You guys forgot to mention, that former chancellor turned Germany’s Ruzzian oligarch, Gerhard Schröder, has praised his old pal Olaf Scholz for his stance on Ukraine. As in not delivering Taurus.
Currently, CDU is projected at getting the same amount of votes as Scholz‘ ruling ‚Ampel‘-Coalition (traffic light coalition). https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ So, It’s pretty safe to assume, that Merz will become the next Chancellor of Germany.
Ah, that depends. First of all, years ago Merz was sidelined by Angela Merkel and he even had left politics for a couple of years. His most recent bid for leadership of CDU was preceded by losing against Kramp-Karrenbauer, who was Merkel‘s heir apparent, and then against Armin Laschet, who royally screwed up his own shot at becoming chancellor. Merz is the favourite candidate of the conservative part of the CDU base. Merkel‘s strategy to topple SPD‘s status as its big rival, was to move the party to the left and absorb both red and green political positions. As in exiting nuclear power, for example. As the numbers of recent polling suggest, this worked terrifically. But this also opened up a space to the right of CDU, which was an opportunity for AfD to swoop in and draw parts of disgruntled right-wing CDU members over to the far-right. With the self-sabotage by Laschet at the last elections, the Merkel-era of CDU was largely over and the party was forced to reinvent itself. Merz was the natural choice and CDU is performing extremely well at the polls. Yet, he personally is not that well-liked by the general public. Probably because he was under constant fire from all facets of the political spectrum, especially the Merkel faction of his own party CDU, in addition to ideological opponents from the left and the far right. And basically almost all of the media, except conservative Focus and FAZ. He also could help save the FDP (LibDems) from falling below the 5% threshold. Merz might be able to revive the old CDU/FDP alliance which was so successful under Kohl/Genscher and brought Germany’s reunification. Although, if that would come to pass, Lindner, who is the worst leader the FDP ever had, would be finished politically. Back to your question: Obviously, he‘s been in opposition for a very long time. Mostly to the left leaning Merkel-faction of his own party more than anyone else. But, I think he matured and polished his profile. He held a couple of decent speeches and is a constant pain in the derrière of Olaf Scholz and the unpopular ‚Ampel‘-coalition. So he might be able to draw disgruntled CDU voters back into the fold, while not even risking to lose a lot on the left fringe. The latter is to a significant degree owned to Scholz‘ weaknesses: serious lack of leadership qualities and charisma. Also Scholz can’t/won‘t reign in Gerhard Schröder an ex-chancellor who‘s still calling the shots in SPD, but from Moscow, unfortunately. That said, I think Merz has the potential to become a great chancellor. He‘d try to reinvigorate the transatlantic ties, raise the military budget and increase critical support to Ukraine. From Putin‘s perspective, Merz would be the least favourite candidate for next German Chancellor.
In terms of the rest of the podcast I personally am a big fan of Freidrich Merz and according the polls he is likely to get the largest share of the vote in the next German election scheduled in late 2025. In my own view he is a cross between Helmut Kohl and Emmanuel Macron. He is like Kohl solely a creature of traditional "West" German society and unlike Angela Merkel has little use for the neutralism of the former DDR/East Germany or really anything East German related(A real "Wessie"). Like Macron he is also quite comfortable and friendly with big business and capital. A real traditional center right politician out of the 1980s Helmut Kohl/Ronald Reagan/Margaret Thatcher/Brian Mulroney/Nakasone era. So yes I can totally get why Claire would be a huge fan of him as am I. The real issue for Merz is just how much share of the vote he gets and which other parties he will need in coalition to form government. It is very unlikely you will see a CDU/FDP coalition like you saw back in the 1980s pre unification under Helmut Kohl. A Green/CDU coalition could agree strongly on the subject of Ukraine but strongly disagree on bringing back nuclear energy(Which Merz has already indicated will be part of his electoral platform reversing the CDU's position under Merkel) One possibility which my friend Mark Nelson from Radiant Energy has been discussing is there might be a return to nuclear with a Lander veto. So Bavaria might be allowed to turn back on two nuclear plants(Bavaria's Lander govt supports nuclear) but bringing back some of nuclear plants in Northern Germany where the SDP and Greens are stronger might be a harder lift.
I personally think in homage to the Alex P Keaton/Ronald Reagan/Helmut Kohl style of politics Merz wants to bring back he should make Randy Newman's song from 1988 "It's Money that Matters" his campaign theme song.
