Global Eyes
Notes from around the world
Ukraine
There are numerous reports of Russian filtration camps for forcefully relocated Ukrainian civilians to be settled in distant regions of the Russian Federation. One of such camps is already operating in Dokuchaevsk of the Donetsk region. Russian Federal Security agents interrogate the prisoners if they have relatives serving in the Ukrainian army or police.
Russian forces appear to be concentrating their effort to attempt the encirclement of Ukrainian forces directly facing the separatist regions in the east of the country, advancing from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south.
The battlefield across northern Ukraine remains largely static with local Ukrainian counterattacks hampering Russian attempts to reorganize their forces.
ISW:
Russian forces have not abandoned their objective to encircle and capture Kyiv, despite Kremlin claims that Russian forces will concentrate on eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations to retake further territory northwest of Kyiv in the coming days.
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks toward Brovary and did not conduct offensive operations toward Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Russian operations in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 1st Guards Tank Army fully withdrew from Ukrainian territory near Sumy back to Russia for possible redeployment—the first Ukrainian report of a Russian unit fully withdrawing into Russia for redeployment to another axis of advance in this conflict.
Russian forces continued to steadily take territory in Mariupol.
Ukrainian resistance around Kherson continues to tie down Russian forces in the area. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern direction.
News and notes from Ukraine, Russia, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the Americas below the jump.
Ukraine offers to adopt neutral status in exchange for Russian ceasefire. Ukraine also proposed a 15-year consultation period on the future of Crimea.
In German: “The Russians apparently didn’t even know why they were here.” Looted shops, broken buildings and Russian soldiers who asked residents about the situation: SPIEGEL reporter Christoph Reuter reached Trostyanets Plaza shortly after the Ukrainian reconquest.
It’s really maddening when Westerners speak about a “negotiated” solution to the Ukraine war. Let me translate that lingo into plain English for you. The subject of the “negotiation” they speak of is how much of Russia’s conquest Ukraine should have to accept. … To the extent you engage in this rhetoric you are taking a meat axe to the UN Charter and you should be honest about what you’re doing.
When you accept the rhetoric that the “sides” should “negotiate” a “solution,” what you’re really saying is that the charter can go f*ck itself when the threat of escalation scares you too much. That’s fine if that’s what you believe. But don’t expect us to take your bromides about the “rules based international order” terribly seriously if that’s where you fall on when it counts.
Ukrainian sources claim the commander and chief of staff of the Russian 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment has been killed:
Russia
Christo Grozev, an investigator for Bellingcat, says in an interview that according to recent flight data, Russia’s defense minister (the missing Shoigu) and other senior officials, possibly including Putin, are in nuclear bunkers near Ufa in the Ural mountains. The British tabloids concur.
How we got here with Russia: The Kremlin’s worldview:
The Kremlin’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, including its illegal occupation of Crimea in 2014 and its intervention in Syria in 2015, came unexpectedly to many in the West. These events were nonetheless mere extensions of the worldview held by Russian President Vladimir Putin. This worldview was built on more than two decades of compounded dissatisfaction with the West as well as Putin’s cumulative experiences in his ongoing global campaigns to achieve his core objectives: the preservation of his regime, the end of American hegemony, and the reinstatement of Russia as a global power . Some of these ambitions were tamed, and others expedited, by external events, yet their core has remained the same and often at odds with the West. The US believed that a brief period of non-assertive foreign policy from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s had become the new norm for Russia. This period was not the norm but an anomaly. Putin’s foreign policy has always been assertive, similar to Russia’s historic foreign policy . The US may thus find itself once again surprised by Putin.
By Eliot Cohen: Ukraine is winning. Don’t let up now:
The West will have to rearm, because for the foreseeable future it will face a hostile Eurasian bloc. To warn, as some do, that we risk throwing Russia into China’s embrace is foolish. They have already been caught in flagrante delicto, and the only long-term remedy is to convince China that it is unproductive to be locked in the embrace of a decrepit, incontinent, and failing partner.
