🛰️ Global Eyes, Eastern Edition
Vivek's news and notes from the Pacific to the Urals
🇨🇳China
🛩 All 132 people on board the China Eastern Airlines flight MU5735 died when it plunged into a hillside in southern China last month. Why? No one knows.
China says the black boxes were badly damaged, leaving no clues.
Investigators have found no signs that navigation or monitoring instruments failed. (Paywalled.)
No one is allowed to talk about it. Authorities have enforced strict censorship on all discussion of the doomed flight.
😷 Shanghai lockdown: About two-thirds of Shanghai’s 25 million residents remain under a lockdown that started three weeks ago, many without food, medical treatment, or information.
Authorities are trying to relocate entire communities in areas of Shanghai. The plan is to move people who have tested negative from their homes in Pingwang, north of the city, to the neighboring province of Zhejiang, where they will stay for at least a week. No one understands why:
An official notice issued to residents told them to pack their belongings and leave their wardrobe doors open. They were also told to leave open the front door of their home. Images on social media of people queuing with packed suitcases at night-time showed the scale of the operation.
The notice from the town’s Epidemic Prevention Office also included this order: “You cannot bring your pets with you during this evacuation, but we will arrange for them to be taken care of.”
A conversation between a German man and a translator conveying the message that city authorities want him to go to an isolation center:
The cost of zero-Covid. A perfect storm for the global supply chain:
… If you’re buying something online there’s a very good chance it was made in Shenzhen—a city of 17.5 million in the southeast where roughly half of all China’s online retail exporters are based. So when Shenzhen went into a six-day lockdown after a massive surge in Covid cases, it sent shockwaves through the world’s businesses. The restrictions have since widened to other major cities and provinces like Shanghai, Jilin and Guangzhou. Factories had to suspend production, and cities turned into ghost towns. … “We saw a 28.5 percent increase in the number of vessels waiting outside of the port of Yantian, which is a major export port to Europe and North America.”
Official death toll rises to 25. More than 340,000 cases have been reported since the outbreak began in March.
City authorities said severe restrictions would remain in place even in districts where Covid transmission has been brought to zero.
Four million people were at last allowed out of their homes.
Factories are returning to production in closed-loop systems. Tesla staff have reportedly been told to sleep on site.
The city pleaded for public cooperation with a massive new testing push. Some are refusing to join the lines for testing out of exhaustion or for fear it will put them at more risk of infection.
The IMF cut its forecast of Chinese economic growth owing to the shutdown and warned that the global flow of industrial goods might be disrupted. (Paywalled.)
The treatment of a 92-year-old Shanghai woman who was sent to quarantine in the dead of the night has caused outrage.
A Chinese delegation led by a veteran diplomat is visiting eight Central and Eastern European Countries this week. The goal, according to the CCP mouthpiece Global Times, is to “dismiss misunderstandings, especially over China’s stance on the Ukraine crisis.”
Complying with US sanctions, YouTube blocked the account of John Lee, the only candidate for the post of Hong Kong chief executive. Lee is backed by Beijing. He will be replacing Carrie Lam.
China’s UnionPay card payment system blocks Russia’s Sberbank. The Chinese payment system is afraid to cooperate with major Russian banks because of the risk of secondary sanctions. (In Russian.)
Xi Jinping railed against unilateral sanctions, such as those imposed on Russia and John Lee, deploring them as “long-arm jurisdiction.”
🇸🇧 THE DEAL THAT SHOCKED THE WORLD. A secret agreement that expands Chinese influence over the Solomon Islands has now been signed. What does it mean for the region?
The rumors started in August.
Chatter surfaced among the political class in Honiara that China and Solomon Islands were negotiating a security agreement which could allow Beijing to send military and police personnel to its new Pacific ally, and base naval vessels on the islands.
If the rumors proved to be true, it would be the first known bilateral security agreement between China and a country in the Pacific, a region that has become the centre of a geopolitical and strategic tug of war between China and the US and Australia in recent years. And if Australia’s gravest fears were realized, such an agreement could also allow China to establish a military base less than 2,000 kilometres from its eastern border. …
First, there’s the simple geography …
Should Chinese defense forces regularly visit the Solomons, it would give them a base of operations about 1,200 miles from the eastern coast of Australia. If you look at the map of Oceania above, the implications should become instantly clear. China would have access to a crucial location from which to broaden its ambit throughout the entire Pacific island archipelago. As a reminder, the capital, Honiara, is on an island called Guadalcanal.
“A lot of things change in warfare. Not geography.”
“The China-Solomon Islands security deal changes everything.” The deal has “become a prism through which all other components of Pacific geopolitics, indeed the geopolitics of the greater Indo-Pacific, will now be refracted.”
… Solomon Islands’ sovereignty would supposedly be protected by thinly detailed triggers and weak powers controlling Chinese intervention, such as the power of activation for the agreement and “consent” for Chinese naval visits being retained by the Solomon Islands’ government. Yet the inclusion of the phrase that supposedly gives both nations power to act “according to its own needs” has elevated concerns about the latitude this agreement offers China to expand its military power into the southwest Pacific. Also deeply concerning is that the agreement provides “legal and judicial immunity” for all Chinese personnel.
