Someone should start to do the thinking on the COVID-19's geopolitical fallout other than petty autocrats' power grab. Is the coronavirus gonna fully deglobalize the world? If so, does this benefit the US more than any other country combined? My hunch is YES. We need at least analysis on 3 scenarios. Best: rapid containments worldwide, recession for 2 quarters, social distancing until next year. Medium: status quo, US has therapeutics in ~2 months, vaccine 18 months away, spasmodic outbreaks in all 50 states all the way through despite mitigation effort, but with strong surveillance US can return to near normal economical activities in May, tsunamis in emerging economies. WORST: therapeutics fail, vaccines fail, virus mutates like flu and culls population each winter or all year long, the whole world has to choose between minimalist wartime economy or mass casualty indefinitely, the history becomes a non-stop version of WWII.
Someone should start to do the thinking on the COVID-19's geopolitical fallout other than petty autocrats' power grab. Is the coronavirus gonna fully deglobalize the world? If so, does this benefit the US more than any other country combined? My hunch is YES. We need at least analysis on 3 scenarios. Best: rapid containments worldwide, recession for 2 quarters, social distancing until next year. Medium: status quo, US has therapeutics in ~2 months, vaccine 18 months away, spasmodic outbreaks in all 50 states all the way through despite mitigation effort, but with strong surveillance US can return to near normal economical activities in May, tsunamis in emerging economies. WORST: therapeutics fail, vaccines fail, virus mutates like flu and culls population each winter or all year long, the whole world has to choose between minimalist wartime economy or mass casualty indefinitely, the history becomes a non-stop version of WWII.