Argentina's Presidential Primaries (2)
Fascism on the rise, peronismo abides, liberals disappointed
A few quick thoughts on the results of Argentina’s presidential primaries.
1.
It’s extremely worrying that Milei got 30.06% of the vote, more than the two mainstream opposition candidates Bullrich (16.97%) and Rodríguez Larreta (11.29%) put together. Milei is variously described as far-right, ultra-right and libertarian and there’s something to all those but anyone modestly familiar with European history and who has seen a couple of his rallies knows that the best term to classify him is fascist. He also shows distinct signs of mental instability and his running mate Victoria Villaruel thinks the 1976-83 dictatorship may have made some mistakes but overall did a pretty good job. If Milei becomes President of Argentina, then the survival of its democratic system is open to question.
All-terrain media personality and purveyor of witticisms on Twitter Carlos Maslatón was one of those principally responsible for bringing Milei to public attention. I hope that the gilded youth of Palermo and around, amused by the former’s antics, will consider whether ironic consumption of fascism is really a cost-free pastime.
2.
Given the catastrophic state of the economy the combined total of the two government candidates Massa (21.39%) and Grabois (5.86) is pretty respectable. All of Grabois’s voters will certainly go over to Massa in the presidential election. Its days of hegemony are long gone but el peronismo abides.
3.
Rodríguez Larreta’s pathetic 11.29% suggests that moderate right government and a modicum of rationality are not what the people are into right now. Bullrich will be disappointed with her result but at least it gets her onto the presidential ballot paper for Juntos por el Cambio.
Argentina’s coterie of “Harvard economics PhD” types and “classical liberals” in the media must be really gutted by this result. They were certain that the country would choose one of their two candidates and two-thirds of voters wanted someone else. Well, guys, back to the drawing board, I guess.
4.
Milei, Bullrich and Massa now go on to contest the presidential election in October. If no candidate gets 40% of the vote and is at least ten points ahead of their nearest rival then there’s a second round of voting between the two leading candidates. So as Milei looks likely to come first the question is whether Bullrich or Massa comes second and which of them is better placed to beat Milei in the run-off. I really don’t have a clue as to the answer. Any democratically minded citizen should be prepared to vote for either one to keep out Milei but with the level of hatred between the peronistas and their rivals in Juntos por el Cambio it’s really hard to be sure what will happen.
5.
Axel Kiciloff, the peronista candidate, came first in the gubernatorial primary in Buenos Aires Province, a traditional stronghold of the movement and where more voters live than anywhere else in the country. As I said above, a bit groggy and unkempt, sure, but el peronismo abides.
6
Finally, this is the end of kirchnernismo, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner despises Massa and thought that letting him be the Peronista candidate was a hospital pass and she’d be able to go “told you so”. Massa (totally unprincipled and cuter than a shithouse rat) has far exceeded expectations for his candidacy and is still very much in the fight for the top job
Interesting take on Milei
As a counterpoint, here is a commentary by Stephen Moore, a well known economist and political commentator:
"Milei scornfully refers to career politicians as “the caste” and his economic program as the “chainsaw plan” — a nod to his proposed wide-ranging budget cuts and drastically reducing the size of the state. One of his trademark proposals which defined pre-electoral discourse is to abolish the Central Bank, effectively dollarizing the economy (and abolishing the peso) in a bid to combat inflation.
“We’re facing the end of the model of the caste. That model based on that atrocity which says where there is a need, a right is born, but they forget that that right has to be paid for,” he said. “It’s maximum expression, that aberration called social justice that makes us unequal before the law, a model that translates into a strong deficit.”…..
And from the NYT:
"A far-right libertarian candidate won Argentina’s open presidential primary election on Sunday, a surprising showing for a politician who wants to adopt the U.S. dollar as Argentina’s official currency... Javier Milei, 52, a congressman, economist and former television pundit, secured 30 percent of the vote..., making him the front-runner for the presidency in the fall general election. Polls had suggested that Mr. Milei’s support was at about 20 percent, and political analysts had predicted that his radical policy proposals — including abolishing the country’s central bank — would prevent him from attracting many more voters. ...Besides his ideas about the currency and the central bank, he has proposed drastically lowering taxes and cutting public spending, including by charging people to use the public health care system; closing or privatizing all state-owned enterprises; and eliminating the health, education and environment ministries. ...The incumbent center-left party has held power in Argentina for 16 of the past 20 years and has been controlled largely by former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. “We’re not only going to end Kirchnerism, but we’re also going to end the useless, parasitic, criminal political caste that is sinking this country,” Mr. Milei told supporters. ...He and his running mate...have suggested they would loosen gun laws...and even permit the sale of human organs, an example of commerce that Mr. Milei says the government has no business restricting."
Donnchada says about Milei:
"He also shows distinct signs of mental instability..."
Wish that we had more loonies like this in politics; perhaps our deficit would be a bit lower.