… Given all these pressures, it is not difficult to foresee a potential scenario where a conflict between the proxies of China and the US and its allies, could occur—with devastating effect—in the Solomon Islands. There is no question that security in the Solomon Islands is greatly undermined by this agreement, despite Sogavare’s assertions to the contrary.
… The upcoming 80th anniversary of the September 1942 Battle of Guadalcanal, which devastated US and Japanese military forces and cost many Solomon Islanders’ lives, is a deeply sobering reminder of the enduring strategic importance of the Solomon Islands. This is especially the case for Australia, which lies just over 3,200 kilometers away. Solomon Islands stretches over critical Australian sea-lane and communication routes. …
… From a wider geopolitical perspective, the security deal appears to be a direct response to the establishment or revival of larger Indo-Pacific security groupings. In particular, the AUKUS pact ruffled more than just a few feathers. Beijing, unsurprisingly, initially responded by calling the trilateral alliance callous, warning of the return of a “Cold War mentality” that undermines efforts for regional stability. Reports in mid-2020 that the US military was also seeking to augment its capabilities on Wake Island may have also contributed to Chinese concerns about being excluded from the region without some sort of counter-balancing policies.
Solomon Islands signed China security pact with “eyes open” despite criticism from US, Australia. …
The pact has become an Australian election issue, with the Opposition calling it the worst foreign policy failure since World War II. …
Jacinda Ardern questions the motives behind the pact. New Zealand foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta rejects the notion that it represents a foreign policy failure on the part of Australia or New Zealand. …
“It’s symbolic. The American embassy in Honiara, capital of the Solomon Islands, has been shuttered since 1993. Now, the US is scrambling to reopen as quickly as it can in the face of China’s increasingly successful campaign to tighten relations with the tiny but incredibly strategic island state. … ”
South Asia
🇮🇳 India
India’s coal shortage could spark stagflation. India’s power plants have only nine days’ worth of stock. Nearly 100 out of 172 plants have less than 25 percent the amount they’re supposed to keep in reserve.
The IMF cut India’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 8.2 percent, noting the impact of high oil prices and commodities on consumer demand and private investments. The IMF estimates that India’s current account deficit will widen to 3.1 percent.
India’s Defense Minister Minister Rajnath has urged US companies to take advantage of the policy initiatives taken by his government and carry out joint research and development, manufacturing, and maintenance of defense equipment:
“With increasing business, we aspire for increased investments by US companies in India. Making full use of the Industrial Security Agreement, we need to facilitate collaboration and indigenization of defense technology and boost the participation of US and Indian companies in each other’s defense supply chains. American companies are welcome to establish manufacturing facilities in India” …
… India’s defence procurement, which is heavily dependent on Russia, has come under pressure due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. With Russia’s growing proximity to China and changing geopolitics in the region, India has been attempting over the years to diversify its defense procurement engagement across the world and reduce its dependence on Russia.
🇵🇰 Pakistan’s new prime minister has appointed the economist and businessman Miftah Ismail as finance minister. He’s under pressure quickly to stop the country’s downward economic spiral and return to talks with the IMF.
🇦🇫 Afghanistan
Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen met with a French envoy in Doha to discuss “several issues,” including a recent decree on poppy cultivation. “If anyone violates the decree and cultivates poppy, their crop will be destroyed and the violator will be punished based on the Sharia law.”
Afghanistan school bombings: At least six people were killed and 11 more, including children, were injured when bombs blasted through schools in predominantly Hazara Shiite communities in Kabul,
“These reprehensible attacks on schools highlight the violence that Afghan people continue to face in their daily lives. It also shows that the Taliban, as the de-facto authorities, are failing to protect civilians, especially those from ethnic and religious minority groups, from harm.”
Southeast Asia
🇲🇲 Myanmar:
One out of every 100 citizens of Myanmar has been displaced since the junta seized power about 15 months ago. The total number of internal refugees is a staggering 912,700:
… for the first time, displacement in the northwest, where the military is carrying out a scorched earth campaign in Chin state and the regions of Sagaing and Magway, exceeded 300,000 people. Eastern Myanmar, which includes the embattled states of Shan, Kayah, and Kayin, also saw substantial displacement since the coup. … Junta troops killed at least 1,600 people, including some 100 children, since the coup, the UN office said. Many of the victims died in military airstrikes, artillery strikes or as the result of triggering landmines.
Myanmar’s junta has issued an “emergency alert” to all of its units across the country. Defectors say this means the junta is preparing for resistance attacks.
More than 20,000 people who fled territory held by Karen National Union rebels urgently need food and other aid. Fighting, which has raged in the area for months, has become even more intense.
Manila has suspended oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea as it tries to strike a deal with Beijing on a joint energy project.
“China is essentially trying to make the Philippines agree to joint exploration and development only on China’s terms. It’s coercion. The Philippines is folding to that pressure. That does not really bode well for the future of any exploration and development in the West Philippine Sea.”
Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta won a landslide victory in East Timor’s presidential election. This will be Ramos-Horta’s second term in office.
Vietnam may face US sanctions over its continuing military relations with Russia.
Vietnam, Moscow’s closest ally in Southeast Asia, has dismayed American officials by abstaining from UN General Assembly resolutions against Russia. This month, Hanoi was one of only 24 states to vote against Russia being kicked off the UN Human Rights Council.
Vietnam now finds itself in potentially hotter diplomatic water after Russian state media reported this week that Moscow is planning with Vietnamese defense officials to conduct new joint military exercises later this year.
Joe Biden has rescheduled a meeting with Southeast Asian leaders in Washington next month, but some of them won’t be coming:
Myanmar’s junta chief, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, won’t be welcome because of the military coup he launched a year ago. And Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who leaves office in June, is also expected to be a no-show. He has not visited Washington during his six years in office.
Middle East
🇮🇷 Iran
Iran seeks to increase exports to Russia:
It’s highly likely the Ukraine war will drag on and further sanctions will be slapped on Russia, the head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization Alireza Peymanpak said. He added that Tehran must use this opportunity to strengthen its trade ties with Moscow, noting that Iran and Russia signed a long-term agreement under which the Islamic Republic will export cooking oil, wheat and barley to the Russian federation. …
…. worries about spillover of extremism from Afghanistan.
… The attack on the shrine is just one example listed in an article from the Tasnim News Agency this week that weaves a complex conspiracy alleging that the US and Western countries want to continue to work with former Afghan militia leaders and warlords to keep a foothold in the region.
Saudi Arabia has reduced its US Treasury holdings by 36.7 percent in two years.
How serious is the threat of an ISIS resurgence in Syria?
Since its territorial defeat in Iraq in 2017 and Syria in 2019, Daesh had appeared to be a spent force, its leaders hunted and forced into hiding, its followers either detained, dead or disenchanted, and its once-sizeable war chest depleted or out of reach.
That is until January this year, when remnants of the group launched a massive and highly sophisticated attack on a prison in northeast Syria where thousands of its former combatants were being held under guard by the SDF.
With the West now focused single-mindedly on Ukraine, and the Syrian regime’s Russian allies preoccupied with activities closer to home, those on the ground in Syria warn that the threat posed by Daesh is far from over and that a resurgence could easily occur while the world’s back is turned.
Technology
Holographic doctors are real, and they’re coming to a space station near you. NASA has sent a flight surgeon aboard the ISS using a combination of 3D capture and augmented reality technology.
Metaverse museums could revolutionize tourism and education. “Imagine being able to explore the history of a famous painting or historic location, not just as images on a screen but as a completely immersive experience that unfolds right before your eyes.”
US, China race to militarize the metaverse.
Global
The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. Economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022. A severe double-digit drop in GDP for Ukraine and a large contraction in Russia are more than likely, along with worldwide spillovers through commodity markets, trade, and financial channels.
Even as the war reduces growth, it will add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, with vulnerable populations—particularly in low-income countries— most affected. Elevated inflation will complicate the trade-offs central banks face between containing price pressures and safeguarding growth. Interest rates are expected to rise as central banks tighten policy, exerting pressure on emerging market and developing economies.
Moreover, many countries have limited fiscal policy space to cushion the impact of the war on their economies. The invasion has contributed to economic fragmentation as a significant number of countries sever commercial ties with Russia and risks derailing the post-pandemic recovery. It also threatens the rules-based frameworks that have facilitated greater global economic integration and helped lift millions out of poverty.
In addition, the conflict adds to the economic strains wrought by the pandemic. Although many parts of the world appear to be moving past the acute phase of the Covid19 crisis, deaths remain high, especially among the unvaccinated. Moreover, recent lockdowns in key manufacturing and trade hubs in China will likely compound supply disruptions elsewhere.
The CCP is very, very disappointed in you
“Ghost” of the Cold War still haunts Washington:
… More than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the ghost of the era’s Cold War mentality still haunts the White House, Capitol Hill, the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency. Some US politicians have always observed the international situation from the perspectives of zero-sum games and ideological confrontation, attempting to start a new Cold War.
The current crisis and war in Eastern Europe reflect the cruelty and distortion of the powerful force behind this conventional mindset. Ukraine, which should be a bridge for communication between the East and the West, was gradually turned into an outpost for confrontation between major powers. …
If the US still chooses to stay stuck in the old days of colonial expansion and hold onto its antiquated Cold War mentality and zero-sum game mindset, not to mention being a trouble-maker for peaceful development around the world, it will eventually end up in the dustbin of history.
“Dustbin of history?” That’s the kind of scolding we used to get back when Trotsky was a pup!—Claire
Mark your calendar
Space is limited, so please RSVP before May 12. We’ll read through chapter six in May and finish the book in June:
Do they have the concept of irony in China, or is this just an example of how humor does not translate well? That last paragraph is a field of confusion.