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Q&A with Tecumseh Court

claireberlinski.substack.com

Q&A with Tecumseh Court

Dear Abby of War and Violence: Can we at least count on the Americans to do the right thing after they’ve tried everything else?

Claire Berlinski
Mar 15, 2022
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Q&A with Tecumseh Court

claireberlinski.substack.com

Gentle Reader: What does the fog of war look like when Putin is willing to use chemical and nuclear weapons? How do NATO and the US respond should Putin instruct Russian forces to make forays into Moldova, Poland, and Romania? What is the likelihood Putin does something unwise on US soil? How does the US respond?

Tecumseh Court: I’ve seen much these past few days I’ve found concerning. Whenever I read news about war, I ask: “Is it good or bad that I’m reading this? Is the enemy advantaged or disadvantaged by this information? Am I?” Because news in war is counterintuitive. It’s what everyone wants to read about, so media organizations will always post something. The headlines (as CG readers know well) rarely provide the story’s substance. We can’t do anything now about Mariupol. We know that. We’ll read about it anyway, but that’s not what we're trying to understand. Once we’ve confirmed that Zelensky’s still alive and supply lines are intact, we’re looking to see that more Russian soldiers are dying and the ISW’s Ukraine map isn’t further colored red.

So my stomach turned when I saw headlines about the MiG-F-16 swap-out plan. If that was going to happen, we never should’ve read about it. There’s no need for John Q. Public or the Russians to know NATO cut that deal. If it was a go, Ukrainian pilots could just get in the MiGs and start killing Russians. Clearly, the people closest to the point of decision—the Ukrainians and Poles—already thought it made sense. They were following Warfighting just fine. When I read it, I thought, Oh shit. This could’ve happened, but now it’s dead in the water.

Why did we read about it? I imagine because after the Poles worked out the deal with the Ukrainians, bureaucrats in DoD or State or wherever got squeamish and shot holes through it. The Poles and Ukrainians, accurately grasping that we are well past the time for bureaucratic bullshit, then leaked the MiG deal, hoping the press and public opinion would force senior decision-makers (Blinken, Milley, Austin, and ultimately Biden) to cut through the bullshit and do the right fucking thing.

Sadly, the American leadership failed. The US welched on a perfectly reasonable plan to field F-16s to Poland and get MiGs in the Ukrainian skies—even with Ukraine having an 81 percent approval rating among Americans—because ... why exactly? Because we need those F-16s on standby in case Russia invades Lithuania or China invades Taiwan? The Ukrainians (less so the Poles, but still) need equipment now.

News flash, American generals, senior policymakers, and White House special advisors: We’re in the war you thought we’d never fight. Sorry, but here it is. You need to change your game plan. Stop asking “how do we prevent a nuclear war.” It’s simple: In MAD we trust. Stop worrying about what the enemy’s going to do us and focus on what we’re gonna do to the enemy. Right. Fucking. Now. There is no other way out. 

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