Evening update
Russia takes hospital hostage, murders journalists, claims Ukraine developing nuclear weapons; more from The FSB Songbird; on Germany's revolution, and more.
EUROPE
From the IWM Ukraine Newsletter:
War is taking an unspeakable toll on Ukraine: once it became clear Russia’s initial assault failed to topple the Ukrainian government, the aggressor shifted to the savage punishment of Ukrainian civilians for their staunch resistance. Cities are encircled and civilian targets, from kindergartens to hospitals to zoos, are under attack; Russian forces are deliberately killing people trying to flee to safety.
Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski also lost his life in the attack.
From the Media Initiative for Human Rights, a generally credible organization: “Russians have occupied an intensive care hospital in Mariupol. Staff and patients cannot leave the building under threat of execution.”
The head of Donetsk Regional Military Administration, Pavlo Kyrylenko, confirms that Russian forces captured the hospital. Patients and doctors are being held hostage while surrounding buildings are ablaze.
The Russians are firing from the hospital.
Send them.
Having managed to score a hit among the professionally gullible with the claim Ukraine is developing biological weapons, now Russia claims Ukraine is developing nuclear weapons. (Here’s a thread tracing the spread of the biological weapons absurdity from its conception in a QAnon account through its gestation in the anti-vax womb to its birth in the Russian and Chinese state media and its christening on prime time with Tucker Carlson.)
Today in Russia, from Media Zone, via Google Translate:
17:49 Russia imposed sanctions against US President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, and head of the Pentagon [sic] Austin
Binging and purging
Bellingcat decided to call the FSB generals who were reportedly purged.1 They didn’t answer. (The ones who weren’t reportedly purged picked up the phone.) The arrests seem to be connected to the billions the FSB was given to recruit assets in the Ukrainian government to carry out a coup that would hand the country to Russia. It seems they bought dead souls and pocketed the change. That’s the scuttlebutt, anyway.
The alleged FSB songbird is now making very specific, testable predictions. My strong intuition is it’s fiction. But I can’t stop reading it: It’s a page-turner.
It appears World War III has begun; our guys are opening champagne—the war between Iran and the United States disrupts the nuclear deal and blocks the ability to replace Russian oil with Iranian oil. The inevitable shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil to skyrocket in price. I have no idea why Iran chose to shoot itself in the foot. I could even believe in the existence of some kind of generally incomprehensible agreements [between Russia and Iran], but I don’t have a single fact that supports this.
Today I just want to convey information about the impending “exit” for Russia through our eyes [the FSB’s] and the “courtiers” at the Kremlin. …
Operation Gordian Knot
Stage 1: Most likely, Konashenkov [Major General, chief spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense] will officially declare at a briefing that Europe and the “collective West” have declared war on Russia by intervening in the Ukrainian conflict with their weapons and mercenaries, while simultaneously attacking Russia in the economic sphere. There will be an extended lecture that war is not contained to military operations on the battlefield, but it includes an array of aggressive actions aimed at causing direct damage to the opponent. That the West’s action de facto unleashed a world war. That this war has not yet moved into the “hot stage” with missiles and tanks only because Putin, as the supreme commander in chief, did not give such an order. Nevertheless, Konashenkov will declare that the Third World War has begun.
Stage 2: Assessment of the West’s reaction: 1-2 days.
Stage 3: Putin will make a speech. In this long lecture he will declare that the modern world is not as it was before, that war now includes cyber attacks, preparation of biological attacks, direct attacks, training of terrorists and saboteurs, and imposing of sanctions devastating to the economy. He [allegedly] does not want war, but the West has already started it [against Russia]. As a result, [the Russian] response need not be symmetrical and can respond to any act of aggression with any means available in a military confrontation. “I warned with Ukraine—but nobody listened.” [Putin’s message.] Russia has shown that its words [threats] are not empty. Putin will declare that he is ready to come to terms [forgive] what the West has already done, but only if sanctions are lifted within 24 hours, all assistance to Ukraine is stopped, and NATO will guarantee not to expand. Otherwise, Russia will have no choice but to accept the war and respond with all available means.
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