Yesterday we spoke to Vladislav Davidzon and Olga Tokariuk in Kyiv. You can download the podcast here or at the Cosmopolitan Globalist.
More by Vladislav at the Cosmopolitan Globalist:
LENINFALL AND THE GREAT DANE
The story of the Viking who defeated the Odessa mafia and erected a runestone.
ON MOSCOW’S OBJECTIVES
Ukrainian leaders visited Washington, D.C. The CIA and the Department of Defense gave them private briefings. They emerged deeply shaken.
WHAT MANAFORT’S PARDON TAUGHT US
Ukrainians may be dejected that Manafort has been sprung, but they’re not entitled to be. They relied on Americans to prosecute him instead of doing it themselves. If you want the law enforced in your country, you must prosecute your own criminals. That’s what sovereignty is all about.
Previous podcasts with Vladislav:
THE ANGELS AND DEMONS OF ODESSA
Vladislav Davidzon and David Patrikarakos regale the editors with Black Sea gossip and tales of heroic adventures.
THE COSMORUSSYACAST
It’s a riddle wrapped in a mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a complete nuisance. Scott Abel joins us from Tallinn. Estonia’s former president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, reinforces the Estonian contingent from his lonely farmhouse in the Estonian countryside. Jon Nighswander (who began his career as a Russianist) joins us from Vienna.
Global Eyes, Ukraine edition
New intelligence suggests Russia plans a false flag operation to trigger an invasion of Ukraine. The intelligence was discussed in a White House meeting Thursday night and led to renewed calls for Americans to leave Ukraine immediately.
Russia and US evacuate diplomatic staff from Ukraine.
Facing maximum pressure from Russia, Zelensky refuses to blink.
Russia’s foreign ministry says talk of war is propaganda and “hysteria.”
Biden and Putin to speak as Ukraine warnings mount.
It’s obvious what will happen, but how will it happen? Russia will invade Ukraine from the North, East, and South. There will be three operational thrusts, each commanded by one of Russia’s three army commands currently deployed near Ukraine:
Kyiv Operation — 1st Guards Tank Army
Dnieper Operation — 20th Guards Combined Arms Army
Odessa Operation — 8th Guards Combined Arms Army
The Kyiv and Odessa Operations are the main thrusts, as control of Kyiv and a corridor from Russia to Transnistria are the primary operational aims. As for Ukrainian defense plans and preparations, known and assumed — none of them will be discussed here. No one wants to aid Putin and it is best if Russian soldiers only discover Ukrainian defense preparation once they find themselves under Ukrainian fire.
Before the invasion Russia will create a false-flag event as pretext: either Putin’s military will attack Russia or the Putin’s intelligence agencies will stage a chemical weapons attack in Donbas. Fittingly Putin’s defense minister Shoigu has already publicly blamed the CIA if the latter happens. Once Putin’s propaganda has videos of “Russian” corpses, then Russia’s military, coincidentally and conveniently already placed in combat readiness on Ukraine’s borders, will invade.
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The operational details of Putin’s offensive as briefed in November and war-gamed in December:
… This is the maximal Russian invasion plan. Western militaries’ war games showed that Ukrainian forces have only minuscule chances to defeat Russian armored forces in an open battle, as Russian air supremacy will be massive. Ukraine’s chance to successfully fight Russia to standstill rests on Ukraine’s ability to activate, equip and disperse Ukrainian active and reserve forces quickly and effectively before Russia invades. It rests on Ukraine dispersing and camouflaging its forces to reduce the risk of losing entire battalions to Russian artillery and rocket strikes. It rests on Ukraine’s ability to deny Russia the use of its railways. It rests on Ukraine’s ability to ambush, isolate and destroy Russian units in detail. It rests on Ukraine’s ability to deny Russia the crossing of the Dnieper. It rests very much on the speed, amount and type of weapons the West delivers. It rests on the ability of Ukraine’s population to endure in the face of Russian bombardments and sieges. And it rest above all, as Finland showed in winter of 1940–41, on the Ukrainians ability to kill Russian soldiers: 10,000 is good; 50,000 is better; 100,000 dead Russian soldiers will bring peace.
The TikTok buildup: Videos reveal Russian forces closing in on Ukraine.
In northern Ukraine, fears of a Russian invasion shatter cross-border ties. Ukrainian insurgency units train in case Russia moves in; “We all used to be like brothers.”
Satellite images show Russia adding military pressure on Ukraine. “These images show either the biggest bluff in modern military history or an expression of Russia’s desire to show the world that they are preparing a military operation.” … “Until now, satellite images have shown divisions stationed in barracks, now, some of these soldiers have started to move towards the border. … The satellite photos also show, for the first time, “the installation of a field hospital …. ” Meanwhile Moscow continues to clear its eastern front as it moves troops towards the west, repatriating soldiers from as far as Siberia to Belarus. …
Rocket launchers on roads near Kursk:
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What Happens When Russian Hackers Come for the Electrical Grid: “In late December, U.S. officials privately warned utilities they could be targeted if relations with Russia deteriorate, telling them their security teams shouldn’t take the holidays off, according to two people familiar with the briefing. On Jan. 11, US officials publicly called on utilities to comb their networks for signs of Russian intrusions.”
By Nicolas Tenzer: Discussions, dialogue or negotiation: Is it possible to deal with the Russian regime?
The view from Ukraine