The Decline of American Competence

Why the software of American public problem solving is so buggy.

Note: Recently, in our ME101 discussion group, we discussed the quality and thoroughness of the written work produced by British colonial officers, and in that context, I mentioned the original version of this article, which I published several years ago. Since no one remembered it, I promised to publish it again. When I went back to read it, I saw that it could use an update: Most readers will have forgotten the events I was describing. This version differs quite a bit from the original—but it makes the same argument.

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How did Americans become incompetent?

In 2020, the Iowa caucuses turned into a debacle when the Democrats’ new smartphone app, meant to streamline the process of tabulating and reporting results, failed spectacularly and left them them unable to name a winner.

In response, David French put in writing a thought that had been quietly gathering in my mind for some time. There has been, he wrote, a broad breakdown in competence in the United States. No one quite understands why. But American history, roughly since the turn of the century, has been one of staggering incompetence, and the consequences of this have been catastrophic.

French asked readers to image a series of counterfactuals: What if Palm Beach County officials had competently designed their election ballots in 2000? What if our intelligence agencies had competently assessed the state of Saddam Hussein’s nuclear program? What if our banks had competently evaluated the risks of subprime mortgages?

Since French wrote that column, we’ve seen a slew of new fiascos deriving from this breakdown in competence; indeed, the pace of these catastrophes seems to be accelerating. What if our government had responded competently to the early warning signs of the pandemic in Wuhan? What if the CDC had quickly designed and shipped an accurate test for SARS-CoV-2?