Is this war making things better or worse?

Here's a simple three-part test.

On Thursday, the war in Iran entered its fourth week. The head of the International Energy Agency said that the war in the Gulf represented “the greatest global energy security threat in history.” Economists from Europe to Asia warned of inflation, shortages, rationing, and recession, and some thought that too optimistic: Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, said the fallout would be “worse than we can imagine.” With the Hormuz strangled, supply chains snarled, energy and insurance markets in chaos, fertilizer shipments blocked, and famine a growing concern, the Trump administration judged it an excellent moment to assemble before the cameras to perform a cabinet meeting.