Why cutting Russia off from Swift isn't so simple
The financial nuclear option. And the real nuclear option.
From Claire—it occurred to me that it’s probably not worth my time to summarize the news from Kiev. It’s on the front pages of every major newspaper. I’ve had a sleepless night following the news, and if you subscribe to the Cosmopolitan Globalist, you’ve probably been following the same news. (Our target market is not “people who wouldn’t have the first clue what happened last night in Ukraine,” right?) So I’ll skip the summary. We knew at the outset we couldn’t compete on breaking news, and besides, we’re not in Ukraine.
However, Vladislav Davidzon is in Ukraine—he’s said we can interview him later today—and he’s actually in his element; this is just a superb account: ‘Russian Ship … Go F**k Yourself!’
As he writes: Even in the face of certain death, Ukrainians are displaying heroism worthy of the darkest days of World War II.
We can’t compete with that. (Not until we can afford to pay him more than our competitors.)
But here’s where we can compete. The screams to cut Russia off of SWIFT now? I’m firmly with the screamers. But Vivek is making very important points here about the risks involved, and if you’re wondering why it’s taking everyone so long to figure out whether they should pull the trigger, this is why.
One line of the article jumped out at me as I was editing it.
…. the Cold War theory of mutually assured destruction, or MAD, assumed that military superpowers would make rational calculations, with rational actors at the helm. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine puts the rational actor theory into doubt.
This is exactly right: 75 years of carefully-elaborated nuclear deterrence doctrine looks a little stupid about now, doesn’t it? Putin clearly wants to die in a bunker, what’s to say he doesn’t want to take us all with him?
That said, MAD is all we’ve got. And we have to hope he’s faking it, because if he wants to take us all down with him, he pretty much can. Since we can’t do much if he’s genuinely nuts, we have to try to deter him as if he’s rational.
And I’m afraid the key to that is looking absolutely nuts ourselves.
To that effect, I propose that Biden begin the day by announcing that the United States is bringing back the draft, effective noon today. Every able-bodied man is now required to defend the nation. (Don’t bother with “every able-bodied woman,” Putin doesn’t care about that; and besides, someone needs to govern the country while our men are off ripping the guts out of Russians and laying waste to their crops.) We’ll be putting two million US troops in Europe within three months. Say: We demand Putin’s unconditional surrender. Every nation in Europe should make a similar, coordinated announcement.
We must make it clear to everyone around Putin that he may wish to perish in a bunker or a thermonuclear Holocaust, but they don’t have to. And trust me: If we look like we mean it, they’ll know what to do. It’s a mafia regime, not a death cult; if we make it plain that we are nuts, his officers will get rid of him by tomorrow.
And no, don’t tell me the virtue of Trump was that the Russians thought he might be crazy enough to nuke them. They didn’t. Trump is an abject physical coward who supplicated cravenly in Putin’s presence and everyone but his weirdo cult followers knows that full well. If you want to know what courage looks like—look at Zelensky. You think Trump would do that? Give me a break.
I don’t believe Biden will have the wherewithal to do the necessary either, unfortunately. But I’m giving him my best advice—after a sleepless night, admittedly.
He may wish to take other opinions under advisement.
As usual, Vivek Kelkar provides us with brilliant insights. He’s right, cutting off Russia from SWIFT might be the first step in a journey that ends in a very dark place for Americans and Europeans; the end of the dollar (and the dollar/euro axis) as the world’s reserve currency. Were this to occur (someday it will anyway, but there’s no reason to hasten that day) the world as we know it would be a very different place.
Despite an enormous fiscal and trade deficit, the United States can spend hundreds of billions of dollars on defense. Given the current circumstances US defense budgets will need to increase even more. How does the United States manage it? By printing boatloads of currency that never loses value because of the worlds insatiable hunger for green backs. Anything that threatens that dollar dominance is an existential threat to the West that is orders of magnitude more consequential than anything happening in Ukraine.
While Vivek’s essay is “left brain” at its best, Claire’s remarks clearly emanate from her “right brain.” She’s horrified by Putin’s behavior as all decent people should be. Obviously it’s clouded her judgement a bit.
Claire has no more idea than I do about whether Trump is an “abject physical coward.” Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. The same applies to Prime Minister Johnson, President Macron and a host of other world leaders past and present. It’s hard to imagine former President Obama exhibiting the courage that President Zelensky has. None of this matters a bit. There’s one thing we do know, a significant majority of Americans (and a substantial number of Democrats) believe that Putin would have been deterred from invading Ukraine if Trump were still in office. See,
See,
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/595919-62-percent-of-voters-say-putin-wouldnt-have-invaded-ukraine-if-trump
The facts are the facts. Putin first invaded Ukraine when Obama was President and he’s out to finish the job now that Biden’s the President. There was no invasion of Ukraine when Trump was in office and but for the paranoia and vitriol of those suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, the former President might have worked out an accommodation with Putin that forestalled the tragedy we are now witnessing. Of course, we will never know, but the possibility is at least plausible if not probable.
The time for the blame game will come soon enough but it’s not to early to identify some of the culprits. The biggest villain in all of this is Frau Merkel who denuded her nation of its military prowess, it’s nuclear power and its honor. Then there’s the Europeans themselves (with some exceptions) who became lazy, self-indulgent sybarites. Let’s not forget the neocons and liberal internationalists in the United States who blundered us into two wars that cost trillions, maimed thousands and soured Americans on engaging with the world militarily and even diplomatically.
To put the icing on the cake, Claire wants President Biden to reactivate the draft. Her idea is brilliant. That’s a sure fire way to get Americans who already don’t care about Ukraine to really get more motivated about what’s happening in Europe.
Claire didn’t mention whether she supports instituting a draft in Germany. Then again, if it happened, I’m not sure what armaments the Germans would have to fight with. In the absence of tanks, fighters jets and rifles, I suppose they could fight with bows and arrows or spears. Who knows, maybe we could even send them five thousand helmets.
Claire may or may not be right about Trump’s personal cowardice but she is certainly aware of the Western policies that inspired Putin to act.
Trump begged the Europeans to diminish their reliance on Russian energy. He also implored the Europeans to spend more on defense. Not only was he ignored, he was universally criticized by the globalist crowd for upsetting the consensus-oriented spirit of NATO.
Trump didn’t care; he sanctioned the problematic pipeline anyway. Biden demurred.
This video says it all.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLZBVTid4I
It’s pretty obvious who’s to blame for the mess the Ukrainians are in. It’s that miserable wretch Putin and the Europeans who facilitated his brutish behavior by ignoring Trump.
By the way, Claire, Putin’s miserable behavior is not likely to be associated with any neurological symptoms of COVID that he may or may not have had. But his craziness could easily be associated with symptoms of Parkinson’s Disease that many have suggested that he suffers from.
If he does have Parkinson’s, not only could his judgement be impacted, but Putin would know that he has a limited period of time before his is incapacitated. That might motivate him to act while he still can. See,
https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/latest/world/story/russian-president-vladimir-putin-step-down-observers-got-serious-disease-278031-2020-11-06
On another note, does Mr. Kelkar have any thoughts on India abstaining from the UN Resolution on Ukraine that was vetoed by Russia?