GLOBAL EYES

I can barely keep up

I’ve been trying to send you an edition of Global Eyes for three full work days, but at the end of every day, I’ve realized with dismay that it’s still not done, and gone to bed thinking I would just have to finish it in the morning. Then I’ve woken up to see that half of what I’d included the day before had already been overtaken by events. The pace of the news now defies my ability to keep up with it.

I’d like to be able to assure you, as I do customarily, that if you read this newsletter from start to finish, you’ll know everything you need to know to be a reasonably well-informed person.¹ But to be honest, I have to warn you that some of this may already be out of date. It will still be pretty useful, I think, and if I aim for perfection, I fear you’ll never receive this.

“We do not live in war, but we do not live in peace either. We are living in a great zone, a great zone between war and peace.” —Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans

EUROPE-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-UNITED STATES

I'm putting these categories together today because so many of these items overlap. I've put US items that are strictly related to North America below.

• US to “immediately” resume security assistance, intelligence sharing to Ukraine

• Ukraine agrees to 30-day ceasefire if Russia abides by it

• Putin adviser says ceasefire gives nothing to Russia, would only help Ukraine

• Putin aide rejects plan for Ukraine ceasefire. Moscow says it is close to ousting Kyiv’s forces from Russia’s Kursk region.

Putin urges army to “liberate” Kursk as Ukraine pulls back. In his first visit to the region since Ukraine launched its counter-offensive in August, Putin, dressed in army camouflage, hailed recent gains and urged his troops on.

… Russia’s forces have retaken 24 settlements in the border region over the last five days, chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov told Putin. Minutes after footage of Putin’s remarks aired on Russian state TV, Ukraine’s army commander suggested his troops were pulling back to minimize losses. “In the most difficult situation, my priority has been and remains saving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. To this end, the units of the defense forces, if necessary, maneuver to more favorable positions,” commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said …

Ukraine and its allies say more than 10,000 North Korean troops are fighting for Russia in Kursk. Gerasimov said Russia had captured 430 Ukrainian soldiers in the region, while Syrsky said 942 Russians had been taken as prisoners of war. Putin said the captured Ukrainian fighters should be “treated as terrorists, in accordance with the laws of the Russian Federation,” suggesting they could face trials in Russian courts and be jailed for decades. Russia has already put several captured Ukrainian fighters on trial for “terrorism.” The Geneva Convention prohibits putting captured fighters on trial for their involvement in armed hostilities. … The Russian success on the battlefield comes as the United States says it wants Russia to agree “unconditionally” to a complete 30-day ceasefire—a plan Kyiv has endorsed [Kyiv endorsed it under duress. Russia’s battlefield successes are direct consequence of us cutting off Ukraine’s arms and intelligence.]. Ukraine had hoped to use its hold on the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in peace talks with Moscow.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism Wednesday that US negotiators headed to Moscow could secure a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, with officials saying the United States wants Russia to agree to an unconditional halt to hostilities. [Good luck!] The Kremlin said it was awaiting details of a US-Ukrainian proposal agreed this week, and gave no indication of its readiness to stop fighting that has left tens of thousands dead in the past three years.

★ Document prepared for Kremlin outlines hard-line negotiating stance. The document, written in February by a Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service, lays out Russia’s maximalist demands:

Russia should work to weaken the US negotiating position on Ukraine by stoking tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while pushing ahead with Moscow’s efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state, according to a document prepared for the Kremlin. The document, written in February by an influential Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), lays out Russia’s maximalist demands for any end to the conflict in Ukraine. It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as “impossible to realize” and says that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026.”

The document also rejects any plan to dispatch peacekeepers to Ukraine, as some in Europe have proposed, and insists on recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the Ukrainian territories it has seized. It also calls for a further carve-up through the creation of a buffer zone in Ukraine’s northeast on the border with Russian regions such as Bryansk and Belgorod, as well as a demilitarized zone in southern Ukraine near Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. The latter would affect the Odessa region. In addition, the document discusses the need for “the complete dismantling” of the current Ukrainian government.

The document also dismisses any potential political concessions by Ukraine—such as Kyiv’s rejection of NATO membership and the holding of elections in which pro-Russian parties would be allowed to participate—as not being far-reaching enough. “In reality, the current Kyiv regime cannot be changed from inside the country. Its complete dismantling is needed.”

The document, which was obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post, highlights the challenges still facing Trump in reaching any agreement with Russia for a peace deal, now that Kyiv has endorsed Washington’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, appearing to bridge a divide between the two countries. While Russia has yet to signal that it would sign up for any ceasefire, analysts warned that Moscow still has a multitude of ways it could drag out agreeing to even a temporary pause in hostilities. The road to any long-term peace agreement remains treacherous, they said.