The immediate tasks are clear: to arm and support Ukraine on the greatest possible scale and with the highest sense of urgency. That is not a matter of billions of dollars but tens of billions; not just of picking through weapons stockpiles but of authorizing emergency production of more. It certainly involves providing any weapon, including aircraft and tanks, that the sophisticated Ukrainian military can use. The notion that such weapons are offensive, as opposed to the defensive ones supplied thus far, is fatuous. French tanks in 1940 served a defensive purpose, and German anti-tank guns in that year an offensive one.
Russia’s defense ministry says it plans to “drastically reduce combat operations” around Kyiv.
Moscow expels 10 diplomats from Baltic states.
By Timothy Snyder: The Kremlin’s formula for failure. How a war of destruction could pit a tiny elite against itself.
Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian peace negotiators suffer suspected poisoning. (Paywalled)
Bellingcat confirms that three members of the delegation, who attended the talks on the night of March 3, experienced symptoms consistent with chemical weapons poisoning. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich. Their symptoms included eye and skin inflammation and “piercing” eye pain, which didn’t abate until morning. The negotiators drove the next day from Kyiv to Lviv, where they were examined by chemical weapons specialists. The experts concluded the symptoms were “probably the result of poisoning,” with symptoms “most consistent with variants of porphyrin, organophosphates, or bicyclic substances.”
Novaya Gazeta suspends publication. The newspaper, whose editor won last year’s Nobel Peace Prize, is suspending its activities until the end of Russia’ “special operation” in Ukraine. Six of the paper’s journalists have been murdered.
Russia sends neo-Nazis to kill Zelensky and “denazify” Ukraine:
Putin reportedly dispatched over 400 operatives of its paramilitary proxy the Wagner group—which is replete with neo-Nazi members and traditions—to murder Ukraine’s Jewish President Volodymyr Zelensky. …
One Wagner veteran told New Lines Magazine that neo-Nazis and far-right extremists comprised the core of the group, although obviously not all its recruits are neo-Nazis. Buildings in Libya occupied by Wagner were vandalised with Nazi slogans and symbols, while a tablet belonging to a Wagner operative revealed only two books related to politics: Mein Kampf and The International Jew. Investigations of the identity of Wagner fighters continuously turn up various strains of White Supremacy, Nazism and antisemitism. …
… From Denmark’s National Front to The Base, Russia provides training and safe haven for as many extremist groups as it can. On top of safe haven and training, the Kremlin funds and allies with far-right and neo-Nazi political parties across Europe and the world, which grants the Kremlin not only destabilizing political influence, but also the potential for state-backed neo-Nazi terrorism as a weapon against the West.
Europe
Germany considers purchase of missile defense system. “‘This is certainly one of the issues we are discussing, and for good reason,’” he said when asked whether Germany might buy a system such as Israel’s Iron Dome.
Talks in Turkey are said to be “yielding progress.” We’ll believe it when we see it.
Belarusians continue to sabotage the Russian war effort.1
Zelensky assesses his partners in Europe: (Paywalled)
Asia
Pakistan managed to convince China to rollover its debt. Facing a severe economic crisis, Pakistan has to its great relief persuaded Beijing to roll over US$ 4.2 billion in debt.
Myanmar will “annihilate” coup opponents. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing rejected any talks with the “terrorist” opposition:
Tatmadaw2 will no longer take into account negotiation with the terrorist group and their supporters for killing innocent people … and will annihilate them into an end.
Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and India’s US$2.5 billion line of credit:
Sri Lanka faces its worst economic crisis in decades. The Mahinda Rajapaksa government is struggling to pay for essential imports after a 70 percent drop in foreign exchange reserves over two years triggered a currency devaluation. Fuel is in short supply, prices of food and essential goods have increased, and protests have broken out as the government preps for talks with the International Monetary Fund.
Russia conducted massive military drills on disputed islands near Japan days after Moscow announced the suspension of peace talks with Tokyo. (Russia pulled out of the talks because of Tokyo’s sanctions.)
Australians feeling effects of the war in Ukraine on their cost of living.
As Duterte fades, Philippines come back to US:
As the Filipino populist enters his twilight months in office, Philippine-US military cooperation seems stronger than ever while Duterte’s years-long strategic flirtation with both Russia and China has produced more disappointment than concrete achievements.
In the coming days, the Philippines and US are set to conduct their largest “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) joint military drills in recent memory. Close to 9,000 troops from both the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the US military are set to conduct war games from March 28 to April 8 in the northern island of Luzon, the seat of power and economic hub of the Philippines.
Where are India’s missing millionaires?
Middle East
From the former editor of Al Arabiya English: “America is failing the region and siding with Iran while dismantling the last 70 years of regional order.”
Sold disingenuously to the American public as an arms control agreement, the [Iran] deal is an assault on the regional order that the United States established in the aftermath of World War II. Explicitly hostile to Saudi Arabia, to say nothing of America’s other greatest ally in the region, Israel, the deal replaces the former American-led regional security structure with a concert system in which Iran, backed by Russia and China, becomes America’s new subcontractor while America’s former allies—the Gulf States and Israel—are demoted to second-tier status. …
Instead of friendship, America seems more inclined to use its old friends as human shields for Iran. Earlier this month, when Iran conducted a ballistic missile strike near the US consulate in Erbil, Iraq, it falsely claimed to be targeting an Israeli facility. A senior Biden official then confirmed the Iranian claim. While other officials later denied it, the damage was done. An American official had assisted Iran in getting the most out of its propaganda by action.
For Arab states in the region, and especially for Saudi Arabia, this weird spectacle was an edifying one. If the Americans won’t side with Israel against Iran, what’s the chance they will side with us?
Remarkable events in the Middle East: The Abraham Accord nations and Egypt announced a regional security bloc to thwart Iran and the Iranian nuclear deal. This is awkward for visiting Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
As the ministers gathered in Israel’s Negev on Sunday, two Israeli Arab gunmen launched a terrorist attack in the northern Israeli city of Hadera, killing two policemen and wounding six. Counter-terrorism officers shot the terrorists dead. The Islamic State group claimed credit for the attack.
An interesting analysis: A tale of two Negev Summits. The Negev Summit was at once a spectacular success and one of the most flagrant displays of Israeli diplomatic incompetence in history.
Athens and Cairo discuss energy links, possible LNG supply. During talks in Cairo, the Greek and Egyptian foreign ministers discussed connecting the two countries’ electricity networks by submarine power cable and Egypt supplying Greece with liquefied natural gas from Alexandria. Should this come to pass, it would boost Greece’s energy security in a period of utter mayhem. Also on the agenda in these talks:
… deepening strategic relations and cooperation on the basis of international law and the Law of the Sea, the war in Ukraine, energy and food security, and developments in the Eastern Mediterranean, in Libya and in the broader region.
Israel-Turkey gas pipeline: This, too, is being discussed behind the scenes as a European alternatives to Russian energy supplies.
Displaced Syrians in Idlib hold classes in Roman ruins.
A Roman archaeological site dating to the 16th century AD in the Deir Hassan area north of Idlib has been made into an educational center … The site, the remains of an ancient fortress, a church and castle, is located in the midst of nearly 600 refugee camps housing hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians.
Iranian Kurds detained after Norouz celebrations.
The security agencies of the Islamic Republic of Iran have summoned and interrogated dozens [of Kurds] and warned them against holding Newroz celebrations in public.
The Intelligence Organisation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Ministry of Intelligence, and the Defence and Intelligence Organisation of the Law Enforcement Forces summoned many in Kamyaran, Marivan, Sanandaj, Saqqez, Bukan, Piranshahr, Rabat, Baneh, Oshnavieh, Orumiyeh, Khoy, Maku, and Salmas.
Reportedly, the security agencies made any public Newroz celebration conditional upon obtaining official permission from the governorates and hoisting the flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the ceremonies.
The lifestyle Of Iran’s Shiite Clerics: Beard, turban, and rank
According to Hojjat ul-Eslam Mehdi Parnian, the length of a cleric’s beard and the size of his turban have nothing to do with his title or rank. However, observation at seminaries indicate that the higher the rank of a cleric, the longer is his beard and the bigger his turban. Nonetheless, long beard and big turban are not necessarily a sign of a great scholar.
