Global Eyes

The world keeps turning

Goodbye, Novocherkassk.

Let’s catch up on the news of the world, since probably, like me, you haven’t been paying especially close attention these past few days.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Fireball over Crimea as Ukraine hits large Russian navy ship. The missile strike is a further blow against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet:

The Ukrainian military on Tuesday said it blew up the Russian landing vessel Novocherkassk stationed in the occupied Crimean port of Feodosia. Russian authorities later confirmed that the warship had been severely damaged, and that one person was killed, two wounded and six people evacuated from their homes, Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the regional authority of Russian-controlled Crimea, was quoted as saying by Russia’s TASS news agency. The 360-foot-long warship was capable of transporting 10 tanks and hundreds of troops, according to Moscow.

Why Ukraine’s attack on the Novocherkassk warship matters:

Crimea is not Kherson, to be sure, and it would take a truly dire situation to drive Russia from it, not least because Putin likely considers the peninsula politically existential. Nonetheless, for the present at least, Kyiv’s best chance of regaining Crimea seems to be by making it too difficult and expensive to hold. The Feodosiya attack was calculated not only to damage specific military assets, but also to ram home the message that nowhere on the peninsula is safe from Ukrainian action.

The impact of ending military aid to Ukraine. Gradual decline, then collapse:

As Congress dithers about funding aid to Ukraine, Ukrainian military capabilities decline. This decline is gradual. Previously committed weapons, munitions, and supplies will keep some equipment flowing for months or even years. However, the effects of declining aid will be increasingly apparent on the battlefield. Ukraine is no longer able to conduct a counteroffensive. By February or March, it will have difficulty conducting local counterattacks, and by early summer, it will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point, the front will collapse, and Russia will impose a harsh peace.

Reasons for hope in Ukraine: