Marco Rubio shakes hands with Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia. “The photograph is a record of national immorality, though a triumph of sorts for Secretary Little Marco who has become the Cuban Ribbentrop grinning with the Russian bear. This sinister photograph is historic because the betrayal is epic. It is the preface to global disaster that will be sold to the American public as “Peace In Our Time.”— Steve Schmidt.
Below is a collection of articles worthy of your attention. I have much more to say about this, but will take me a few days to work out all my thoughts.
The United States and Russia moved toward a head-spinning reset of their relationship on Tuesday, agreeing to work together on ending the Ukraine war, financial investment and re-establishing normal relations. The meeting between senior officials from both countries was a striking display of bonhomie after three years of American efforts to isolate Moscow for its 2022 invasion.
After more than four hours of talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that both sides had agreed to work on a peace settlement for Ukraine as well as to explore “the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians,” both geopolitically and economically.
“We weren’t just listening to each other, but we heard each other,” Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said. “I have reason to believe that the American side started to better understand our positions.”
Trump’s appeasement of Putin is a disgraceful surrender to Russia, an outright betrayal of Ukraine, and a stark warning to the world that America under Trump is no longer the defender of democracy but a willing collaborator with a terrorist state. …
For Trump, “peace” means rewarding genocidal aggression.
And make no mistake. The idea of negotiations is absurd to begin with. Russia invaded sovereign Ukraine in 2014 and expanded with a full-scale invasion in 2022 with the stated intention of eliminating all Ukrainians and stealing land. Russia can stop the war at its choosing by simply crossing back over the border.
Trump’s behavior in recent weeks has confirmed the worst fears about his foreign policy: that he is not merely indifferent to the suffering of Ukraine, but wants to be an active enabler of Russian expansionism.
In a recent call with Putin, Trump effusively praised Russia’s “great history” and expressed his desire for the US and Russia to “work together,” as if the ongoing invasion of Ukraine were an unfortunate misunderstanding rather than a brutal bloody war of conquest. His public comments reek of deference to Putin, much like his infamous performance in Helsinki in 2018, when he stood beside the Russian KGB dictator and accepted his lies over US intelligence agencies. And today’s summit was more about whitewashing Russia’s atrocities and strengthening US relations with Russia than addressing Ukraine’s plight. To top off the absurdity, Trump’s team even invited Russian spies back to the embassy in DC, further highlighting their willingness to disregard national security in favor of appeasing the Kremlin.
From day one, Trump’s return to power has been a gift to Russia, as he systematically dismantles America’s defenses against foreign influence and corruption. He and Musk gutted USAID—a long-standing Soviet and Russian goal—while preparing to purge the FBI and key intelligence agencies. Attorney General Pam Bondi disbanded the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force, exposing US elections to unchecked foreign interference, and halted enforcement of FARA, allowing foreign operatives to operate freely in the US She also shut down Task Force KleptoCapture, ensuring Russian oligarchs can launder money through the US financial system without consequence. Meanwhile, Trump is purging national security agencies of career professionals, replacing them with loyalists, while Musk expands his hacking of sensitive government data, despite his ties to Russia and China.
For those familiar with Trump’s negotiation tactics, this pattern is all too familiar. In Afghanistan, he handed the Taliban exactly what they wanted—agreeing to a US withdrawal timetable even as US intelligence revealed Russia was paying bounties to Taliban militants for killing American soldiers. Dismissing it as "fake news," he attempted to host the Taliban at Camp David before public outrage forced him to back down. Now, he is doing the same with Putin, granting concessions without securing any leverage. This isn’t the “art of the deal”—it’s the art of surrender.
Trump’s misguided diplomacy is no path to peace—if anything, it hands Putin a strategic advantage. He will use these talks to stall for time while intensifying his assault on Ukraine’s infrastructure, economy, and political stability— all while toasting champagne to America’s growing hostility toward its closest allies in Europe.
Meanwhile, Trump’s rhetoric on Ukraine’s presidential elections echoes Russian propaganda, signaling that he may actively promote Kremlin-backed narratives to further destabilize the country.
Russian officials hope to take advantage of President Donald Trump’s eagerness to end the war in Ukraine to secure the most favorable deal for Moscow possible, Russian government and diplomatic sources familiar with the matter told The Moscow Times.
