Geopolitical Crystal Ball
Recent worldwide conflicts serve as a global turbulence report card, offering Taiwan valuable insights into managing its own stability.
Israel-Hamas Takeaways
The battle between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7, 2023, was a significant and highly publicized event in the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This particular escalation was triggered by a series of events, including tensions in East Jerusalem, the forced eviction of Palestinian families in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, and clashes around the Al-Aqsa Mosque. These developments intensified rocket attacks from Hamas in the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory and Israeli airstrikes in response.
Israel, a Middle Eastern nation, has been grappling with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for decades, with periodic escalations in violence. Hamas, considered a terrorist organization by some countries, governs the Gaza Strip and has been a critical player in this conflict, using a combination of guerrilla warfare and rocket attacks. The war has led to significant loss of life and destruction on both sides and has drawn global attention due to the complex geopolitical implications, international peace efforts, and humanitarian concerns.
In parallel, Taiwan, an island nation in East Asia, faces a unique security situation due to its complex relationship with China. The People's Republic of China has claimed Taiwan as a province and has not ruled out using force to achieve reunification. As a result, Taiwan has maintained a defense posture to deter potential threats from the Chinese mainland.
The recent Israel-Hamas conflict has sparked discussions in Taiwan about its defense strategies in case of a similar attack from China, given the regional tensions and the need for a robust national defense policy to ensure its sovereignty and security.
The Airstrikes
The militant group had unleashed over 2,000 rockets from Gaza into Israel within a mere 20-minute timeframe, effectively overwhelming Israel's renowned Iron Dome air defense system.
"The threat of a rocket attack [on Taiwan] is real," said Chieh Chung, an associate research fellow at the National Policy Foundation in Taipei, underscoring two key factors:
First, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been deploying rockets with a range of 150-300 kilometers, which can reach Taiwan's west coast, Chieh said.
Moreover, he emphasized that during the extensive military maneuvers conducted by China near Taiwan in August 2022 in response to the visit of former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei, the PLA launched rockets into a maritime region close to the median line of the Taiwan Strait to demonstrate their capacity to execute such an assault.
Chieh cautioned that when China unleashes a substantial volume of incoming rockets in a limited time, no surface-to-air missile system can intercept them all.
Thus, safeguarding the most critical assets would be paramount to prevent their incapacitation in the event of a saturation attack involving PLA missiles or rockets, even though civilian casualties would be an "inescapable" outcome.
How to preserve and relocate troops and other necessary military assets so the country's armed forces can continue fighting will undoubtedly be one of the challenges for Taiwan's defensive strategy.
Public Safety
With the potential of air raid attacks, the top concern for the Taiwanese government is the public not being aware of shelter locations and how to access them.
Currently, information regarding the shelters is only accessible by scanning a QR code found within an online document called the "All-Out Defense Handbook." Yet, Wang, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator, said that not everyone is proficient in this procedure.
Under Taiwan's laws regarding shelters and evacuating during an airstrike, legal residential buildings with a basement are considered air raid shelters.
But there are several concerns: Is the basement of your building easily accessible? Is it supplied with essential provisions like food, water, and medical supplies? Is there a generator available for ventilator support?
To take any steps forward, Taiwan must figure out the safety procedure and ensure everyone is knowledgeable enough to protect themselves and possibly others.
Ukraine-Russia: China is taking notes
The Russia-Ukraine war has provided a possible playbook for how China might use cyber in a more direct conflict with Taiwan. "China is absolutely watching what's happening in Russia and Ukraine, what the U.S. is doing or not," said Shawn Henry, former top FBI official and the head of cybersecurity company CrowdStrike.
Although Beijing reaffirms that "peaceful reunification" is its preferred course of action, the People's Republic of China (PRC) continues to signal its willingness to use military force against Taiwan.
Cyber Campaign
China has various options to coerce Taipei based on its increasing capabilities in multiple domains. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) could also conduct a range of cyberspace, blockade, and kinetic campaigns designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification or compel Taiwan's leadership to the negotiation table on the PRC's terms.
Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly has warned throughout the year that China has an incentive to conduct cyberattacks on the United States if it invades Taiwan.
"China already has a bigger hacking program than every other major nation combined," said FBI Director Christopher A. Wray. "In fact, if each one of the FBI's cyber agents and intelligence analysts focused on China exclusively, Chinese hackers would still outnumber our cyber personnel by at least 50:1. Let me say that again: 50:1. With AI, China is now in a position to try to close the cycle — to use the fruits of their widespread hacking to power, with AI, even-more-powerful hacking efforts." He added.
However, there is still time to prevent such things happening. "If we come together, collectively as a nation, across our businesses and allies, to put our heart into the hard work of achieving safe, secure, and resilient infrastructure for the people," Easterly stated.
Civil Defense
Civil defense has become prominent and evolved from its traditional focus solely on supporting the military.
Nowadays, civil defense is also responsible for helping society develop resilience and encompasses efforts to ensure the continued stable operation of humanity after it has come under attack, to bring about speedy economic recovery, to treat people experiencing trauma, and to counter cyberattacks, cognitive warfare, and disinformation campaigns.
To ensure these functions during wartime, preparations should be made during peaceful times.
So far, Taiwan's civil defense system has neglected increasing social resilience. They must rethink and review civil defense and overhaul the entire system. This will be a huge challenge for Taiwan.
Wow! However, from the angle of business, there’s nothing to worried about. More details to check out from The Larry Talk podcast. It’s available both on Spotify and Apple Podcasts!