And if you wonder why I choose this "American" song note all the references not just to 1980s American culture but also our 1980s G7 allies like Japan, France, Italy and yes West Germany going through there own booms in conspicuous consumption. BTW, if France is so socialist especially in the 1980s why was Cannes, France the sister city of Beverly Hills, CA?
From the article......".This leaves a problem. Donald Trump, like most challengers to a vulnerable sitting president, relies on hyperbolic criticism and changing the subject rather than committing himself on difficult policy choices that might displease some set of voters.
The media, however, can no longer be trusted to give a skeptical, realistic account of what he might do as president, preferring to put words in his mouth to suit its own narratives.
In Ukraine, the American people don’t want Russia to win, don’t want to see the war expanded, and don’t want it to drag on." (Holman Jenkins.)
I have that feeling almost all the time now. It's eerie. I used to get this strange sad feeling when I read poetry from the First World War--a hard feeling to describe, like the feeling of a sharp wind over a wintry grave. Now, I often have that feeling unbidden. I shake my head and tell myself not to talk myself into grief for something that hasn't yet happened (and not to be so arrogant as to believe that I, of all people, have been given the gift, or the curse, of the ability to know the future) but I find myself superstitious, despite myself, and I hope it's just age and a premonition of my own mortality, not anyone else's.
My ❤️ is for the darling, but useless, pic at the end. Perfect
Why not catch the mouse in trap that will not harm him and let him loose in a park?
You guys forgot to mention, that former chancellor turned Germany’s Ruzzian oligarch, Gerhard Schröder, has praised his old pal Olaf Scholz for his stance on Ukraine. As in not delivering Taurus.
Currently, CDU is projected at getting the same amount of votes as Scholz‘ ruling ‚Ampel‘-Coalition (traffic light coalition). https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ So, It’s pretty safe to assume, that Merz will become the next Chancellor of Germany.
Wow. Is he as good as that speech suggests?
Ah, that depends. First of all, years ago Merz was sidelined by Angela Merkel and he even had left politics for a couple of years. His most recent bid for leadership of CDU was preceded by losing against Kramp-Karrenbauer, who was Merkel‘s heir apparent, and then against Armin Laschet, who royally screwed up his own shot at becoming chancellor. Merz is the favourite candidate of the conservative part of the CDU base. Merkel‘s strategy to topple SPD‘s status as its big rival, was to move the party to the left and absorb both red and green political positions. As in exiting nuclear power, for example. As the numbers of recent polling suggest, this worked terrifically. But this also opened up a space to the right of CDU, which was an opportunity for AfD to swoop in and draw parts of disgruntled right-wing CDU members over to the far-right. With the self-sabotage by Laschet at the last elections, the Merkel-era of CDU was largely over and the party was forced to reinvent itself. Merz was the natural choice and CDU is performing extremely well at the polls. Yet, he personally is not that well-liked by the general public. Probably because he was under constant fire from all facets of the political spectrum, especially the Merkel faction of his own party CDU, in addition to ideological opponents from the left and the far right. And basically almost all of the media, except conservative Focus and FAZ. He also could help save the FDP (LibDems) from falling below the 5% threshold. Merz might be able to revive the old CDU/FDP alliance which was so successful under Kohl/Genscher and brought Germany’s reunification. Although, if that would come to pass, Lindner, who is the worst leader the FDP ever had, would be finished politically. Back to your question: Obviously, he‘s been in opposition for a very long time. Mostly to the left leaning Merkel-faction of his own party more than anyone else. But, I think he matured and polished his profile. He held a couple of decent speeches and is a constant pain in the derrière of Olaf Scholz and the unpopular ‚Ampel‘-coalition. So he might be able to draw disgruntled CDU voters back into the fold, while not even risking to lose a lot on the left fringe. The latter is to a significant degree owned to Scholz‘ weaknesses: serious lack of leadership qualities and charisma. Also Scholz can’t/won‘t reign in Gerhard Schröder an ex-chancellor who‘s still calling the shots in SPD, but from Moscow, unfortunately. That said, I think Merz has the potential to become a great chancellor. He‘d try to reinvigorate the transatlantic ties, raise the military budget and increase critical support to Ukraine. From Putin‘s perspective, Merz would be the least favourite candidate for next German Chancellor.
Mice respond to incentives.