In a stunning diplomatic turn three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine effectively froze relations with Washington, senior US and Russian officials held marathon talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Beyond the war in Ukraine, the delegations discussed a possible summit between Trump and President Vladimir Putin as well as potential improvements in bilateral relations that Moscow is keen to explore. Putin has instructed his envoys to “demonstrate the most amicable and, in some aspects, complimentary attitude toward their American counterparts and President Donald Trump personally” in order to extract maximum benefits from the upcoming summit, a Russian diplomatic source told The Moscow Times. [My emphasis.]1
… Among the key figures expected to participate are Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin (for negotiations on intelligence sharing and counterterrorism), Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov (arms control and strategic stability) and Putin’s Middle East envoy Mikhail Bogdanov. [Like taking candy from a baby.]
… The Moscow Times spoke to several Russian officials and diplomats to gain insight into the Kremlin’s goals and expectations for Trump. The Kremlin believes the Trump administration is focused on securing quick and dramatic foreign policy victories—achievements that, in their view, “are not always carefully thought through.” Trump, officials believe, is looking for a symbolic moment that would allow him to claim he personally ended the war in Ukraine. Moscow, in turn, sees this as an opportunity to secure long-sought advantages.
… For Russia, the priority is restoring full bilateral dialogue with Washington, expanding discussions far beyond Ukraine to allow the Kremlin to reassert its national interests on the world stage—a long-standing ambition of Putin’s. Among Moscow’s key demands is the full restoration of diplomatic operations, including regaining access to Russian diplomatic compounds in Maryland and New York. The Obama administration seized these properties in late 2016, citing concerns that they were being used for intelligence gathering. Russia also seeks to revive frozen communication channels on issues such as arms control, nuclear nonproliferation and strategic stability.
Additionally, the Kremlin is pressing for partial sanctions relief, including lifting restrictions on specific Russian officials and unfreezing Russian assets. Since the start of the invasion, the U.S. has blocked at least US$6 billion in Russian foreign currency reserves. “Trump doesn’t publicly discuss these matters—he doesn’t seem particularly interested in them—but they are crucial for Putin. There’s a belief that agreements on such matters could be achievable,” one source said. The Kremlin is counting on the personal “chemistry” between Trump and Putin to work in its favor, sources sai
Ending the war in Ukraine is a central issue on the summit agenda. Moscow hopes to secure a settlement on terms similar to those it demanded before launching its invasion: Ukraine’s non-aligned status, the installation of a pro-Russian government, a drastic reduction of Ukraine’s military forces, and official recognition of Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk regions as Russian territory.“Ukraine, territorial recognition, ‘demilitarization,’ ‘denazification’ — including elections that bring pro-Russian figures to power—and lifting sanctions. That’s the minimum that Putin would like to have,” said former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who resigned from Russia’s diplomatic mission to the UN in Geneva in protest against the invasion.
In a potential bargaining move, the Kremlin may attempt to convince Trump that Moscow is willing to scale back its ties with China in exchange for concessions from Washington, Bondarev told The Moscow Times. “The Americans will be strung along with talk about a potential reassessment of Moscow’s relationship with Beijing,” Bondarev said.
Several Russian officials and diplomats expressed cautious optimism after Tuesday’s talks in Riyadh. “I’ve waited so long for this! Finally. What a wonderful gift for my upcoming anniversary,” one Russian government official told The Moscow Times, adding that he is hopeful about the negotiations’ outcome. “It’s clear that our American partners are eager to wrap up the Ukraine war—and quickly. Trump, in particular, is motivated,” a retired Russian diplomat said.
This urgency explains the rapid pace of engagement following Trump’s January inauguration compared to the protracted preparations for the 2021 Geneva summit between Putin and President Joe Biden. “I remember how that meeting was prepared—it took months of intense work at different levels, including missions and exchanges of position papers. Trump wants to move much faster and, at this stage, seems unconcerned with the details,” a Russian diplomat said.
Zelensky: “It appears Russia and the US are preparing an ultimatum for Ukraine, talking about Ukraine without Ukraine. We didn’t accept ultimatums in 2022, when the situation was much more serious and nobody was helping us. I have no intention of accepting any ultimatums now.”
Many in the democratic world have been stunned by the rush of the Trump administration to abruptly end the international condemnation and isolation of Russia, welcoming it to the negotiating table in Riyadh on February 18 and offering up preliminary concessions—while Moscow promised nothing in return.
Unsurprisingly in Moscow, the new capital of global despotism, the shampanskoyecorks were popping like machine guns. … Russian state TV hasn’t seen as many sneers and smiles—often exploding into open and uproarious laughter—in the studio since the Trump-Putin 2018 meeting in Helsinki. Epithets like “unimaginable,” “sensational,” “amazing” and “unbelievable” are flying all over the Russian airwaves. State TV host Evgeny Popov surmised that Trump has taken a buzzsaw to Europe and has decided to do Russia’s job himself.
As the US-Russia talks started in Riyadh on February 18, the morning broadcast of the state TV program 60 Minutes, hosted by Olga Skabeeva, excitedly noted: “This is the beginning of negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine. Kyiv was officially dropped overboard.” Alexei Fenenko, Professor at the Moscow State University’s School of World Politics, mentioned that the Russian state media is in a state of euphoria, but cautioned everyone that these talks might take months before yielding any results. State media coverage noted that Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief, was included in the talks to appeal to Trump’s business savvy, by highlighting how much money American businesses have allegedly lost because of sanctions that were imposed against Russia. The end of sanctions is a key Kremlin demand. …
Moscow’s talking heads are in awe of the speed with which the transatlantic relations are unraveling from Trump’s new policies. They continue to be thrilled with his cabinet picks, although the already-considerable popularity of new Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is now being surpassed by that for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. During One’s Own Truth on Valentine’s Day, multiple pundits described Hegseth as their favorite spokesman in the Trump administration for promising concessions to Russia even before the negotiations had started.
In return, Moscow plans to offer nothing of value. On February 17, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that there can be no thought of territorial concessions by Russia. In fairness, there is little reason to offer anything since the US has not demanded anything. The Riyadh talks ended with another concession as Washington agreed to resume high-level diplomatic representation.
Top state TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov often reiterates that Russia does not truly want to negotiate and doesn’t intend to stop its war of aggression. During the latest broadcast of Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, he insisted that the main thing Russian troops want is not to be interfered with in their campaign of conquest. Feasting on a (probably misconstrued) Hesgeth statement about NATO’s Article 5, the propagandists zeroed in on what Russia should do next if Europe loses its US security umbrella—attacking European capitals with no fear of retribution. Appearing on The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, political scientist Sergey Mikheyev said: “In this situation, we should make it clear for the Europeans: now we can really strike Brussels, London or Paris because we can forget about Article 5. You can forget the notion that Americans would step in on your behalf.” Solovyov replied, “I like the way you think.”
Russian experts often acknowledge that America’s alliances were what made it great and that disrupting them had to be one of Moscow’s top priorities. With Trump back in office, there is an unmistakable sense of satisfaction as observers see what they believe to be the United States taking a sledgehammer to its old ties with European allies. The style employed by the representatives of the new US administration in making clear their disdain or even outright contempt for America’s best friends is just the icing on the cake for Moscow’s mouthpieces.
Appearing on Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, the host and experts said that America is using the language of street thuggery to its European allies. Solovyov praised the blistering attack against European democracies by US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference—describing it as Vance punching Europeans in the nose and repeatedly slapping them in the face. Solovyov also noted that Vance simply reiterated what Russian officials and state TV pundits have been saying for years. …
So far, the upcoming negotiations are being perceived as the sweetest possible bargain imaginable — where one side gives up everything and the other side nothing at all.
“A lasting and long-term viable resolution is impossible without a comprehensive consideration of security issues on the continent,”" Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Of course. You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push.
Trump just gave a press conference in which he mocked Zelensky while repeating the Kremlin lie that Ukraine started the war:
Rubio, then and now
The old Marco Rubio:
Letter from Rubio in his role as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Rubio was a coauthor of the Senate’s five-part investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Marco Rubio, today:
What Dugin thinks
Putin’s Nazi-Bolshevik chief ideologist, Alexandr Dugin, rejoices. His vision, at last, is coming true:
Alexander Dugin asserts that the West no longer exists as a unified entity, with Trump and Putin reshaping the world order through a conservative revolution, where Canada and Greenland may fall under US control, parts of Eastern Europe belong to Russia, and Europe must either become great or disappear.
It is remarkable that President Putin and President Trump have finally spoken over the phone. This is a true breakthrough because the leaders of two great powers have initiated a dialogue. Naturally, the issues they discussed pertained to the global order. It is not fitting for the leaders of two great powers to speak of minor matters without first defining new parameters for the world order.
From Conservative Revolution to the Redistribution of the World
The fact is that a genuine conservative revolution has taken place in the West. Trump and his allies have radically altered the course of the collective West by 180 degrees. Moreover, the collective West as an entity simply no longer exists. Instead, there are now the United States—Great America—which has become great in the short period of Trump’s tenure, and, for the time being, there is still liberal, globalist Europe. But this is a regrettable misunderstanding; Europe must be brought in line with the broader multipolar model to which both Trump and Putin agree. As do Xi Jinping, the great ruler of Great China, and Modi, the great ruler of Great India. Therefore, Europe must either become great, or it will cease to exist altogether, and we will forget about it.
Today’s conversation between the two architects of the new world order carries immense significance. At the same time, Putin’s Russia remains unchanged, remaining the same as before. In fact, in a certain sense, it becomes a role model for the new Great America. Essentially, we are now moving in the same direction; only the Americans are doing so swiftly, with their characteristic brilliance, while we proceed gradually and carefully. Accordingly, I believe that the foreseeable future of the modern world is an alliance between Putin’s Russia and Trump’s America. However, before that happens, the most critical contentious issue must be resolved—the question of Ukraine.
Ukraine is Ours. Period.
Ukraine must belong to us and no one else. Not to Europe and not to America. At the same time, it is entirely conceivable that Canada will become the 51st state of the US—we have no objections. Or that Greenland will become American—we have no objections. And even if Western Europe becomes American, we probably won’t object too much either. As Putin once said, the European elites are merely puppies wagging their tails before their American master. Well, let them wag—it is ultimately of no concern to us. But Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, and part of Eastern Europe definitively belong to us in the new map of global redistribution. There are no questions about this.
As for the Middle East, Russia is taking a course towards establishing a union state with Iran. In this regard, we indeed find ourselves in contradiction with the United States. So what? It’s not a big deal. Yes, the Russia-Iran Union State will oppose the US-Israel alliance. But in the end, we will inevitably find common formulas for a truce and zones of mutual influence in this confrontation.
Ukraine, however, should play no role in this equation whatsoever. Ukraine is ours—a part of Russia, period. Belarus is our ally, period. Iran is our union state, period. From there, we will construct a more nuanced balance of relations. And if Europe ceases to exist as a subject, then that is their own doing—they brought it upon themselves. I repeat: either Europe will be great, or it will simply cease to exist altogether.
Trump has meanwhile posted a link on Truth Social to this utterly bizarre article. I fear we’re watching a pretext as it’s manufactured.
Musk
Not much doubt where his loyalties lie:
Hegseth and Waltz, then and now
Pete Hegseth and incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz in 2022: “Putin will only stop when he meets cold hard steel and military might. We must provide sophisticated weapons to Ukraine. We must support Zelensky in an effort to WIN and drive Russia completely out of Ukraine.”
Munich
🎧 Betrayal:Trump talks to Putin and US says it is “no longer a guarantor” of Europe’s defense:
Today, we discuss what many are calling a “turning point” in the war and in Western foreign policy, as the Trump administration declares definitively the US will no longer be a primary guarantor of Europe's security, and seeks a deal with Russia over the heads of Kyiv and its allies. We hear the reaction from Brussels and Ukraine, and consider the options for those Western nations that remain committed to Ukrainian independence.
The week the US shook the world.The Munich Security Conference, held from February 14 to 16, saw a fracturing of the transatlantic relationship.
Shaken, worried and sometimes outraged, the hundreds of representatives of Europe’s diplomatic and military elite who gathered at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend left the snow-covered Bavarian capital on Sunday, February 16, with the impression that they had lived through three days that had shaken the world. Or at least their world, that of an ironclad transatlantic relationship, a pillar of the international system since WWII, which suddenly appears deeply fractured. The Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, tried to sum up this feeling with a nod to Lenin, to whom he attributed this phrase: "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. To say that history between Europe and the United States has accelerated over the past week would be an understatement.
… The east-west ice age that began after Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2008 is over. President Donald Trump has made it clear that his aim is to bring the Kremlin in from the cold. Never mind the past, look at the future is the new motto. That makes life easier for America’s foes—and a lot worse for allies. Past sacrifice and shared values count for little in this new, transactional world.
Emotional responses are understandable. Europeans should rightly feel shame for their complacency and cowardice. They should grieve for Ukraine’s sacrifice. They should be angry at their leaders for getting them into this mess. And they should be fearful of their fate in a new might-is-right era. Having succumbed to nuclear blackmail, we must live with the consequences: aggression now and proliferation soon.
Many will also feel puzzlement. If the administration persists in this zero-sum, theatrical approach to foreign policy, it will impose heavy costs on the United States, badly denting the deterrence of the Chinese Communist Party. Few outsiders feel they are seeing America made great again.
Europeans may criticize the American president if they wish (though it is probably wise not to). But they should not blame him for their own mistakes. This is a war on Europe’s borders. It was Europe that outsourced its defense to the Americans. It was Europeans who were scared of all-out confrontation with Russia. Faced with even modest costs, their unity and willpower frayed. Putin, for all the colossal costs of the war, can keep going. Without the Americans, Europe can’t.
Fear can easily become panic. European leaders are stuck. Alone, they cannot provide a credible military force needed to secure post-ceasefire Ukraine. To provide the sort of security offered to West Germany in the Cold War, will require hundreds of thousands of troops, with air defenses, logistics, long-range strikes—the lot. But if that force is not credible, it is a sitting duck for Russian provocations that will shred deterrence for all of Europe.
If any Ukrainian ceasefire is not credibly secured, then Ukraine will be an economic, political, and security nightmare, a traumatized wreck on the EU’s borders. And even limited efforts to support Ukraine will further weaken the already flimsy defenses on NATO’s border with Russia.
But admiring these problems will not solve them. Europeans should remember their size and strength. Including non-EU countries, like Britain, they have a US$25 trillion national income and a 600 million population. They enjoy living standards and public services that others (including many Americans) find luxurious. Europeans can afford to fix their own security if they want to.
We need practical suggestions. Mine is a new bank to raise hundreds of billions of euros to rebuild defense stockpiles. The project already has Polish government support, with encouraging reactions from other governments (France and Britain) and from the European Commission. Provisionally named the Rearmament Bank, it would be modeled on the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, which helped the hugely successful rebuilding of ex-communist Europe after 1989. That era was fuelled by hope. Now emotions are bleaker. Use them.
“Fuck Trump and his deal.” US veterans fighting for Zelensky’s foreign legion call president a “coward” who won’t stand up to Putin:
“Fuck Trump and his shitty supposed peace deal,” said Ryan O’Leary, an Iraq war veteran who leads Chosen Company, one of the largest foreign volunteer units in Ukraine. “Any peace deal is ultimately up to Ukrainians alone, who should be included directly in talks. Neither Trump nor his administration should have any say in how the war ends. Only the soldiers and the Ukrainian people should have that say, not some jackass and his jackass cabinet members sitting behind their white picket-fenced houses on a golf course.”
Ex-US soldiers are believed to make up the largest national contingent of Western military volunteers in Ukraine, with at least 50 dying in combat and many more coming home seriously injured. They regard Mr Trump’s concessions as squandering both their own military sacrifices and those of their Ukrainian comrades—a sentiment reflected in their distinctly undiplomatic language. “Trump is a coward, sucking Putin’s dick,” said Charles Carter, another US volunteer, who previously served with America’s 101st Airborne Division. He said he regretted that Mr Trump had not been shot dead by the assassin whose bullet nicked his ear during a campaign appearance last July. “The fact that the bullet missed his fucking face by only an inch is a worldwide travesty.”
… Among the keenest US advocates for Kyiv’s cause is Alex Drueke, an Iraq veteran from Alabama, who was captured by Russian forces during his first mission as a volunteer in Ukraine in June 2022. He spent nearly four months in captivity, during which time he was beaten repeatedly, subjected to torture by electric shock, and told he would be executed as a mercenary. Since his release as part of a prisoner swap deal, he has given speeches to schools, community groups and policy forums, trying to convince Americans not to withdraw support for Kyiv. …“My advice to Ukraine is to fight to the last woman and child, as Putin is going to wipe Ukraine off the map anyway. I say that, even if I have to go back and fight myself.”
US/Russia three-stage peace proposal would force new Ukraine elections: foreign diplomatic sources. The US and Russia are proposing a three-stage peace plan, according to multiple foreign diplomatic sources close to the talks in Saudi Arabia. The plan includes a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, then signing of a final agreement. Multiple foreign diplomatic sources tell FOX the US and Russia consider holding new elections in Ukraine to be a key condition for the success of the settlement process. This piece is certain to stir controversy, as Russia does not hold true elections and the Ukrainians balk at the prospect of installing a pro-Russia puppet president.
A US source familiar with the negotiations softens this claim—telling me people are “floating” the elections piece and “it may be part of future talks, but not today.”
The White House has NOT YET COMMENTED—but is expected to soon. Ukraine also disputes the notion that Zelenskyy’s popularity is too low to win reelection, even without Russian interference, citing his refusal to sign anything in Munich. Multiple foreign diplomatic sources provided this readout from the Ukrainian side: “Putin assesses the probability of electing a puppet president as quite high and is also convinced that any candidate other than the current President of Ukraine will be more flexible and ready for negotiations and concessions. In turn, Donald Trump is ready to accept any election result, including the possibility of election of a pro-Russian puppet. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin consider the chances of the current President of Ukraine being reelected as low.”
Olga Lautman: “Imagine the terrorist state who has had a dwarf dictator sitting for over 25 years demanding Ukraine hold elections as Russia carries out a genocidal war.”
Reporters at The Telegraph claimed to have obtained a copy of the draft agreement that stipulates resources far beyond rare earth minerals, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed).” Under the proposal, the US will take 50 percent of the money Ukraine earns from mining its resources and 50 percentof the value of any new licenses Ukraine gives to other companies to mine in the future via “the establishment of a Reconstruction Investment Fund,” with “a lien on such revenues” in favor of the US, The Telegraph reported.
… Ukrainian news outlet European Prava, citing “Ukrainian and American sources,” said Zelensky was pressured to sign the document in order to have an audience with Vance, which ultimately took place without Zelensky signing the agreement.
European reactions
Europeans are right to be angry with Donald Trump, but they should also be furious with themselves. The betrayal of Ukraine is a final warning to the UK and its continental allies to put a lot more energy and money into rebuilding their defenses:
It was, Sir Keir Starmer told members of his inner circle, one of his most meaningful visits abroad. In the middle of last month, he flew to Kyiv to double-down on the commitment to back Ukraine’s struggle for freedom, a pledge he first made a defining feature of his leadership when Labour was in opposition. Hands were warmly clasped with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wailing air raid sirens greeted a Russian drone attack, financial promises were made, and signatures were inscribed on a 100-year partnership treaty. The prime minister solemnly intoned the western mantra about backing the resistance to Russian tyranny “for as long as it takes” for Ukraine to become “free and thriving once again”.
All of which now sounds for the birds, thanks to Donald Trump. It was with his trademark contempt for his country’s traditional allies that the US president blindsided them by announcing that he had initiated peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin over the heads of Ukraine and the European members of Nato. The UK received no more warning of this bombshell than anyone else. So much for the vaunted “special relationship”. The US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, then unleashed another punch to the solar plexus of European security by publicly declaring that Ukraine would have to accept the surrender of large chunks of its territory and should forget about becoming a member of Nato. The future defense of Ukraine, he went on to declare, would be down to Europe, because the US wouldn’t be sending any of its troops to sustain a security guarantee.
Humiliated and anguished, European leaders are crying “betrayal”. The UK government is not adding its voice to that charge in public, but it privately agrees. There is astonishment that the US president blithely conceded to several Russian demands before negotiations have even begun. “What happened to the Art of the Deal?” asks one flabbergasted minister. There is disgust at the Kremlin’s undisguised glee with what it interprets as a vindication of the barbarity it has inflicted on its neighbor. There is fear of the consequences for the Baltic states and others by rewarding Russian predation. There is horror at Trump’s subsequent suggestion that Putin be invited to rejoin the G7, as if the bloody slate of war crimes perpetrated by the Russians can simply be wiped clean.
A hideous idea doing the rounds is that Trump will make a state visit to Moscow timed to coincide with the May Day parade, which celebrates Russia’s military. What a grotesque spectacle: the supposed leader of the free world sitting with the Kremlin’s tyrant watching a march across Red Square by the army that has committed so many atrocities in Ukraine.
The biggest surprise is that so many people claim to be surprised. We knew that this US president despises America’s historic allies among the European democracies as he disdains the architecture of international security that his predecessors built. His geopolitics is one in which carnivorous great powers cut deals with each other and the smaller ones fall into line or get crushed underfoot. If you are genuinely shocked by these developments, I can only assume you haven’t been paying much attention.
The perils are acute. A dictated peace will embolden Putin and other predators by sanctifying the redrawing of international borders by force. Were the US in concert with Russia to dismember Ukraine over the protests of Kyiv and European capitals, the transatlantic alliance would be mortally fractured.
Europeans are right to be angry with Trump, but they should also be furious with themselves. They are to blame for leaving their continent so vulnerable to this danger-infused turn in world events. Trump has always had a point when he’s railed about Uncle Sam being treated as Uncle Sucker and he isn’t the first US president to tell Europe to take more responsibility for its security, even if none before have been so brutal about it. Under the lazy assumption that the US would always ultimately have their backs, European countries have spent too little on their own defense. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was often described as a wake-up call, but too much of Europe responded by hitting the snooze button. Three years on, the latest authoritative report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies finds that Moscow is feeding more resources into its war machine than the entirety of non-Russian Europe is spending on defense. Some frontline NATO countries, notably Poland, have ramped up their military budgets in response to the ravaging of Ukraine. The Poles grasp that the cost of deterrence is worth paying to avoid the far greater price of leaving yourself exposed to devastation. Others are still asleep. Last year, eight of Nato’s 32 members were still failing to meet the modest obligation to spend at least 2 percent of GDP.
… He thinks he’s a great deal-maker. He never stops trumpeting his brilliance. Yet his North Korea “deal of the century” was a fiasco. He handed Afghanistan to the Taliban on a plate. Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu runs rings around him. Now Trump-Pyle proposes another rubbish deal—selling out Ukraine. America’s very own surrender monkey is Vladimir Putin’s useful idiot. No matter how officials spin it, Trump’s concessions, made before ceasefire talks with Russia even begin, are calamitous, primarily for Ukraine but also for Europe’s security, the transatlantic alliance, and other vulnerable targets, such as Taiwan. As stated, Trump’s giveaways—accepting the loss of sovereign Ukrainian territory to Russian aggression, denying NATO membership to Kyiv, withholding US security guarantees and troops— are shameful appeasement, amounting to betrayal.
It was Putin, remember, who launched an unprovoked, murderous full-scale invasion three years ago. But Trump suggests that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s brave, battered people are somehow to blame. He even regurgitates Kremlin calls for fresh elections in Kyiv. Such hypocritical cant from a regime that routinely subverts other countries’ polls is beyond sickening. But Trump the duplicitous dupe willingly buys it. Putin surely cannot believe his luck. By chatting chummily on the phone for 90 minutes, praising Russia’s “genius” tyrant for his “common sense,” and inviting him to a Saudi summit, Trump rehabilitated a pariah and pulled the rug from under NATO allies. Putin gave nothing back. He thinks he’s winning, on the battlefield, politically and diplomatically. He’s right. Worse, Moscow continues to demand that any lasting deal address “structural issues”. These include Ukraine’s disarmament, non-aligned status, the “denazification” of its leadership, and even its existence as an independent state, which Putin abhors. Russia wants to re-order Europe’s security architecture, shorthand for weakening, dividing and pushing back NATO.
… The Americans have shattered NATO’s united front on Ukraine. They have broken their word. They have undermined Zelensky and leading supporters—Britain, Germany’s Olaf Scholz, Poland’s Donald Tusk and Kyiv’s allies in the Baltic republics and Scandinavia, all of whom put their trust, wrongly, it transpires, in US leadership.
… The global ramifications of last week’s watershed American capitulation will be widely felt. China will be emboldened by this spectacular, self-harming rupture inside the western alliance. It’s probably fair to say an invasion of Taiwan, threatened by President Xi Jinping, has moved appreciably closer. Russia’s rogue allies, Iran and North Korea, will also relish western disarray. … America’s reputation as guarantor of peace, security and the UN-charter-based rule of law is shot. It’s a red letter day for the axis of autocrats and authoritarians everywhere. The Trump doctrine has been unveiled: might makes right, the weak go to the wall.
Donald Trump’s appeasement of Vladimir Putin makes Neville Chamberlain look like a principled, courageous realist. At least Chamberlain was trying to prevent a major European war, whereas Trump is acting in the middle of one. … The next step Trump proposes is in effect a new Yalta. … In this case, his proposal is that the US and Russia should decide the fate of Ukraine with marginal if any involvement of Ukraine or other European countries. ... For in the brave new world of Trump and Putin, might is right and territorial expansion is what great powers do, be it Russia to Ukraine, the US to Canada and Greenland—or China to Taiwan.
… For a few weeks after Trump’s election we had a faint hope that when it came to Ukraine his administration would follow its proclaimed motto of “peace through strength,” understanding that strength is the only language Putin comprehends. Now we see that Trump not only bullies his country’s friends but sucks up to his country’s enemies. This so-called strongman is actually a weak man when it comes to confronting the hostile authoritarians of this world. …
The American government, for so long insistent on respecting Ukrainian sovereignty, has abandoned this formal position and unilaterally declared that Ukraine will not revert to the situation before 2014. It is fair to say, as Mr Hegseth asserts, that recovering Crimea and the most eastern parts of Ukraine is no longer a practical possibility, if only because Mr Trump regards it as too expensive. However, it should be the starting point for any nation that is a victim of aggression to have its formal rights stated—and not to have the legal claim to its own lands obliterated before anything is offered in return, such as future security guarantees.
With no matching concessions from President Putin, Ukraine has been left in an unsustainable and weak position. Even if Ukraine’s future as an independent sovereign state could only be assured if there is some form of American presence on the ground—or a solemn guarantee—both such options have been ruled out already by the United States, much to the delight of Moscow. … The betrayal of Ukraine that is now underway is also a betrayal of America’s friends and allies in Europe. If Ukraine is effectively indefensible, for lack of American support, then Europe as a whole is far weaker. It further undermines NATO, already being treated as a purely contingent and transactional obligation by President Trump.
In a chilling address at the Munich Security Conference, Mr Hegseth stated: “We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.” That cannot inspire confidence among European allies—it clearly signals a running down of the American presence in Europe.
… This is not “peace through strength,” but a surrender. In stark contrast to his warm words about President Putin, Mr Trump has said nothing about President Zelensky except to point to his supposed unpopularity. He is treating Ukraine as no more than a future source of rare earth minerals and other resources—military aid now “secured” by claims on Ukraine’s assets. Perversely, though, Mr Trump doesn’t seem in any rush to protect America’s newly gained financial interests.
