emphasis should be on high impact attacks with the lowest possible signature, attacks which hit Hezbollah’s leadership where it hurts most. Do not risk getting into a major ground operation, but reject the demand to “deescalate,” a demand predicted on the absurd notion that Israel’s self defense is the cause of the war. The cause of the war, it cannot be said often enough, is Iran’s regional aggression.
4) Israel should begin expressing publicly some reasonable peace terms. This process should start with a very simple demand: the full, immediate, verified and unconditional implementation by Hezbollah of UN resolution 1701, which calls for demilitarization of Lebanon south of the Litani River.
This was the agreement — accepted through intermediaries by Hezbollah in 2006 — for the ending of the Second Lebanon War. Hezbollah (together with the UN and Lebanese military) never adhered to 1701. It’s now Israel’s job to make this noncompliance broadly understood.
Israel should make clear that if the international community will not implement 1701, then Israel will have no choice but to do so unilaterally, at a time and in a manner of its choosing.
The goal here is not primarily to force Hezbollah to explain why it rejects a UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but to force Washington and the Europeans to try to explain their supine Iran policies. Why aren’t their policies based on demanding from Hezbollah the immediate and unconditional implementation of 1701?
In other words, it’s time for Israel to prompt America to decouple its feckless Gaza diplomacy from its feckless Lebanon diplomacy. The linkage that Washington has drawn between the two plays into Iran’s hands. It encourages the world to believe that it is Israel rather than Iran that is setting the Middle East ablaze.”
Re: France forming a new government: "I’d forgotten we didn’t have one; things have been fine without it." - Exactly! Whenever someone laments "who's running the country?!" I reply: why does someone need to? (Foreign policy excepted, obv.) The country is doing fine running itself!
"Limited government" being a hopeless ideal now, I welcome gridlock. At least they can't do any more damage while they're fighting each other!
The pager bombing was brilliant - one of those things that reminds me why I admire the one US ally that's all-in on self-sufficiency and looking out for its own survival, come fair weather or foul.
The behaviour of the Philippines - well, that leaves a lot less room for optimism. The same with Japan, and Taiwan, and Korea - they've all neglected their militaries, became too dependent on US security guarantees (some formal, some informal, some purposefully ambigous) which may or may not be enough when push comes to shove (see: Ukraine).
That sort of uncerteinty makes the world dangerous. It's a theme I've written about on my own substack: https://twilightpatriot.substack.com/p/the-poland-paradox
“My father gets cross with me if I swear in this newsletter, so I won’t.” (Claire Berlinski).
I’m glad you’re listening to your father; he’s right. Resorting to swearing would just make you look small.
As for the war between Hezbollah and Israel, it’s almost certain that if cackling Kamala is elected, she will be even less supportive of Israel than Biden has been. She’s firmly entrenched in the Obama wing of the Democratic Party which is openly hostile to Israel and surreptitiously supportive of Iran. A President Harris would almost surely be aggressively pressuring Israel to attack Hezbollah with far less vigor than it currently is.
Like Obama, Harris believes that the peaceful future of the Middle East depends on Iran and its allies balancing the military power of Israel.
The logical outcome of this view is that Hezbollah’s destruction would enhance Israeli dominance in the Middle East which is exactly the opposite of what Democrat politicians like Obama and Harris desire.
Voting for Harris is the functional equivalent of voting to save Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis even if that’s not the intention of citizens who cast their ballots for Harris.
Given the possibility that Harris might be elected, it is more important than ever that Prime Minister Netanyahu remain in office. It’s a simple reality that Democrat Presidents have been wrong about almost every foreign policy issue for the past several decades (most GOP Presidents have been almost equally clueless).
Netanyahu has made a habit of standing up to the stupidity of American Presidents. Truth be told, he seems to enjoy it. Israel would be dramatically worse off today had it followed the advice (or dictates) of the Americans. Any of the credible alternatives to Netanyahu, especially Lapid, and Gantz (and perhaps Bennett who is currently out of the Knesset) would be far less likely to challenge a President Harris. They naively believe that acquiescing to American pressure and maintaining the good will of the American President is critically important.
They’ve got it backwards. Given the reality that the United States is almost always wrong when it comes to military matters and foreign affairs, having the chutzpah to tell an American President where to stick it is the single most important asset that an Israeli Prime Minister can have.
SPD was the only party of those able to vote who said NO in 1933 (Ermächtigungsgesetz)
To watch its steady decline is 😥
SPD's candidate in Brandenburg has very high approval ratings, but Thuringia also liked its "Boss* of many years very much and considered him competent but still crushed his party in the election
🤷❓🤷
I suspect the SPD will still remain in some form but they will have to consider a more formal alliance with the Greens. I still don't think anyone can accurately predict the future of Friedrich Merz's Trump light strategy especially if Harris wins.
I see only further decline if the SPD allies closer w the Greens - my impression is the Greens have botched their image 😥 brillantly😥
Something I have noticed especially after Harris replaced Biden is a certain dismay towards both US Presidential candidates by many "mainstream" European and Canadian traditionally pro American centre right voters and commentators. While they might intensely dislike Trump they really don't like Harris either and I almost wonder among the older generation that defended America rhetorically during the Cold War that there is not some sense of betrayal towards the United States and its polity for doing what it is doing right now. On social media for example I noticed far more criticism of AOC's statements on Israel and Hezbollah coming from Europe than I did from the US. Among my social circle I noticed a bit of fear among German and Canadian conservatives who again dislike Trump but also fear a Harris victory might muck up the chance of German/Canadian conservatives winning there respective elections next year even though the current German and Canadian left wing govts are deeply unpopular in the polls.
Anyways I linked to an article by Garvan Walshe(David Cameron's former foreign policy advisor) in the chat after the US debate that I think reflects this real sense of unease towards US politics by Atlanticist Euro/Canadian center right politicians that did not exist in 2016 and 2020. Also while the mechanics of immigration are different in the US, Canada, and German there are enough similarities that a Harris victory I do think will be seen as a vote for more open borders which is also deeply depressing to Canadian, German, and British conservatives. Mainstream Euro-Canadian pro American conservatism in my opinion is going to get squeezed between Kamala Harris and the pro Russian anti Americanism of Victor Orban.
AbIk Piräus, Athen:s harbour, is securely in Chinese hands.
One useful bit of information has been vouchsafed to us by recent events: The absolute moral idiocy of the Western “anti-Zionist” Left is now on full display. What could be more nauseating than AOC’s weepy laments about Israel’s violation of “international humanitarian law” with its pager/radio strikes against the defenseless employees of Hezbollah? This happened to make he think of the opening segment of the movie “Patton.” George C. Scott’s bravura performance in that scene was not fictional. The original version of Patton’s address to his troops on the eve of D-Day can be read in the Library of America’s second volume of “American Speeches.” In a way, it meets the present moment. Here’s the film version:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PS5yfhPGaWE
I wrote this after the attack on the Bataclan:
https://ricochet.com/296115/american-tourists-never-surrender-visit-france/
You'll appreciate it, I trust.