I nominate this to be proclaimed the Official Light Verse of "The Elephant Cage":
https://unwokeindianaag.substack.com/p/poetry-corner
Ah, but you have a competitor. Remember this? https://claireberlinski.substack.com/p/songs-of-the-serious-animals?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fsongs%2520of%2520the%2520serious%2520animals&utm_medium=reader2 I'm sure my Pop wrote one about an elephant, too.
Well, okay, it’s your dad and if he has an elephant poem, I’ll bow out with minimum ill grace…
In terms of the rest of the podcast I personally am a big fan of Freidrich Merz and according the polls he is likely to get the largest share of the vote in the next German election scheduled in late 2025. In my own view he is a cross between Helmut Kohl and Emmanuel Macron. He is like Kohl solely a creature of traditional "West" German society and unlike Angela Merkel has little use for the neutralism of the former DDR/East Germany or really anything East German related(A real "Wessie"). Like Macron he is also quite comfortable and friendly with big business and capital. A real traditional center right politician out of the 1980s Helmut Kohl/Ronald Reagan/Margaret Thatcher/Brian Mulroney/Nakasone era. So yes I can totally get why Claire would be a huge fan of him as am I. The real issue for Merz is just how much share of the vote he gets and which other parties he will need in coalition to form government. It is very unlikely you will see a CDU/FDP coalition like you saw back in the 1980s pre unification under Helmut Kohl. A Green/CDU coalition could agree strongly on the subject of Ukraine but strongly disagree on bringing back nuclear energy(Which Merz has already indicated will be part of his electoral platform reversing the CDU's position under Merkel) One possibility which my friend Mark Nelson from Radiant Energy has been discussing is there might be a return to nuclear with a Lander veto. So Bavaria might be allowed to turn back on two nuclear plants(Bavaria's Lander govt supports nuclear) but bringing back some of nuclear plants in Northern Germany where the SDP and Greens are stronger might be a harder lift.
I personally think in homage to the Alex P Keaton/Ronald Reagan/Helmut Kohl style of politics Merz wants to bring back he should make Randy Newman's song from 1988 "It's Money that Matters" his campaign theme song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS06eprlj2I
And if you wonder why I choose this "American" song note all the references not just to 1980s American culture but also our 1980s G7 allies like Japan, France, Italy and yes West Germany going through there own booms in conspicuous consumption. BTW, if France is so socialist especially in the 1980s why was Cannes, France the sister city of Beverly Hills, CA?
From the article......".This leaves a problem. Donald Trump, like most challengers to a vulnerable sitting president, relies on hyperbolic criticism and changing the subject rather than committing himself on difficult policy choices that might displease some set of voters.
The media, however, can no longer be trusted to give a skeptical, realistic account of what he might do as president, preferring to put words in his mouth to suit its own narratives.
In Ukraine, the American people don’t want Russia to win, don’t want to see the war expanded, and don’t want it to drag on." (Holman Jenkins.)
What do you mean by don't want the war expanded? Russia gets to keep Crimea forever?
Jenkins' perceived assessment of how the vast majority of Americans feel. "Expanded" is a term with any number of applications in the current context.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-ukraine-dont-listen-to-mainstream-media-predictions-on-second-term-0a7589cd?st=0rkexkt64obanrr If you can't access, I'll excerpt.
Dou remember the old westerns?
Cowboys sitting around a campfire, cattle milling nearby, thunder in the distance, and one of the cowboys says: "Cattle are restless tonight "?
You know that trouble is coming.
Feels like that right now - on a lot of fronts.
Don't know if it will be a stampede, Indians (sorry Native-Americans), or rustlers.
But trouble is coming.
And like in the westerns, good character, skills, and determination will be needed.
I have that feeling almost all the time now. It's eerie. I used to get this strange sad feeling when I read poetry from the First World War--a hard feeling to describe, like the feeling of a sharp wind over a wintry grave. Now, I often have that feeling unbidden. I shake my head and tell myself not to talk myself into grief for something that hasn't yet happened (and not to be so arrogant as to believe that I, of all people, have been given the gift, or the curse, of the ability to know the future) but I find myself superstitious, despite myself, and I hope it's just age and a premonition of my own mortality, not anyone else's.
When they force you to study that poetry in school it immunizes you from the sadness. Dulce et decorum est... whatever, Wilfred.
I am friends with the head of Radiant energy who wrote that report on nuclear energy in Germany, FYI.