It is all profoundly depressing. It seems very clear now that Ukraine will be dismembered by Russia and America, with the Ukrainian government reduced to a spectator. The historical precedents are pitiful. There are awful echoes of president Emil Hacha of Czechoslovakia being reduced to a Nazi puppet in 1938 as his country was carved up, or the way president Nguyen Van Thieu had to swallow the inevitable collapse of South Vietnam after his abandonment by Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger in 1973. More recently we have the sellout of Afghanistan by Mr. Trump in his first term, followed by chaotic withdrawal under Joe Biden. Ukraine too seems likely to suffer a similar fate, sooner or later. The rest of Europe may well wonder how far America can be relied upon to honor its obligations, legal, political—and moral.
…“It feels like Ukraine is being screwed,” said Litovchenko, a personal trainer who was born in Kyiv and has stayed in the city throughout the three years of full-scale war. Believing the prospect of a Ukrainian defeat to be closer after Trump’s call and statements on Wednesday, she thought for the first time that she perhaps ought to leave, for the sake of her daughter. “But then, leave and go where? Europe is most certainly going to be next. Go to Australia? I don’t know. I feel angry and betrayed.”
Anger and betrayal were common emotions among those questioned on the streets of central Kyiv on Thursday. In the three months since Donald Trump’s election win, many in Ukraine held on to a hope that things would not be as bad as some predicted under the new president. … Maybe Trump’s chaotic behavior would somehow produce a black swan event that would swing the conflict in Ukraine’s favor.
On Wednesday evening, it seemed these hopes were exposed as illusions. News of Trump’s long phone call with Putin filtered through to Kyiv, followed by reports of his subsequent press conference, during which Trump rubbished the idea that Ukraine would be an equal partner in potential talks and even appeared to suggest that Russia may have a right to hold on to some seized Ukrainian territory because “they took a lot of land and they fought for that land.” Making no references to shared values or the need to stand up to Russia, Trump instead talked about Zelensky’s poor poll ratings and said he wanted to recoup money the US had sent in aid to Ukraine.
Trump’s remarks were a “cold shower” for Ukraine’s supporters, wrote Oleh Pavlyuk, in a column for the popular news website Evropeiska Pravda. He added that Trump had destroyed the two main pillars of US foreign policy in Ukraine up to now: of ensuring prior coordination with Kyiv before any contact with the Kremlin, and insisting that Ukraine should decide itself when it would sue for peace.
On a crisp and sunny winter’s day in Kyiv on Thursday, the mood was dark. Serhii, a 39-year-old soldier who was on leave from the frontline, said he had little confidence in Trump to do a deal advantageous to Ukraine: “We saw how he was during his first presidency … Putin’s doormat,” he said. … “On the one hand I’m against negotiations because everyone understands that this bastard [Putin] will attack again in a couple of years, unless he dies,” said Serhii. “On the other hand, we do have to negotiate, but on Ukraine’s terms. Otherwise, what was I fighting for? What did the guys die for? Why are civilians dying in missile attacks?”
“Here’s something else you should grasp: Our adversaries understand this perfectly, as do our allies (to the extent we still have them). Just as we have a staff of psychiatrists at the CIA who profile foreign leaders, so do they. Theirs are not constrained by the Goldwater Rule. Every foreign leader who speaks to Trump has received a report from their intelligence services explaining, just as I am here, that he suffers from a very severe personality disorder—but the good news, at least, is that this makes him easy to manipulate. Did you see what Canada and Mexico just did? They’ve read those reports. They told him he won, praised him for his astonishing strength, didn’t bend an inch, told him they were bending a mile, and God help us, he lapped it up. It’s like throwing a blanket over a budgie cage. He got rolled by the Taliban at Doha. He’ll be rolled by Russia. He’ll be rolled by Iran. Don’t kid yourself that he knows how to make a deal—he doesn’t.”
I don't need time to sort out my thoughts on this so much as I need time to go off and vomit repeatedly about it. From the moment he won the election, we all knew Trump would betray Ukraine like this. Of course, we (or at least I) did make some feeble attempt to believe that somehow he might not do it, but of course he did.
I don't need time to sort out my thoughts on this so much as I need time to go off and vomit repeatedly about it. From the moment he won the election, we all knew Trump would betray Ukraine like this. Of course, we (or at least I) did make some feeble attempt to believe that somehow he might not do it, but of course he did.
Putin is laughing up his sleeve. All his meddling in our elections on Trump’s behalf have finally paid off.