A Peter Zeihan Surprise

Guess who popped over to join us on the Cosmopolicast?

Peter Zeihan is an incredibly good sport.

He joined the Cosmopolicast for more than an hour to discuss (almost) all of my questions—and much, much more. He’s a terrific interlocutor, and it was awfully gracious and generous of him to share so much time with us. I’m sure you’ll enjoy the conversation as much as I did. My only regret is that I got so caught up in the discussion that I forgot to ask one or two of the things I meant to ask. But we also talked about lots of things I hadn’t even thought to ask about.

Here are the topics we covered:

• Is history the story of great men or great forces?

• Does the Biden Administration’s policy in Ukraine mean that globalization is back on track?

• Do Americans still believe the things they did when they built the postwar order?

• Is NATO’s revitalization as meaningful as it looks?

• Is Europe taking Russia’s threats seriously enough?

• What would happen to Ukraine if Trump were reelected?

• Is Peter sure he’s using the right Chinese demographic statistics?

• Why is his view of China’s future so different from the American bureaucracy’s?

• If the intelligence community and the DoD have this completely wrong, what does this suggest about their analytic acumen?

• Could the US use its leverage with China more effectively?

• Could the US create a new global trade system that would mitigate the catastrophic future he predicts and bring China in from the cold?

• What would Peter say to Xi if he were the US ambassador to China?

• Does he think Xi understands the demographic argument he’s making?

• Since the global aging we’re now seeing is unprecedented, how can we be sure of its economic effects?

• Could technology and productivity gains offset these effects?

• If global shipping is interrupted, how much of the slack could be picked up by rail transport?

• Why don’t US policy documents say anything about our imminent withdrawal from the world?

• Why does Peter think the US left Afghanistan the way it did?

• What effect does Peter think this had on US allies and adversaries?

• Why isn’t the West transferring weapons to Ukraine faster?

• Why did he get it wrong in predicting Kiev would fall within days?

• What has he learned from that mistake?

• Why is the Russian military so catastrophically bad?

• Does this look more like World War I Russia or World War II Russia?

• Are we seeing Russia revert to a pre-industrial military?

• Would Russian nukes even work?

• Does he think it makes sense to ask what Vladimir Putin is thinking, or will this conflict chiefly be determined by material forces?

• Is Putin too cut off from reality to understand that Russia is losing?

• Does Putin believe his own lies about Ukraine and the West?

• Who has Putin’s ear and what are they saying to him?

• Are Putin’s objectives different from those of previous Russian leaders?

• What does Russia’s history suggest it will do next?

• What does he think Biden and Washington are thinking about Russia and Ukraine?

• If Peter were the US president, how would he handle this situation?

• How does he rank Biden’s performance?

• How does he rank Europe’s?

• Is American protectionism here to stay?

• If it is, how will this affect Europe?

• What effect has Brexit had on the EU’s ability to lobby against US trade barriers?

• Is the EU going to fall apart?

• Can Norway really pump out enough oil to sustain Europe?

• Given sufficient investment, how long would it take to get new fossil fuel production on line to replace Russia’s?

• Could the US replace Russia as a natural gas supplier?

• What’s the best solution to Europe’s energy crisis?

• Why can’t nuclear power replace fossil fuels in Germany?

• Is his view of America’s future too optimistic given its political dysfunction?

• Is America falling apart, or is this just one of its typical tumultuous periods of party realignment?

• If the latter, how long will it take for the US to regain its stability?

• Why won’t Americans think rationally about the Mexican border?¹

• How did the Trump presidency change the identity of Mexican-Americans, and what does this mean for American politics?

• How well can we really predict the future?

• Where should you start if you want to do it?

• Is Peter coming down with Covid?²