Gulf states hold Yemen talks despite boycott by the Houthis.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said on Twitter that Saudis should expect an operation “deep” in the Kingdom.
Americas
Why Indian startup founders are flocking to Chile. Some entrepreneurs from India see Chile as a launchpad into the US market, but many are just as happy to stay in Latin America.
Bolsonaro admitted to hospital after feeling “unwell.”
Bolsonaro sacks Petrobras chief. The Brazilian Government Monday decided to sack Retired General Joaquim Silva e Luna as Petrobras CEO and appoint Economist Adriano Pires instead, after the price of fuel kept soaring, thus affecting President Jair Bolsonaro's chances of reelection.
Central America and Caribbean Food Security Outlook, February to September 2022.
Chile extends agriculture emergency three months because of lack of rain.
Haiti’s “Descent Into Hell.” Doctors strike over surge in kidnappings.
UN agencies warn of “unabated” rise in hunger in Haiti.
Gunmen kill 20 in Michoacan state. Several others were wounded in a mass shooting in central Mexico.
Cartel war rocks Mexico's Baroque jewel Zacatecas:
Since 2020, the two cartels have been fighting over Palmas Altas and Zacatecas —whose main city is a colonial center known for its Baroque-style architecture —with the state’s drug trafficking routes towards the United States, as well as ports on the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts.
Mexico’s 43 missing students: Experts slam ‘falsified’ inquiry. Government investigations into the 2014 disappearances have been repeatedly criticized as rushed and unreliable.
The race to build Mexico’s quickest delivery app. Customers like faster deliveries, but it’s the startups’ VC backers that have a need for speed.
El Salvador grabs 1,000 gang suspects in response to weekend killings.
White House records turned over to House show seven-hour gap in Trump phone log on January 6. The gas-rich country’s notoriously corrupt former president is back in the news following an attempted coup in January.
War turns Argentina’s shale boom dream into gas-buying nightmare. Despite huge shale-gas deposits, Argentina is competing for shipments of liquefied natural gas—its timing could scarcely be worse, as prices have skyrocketed.
Global
Twenty million excess deaths worldwide since the pandemic began.
By the Cosmopolitan Globalists
Robert Zubrin: Biden had it right the first time.
Desk Russie: Russian news deciphered for you. A great resource from Nicolas Tenzer and his colleagues.
Your stern scolding from the CCP
Washington should not dump “Cold War garbage” in the Pacific Ocean
The US and the Philippines kicked off their 12-day “shoulder-to-shoulder” joint exercises across the Luzon island on Monday, involving nearly 9,000 troops. This year’s exercise is “one of the largest-ever iterations,” the US Embassy in the Philippines said in a news release. In this regard, the US side is particularly excited. Maj. Gen. Jay Bargeron, 3rd Marine Division Commanding General, said the drills will “strengthen our response capabilities and readiness for real-world challenges.” Western media said the exercises will “show off the two countries” strong defense ties in the face of growing Chinese assertiveness” …
…. Since Ukraine crisis broke out, there are some voices of reflection in the Philippines. They argue that the country needs to avoid the fate of Ukraine, reject Washington’s warmongering, and avoid at all costs becoming a “proxy” or a pawn of any major power to encircle another one. The recent situation in Ukraine is a warning to the rest of the world that the security of one country cannot be guaranteed at the expense of undermining security of others, and that regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs. Asian countries are not willing to repeat the troubles Washington made in Europe.
It is a “mystery” to us why “China’s” propaganda organs put “random” words in “quotation” marks.
Chart of the Day
Hanna Liubakova is a journalist from Minsk and a non-resident fellow at The Atlantic Council, formerly of RFE/RL.
The name of the military.
Is the US the “gas-rich country” and Trump the “notoriously corrupt former president” who “is back in the news following an attempted coup in January”?
I used to live down the street from a BBQ shop that advertised:
Come By For the Best Pulled "Pork" in "Town"
I didn't dare.